Last Instalment

I'm keen on this one too - is there any news on his recovery from injury?

I'm not convinced he is the best Irish noivce - Flemenstar and Sir des Champs both look top drawer and SDC has outstanding Cheltenham form. Timeform have SDC and F 7 lbs ahead on their ratings - but LI could well be better value at this point.

*Apologies, Timeform have them a stone ahead of LI. I confused First Luitenant and Last Instalment (not for the first time).

yes he has very progressive profile and looks a decent horse definatly in the mix  and a decent price to boot just the injury worry puts a slight doubt but if all is well then a nice bet to look forward to in the coming months ,regarding the injury has anyone looked on the trainers website ? may be news on there .good luck with it .

agree value but news needed first of his injury

It's minor.

Looked very very good last season.....however I'm always doubtful of horses coming back from injury

Absolutely but the injury (which is definitely nothing to worry about) is priced in.

yep,ive been nibblinbg away at 25 ish prices.
Really like this horse,got some real good up and coming horses opposing him,particularly his fellow Irish,but at the prices certainly worth a go i reckon.

If you could be certain that the injury was not a long term issue you its a big price. I came unstuck with Weapons Amnesty at 50 plus in a year where on paper the race was far better. I think even if he misses the GC next year this fellow is proper top class. The biggest bonus is that Davy Russel will ride it if it goes to the GC (Sir Des Chams is a Ryanair horse IMO) so you don't get wide boy O'Connel.

I think there could be some wishful thinking there. If LI misses this season through injury he's pretty unlikely to come back at a top level. Sir des Champs looks every inch a stayer and Gigginsrown have First Luitenant for the Ryaniar. I'd be really surprised if SdC does not run in the Gold Cup - he's also trained by a master and the best placer of horses around. He's not my kind of price at this stage but he looks the one to beat.

I agree about Weapons Amnesty - and it's a great shame he has been out for so long in his prime.

I'd say the ground will always be an issue with Last Instalment, he will be hard to beat in the Leopardstown races on soft or heavy ground but I'd be doubtful will he be venturing abroad in March

My understanding was that though his injury was fairly minor, the trainer was of the opinion that it was caused by the ground that day (even though it was officialy g to s) and that will always be the problem with Cheltenham for him.  The trainer is clear that he is a soft ground horse at his best and I think that thought in the back of his mind will always mean he just won't run on good ground. I agree he was the best novice for me last season, but especially with the plethora of options open to the owners as well, he is most likely to say in Ireland and hoover up all the good staying chases over there on ground that will almost always suit.

He's run in, and won, a G1 on officially good ground. In any case, don't Giggins pretty much tell their trainers where their horses will run, more so at least than is the case for "normal" owners? Plus, who knows what the ground will actually be in March? It's July now and it would be soft or slower if they ran today.

i love this horse,devours his fences and wouldnt be far away on anything but g2f ground

I don't think the ground is an issue - the horse has a fairly neutral action and plenty of speed. Has won on good ground. A bigger issue is the amount of quality that Gigginstown have meaning there could be clashes and avoidance of clashes. I firmly believe that this horse will be established as number 1 in the pecking order by March.

Where has this First Lieutenant for the Ryanair opinion come from? He was bought as a Gold Cup horse

Bluebird, I think there are a number of factors. FL was well beaten by Bobsworth with no apparent excuses in the RSA, and BW doesn't appear to be all that good (tough rather than classy). FL didn't appear to see out the trip in the RSA so may struggle with 2 f more in a Gold Cup. Gigginstown have a lot of options for the Gold Cup (especially First Luiet and Sir des Champs but possibly Quito de la Roque if it's a bog and Weapons Amnesty if he recovers). They may also want to have a good stab at the Ryanair since they sponsor the race but have never won it.

Sporting Life

Trainer Philip Fenton is looking forward to welcoming Last Instalment back into training on Saturday after the exciting gelding recovered from injury.

The seven-year-old is unbeaten in four starts over fences, winning Grade One prizes at Leopardstown last December and in February.

But after jarring tendons during his last victory in the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase, he was forced to miss the Cheltenham Festival and the remainder of the season.

"He's already done a lot of road-work and the plan is for him to come back to me on September 1 and start cantering," said Fenton.

"Let's hope the problem he had in the spring is behind him and hopefully, if all goes well, he'll be back on the track around Christmas time."

interesting i thought the horse had tendon trouble in both legs...got to be a long shot if the animal can return to his best and continue to progress...he did look a tool on soft...weaker irish races could be his for the taking on winter ground but you would have to see him race to consider putting a sheckle on him for cheltenham with the injuries he has had..

if he does return has to be a major doubt to run at cheltenham on better ground especially after jarring himself on it at leopardstown...good horse he looks although a risky betting opportunity all the same.

