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Rock On Ruby's physique and pedigree suggest he is more about strength and stamina than Binocular whose turn of foot and tactical speed gave him a serious edge in a small field on fast ground around a tight track.
Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.
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Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.
ick
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BINOCULAR UP AGAINST IT IN BID FOR SECOND CHAMPION HURDLE
There was absolutely nothing wrong with the success of BINOCULAR (42) in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He jumped well and outkicked a top class rival to win narrowly in fast time.
However it has to be said that it's now been almost two years since Binocular's brilliant win in the 2010 Champion Hurdle and, for one reason or another, he has not quite been able to match the level of form he showed that day in his subsequent outings - whatever set of speed or handicap ratings you use. Indeed his official handicap rating has fallen eight pounds since his big win.
It could be that trainer Nicky Henderson will manage to get Binocular back to the same form he showed in the Spring of 2010. You can certainly argue that he's being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle and that this was a big step in the right direction.
My concern is that the stats for the big Cheltenham race suggest we should be wary of horses like Binocular.
In the last 23 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 13 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 13 reached the first three and only one ran better than eighth.
If the same proportion of Champion Hurdlers have attempted the feat in the entire history of the race then 45 bids to win again in non-consecutive years have been made for just a single success. This was by Comedy Of Errors in the 1975 Champion Hurdle.
Comedy Of Errors had run second in the 1974 Champion Hurdle. Binocular was forced to miss last year's event due to that strange episode with drugs used to clear up an infection still being in his system at the time.
You have to wonder just how well Binocular would have done in last year's Champion Hurdle if he'd lined up in light of his thirteen and nine length losses in his subsequent two starts at Aintree and Punchestown. Those poor efforts undermine any confidence supporters of the horse might feel as he warms up for his attempt on hurdling's biggest prize in 2012.
Watching the race it was hard not to feel that neck runner up ROCK ON RUBY (42) might well have got back up to beat Binocular if there had been an uphill finish as there will be at Cheltenham.
Rock On Ruby's physique and pedigree suggest he is more about strength and stamina than Binocular whose turn of foot and tactical speed gave him a serious edge in a small field on fast ground around a tight track.
Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.
FINGAL BAY CAN RUN FASTER
FINGAL BAY (38) kept his unbeaten record when winning the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury. But he idled rather badly after looking set to score by around six lengths, finally having just one length to spare at the line.
This run will surely give jockeys on future rivals of Fingal Bay ideas. They'll realise that the way to beat him is to let him kick clear then come with s sharp late burst while he's idling. No doubt we'll see this attempted sooner rather than later.
There's no question that Fingal Bay can run faster than this. But the runner up BALLYROCK (38) is still a very decent staying novice hurdler that has already won a point to point.
BOBS WORTH THE ONE TO BEAT IN RSA CHASE
One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all seventeen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while five Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.
You can get some sense of why this is so from watching the video of the latest renewal of the Feltham run over Christmas.
The winner GRANDS CRUS (42) has to rate as one of the best two winners in the history of the Feltham along with last year's victor Long Run. But it was obvious that it was his pace gave him the edge over the second and third at Kempton. Around the more testing Cheltenham it's easy to see how they could reverse placings with him as they were both staying on so well.
Grands Crus was able to make up ground quickly to take the lead seven fences out after settling behind the searching early pace. He kicked five lengths clear entering the straight and had enough in reserve to be eased up late to score by over two lengths.
I'm prepared to say Grands Crus had trouble adapting to fixed brush hurdles when he made that abortive trip to France in the Summer. He would have won the other nine times he's run beyond two and a half miles but for twice bumping into Big Buck's and finishing second.
I have a nagging feeling that Grands Crus is a bit light framed to like jumping fences in a big field. Maybe this is why he lost that race in France where he faced nine rivals over fixed brush hurdles (which are basically baby fences). But that is just a suspicion based on insufficient evidence. Right now he's looking like a top class horse that's remarkably versatile.
