Cheltenham Festival
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have always thought that this horse needed a trip in excess of 2 miles to show his best and i think he could have a serious chance in the gold cup if he gets the trip ,he was not stopping in the melling chase over 2.4 miles jumping well and easily beating a usefull field which included albertas run ,wishfull thinking, poquelin and forpadythe plasterer .
this was a very creditable performance considering it was only 4 weeks after he had a hard race in the queen mother champion chase beating sizing euro in a ding dong battle up the cheltenham hill.
the stable also has at least 2 other possible gold cup contenders in rsa winner bobs worth and former champ long run plus riverside theartre could also be in the mix but at the prices on here finians rainbow still a bit of 70s to win and 18s to place he could be a good value option i am on at the 70s win and 18.5 to place and imo opinion that is way to big for a proven class horse currently officially rated 173 .
connections have hinted strongly that he will be stepped up in trip and i think the gold cup must be on owner micheal buckleys mind .its a natural step to want a gold cup contender , barry gehraghty gets on well with this horse and there must be a fair chance he would ride it in his races next season especially if the owners spirit son recovers from his setback ,anyway it would leave bjg an interesting dilema as to who he would ride in the gold cup if bobs worth ,finians ,and riverside theartre all made the gig .
the biggest question is will finians rainbow stay the gold cup trip he is a strong traveller and exellent jumper ,well connections earlier in this season were talking gold cup but decided stick to the 2 mile route but a good few gold cup winners who started out at 2 miles ,kauto ,war of attrition ,and kicking king to name a few so that gives a bit of encouragement .
have read on here that bobs worth will be the hendo gold cup horse he could be but not many rsa winners go on to win the gold cup for some reason and he is currently trading at around 10-12 s at the prices i would rather be with finians . anyway the 70s or even 60s on here is huge imo for a high class animal rated 173 and should be taken . good luck .as always input and insight welcolm
this was a very creditable performance considering it was only 4 weeks after he had a hard race in the queen mother champion chase beating sizing euro in a ding dong battle up the cheltenham hill.
the stable also has at least 2 other possible gold cup contenders in rsa winner bobs worth and former champ long run plus riverside theartre could also be in the mix but at the prices on here finians rainbow still a bit of 70s to win and 18s to place he could be a good value option i am on at the 70s win and 18.5 to place and imo opinion that is way to big for a proven class horse currently officially rated 173 .
connections have hinted strongly that he will be stepped up in trip and i think the gold cup must be on owner micheal buckleys mind .its a natural step to want a gold cup contender , barry gehraghty gets on well with this horse and there must be a fair chance he would ride it in his races next season especially if the owners spirit son recovers from his setback ,anyway it would leave bjg an interesting dilema as to who he would ride in the gold cup if bobs worth ,finians ,and riverside theartre all made the gig .
the biggest question is will finians rainbow stay the gold cup trip he is a strong traveller and exellent jumper ,well connections earlier in this season were talking gold cup but decided stick to the 2 mile route but a good few gold cup winners who started out at 2 miles ,kauto ,war of attrition ,and kicking king to name a few so that gives a bit of encouragement .
have read on here that bobs worth will be the hendo gold cup horse he could be but not many rsa winners go on to win the gold cup for some reason and he is currently trading at around 10-12 s at the prices i would rather be with finians . anyway the 70s or even 60s on here is huge imo for a high class animal rated 173 and should be taken . good luck .as always input and insight welcolm
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70s all gone on here 60s now, still too big imo.
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Interesting Foyles.
When he won his bumper and first novice I thought he was a stayer. Then in the Challow and Neptune he ran like a non-stayer (though his Neptune prep I think was over 2m3 from memory (though it was a bad race)). In his novice chase yr he looked like a pure two miler. This yr he seemed to want to go further (as many horses do, as they get older). I guess I do tend to pigeon hole horses too quickly but they do make fools of us! I am sure the owner would prefer the prestige of the CGC over the Ryanair but i wonder if the trainer would agree given (at this stage) he appears to have Riverside and Bob's for it (plus L Run, though SWC rides him). The trainer does not appear to have an obvious (at this stage) Ryanair horse. I suspect the trainer may think BW and RT would are more suited to the CGC stamina test than FR. I also suspect BJG would be hard to convince to get off Bob's (assuming he gets there without disappointing), given his love of the place and track form. This may be a factor for connections. All of this said, the horse is not getting younger. He will be 10 next yr and though he has fewer miles on the clock than most, waiting to 11 to run in the CGC may be leaving it too late. This may be a consideration. I have no doubt he will be stepped up at the start of next yr. Trainer suggests that the horse has settled down now he is older so will stay more readily (as Aintree seemed to prove). I suspect they will run at Ascot and then the King George before making a Festival decision. I personally fear his stamina may be exposed but no mistaking for me this is a top draw animal, few better looking exist in training (or anywhere). Good luck Foyles. |
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RC, that's an excellent summary. The main consideration for me is that Henderson has several stayers (the 3 you mention plus Burton Port) but not too much in the middle distance divison. It's also a big jump from 2 1/2 m round Aintree to 3 m 2 1/2 f round Cheltenham. All that said, I expect him to be aimed at the King George and if he places a Gold Cup run could become likely. I also agree with you that 2013 is the year if it's ever going to happen.
