Cheltenham Festival
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Gigginstown seem to have acquired an embarrassment of riches in the staying chase division. They have, at least,
Quito de la Roque
Weapons Amnesty
First Lieutenant
Sir des Champs
Last Instalment
Bog Warrior
Assuming they are all fit, which do you think will run in the 2013 Gold Cup?
Quito de la Roque
Weapons Amnesty
First Lieutenant
Sir des Champs
Last Instalment
Bog Warrior
Assuming they are all fit, which do you think will run in the 2013 Gold Cup?
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Replies: 36
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The top one would need to improve a stone to win a gold cup.
The second hasnt run in 2 years  The 3rd looks a bit short but could improve The 4th and 5th look teh best shots. The bottom is nowhere near winning a gold cup imo. Looks a slow 2 and a half mile plodder on heavy ground. |
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Bog Warrior needs a bog.........
Quito needs 5 miles+ IMO....... Weapons Amnesty - in the words of The Three Degrees "When will I see you again"? First Lieutenant needs slight improvement...... Last Instalment a definite chance providing comes back from injury ok. Sir Des Champs looks class personified and is my idea of potential winner. |
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Looking at that list my eary thoughts would be:
Gold Cup - Sir Des Champs plus Last Instalment and Weapons Amnesty pending how they come back from their injuries (big, big ask for Weapons now you'd think) Ryanair - First Lieutenant Kept to soft ground races in Ireland - Quite de la Roque and Bog Warrior |
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I know Weapons Amnesty is now a long shot to come back (real shame) and some of the others are below the required class to win. But I'm interested in your opinions on which/how many would run if they are all fit.
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I think at least the most suitable candidate would be sent to the Ryanair. After that I don't see any reason why they wouldn't let as many run in the Gold Cup as had earnt their chance.
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One thing that has got me stumped and I would be interested in other people's opinions on is if they will send any over for the King George, and if so which ones were more likely?
Usually I would assume the Irish staying chasers would stay home for the Lexus but given the depth of the staying chasers Gigginstown own they may be tempted to throw one or two at Kempton |
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If they were all the same prices, I'd back Sir Des Champs narrowly in front of First Lieutenent and Last Instalment.
However, straight after the Jewson, Sir Des Champs was 7's-12's, First Lieutenent was around 16's and you could get 50's on Last Instalment. Had to have a go at Last Instalment at that price - it was ridiculous. Taking a risk because he is injured (I remember Weapons Amnesty was only "a slight knock" and that's turned to years off), and he's never ran at Cheltenham, but he was head and shoulders above the other novice staying chasers in Ireland last year. Would prefer him to be with a different trainer as well. I could make a good case for all of them except Quito tbh. |
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50s on Last Instalment is a real nice bet Wellchief.
I suppose they have good reason to send one or two decent ones to the Ryanair! Interesting thought about the KG Barnsey - it would seem out of character, and they'll probably have a couple for the Lexus, but as you say they have so much talent (especially if WA and LI do recover). |
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after the way weapons amnesty won at cheltenham, would love it if he could come back near his best and run in a gold cup - if he had a smooth prep, along with known form, would probably go off near favourite.
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think first lieutenant would be the one i'd send to kempton, trip would be perfect and would get the ground to use his speed. the aintree bowl would probably be ideal for him too.
bog warrior seems a bit too fragile to fulfil his potential. should be a nice race or two in ireland for him though. probably needs a softly softly approach at the start of next season like mullins took with quel esprit. as long as last instalment comes back fit, he would be targeted for the gold cup if it was my decision, probably with sir des champs and WA. think last instalment does prefer a good bit of cut though, so if it was on the good side at chelts he could be laid out for punchestown. as for quito, he wants the grand national trip really doesnt he? |
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altho in the past few years the surface at the punchestown festival has been 'good'
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TheLangholmDyer 27 Mar 12 18:25
Quito needs 5 miles+ at towcester in bad ground |
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dont think he does....he's just not that good.
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They would be mad not to train LI,WA and SDC for the Gold Cup,all have big shouts if fit and well.
Not so sure about FL,although no reason to think he would not be a contender as he should improve a tad i think. |
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Surely SDC's speed over 2m 4f makes him the ideal King George candidate? Like both him and LI for the CGC.
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SDC and LI for Gold Cup
FL for Ryanair, so O'Leary can finally win the race. |
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SDC looks very classy and he would do for me.
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Gordon Elliott said more than once prior to festival that SDC was his nap and would win the Gold Cup next year. So Gordon seems impressed with him, bet he wishes Giggy sent the horse to him
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I was there at the preview evening CVB.
I only wished I'd had a bet before his jewson romp. Could have got 66/1 no doubt. |
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I notice SDC started his career on the flat (although he's very nicely NH bred). That would seem a slightly unusual profile for a Gold Cup winner. Have any other recent winners run on the flat?