Runner up SILVINIACO CONTI (41) was clearly very well suited by the strong pace and the step up to two miles. This deep chested sort moved out of the pack travelling ominously well to look a serious threat to the winner with six to jump. However Grands Crus had the pace to open up a gap on him before Silviniaco Conti's stamina enabled him to start clawing back the deficit in the closing sages.
Horses as young as Silviniaco Conti don't have a great record in the RSA Chase. So it was understandable that trainer Paul Nicholls suggested he might well skip the Cheltenham Festival this season. With Denman retired, Master Minded's career in doubt and Kauto Star in the twilight of his career, Nicholls has to make sure he looks after what is an obvious future Gold Cup candidate.
TAKEN FROM HIS WEBSITE
There was absolutely nothing wrong with the success of BINOCULAR (42) in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He jumped well and outkicked a top class rival to win narrowly in fast time.
However it has to be said that it's now been almost two years since Binocular's brilliant win in the 2010 Champion Hurdle and, for one reason or another, he has not quite been able to match the level of form he showed that day in his subsequent outings - whatever set of speed or handicap ratings you use. Indeed his official handicap rating has fallen eight pounds since his big win.
It could be that trainer Nicky Henderson will manage to get Binocular back to the same form he showed in the Spring of 2010. You can certainly argue that he's being trained to peak for the Champion Hurdle and that this was a big step in the right direction.
My concern is that the stats for the big Cheltenham race suggest we should be wary of horses like Binocular.
In the last 23 runnings of the Champion Hurdle 13 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. None of the 13 reached the first three and only one ran better than eighth.
If the same proportion of Champion Hurdlers have attempted the feat in the entire history of the race then 45 bids to win again in non-consecutive years have been made for just a single success. This was by Comedy Of Errors in the 1975 Champion Hurdle.
Comedy Of Errors had run second in the 1974 Champion Hurdle. Binocular was forced to miss last year's event due to that strange episode with drugs used to clear up an infection still being in his system at the time.
You have to wonder just how well Binocular would have done in last year's Champion Hurdle if he'd lined up in light of his thirteen and nine length losses in his subsequent two starts at Aintree and Punchestown. Those poor efforts undermine any confidence supporters of the horse might feel as he warms up for his attempt on hurdling's biggest prize in 2012.
Watching the race it was hard not to feel that neck runner up ROCK ON RUBY (42) might well have got back up to beat Binocular if there had been an uphill finish as there will be at Cheltenham.
Rock On Ruby's physique and pedigree suggest he is more about strength and stamina than Binocular whose turn of foot and tactical speed gave him a serious edge in a small field on fast ground around a tight track.
Despite this Rock On Ruby has a fine record at the minimum hurdles distance. If the photo had gone his way here he would now have won all six times he's run 2 miles since his losing racecourse debut. I see him as one of the top candidates for the Champion Hurdle.
FINGAL BAY CAN RUN FASTER
FINGAL BAY (38) kept his unbeaten record when winning the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury. But he idled rather badly after looking set to score by around six lengths, finally having just one length to spare at the line.
This run will surely give jockeys on future rivals of Fingal Bay ideas. They'll realise that the way to beat him is to let him kick clear then come with s sharp late burst while he's idling. No doubt we'll see this attempted sooner rather than later.
There's no question that Fingal Bay can run faster than this. But the runner up BALLYROCK (38) is still a very decent staying novice hurdler that has already won a point to point.
BOBS WORTH THE ONE TO BEAT IN RSA CHASE
One of the most interesting stats in jump racing is that all seventeen winners of the Feltham Novices Chase that have gone on to run in the RSA Chase have lost while five Feltham losers have won the big Cheltenham race.
You can get some sense of why this is so from watching the video of the latest renewal of the Feltham run over Christmas.
The winner GRANDS CRUS (42) has to rate as one of the best two winners in the history of the Feltham along with last year's victor Long Run. But it was obvious that it was his pace gave him the edge over the second and third at Kempton. Around the more testing Cheltenham it's easy to see how they could reverse placings with him as they were both staying on so well.
