Cheltenham Festival
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25 Jun 12
10:57
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Date Joined:
12 Mar 12
Couldnt see a thread on this one, Zarkander seems the obvious choice for me, stormed up the hill as a 5 year old with an interrupted preparation, going to be a big player next year... Spirit Son if you can risk the fact he has had injury problems also seems big value...
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Isn't there a suggestion that Zarkander is going to over further? He looks to need more than 2 m now (as is often the case for top Juvenile hurdlers). Spirit Son remains an uber-hype horse whose reputation far outshines his achievement.
If I had to pick the winner now (dangerous  ) it would be Grandouet. I've a feeling missing this year and another season on his back will do him good in the long run. That assumes Simonsig goes chasing as it would be his for the taking. |
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So many unknowns at the moment.
> The Fly has questions to answer (and we probably won't find out the answer until March 2013) > Was RoR's win a one off > Can Spirit Son and Grandouet recover from injury > Will the form of the Supreme work out > Are Overturn, Oscar and Darlan going chasing? > Surely none of the Triumph horses will be good enough I backed Spirit Son a while ago at 20's, but looking at the book now, I wouldn't go near any of them. |
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dont forget Bino,better ride and a clean jump at the last he would have gone close again.
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Simonsig would eat this lot if Henderson kept him over hurdles. Sadly seems like they are going chasing.
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oscar whisky i fancy but not sure if there going chaseing with him
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It wouldn't surprise me if this was between the Henderson pair of Spirit Son and Grandouet. There's enough question marks about the former at present so I'm siding with the latter. Nice profile and looked as though he'd strengthen up and improve further with another year on his back.
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Henderson has an embarrassment of riches here with potentially Darlan,Grandouet,Binocular,Oscar whiskey,spirit son and Simonsig(prob chasing)
He's greatest challenge could be keeping all of his high profile owners sweet.It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Finians Rainbow-Ok 3m king george might suit but I am sure Michael Buckley will want him to run in the Queen Mother(SS) and not the Ryanair come March. I would love to see Spirit son come back and fulfill the potential, he showed in that aintree novice hurdle-awesome that day. |
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Potentially any or all of Darlan, Bino, OW and Simonsig might go chasing which would relieve some of that pressure. Presumably if Finians Rainbow shows up well in the King George he'd had for the Gold Cup (for which the KG is by far the best trial).
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Darlan and Bino will be Hurdling,be amazed if they aint,other 2 chasing.
Also be amazed should Finians figure over 3m,QM or Ryanair imo. Youn think he will stay 3m Stront?? |
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Budd, I honestly don't know. He stayed the easy 2 1/2 m at aintree well enough. I think they'll try him for the King George and if he does well it's then logical to go for the Gold Cup (and to bring him back in trip if he doesn't stay/figure). It's a try it and see case for me. There is a thread on here where one or to people argue strongly they think he'll stay.
I agree with dj that if he's a non-stayer the QMCC might be the owner's preferred target next year (rather than the Ryanair), but if Sprinter is as good as everyone hopes/thinks that could look foolish. I expect you're right about Darlan spending another season over hurdles. I'm less sure about Bino - surely he's done everything he's going to as a hurdler and there's little to lose trying him over fences? The alternative is trying to pick up weak G1 and G2 hurdles with him, which seems like a wasted opportunity. He might win things like the Kingwell, the Elite or even the Christmas Hurlde - but he seems to have virtually no chance at Championship level any more. |
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stront and budd ,i have put on the finians gold cup thread that m.buckley is keen on finians going over 3 m and that they thought he could be a stayer earlier in his career . have looked at his breeding and his sire tiraaz was a strong stayer on the flat in france and won the prix gladiateur over 2miles and was 2nd in the prix du cadran over 2.4 miles and his dam trinity gale is from the family of strong gale so a good bit of stamina in the blood and although thats not a guarantee that he will stay he must have a decent chance of getting at least 3 miles and udoubtedly has the class officially rated 173 ...not many higher rated chasers than him .
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Simply 1 horse for me to watch out for in the Champion Hurdle next year and that is Grumeti. Very unlucky in the Triumph this year and i was totally opposed to him as i liked Pearl Swan. Zarkandar will surely go World Hurdle route. His running style doesn't suit the old track and won the JCB as it is on the new track and almost a furlong longer.
Darlan could be absolutely anything hurdling, Simonsig will go for the Arkle, i will eat my hat if he doesn't. Champion Chase, may as well give to Sprinter Sacre now, take the 5/4 on offer now. Will go off 3/10 on the day. |
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^^^ not factored in injury with the 3/10 prediction
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5/4 nrnb on SS is a great price, as your not getting the nrnb angle its not! I love Grumeti, just not sure if he has the class to win a Champion Hurdle
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I agree bluebird, and (for fear of restarting an ancient discussion) it's a race where 5 yos who are inexperienced tend to struggle. His flat rating suggests he'd have to improve out of sight next seaon over hurdles to figure in the Champion Hurdle (though he looks a better hurdler than flat horse). He could be in for a tough year as his hurdle rating seems too high to be competetive in the top handicaps.