First will go for Gold imp,got no cover in Sun Alliance behind Bobs Worth,on decent ground no reason why it wont stay imo.

I really hope that FL goes for the Gold Cup, I've been following him since his first run over hurdles. All this Ryanair talk is putting me off investing again though

Stevo and Bluebird - what makes you both think he'll reverse form with Bobs Worth?

If you watch race again, Sun Alliance FL runs too free with some cover think he can reverse places. I like and backed Bobs Worth in same race not sure if he will even be stable no 1 or 2?

Also Stron FL was 4 times price of Bobs Worth on here,surely too big when only 12s in places.

Thanks Stevo, I should take another look at the RSA. I did wonder at the time if FL would have benefitted from a race before the RSA (for fitness). I know trainer can get them ready but it seems to make a bigger difference with novices and maybe if he ran free he might have settled better off a recent run.

BobsW may be the stable no. 4 or 5 with Long Run, Riverside Theatre, Finian's Rainbow and Burton Port around - but even so he's bound to run in the Gold Cup because Cheltenham suits him down to the ground and he's got such good Festival form. I also think the extra 2 f will suit him. All that said, I won't be rushing to back him for the Gold Cup as I think he'll be beaten by something classier. On the other hand, I think Gigginstown have at least two better staying chasers than FL.

Stron personally think only 2 of Hendersons have any real chance Long Run ( cost me big time last time ) and Bobs Worth given his great course form but like you not sure will be good enough? Gigginstown other 2 for me Last Instalment needs soft surface and returning from injury no bet at moment until seen.Sir Des Champs have backed at last 2 fesstivals, but is way too short on what he has beaten so far imo,but maybe the one open to most improvement as travelled like a dream in Jewson,and has course form in book big positive. Remember FL beat Rock On Ruby at previous festival form worked out quite well.Cant wait for the decent animals to come out.

I agree about the price of SDC but he's also the one to beat at the moment imo. Wonderful Cheltenham/Festival form and with a great trainer - but your're right, on the book he does need to step up a level.

Saying BobsWorth might be Hendo's number 3/4/5 - I don't think that's really the case - realistically he's probably #1 or #2 behind Long Run - but it might appear to be. He looks one of those horses who is much better at Cheltenham than anywhere else, so his form may not look great if he gets beaten at Haydock/Newbury/Ascot etc before the Festival.

I'm thinking along similar lines as Stront. The only reason I haven't backed Bobs Worth yet is he didn't show his best until the RSA so I'm hopeful of a better price if he takes a while to find form again. I also got 10/1 on SDC in March which while not great right now could look pretty good come March.

Prefer Last Instalment to FL, but have some major concerns, he needs to prove he is fully recovered, and I'm not convinced he'll even turn up at Cheltenham unless we get some really bad weather. Plus they have SDC, FL, Flemenstar and possibly even Weapons Amnesty so I think it's more than likely Last Instalment will be left at home next March.

If Last Instalment recovers,i can see him being a major Gold Cup player.
He was a better horse than FL last season and is a proven stayer.
SDC and Flemenstar both have to prove the distance will be ok for them.
At current prices i would be looking at LI as the one for any bets this early.
The others make no appeal to me at their current odds.

RNL - Flemenstar isn't owned by Gigginstown unless he was sold recently.

You're right, not sure if I confused him with Bog Warrior. Not because Bog warrior is comparable, but because at the end of last season there seemed to be any number of Gigginstown horses being lined up for this years GC. There certainly seemed to be more than I've listed anyway.

Indeed - Bog Warrior and Quito de la Roque are others in principle (though probably not in reality).

I'd add it's possible Gigginstown might make a serious challenge for the Ryaniar this year with one or two of them (given such a wealth of talent). They effectively sponsor it but they've never won it.

Actually now you mention him it was probably QDLR I was thinking of. I was quite disappointed with him last season in the end, and as you say he's probably not good enough

Out for the season again

Last Instalment was my biggest AP bet this year, when he was 50/1 e/w straight after last year's festival.  However, I've virtually lost all hope on him for this race now.

Whatever people say about Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, I would have put Last Instalment as the top Irish Novice staying chaser last year.  Ran a quicker time than Synchronised over the same C&D, on the same day as his Lexus win.  He comfortably had First Leiutenent held as well.

He may go for the Ryanair, but I wouldn't touch him in that.  I think he'd be hopelessly outpaced.  Despite winning over 2.5, he is a proper stayer to me, and he should go Gold Cup and FL Ryanair.

If he even comes over at all, it will be difficult to win any race with such an interupted prep.  I was told his injury last year wasn't particularly serious, but would never have backed him if I'd known he'd still be out now.

....You win some, you lose some.

bad luck li backers ,happens to us all wellchief ive had 3-4 nonners for the festival so far and will probably suffer a few more yet, this one reminds me of weapons amnesty, very similar !