when Rock On Ruby takes on the Hurricane again.....

ROR will never go to Ireland.

HF may come over next year but only if there's a little more cut in the ground (and Ruby will ride) - but ROR still wins.

rumor is that chasing awaits

Why wouldn't HF come over next year, he got beat because he wasn't on his A game not because he wasn't good enough, like ruby said he smashed oscars well a few weeks back and this time struggled to get past him, i don't believe for one minute what we were all calling the best champion hurdler since istabraq and perhaps beyond is finished, HF hasn't had a straight run at it this time around and if you want to gauge how good ROR  is , just remember that only two horses got into the race and one of them was overturn.!!

What are you saying about Overturn?

"The best hurdler since Istabraq"  based on ??????????????????????????????????????????????????

1 grade 1 ffs outside of Ireland,his C/h was one of the slowest in ten years.

Hardy Eustace

Brave Inca

????????????????????????????????

Overturn is a better hurdler than Peddler's Cross.

Looks like Overturn is now better than Peddler's Cross based on that if you believe Walsh didnt fk it up.

Who cares now, Hurricane will not be a legend he is not even a Brave Inca or Hardy Eustace when we all start looking back. It also showed why Mullins is a poor trainer he still has a problem preparing one to the minute for the really competitive big 4 Festival races. Ok sticking a mare who outclasses the others year on year. With Hurricane it showed he has to get them ready on the track he is hopeless at cotton wool jobs.

Who cares now, Hurricane will not be a legend he is not even a Brave Inca or Hardy Eustace when we all start looking back. It also showed why Mullins is a poor trainer he still has a problem preparing one to the minute for the really competitive big 4 Festival races. Ok sticking a mare who outclasses the others year on year. With Hurricane it showed he has to get them ready on the track he is hopeless at cotton wool jobs.

Has anyone considered that was actually Hurricane Fly's true level? At the highest level outside of Ireland the form of his win simply has not stood the test of time. It comes back to the Bino vs Fly debate somewhere on the forum: People's perception of class and right now I think in a couple of years when people look back and compare Bino's and the Fly's Champion Hurdle win they may well be saying Binocular never really got the credit in comparison to the lovefest the Fly enjoyed.

I think the last poster is right and the Newbury form in November, Rock On Ruby beating Raya Star 10 lengths conceding 13lbs was the key to the race. Hurricane Fly is a very good horse but probably better on soft ground and can't concede ground against top class horses who don't stop. Binocular was brilliant on the day he won his Champion Hurdle but it's difficult to know which Binocular is turning up.

Ruby said he wasn't going from early and Willie knew at the top of the hill he didn't have much chance.
Am convinced Hurricane Fly was below form by a stone and very confident that he will still prove the best of all of these. At least a good price next time!

it was just a one off race!

hot pots get beat all the time.

by this logic you are actually suggesting overturn is a superior horse to h'fly

they stole the race from the front, nothing else got in to it and ror's stamina won out. if ror came to punchestown he would get absolutely thrashed by hurricane fly, THRASHED!

fwiw, mccain said PC worked 'all over' overturn in a gallop the other day too.

the winner is a good horse but completely false result imo.

Prior to last seasons CH I didn't rate HF and was surprised he was able to beat Peddlers Cross. He then
went on to win well in Ireland after which I believed he could be  the best 2m hurdler since Istabraq.
I think this seasons CH exposed Hurricane Fly as nothing more than a below average CH winner and possibly
a fortunate one. If Overturn had set a quick pace last year I'd be pretty confident Peddlers Cross would
have beaten him. Overturn set a fast pace this year and Hurricane fly was exposed as being overrated(I
include myself as someone who overrated him) and ROR was a very worthy winner.
The excuse that he was flat cuts no ice with me as the special horses are usually immune to stable form(plenty of Nicholls horses looked out of sorts and Big Bucks looked dull pre-race yet still won).
Hopefully HF will mop up some hurdle races in Ireland and go off a false price for next years CH.
I think one of the worst things a punter can do is be unwilling to change his views on a horse by having to
admit to a mistake. Not admitting a mistake may massage the ego but it's crippling to the bank balance.

I would love to see Rock On Ruby and Noel fehily go to Ireland.

Booster, I find it absolutely comical that you come here and say the piece of form that was the key to the Champion Hurdle was a handicap won by a horse off 145 (what would Binocular or Hurricane Fly or even Overturn of done to this field off 145??) and use the 3rd who has clearly improved plenty since as the marker for the form conveniently ignoring that there is not one PLACE since from any of the other runners that day.
It's pretty clear to me those at the front stole this race. The only way Overturn could be in the mix was by setting the correct fractions (again it is conveniently ignored he was beaten out of sight in last year's champion by those who believe Hurricane ran to the same form), fair play to Maguire and Fehily for excellent rides. I am absoluetly confident that Rock on Ruby will prove to be a fluke winner of this race.

I certainly don't believe Overturn has improved 20 lengths on the Fly, how can anyone? Probably because it suits their agenda, I know a lot were keen on Overturn to make the frame so while basking in the smugness of their success they will not be keen to see it as a fluke.

For me the Fly wasn't near his best, Binocular who knows certainly not me, and the top 2 stole it.

This suits my agenda as I was a heavy Fly backer and couldn't see Overturn placing.

Alot will be revealed in the weeks ahead. Both the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup left me a little flumexed this year.

