Why Long Run lost today.

AGREE!!

Long run lost today because mccoy or geraghty weren't on board. fact

Still not sure what causes it but this is the same long run that lost the RSA, the paddy power, the betfair etc. When he fires, something entirelt different is happening. Havent rewatched the race yet so holding judgment..

Without being disrepectful to Synchronised, it isn't a totally unreasonable guess that for whatever reason, LR isn't as good as he was last season. I'm hardly SWC's bigest fan but I don't think he did a lot wrong today.

wont back long run again untill they put a decent jockey on it geraty or mccoy sam waley chen got the horse beat

Obviously it wouldn't harm the horses chance to have Gerraghty on board but he rode it just the same as last year to my eyes - just hasn't been firing all season (or maybe last years form was massively overrated?)

Whats amazing is if you ignore sychronised and watch the giant bolster racing against long run. Scudamore rides it like hes on the classier horse - gets a good position early, coasts down the hill with a couple of prods here and there and then goes for it up the hill and outbattles SWC. SWC rides Long run like he will stay forever. He doesnt! Imo SWC could and should have played his hand later.

The guy who won the £1 million from Hendersons stable .... does know-one find it funny that the guy didn't have Long Run(the reigning champ)in his multiple ?
I'm not a big bettor on horses anymore but a friend of mine has been getting good info about which of Hendersons horses were going to run big races from the stable,when I phoned him today he was told not to back Long Run because he isn't the same horse as last year ......
the only one they got wrong was Oscar Whiskey who they fancied to stay the trip

no-one

Interesting. Can't trust anybody. I was out in town at the time of the race and so popped into my local shop. The guy was wittering on during the build up but my ears popped up when they mentioned that they had interviewed the riders father who they asked if he has was in the same shape at last year. They were amazed when he said "no". But then after a brief pause he said, "he's better."

i agree with unclepuncle,poor gold cup last year even poorer this,kauto was over the top in both of them and long run was beaten by an average handicapper today albeit given a sensational ride

Think Synch being a bit underrated here. He was great in Ireland and great again today. Long Run didn't run to his best today though & I would put it down as his worst run of the season. Sam did nothing wrong but he's never going to help the horse that much. He's done well to win what he has on him but next year will only be tougher & IMO if you want him to be more competitive in the big races you need a top pro on board

Think Synch being a bit underrated here. He was great in Ireland and great again today. Long Run didn't run to his best today though & I would put it down as his worst run of the season. Sam did nothing wrong but he's never going to help the horse that much. He's done well to win what he has on him but next year will only be tougher & IMO if you want him to be more competitive in the big races you need a top pro on board

I know Long Run is only 7, but I read somewhere last year that his family don't do much after this age. It could be we've seen the best of him.

Some might use Burton Port as the benchmark, but it could be argued the other way and if you use The Giants Bolster as the benchmark then from their Newbury run the i think most accept Long Run ran below form, arugably upwards to a stone today, perhaps it's just quite simply that Long Run ran too fast last time (I think he broke the course record) and ran flat today. Burton Port may have bounced slightly and unfortunately What A Friend fell so we can't quite put the pieces together. But realistically, in my eyes, Long Run was around a stone below his best and i think he simply ran too fast last time and didn't have enough to recover to run to near his best or to even his form of earlier this season.

Have to say worst Gold Cup since the days of Hedgehunter, etc. Perhaps with Denman, Imperial Commander and Kauto Star probably never to be seen again in the race, and Long Run perhaps having reached a stage of regression then we could be in for a few years of poor races with low class winners unless Sir Des Champs can improve, stay fit and healthy for the next few years.

I don't think SWC did much wrong myself, perhaps he could have made his move earlier but whatever way you look at it the horse didn't pick up for him when he asked the question, and no offence but if you can't out run a slow horse in a Welsh National winner and a horse who was smashed in the worst Hennessy i can remember then to be fair you don't deserve to win the race.

My take on the race, is that Long Run was in great form, last season and this year, as is often the case, it takes alot out of a horse to win the Gold Cup and they rarely come back the same horse the following season.
Now before you all come up with these Arguments, Kauto Star, Denman and Best Mate, have all come back to retain their title or run superb races again, the following season.
The difference is, that Best Mate, Denman and Kauto Star, were all great horses and I think we will now go back to seeing Gold Cup winners, that are just inform horses in that season. Saying that Sprintre Sacre, could possibly fit the bill if nothing goes wrong with him and he can see out the 3m 2f trip of the gold cup

look   we all know waley cohens an amateur and we all knew he was on board, dont blame him for doing your money on long run , blame yourself.i personally think he did little wrong, ive seen comments like "he didnt kick onwhen he should  halfway down the back straight2 then i seee "he shoulda played his hand later" ffs make your minds up. what you actually mean is"he shoulda done something different, anything, just make it win" when on the day the horse just wasnt good enough, it ran well but not well enough, of course waley cohens not a mmcoy , walsh  gerragty, but you knew that before the off so dont whinge after.!!!!!