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yeah good points rc , may be wide of the mark here but remembering the situation with spirit son and sprinter sacre in the supreme think bjg was opting for sprinter and it was hinted that if he wanted to ride the owners other horses (finians ,spirit river ect,then it would be in his best interests to ride spirit son, ap was on sprinter sacre ,
if finians proved he gets at least 3 miles in one of the trials (king george ect, ) then i think bjg would find it difficult to desert this fella ,anyway all hypothetical as things stand and anything can happen in this game ,but he is a very high class horse who travels and jumps and can go toe to toe in a battle and 70s or even 60s is a bit of an insult for one of his ability . was impressed by the way he travelled and how much daylight him and wishfull thinking pulled away from albertas poquelin and co over 2.4 miles in the melling at aintree . |
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I love this horse, and have for many seasons now.
I have always thought, and still do, that he is a top-notch two-miler and doesn't want to go further. Obviously, Sprinter Sacre might scare connections into pushing it, but if he was mine I would be aiming him at a defense of his Champion Chase. |
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Foyles, if Geraghty has to choose between Finains, Riverside and Bobs worth he's going to find it very hard, especially given his personal connection to BW. I imagine he'd also ride RT in the King george as a flat, right handed track is perfect for that horse.
Finians is only 7 for the QMCC - that could be telling from a yard where the money often appears to talk? Has anyone priced up the Ryanair yet? |
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they have said they will step him up ! connections will probably keep options open as the unexpected can and does happen, a similar situation for bjg could arise in the champion hurdle what with spirit son and grandouet . but there are worse bets at the prices than finians imo.
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I took that to mean they'd step him up to the Ryanaor trip not the Gold Cup.
I take your point about the riding arrangements but with so many great horses in the yard does Buckley have as much influence now? In any case, is that story actually true? If it is, it was disgraceful behaviour. |
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could be they mean the ryanaire but if he does get the trip in the king george (assuming its on the agenda ) and a few have to prove they get the gold cup trip including the fav, they would surely find it hard not to go the gold cup route .point is at 70s i havent had to put too much on to win big and happy to take the chance . all about opinions tho.
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Totally fair enough. Like with a lot of horses (e.g. Imperial Commander, Weapons Amnesty, Kauto Star) you'll be sitting on a nice bet if he does show up in the Gold Cup. Good luck.
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Personally think Bobsworth will be his main runner in the GC with Long Run and Burton Port as his other likely runners.
Cannot see RT or FR staying well enough to contest the Gold Cup. If they were mine i would skip Chelt with RT - think they got away with it in the Ryanair and would be pushing their luck running him there again. FR i would campaign him at 2 - 2m4f,and decide nearer the time about his Chelt race(QM or Ryan),maybe depending on how good SS is next season. |
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morning bud, yeah you may be right on finians over the trip and we wont know for sure untill he has tried it ,could be they will keep him at around 2 -2.4 miles ,bobs worth and long run look thier main gold cup horses regarding trip /stamina but much as i admire bobs worth the thing that bothers me is the record of rsa winners ,for some reason very few progress as expected the following season ,must be a punishing race for the novices seems you have to be exeptional (denman ) to go on and progress from that race ,bobs worth may be able to buck the trend and a bet on him could reward ,but i would be looking for a bit bigger than the 10s on here .
just trying to find a few big price value options for the race . |
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He may well turn up in the Gold Cup, you never know. It's the one race where a trainer doesn't mind having lots of runners. Personally I think he'll end up in the Ryanair.
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finian,s owner micheal buckley on atr today hopefully he will give some clues as to plans for finians .
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And nowt wrong with that Foyles,theirs value out there for sure,just hard finding it and getting a run next March!!
i wish you well,its what i try and do as well mate. |
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owner michael buckley has said on atr today finians is looking like a stayer and they thought he was a stayer earlier in his career and in his mind he would take in 1 of 3 races this year either the peterborogh chase ,the 2.4 mile chase at ascot same day as the betfair ,or the betfair then the king george ,if he were to win the king george then that would make your mind up for you regarding the gold cup . but if he dont stay then back to 2-2.4 miles .
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I guess thats fair enough,if they want to find out for sure how far he stays,he may surprise me.