Grands Crus was able to make up ground quickly to take the lead seven fences out after settling behind the searching early pace. He kicked five lengths clear entering the straight and had enough in reserve to be eased up late to score by over two lengths.
I'm prepared to say Grands Crus had trouble adapting to fixed brush hurdles when he made that abortive trip to France in the Summer. He would have won the other nine times he's run beyond two and a half miles but for twice bumping into Big Buck's and finishing second.
I have a nagging feeling that Grands Crus is a bit light framed to like jumping fences in a big field. Maybe this is why he lost that race in France where he faced nine rivals over fixed brush hurdles (which are basically baby fences). But that is just a suspicion based on insufficient evidence. Right now he's looking like a top class horse that's remarkably versatile.
Runner up SILVINIACO CONTI (41) was clearly very well suited by the strong pace and the step up to two miles. This deep chested sort moved out of the pack travelling ominously well to look a serious threat to the winner with six to jump. However Grands Crus had the pace to open up a gap on him before Silviniaco Conti's stamina enabled him to start clawing back the deficit in the closing sages.
Horses as young as Silviniaco Conti don't have a great record in the RSA Chase. So it was understandable that trainer Paul Nicholls suggested he might well skip the Cheltenham Festival this season. With Denman retired, Master Minded's career in doubt and Kauto Star in the twilight of his career, Nicholls has to make sure he looks after what is an obvious future Gold Cup candidate.
TAKEN FROM HIS WEBSITE
Teaforthree is a tall, old fashioned staying chasing sort. Back on a more galloping track, preferably on softer ground, he's capable of winning something decent.
FFS WISH ID READ THIS BEFORE THE FESTIVAL
FFS WISH ID READ THIS BEFORE THE FESTIVAL
Think you're being a bit selective in what you've posted - ie his scatter gun approach across his various platforms to various horses with 'big chances' in a race. Looking back at the Cheltenham Weekender he tipped the Fly for the churdle and Alfie Spinner for the Nathunt chase. Credit for Bobs Worth though, he always seemed very keen on that.
to be fair sintonian put rock on ruby up on here a few months before the race . blatent aftertiming i know but i was saying to a friend who fancied bino ,if you fancy bino then you have got to fancy ror at the prices only a head between them ,but hindsight ect! and no i didnt back ror for the champion !
my mistake sintonians thread on ror is on the ante post forum .
The best value from Nick Mordin is to open your mind to his way of thinking.
That's not the same as saying swallow uncritically everything he says as gospel because some of it is balls, but at least he tries to justify what he says and always puts some thought into it.
He can take entrenched views about horses despite all evidence to the contrary - it took him years to admit kauto Star may just be decent - but readers will get a deeper insight into the game reading his work with an open mind IMO.
That's not the same as saying swallow uncritically everything he says as gospel because some of it is balls, but at least he tries to justify what he says and always puts some thought into it.
He can take entrenched views about horses despite all evidence to the contrary - it took him years to admit kauto Star may just be decent - but readers will get a deeper insight into the game reading his work with an open mind IMO.
Mordin has some interesting ideas, agreed. But by his own admission, is he not from a marketing or advertising background, so you can expect plenty of creativity from him.
On the other hand, he also reveals he is completely clueless with numbers and admits he has plagiarised his time figure methodology from Beyer and others. In fact he undermines one of his main hooks as being a believer in speed figure by advocating that "weight is not important" and does not adjust his figures accordingly.
But you are right, he is a good read for the occasional gem, and should be open minded to his, and anyone else's, views
On the other hand, he also reveals he is completely clueless with numbers and admits he has plagiarised his time figure methodology from Beyer and others. In fact he undermines one of his main hooks as being a believer in speed figure by advocating that "weight is not important" and does not adjust his figures accordingly.
But you are right, he is a good read for the occasional gem, and should be open minded to his, and anyone else's, views
I like the fact he has a strong opinion, and often I will revisit a race if he has a strong view on a particular performance. Gave Flemenstar a rave review after his win in the Arkle at Leopardstown.
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