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I was at the festival this year Eboue so never even knew about the 66/1 offered about him winning the Gold Cup with 365. Was only offered from Wednesday night after the RSA till he won I assume.
I got plenty on at 10/1 Also Elliott has sad that about SDC 3 times, including his betfair twitter festival q&a. what I love about SDC is he will never show his full hand, kinda like Big bucks, he'll just do enough to win. Totally unexposed horse who Mullins is certain needs a trip, classy to have gone unbeaten for 2 seasons hurdles and fences with none over a staying trip. Exciting horse. |
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He is - as are Last Instalment and Flemenstar. Could be a good couple of years for the Irish.
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Hopefully we'll get a belated winner. Stupid Kauto and Denman hogging it all.
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 Yep,it looks a good few years ahead re the Gold Cup for the Irish. |
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gigginstown do look to have a very strong hand for the gold cup next year in last instalment and sir deschamps plus throw in fist liutenant and they have a frightening array of talent !
but it seems to me a bit of a knee jerk reaction by bookmakers to make sir des champs around 6/1 fav for next years gold cup .i am not in any way knocking the horse ,he is tough ,proggresive ,unbeaten and proven (twice) at the festival ,and is as in the words of another poster a horse that sems to do just enough to get the job done . but, and this is probably due to media and trainers/pundits hypeing, 6/1 for the gold cup ! not for me at that price ! not saying he wont win but he has still got plenty to prove to me to justify his price ,he has beaten champions court and for non stop plus a few other addmitedly decent novices in the jewson ,and just beat hiddeen cyclone and another(cant remember the name of th 2nd ) in a close finish in ireland . o.k g.elliot said s d c will win the gold cup next year (he may be right ) but ruby said hurricane fly was a certainty for the champion hurdle so i wouldnt take what trainers/jockeys say as gospel .for those who got the fancy prices 66s for sdc well done and good luck but 6/1 get real . |
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bud on a related note, so bad Quel Esprit didn't run in Gold Cup with a 168 winner he could have made the frame. He'd have been staying on and his jumping could have had him right in contention. Shame
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Foyles, bookies have him at 6/1 because he's been bet by many people and they've cut as a result he went from 10's down. 6s are where its settled. They introduced him at 10/1 which was a fair price to take and I took that the day of his win. 6s is a bit too short, needs to put up a good win in 3m nov chase at Punchestown beating FL to justify 6/1
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good luck with your bet c.v . saw the mullins interview last week on atr and im no body language expert , but when put to him that sir des champs was around 6/1 fav he looked slightly bemused to me. not saying he dont fancy it , but he seemed sweet on call the police as well , also put in a fair word for lambro ,but it struck me he thought call the police was underestimated . call the police maybee more of a ryanaire type (not his words )but got the feeling he has a high opinion of ctp ,said he is a very good horse ! maybee its a smokescreen ,i dont know ! and i cant find this fella quoted in the gold cup betting on betfair at present so it may not even be on the radar but its one i am going to consider . am going to have a closer look at ctp festival run again now .
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£100 quid to lay SDC @ 7.6 or less on here, FOYLES...sounds like Xmas come early for you
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yes dunc not saying he cant win the gold cup just the price too short imo . but will be even shorter if he wins at the punchestown festival !
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SDC hasn't proved himself over 3m+ yet and he hasn't won a Grade 1 (though the Jewson was in all but name) - but those things appear to be formalities. I guess a lot of the price is that he's trained by Mullins the Master who's said he'll be campaigned for the race, plus there is no strong candidate from the 2012 renewal. He seems the right favourite at this very remote stage.
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CV,
Yes mate,totally gutted when QE did not make it,had him without the 2 favs and to win outright at nice prices,still thats the way it goes sometimes,but i do think he would have gone close as it panned out. |
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I'm a huge CTP fan and had him ew in RSA, Mullins has him in high regard and has spoken highly of him on more than one occasion.
remember mullins string were not firing at festival so his 3rd in RSa on only 3rd chase start was a good run considering. He's also lightly raced and has improvement. My worry with him is age. As for SDC, he's all potential, but the fact he's unbeaten in 7 runs is a testament to his consistency. Mullins s adamant he's a stayer so he'd likely improve for the trip, plus clearly loves the hill which is a big plus too. Utterly unexposed horse and am happy with 10/1 on him. Looks an open renewal too. Will prob put a SDC, boston bob and fly treble on soon enough, only for a tenner like. |
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c.v he is not quoted for the gold cup on here and tbh i think he is more a ryanaire type . have just started up a thread on next years gold cup. (this horse still being underestimated .
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No don't think he stayed the 3m in RSA. Mullins will have SDC and Quel Esprit for Gold Cup so will be fine in that area.
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I'll be sticking with FL and hoping we get no rain
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