RSA

aug sept

If the trend of the last 2 years continues, I would want to see a horse run over fences before backing it for any of the Festival novice chases. Of the long list of potential novice chasers mentioned as future stars last September, less than half even ran over fences, never mind won anything significant. The average number of runners in novice chases in GB was around 5 or 6 and apart from Sanctuaire who didn't run at Cheltenham, Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Menorah, the 2 mile novices were a very poor bunch. The RSA did manage to attract 9 runners but apart from Bobs Worth and perhaps Grand Cru, I can't see a Gold Cup contender among them.

ona flip side of the above comment. The RSA (1,2,4th paced horses) were the first three in the betting last August.

Spriter Sacre was 3rd fav for the arkle!!!

I'm not a huge gambler, just a fifty quid player, i just really enjoy the challenge of watching the top hurdlers and the ones just below trying the  bigger obstacles.I know its a bit of guess work as well, unless your in the know about its schooling but its the races i really look forward to the following year. Last year i backed Grand Crus @ 6/1 and Walkon @ 130/1, although neither won i got a nice profit from them, already got my two for this year.

Whos your two for the year?
I emailed Betfair last week and they said RSA,Arkle etc market would be up in September

Anyone want to lay ambion wood @40 for a pony.

i've put £200 on al ferof #certainty

Am i missing something here , one of the easiest winners at last years festival was Simonsig.What horse beat him easily at Sandown previously and promises to be even better over further than 2m5f and also had chaser stamped all over him.

Trainer says he potentially best horse he ever had and but for small injury prevented him from going to Cheltenham would of been a well backed winning fav in whichever race they aimed.

FINGAL BAY is the horse and will win the RSA with ease.

Only horse possibly might go with him is Boston Bob, but if Fingals turns up i believe they racing for second place even at this tentative early stage.

Has to be a doubt as to whether Fingal Bay will be as good over fences.

He looked regressive to me through last season so doubts in my mind, but I take VoR's point - IF he's as good over fences, IF he comes back fully from his injury, IF he hasn't lost his sprak, he will be a player.

*spark

Voice of Reason

Yes u are missing his Aintree run,beaten by Lovecen who was beaten 20 lengths in Albert Bartlett.

I agree with Strontium,looked regressive tho he did have a setback.

Look at Philip Hobbs high profile horses over last couple of years,similar pattern-Captain Chris,Menorah,Planet of sound,wishful thinking etc.

Boston Bob is a deserved fav imo, a race Mullins has won 3 times previously and he certainly looked a chaser,hopefully not running at Aintree/punchestown will stand to him.

DJ - i took that into consideration,connections went there as after thought to Cheltenham and had owners to please no doubt, this fellow is all about stamina and Aintree suits speedier types.

He is a proper national hunt horse imo, and when he goes on a galloping/undulating track with cut in ground watch him go.Cheltenham tailor made for him as is RSA trip and i am excited by him similar to Bobs Worth last season , a proper stayer and will grind them into floor like he did Simonsig coming round bend with stiff up hill finish in front of them.

A very good horse,VOR.Would have won at Aintree if he hadn't almost come down at halfway.Your comment about cut in the ground would be the worry for me from an ante post point of view.The ground on the Wednesday is more likely to be on the faster side.
He is certainly built for chasing so I see no reason why he won't be even better over fences than hurdles.

Boston bob at the moment is not on my list,to my eye he seems to lack tactical speed and was being driven in the AB a long way from home and never reeled in the game and ill fated Brindisi Breeze. However if it came up softish in March(highly unlikely)he may enter calculations,but not for me as said above this one has National(Welsh this year perhaps) written all over him and in conclusion BB seems a bit of a slowboat and will be avoided by me at top level novice company.

Obviously meant next years Welsh National.

chelters16:-

BB ran a blinder in the AB. I think the perception he was disapointing was because he was a short priced favourite and didn't win. He was the only one to come from the back, the 1st, 3rd and 4th were prominent throughout. Hurdles and fences are completly different games...BB looks to be crying out for fences.

Sir Des Champs looked to have no tactical speed in the MP, only getting up close home, running as if he needed 3 miles. However over the same trip he was fine in the Jewson. Difference being he was much more comfortable over fences than hurdles, and was losing ground over his hurdles but making ground over his fences. I think BB will be the same. Denman didn't have 'tactical speed' over hurdles either.

Some poor hurdlers have won the RSA in recent years so while it's sensible to look at decent novice hurdlers at this stage others will emerge in staying novice chases over the winter.

2004    Rule Supreme    8    David Casey    Willie Mullins 150 odd over hurdles

2005    Trabolgan    7    Mick Fitzgerald    Nicky Henderson 120
2006    Star de Mohaison    5    Barry Geraghty    Paul Nicholls 123
2007    Denman    7    Ruby Walsh    Paul Nicholls 165
2008    Albertas Run    7    Tony McCoy    Jonjo O'Neill 136
2009    Cooldine    7    Ruby Walsh    Willie Mullins Mid 130s?
2010    Weapon's Amnesty    7    Davy Russell    Charles Byrnes 147
2011    Bostons Angel    7    Robbie Power    Jessica Harrington 140
2012    Bobs Worth    7    Barry Geraghty    Nicky Henderson 152


Not the worst thing to look for a fairly decent hurdler imo

Even though 5 of the 9 you list were rather moderate? Obviously a decent hurdler can go on and win the RSA (Bobs worth, Denman), but the race is often won by a horse who was a poor hurdler - so what I'm saying is don't make your shortlist yet!

Looking back at last years Albert Bartlett does anyone know the plan for Grand Vision and Mister Eickhart this season?

Grand Vision out for the season

meister eckhart with p.hobbs going n/chasing.come on the bluebirds

whats the plan for felix yonger?

I was going to ask the same Kwality; not sure if the Wylies will want him and Boston Bob over fences this season?

Anyone got any recent updates on Ambion,, tia.

Forget last post just seen it's entered up at wincanton on sat.

Was looking through the RSA betting today and theres really nothing that stands out at all

Back In Focus for me. Stays all day and whilst perhaps a little one-paced, looks quite well suited to a slog like this. Quite fancy an Irish winner this year.

I like Dynaste but am somewhat put off by the records of short priced favs in this race in recent years.

Seen it mentioned in various places about Back in Focus going for the 4miler?

Would be a waste if so IMO. Would imagine they'll wait to see if it comes up soft or not. RSA if lots of rain and 4 miler if not.