i dont blame the jockey the horse was simply not good enough on the day... when i look back at his king george win beating riverside theatre, i think that was his peak, kauto and denman werent right in the gold cup that he won, he,s been on the decline ever since that king george win

Thought he gave it a good ride myself. Perfect position all round, got him into a decent rhythm, the horse just wasnt as his best imo. If he had decided to press on up the hill I think he would have finished even further behind the rest.

cri****     Joined: 07 May 03
Replies: 2159 17 Mar 12 10:01 
My take on the race, is that Long Run was in great form, last season and this year, as is often the case, it takes alot out of a horse to win the Gold Cup and they rarely come back the same horse the following season.
Now before you all come up with these Arguments, Kauto Star, Denman and Best Mate, have all come back to retain their title or run superb races again, the following season.
The difference is, that Best Mate, Denman and Kauto Star, were all great horses and I think we will now go back to seeing Gold Cup winners, that are just inform horses in that season. Saying that Sprintre Sacre, could possibly fit the bill if nothing goes wrong with him and he can see out the 3m 2f trip of the gold cup


Sums it up quite nicely,think we have all forgotten the young, single winners of this race that were expected to run up sequences.Mind you don`t think we we will see Sprinter Sacre in a Gold Cup,pure Two Miler although i`m sure the call will come to go for A King George at some point.

Well when it comes to opinions we all hold different views and that is what makes the game so interesting but for those peddling the horse in regression story lets not forget that this season excluding Kautomhe beat the other horses in the King George by 20 lengths and then easily beat the gold cup second giving him weight.

As for whether he went too soon or not soon enough your opinion on that will depend on what you see the horses virtues as. My own view is that he has never ever shown an ability to instantly quicken so it would have been madness to ride the horse like Kauto was to win his first gold cup but that is how he was ridden. He was ridden like that last and was tapped for toe coming down the hill and only got up because the front two cut each others throats and he then outstayed them. For those not joining up the dots the clue is on the word outstay. He is a rare combination of class and staying ability his achilles heel is the fact that he doesn't have instant acceleration and need to be wound up to produce.

And for those questioning whether he is great also take into account he won a King Geworge last year by a wide margin.

To my untrained eye, Long Runs virtues are that he travels really well at a decent click, despite his jumping frailties, and can then find a good gear for about a furlong or so and will then plod on relentlessly for as long as you like at a slow pace. Given a flat track or good ground, these virtues stretch further.

However, this flies in the face of what SWC thinks and whatever anyone thinks of SWC, he knows more about long run than anyone else on the planet so i am probably wrong.

Imo he'll win the KG this year, regardless of sprinter scare, al ferof, anyone else turning up but the gold cup will be much tougher for him again. Hes in the mix for it but his virtues dont put him above anything else that will turn up next year.

Have another look at last years King George. No evidence of any magical one furlong quickening and slowly plodding on. He ground them down all the way to the line constantly lenghtening the gap between himself and his pursuers despite being pushed along on the home bend. A classy stayers performance. Same as the gold cup last year. The difference this year in the gold cup is that he never showed the class and got outstayed by superior stayers up the hill who should have been burned off long before.

The '10 gold cup im less sure about but how can you prove to be stayer in a king george? Paddy Brennan rounds the last bend holding nacarat up and looking through his legs and then him and KS make thir mistakes. LR essentially outstays riverside theatre who isnt a stayer either. You can say LR is pushed along but i just see this as how SWC hits the front of races, for one reason or another SWC doesnt cruise up to other horses and prefers to stoke the horse up and fly past so that there isnt a protracted battle.

I'm sorry but your interpretation simply isn't what happened in my view. Brennan did look through his legs but he wasn't holding Nacarat up as can be seen by the fact that within half a furlong of that point Long Run had come past him and jumped into the lead. He was looking for what was coming from behind because he was running out of horse. Nacarat didn't make his mistake until 2 out by which time Long Run had stretched his lead to about 5 lengths. SWC didn't begin pushing and rush Long Run past Nacarat. He pushed away going into the final bend initially with little response. There was no one furlong burst. He ground his way into the lead and then continued to grind all the way to the line.

He showed all the marks of a a very classy stayer. I take your point about Kempton not playing to the strengths of a typical stayer as they generally don't have the class to lie up with the pace. That is what is special about this horse as I pointed out in my first post. He has a high cruising speed but also an ability to grind but you don't want him to get into a last three furlong uphill race with out and out stayers. Which is why I continue to assert that he should have killed the out and out stayers long before the home turn.

He certainly didn't show this one furlong burst about which you suggest in the Gold Cup. Had he done so then he might have been able to put the race to bed anyway.