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cheers bud yes no harm having a few at decent prices running for you early ,and know you are keen on al ferof i was with him in the arkle and have not written him off ,depending what connections plans are ,i expect them to step him up in trip next season and he could well emerge as a gold cup prospect as i am sure you are well aware ,and will be looking at reruns of his races and se if theres an angle in his price on here .good luck with yours .
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by the way bud regarding al ferof gold cup , there is a little bit of 85s on here at the moment !
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yeh,its a big price and one i dont mind taking to find out if he stays.
He needs to be ridden differently than his last 2 races to get the best of him i feel. Ride him off the pace and use his strength in the finish that he obviously has,at whatever distance ends up being his optimum. |
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took a bit of it myself earlier !
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It is in my mind that FR may just not quite be stamina laden enough for the CGC but that is only at this stage. As i say above, I imagine Buckley would like him to run in it but that would create probelms for the jockey. I am sure FR would love the Ascot race and I think the K George would be interesting with him in it. You have a cracking bet going Foyles. As I say, if prizes were given for looks, FR woudl be unbeaten, he is the model steeple chaser IMO.
Regarding GC runners, all things being equal, at this stage you would think LR, BW and (as Strontium rightly says) B Port look certs. I feel sure R Theatre will stay and will run too (he looks a slogger with class to me; i imagine he will only have 2 runs, KG and CGC) though i am not sure he would be good enough. I think the KG will decide FR's targets. |
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Well be it in their heads if they do run RT in the GC.For me the Ryanair should serve as a warning that he dont like the place,and he won despite that.
An extra 5 or 6 furlong in a competitive race like the GC Is asking for problems imo. |
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on their heads
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Agree with you entirely Foyles, I was very taken with the way in which he won the Melling. 70's has to be too big and although the Ryanair route is probably the most likely path for him with Sacre scaring everything off in the QM, Buckley's comments today re the King George give a certain amount of encouragement about the possibility of a staying chase campaign. Even if Finians lines up in the KG, his GC price should contract enough so you can lay off some of the initial stake, so personally I believe it is well worth a speculative punt with the hope that this is the plan. Lovely horse and would love to see his colours pass the post first in the GC (and CH) next year.
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Still think he is a rattling good two-miler, and he doesn't want more than two miles. Connections can be - and often are - wrong about horses and I think they were always wrong with this lad. Even before the QM they were talking as though he wouldn't be good enough to beat Sizing Europe and was given entries in the longer races as they "thought" he was a stayer. There's no single piece of form in his whole career that suggests he will be better at further than two miles!
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yes tom ,cant be sure untill they have tried the trip ,and the king george will tell us that !i have no doubt he is classy enough just the trip is the doubt ,but hendo and the owner have said he is more relaxed this season and the melling over 2.4 miles was a good performance ,his pedigree is tiraaz- trinity gale (strong gale )dont know much about the stamina index for tiraaz although the strong gale line offers a bit of hope .
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36 on here now
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You market mover
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 stront . |
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After last years Arkle run, I didn't think Finians stayed 1m4f let alone well enough to win a Melling! Been proven to be very wrong on that one
I expect him to run in the King George (and place) and then come back for the Ryanair. I remember when Riverside Theatre placed in the King George, I was sitting on a massive price for the Gold Cup, but they came out and said straight away that his plan was definitely the Ryanair (although he got injured shortly after). I think Henderson will want to put him in the race that he thinks he's got the best chance of winning; and I think he's got a much better chance of winning the Ryanair than a Gold Cup. The Ryanair has now turned into a top class race in it's own right, so I see no reason why they wouldn't go for it. I've been gunning for Riverside Theatre to go down the Gold Cup route for the last couple of years, but I wouldn't be too keen on him now. If he were mine I'd go Old Roan > King George > Betfair Ascot Chase > Betfair Bowl. |
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WC - I think they said after Aintree it would be KG > CGC. I think they said 'mad fresh' is the key.
I like this plan personally (I like your plan too but the lure of the Festival will be unavoidable IMO). FTO record is exceptional. I am not sure i buy the argument he hates Cheltenham. Everything that could go wrong in the Ryan Air did. This horse increasingly looks like a stayer to me, though whther good enough for the CGC, who knows. |
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Well we have to differ on this one RC,cos imo not only does the horse hate Cheltenham,he dont stay either.
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I mean he won the Ryanair,christ knows how as he did not act at all on the track,and to be honest in the KG he looked to me a non stayer,so just cannot see him anywhere near a finish of a Gold Cup.
I really think if they were to run him in the Gold Cup,that could well be the end of him as a good racehorse. |
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Morning
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Morning
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Morning
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Morning
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Sorry about the mess above, PC issues. Budd I will get back to you when they are resolved.
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