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Lads,
i guess if the owner wants a GC horse and thinks FR could well stay,then they have to give it a go. its interesting that when i went to the open day,i had a chat with NH about finians,and i was suggesting that his owner would like to defend his QM crown,and he agreed with me,but then went on to say..but we have Sprinter Sacre, and a lot would depend on Barry Geraghty's thinking. Not once did he mention a possible step up in trip apart from saying the Ryanair,to which i replied..what a QM winner running in the following Ryanair- he found that amusing and kind of shrugged his shoulders. He certainly never mentioned GC ambitions,but of course we all know that things change in this game and we aint always goona know their thoughts!! FWIW,ive always been rather sceptical about 2 milers stepping up to the GC trip,so i guess i will always have reservations abot horses doing that. Be very interesting as to how they campaign Finians - very intriguing. |
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Intriguing I agree Budd. Hendo's comments/reactions are interesting there, but he does like to play his cards close to his chest. My guess is they'll try a race and see if he stays - if he doesn't there's nothing lost and he can come back in trip. That should be fine now the horse settles over 2 m (and it didn't do Sizing Europe any harm). There are some early season options - the Charlie Hall, the Betfair or even the Hennessey would be reasonable trials with a possible tilt at the King George in mind, leaving plenty of time for a 2-2 1/2 m campaign if necessary.
The comment about BJG is very interesting in the light of his previous alleged "issues" with Buckley horses. In many ways where the Henderson horses run will be one of the big stories/themes of the season. |
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Finnians was a horse nearly all of us called wrong last season - wouldnt stay 2 miles properly and ends up hosing up at the festival and aintrre over further. Didnt look like he was stoppinto me either
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Quite.
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Must admit my thoughts after the open day was that if BG chose to ride SS in preference to FR,then FR would not be likely to run against SS-anywhere.
So for me it was QM or Ryanair,but of course as has been pointed out,that was before FR sluiced up at Aintree!! Think you are right Stront,he will be tried over further and see what happens,kind of makes sense really. Back to the Churdle,personally i would give Bino another crack at it,im convinced he would have been very close to winning and maybe even have won,if he was ridden closer to ROR than he was. And im pretty sure Hendo has been quoted as saying that Bino would never go chasing? Correct me if im wrong lads- im sure you will!! |
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I hadn't heard that and it's not really up to him, but it sounds credible.
You do love your Hendo hurdlers don't you  |
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Seems that way dont it
 Had a soft spot for Zaynar,Bino and Oscar Whisky over the last few years,thats for sure.i guess cos i see them every year at the open day,although none of them has won me that much!! |
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Im confused as this years race won by ROR seemed to me a no excuses event but after RORs performance at Aintree...........well,so for what its worth I wouldnt be surprised if any of the established top rank hurdlers prevailed as there would appear (as yet)not to be a outstanding horse in this division(the fly beaten fair and square)so I for one will concentrate on the younger horses with Spirit Son and Grandouet(backed accordingly) being my 2 against the field if they come back 100%(granted a very BIG if).
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Many horses dont perform at Aintree after winning at the festival,so that would not put me off ROR,who imo was very impressive at Cheltenham,up there all the way and quickening well at the end.
Would certainly agree re Spirit Son and Grandouet,both are big contenders should they come back to fitness. It does look an open year at the moment,should be fun trying to work it out!! but the clues will be there throughout the season. |
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it would be interesting to know what the stats are for horses coming back from injury and performing to a level of say a few pounds to thier best pre injury , say for instance horses who have been off for a year or longer ,i wonder how many are ever the same again?
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Now this would be a Champion Hurdle comeback "Frankie Dettori to carry the Olympic Torch on the back of Monsignor round Ascot Racecourse next Tuesday".
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That's a good question Foyles. Some are (Kauto Star!) but many aren't. That's an issue I think for Spirit Son, but all the reports of Grandouet's injury were that it was minor, but it came at the worst possible time re the Festival.
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yeh good question,and without knowing for sure,i would be pretty confident that the stats would not favour them coming back as good as they were.
Would be a real shame if Spirit Son is not able to fulfill his obvious promise,and as Stront says Grandouet has a fair chance of showing us what he can do at the top level. |
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Was anybody impressed with Rebel Fitz today? Yes I know he was odds on, but he's won doing handstands and looks a big improver. On the downside he will be 8 come the festival.
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I thought they were going to go Novice Chasing with Rebel Fitz but wouldn't be the first time that minds change. Any comments from Winters after the race today?
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Just read the article on attheraces website. Graded Hurdle at Tipperary next then a decision on hurdling or chasing. I've been impressed and he could develop as one to chase after the fly this winter
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Simonsig wins the Champion Hurdle easily
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Been a serious move for Simonsig the last 2 weeks, strongest horse in the race 25 down to around 12 now
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I told you on June 25th Simonsig wins the Champion
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Interesting that Nicholls was so certain to stick 2 miles with Zarkandar in the recent table tour, and that he will likely start in the International at Cheltenham. Whilst they wouldn't take on Big Bucks, maybe they are confident on turning around form with ROR. With one eye on the 102F who's going to be around to mop some of the decent 2 1/2 mile races? Assuming Oscar Whisky and Overturn go over fences does that leave the races for ROR before back to 2m for Champion, or a top handicapper like Get Me Out of Here?
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Personally like to see OW stay hurdling,in hindsight he may well have won the CH,and imo would stand a great chance next March.
Trainer did tell me he was going chasing at the open day,along with Simonsig,and he said they would be kept apart. Simonsig the Arkle,OW the Jewson?? Keeping a close eye on how these 2 fare over fences. |
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If Simonsig stays over hurdles then you need look no further for the winner of the Champion Hurdle although i fear Nicky has other ideas.
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agree the farmer, would be a huge waste to go over hurdles with him
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*over fences FFS
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