Continued to grind all the way to the line? Looked like everyone behind him had settled for their position by the last fence.

Im not trying to make an exact science out of this one furlong burst, its just the only way i could think to explain that he can find a gear (after some cajoling) but its limited and is followed by a plod. And if thats accepted, then it makes sense that he can use and sustain this gear better on a flat track like kempton or on good ground like last years gold cup or by using it later in a race.

LR did briefly hit the front during this years gold cup but he couldnt sustain that pace could he? He didnt grind up to the giant bolster and then get outsped by him. Sychronised didnt suddenly find an extra gear after being under pressure the whole race and fly past them both up the hill? LR just got to the front but didnt win because he couldnt see out his finish.

He couldn't see out his finish in a slower race than last year but flew up the hill last year despite Kauto putting pace to the race down the far side. How do you account for that?

Ground was much 0.22seconds per furlong faster last year - actually good to firm that day based on race times - he was probably at the limit of his stamina that day.  Have been arguing for a while that he only appeared to be staying so well because he was going away from old horses who were feeling the ground.

Both of the above two points - fast ground and ageing horses fading - and also another point which im probably retrofitting to help my view and could probably be blown out of the water by someone with a better eye or a stopwatch. I don't think kauto was putting that much pace down for the 2nd circuit or at least not relative to how fast the ground was running.
Given that ruby gave long run no chance (in the **** preview night he claimed long run was very dependant on soft ground), then his main competitors were denman and IC. Why would he be trying to make it a test? Ruby said afterwards that he was trying to save something for the finish but it just wasnt there anymore. It sort of makes sense that his plan would be to get to the front and try to slow things down which unfortunately fell right into the hands of the fastest horse in the race - long run. This remains the one and only time that Ruby has underestimated LR and hes had no problems beating him since because he knows that if you step the pace up and blunt his finish then hes nowhere near as good.

Probably all b0ll0cks but it sounds quite neat and tidy

Not bolllocks at all. Always happy to read another theory. Even if I disagree, as long as it is thought out it makes me think and it has:

Your case causes me to ask how you can blunt a faster horse at Kempton but not up the Cheltenham hill over two and a half furlongs further?

Like I said it made me think and I've really gone through both races with a fine tooth comb and where I think you have a point is that I do believe that you are right that Ruby was trying to slow it down in front last year. Where I thought he was seeking to draw the sting out of Long Run with a sustained effort he actually seemed to be seeking to conserve his own energy. It is China Rock putting what pace there was in the race at that point.

Where I'm also wrong is my assumption that because there was a mass of horses coming down the hill this year they must have markedly slowed the pace up on the second circuit. My timing from the first on the far side until the final fence before the descent suggests that this isn't particularly the case.

It is funny what you pick up when you really look at things because around that point he gives the horse a slap with the rein which suggests to me that he didn't have as much horse under him as I originally thought.

And so on reflection I'd like to refine my view or totally alter it depending on your viewpoint. I just don't think the horse was the same horse who won so well last year or who won the King George so well last year. Maybe it is the old French bred tailing off or perhaps he just hasn't been quite as good this year in a similar way to how Kauto himself was last year.

One other thing which the replay seems to show quite clearly is that when you are the one all the rest are fearing they will do anything to make your life that little bit more difficult. Several times SWC seemed about to make a move just as another jockey closed him off. He was also a little unfortunate here and there with how different horses rolled. At one stage he ended up jumping into the back of another horse when that horse rolled back into the rail following a jump. Had that horse moved the other way SWC would have had a dream run up the inside and into the lead without expending any energy.

On reflection on the day I just don't think he was good enough and it reinforces the old adage that if you are riding the best horse on the day you can place it where you want and it has to be rank bad riding or gross injustice which stops the horse prevailing. Neither was the case here and certainly not to the extent that it made that much difference.

maybe long run just had a bad year.he might come back next year revitalised and will all in front of him.i know hes french etc but he will be only 8..

Thanks for going easy on me, i would swap in a second my analysis of jockey comments and tidy theories for a genuine eye for races which plenty of posters including yourself display on this forum. When SWC looks like hes working at the bottom of the hill(when hes blatantly got nowhere to go), i still dont really know if he is stoking LR up or if hes struggling to keep up. I only assume the former because it fits my preconception (same as i do with his king george win).
There are probably a number of reasons why he lost, definitely including all the bad luck in making his moves on the home straight. But because he puts in more average performances than good ones i question the good ones first and assume hes been overrated (theory nicked from thieveslikeus!) and that something else is going on in his good ones.
How do you blunt a fast horse at kempton? Dont know. Maybe he has only been fully tuned twice. What scares me about that is - if his KG had been raced as scheduled, some 6 weeks after his Makeson flop, would he have been ready in time? Would we now be talking about a one hit wonder who shocked everyone in a gold cup run on very fast ground?