I dont want to get into having a go at HF,cos i do think he is better than that,think hes proved it.
What i will get into though is praising ROR.Really think it would be folly to dismiss him as a fortunate winner,he may have been in the fact that HF werent at his best and AP rode a bad race(imo),but ROR was up with the pace all the way and quickened decisively round the bend and was going away at the end.
If a horse can travel as he does and quicken like that plus stay further,then hes a hurdler that will be hard to beat over Churdle conditions.
Had HF been at his best and AP had jumped Bino off closer to the pace,then its possible we could have had a different result,but certainly not definite.
As for Ireland,personally dont care,for me its all about the horses race that they are trained to peak at,and that was at Cheltenham.

You're typical betfair thread.

Anyone who thinks they can draw definitive conclusions from a single race is not very shrewd at all.

Fly was beaten in one race but he's won 10 grade 1's. Given the form of the Mullins string and the fact his prep was nothing like his prep the year before then it's quite possible he wasn't at his best.

RoR had been beaten in every grade 1 he contested before the Champion hurdle, the champion trainer didn't judge his talent to be high enough to be trained by himself and the horse was shipped off the the satellite yard. He could well have stolen the race.

The point is both horses have plenty of questions to be answered and hopefully both will be there next year to have a rematch.

People who know the sport know the champion hurdle is littered with unexpected winners, Sublimity looked impressive winning the race in 2007 what did he do after that?

Also Kauto star went into the 2008 Gold Cup with a huge winning streak in Grade 1s and he was beaten and beaten again at Haydock. He was written off, yet came back to post the best winning performance in the Gold cup since Arkle.

So hold your horses people, there's plenty left to be decided. You have to look at the fact both horses are priced up as having a 15% chance of getting there and winning next year. There's no hot pot fav this time.

HF supporters will find a get out clause if he goes on to get beat next year. "oh, he's just not as good
as he once was" "Somethings niggling him" .When all along he was a below average CH winner who benefited
from a lack in quality of Irish 2m hurdlers and a slow early pace in the 2011 CH. Of course I cann't
prove this as a fact and its only an opinion, but hopefully it's an opinion that will bare financial fruit.
[i]RoR had been beaten in every grade 1 he contested before the Champion hurdle, the champion trainer didn't judge his talent to be high enough to be trained by himself and the horse was shipped off the the satellite yard. He could well have stolen the race.[/i]
This is a conveniant misuse of stats; what has been missed out is ROR is 3/4 over 2m and his only defeat
was a narrow one. As for stealing the race, does this not happen when the leaders go off slow and pinch
a lead whilst putting in little effort.It didn't happen here Overturn went off fast from the start. There
may have been a slight speed bias ,but the front 2 never stole the race.

You are more than welcome to your opinion tinkler. Why I wouldn't rate your opinion in the slightest is because you are writing off one horse based on one run and rapidly elevating another based off one run.

Anybody with a bit of impartiality would agree the jury is most certainly out on both horses. Was Fly below his best or is it a bubble burst? Is RoR the real deal or did he just steal the race. Wise punters will ask these questions and always keep an open mind. It's dangerous writing off a horse on one run and similarily dangerous putting too much faith in one run.

Plenty of questions to be answered by both.

But what's always amusing is how the previous years races are always a weak renewal. Every year

Whatever way you look at that race,nothing can sway me from the fact that ROR was a darn good winner.
A horse that runs up with the pace,quickens off it and wins going away cannot be knocked.
Its pretty much the perfect CHurdle winner imo,doing it that way.
Can he repeat that? who knows??
Mighty impressive though.

Jury is very much out on all of the Champion Hurdle runners for me, and as for the ROR vs Fly debate, I'm sitting on the fence so much I need tweezers to get the splinters out of my arse!!

Massive fan of the Fly, and immediately made excuses for him; but the more I have looked at the Champion Hurdle the more I see Rock on Ruby as a good winner going away at the line; whether he can win another one is a big unknown at the moment.

I've also made no secret of my liking of Overturn, so "just because he beat Overturn" doesn't make him a poor winner imo.  As for Peddlers "working all over Overturn", allegedly Vendor was working "all over Grumeti" and Royal Guardsman was "working all over Cue Card", so I take statements like that with a pinch of salt.

If the Fly and RoR were to meet again and I had a free bet, I'd back the Fly, but I wouldn't use my own money and would just watch.  I'd be very very surprised if Ruby jumped ship from the Fly.  I have no doubt (personal point of view) that The Fly is a classier horse, but Rock on Ruby beat him fair and square, with no hard luck stories.

For what its worth, the Fly was my biggest ever loss, but had my best ever festival, so it's easier to take.  Haven't lost the faith in him, but doubt I will back him at really short odds again - and despite the defeat, he's pretty certain to go off a solid fav for all of his upcoming races.

I see very little value in the Champion Hurdle market, at 6/1 the front two.  Was Rock on Ruby a one race wonder?  Has the Fly's bubble burst?  At 12's Spirit Son offers little value having missed the year.

Plenty of questions to be answered that's for sure. But would people expect Fly to reverse form with Overturn if or when they meet again?

Also as for RoR I think he is a horse who's price is more likely to remain stable or drift as I would be worried about him winning the Aintree Hurdle given his run there last year was awful and the flat track could mean he gets out paced while people will keep close tabs on him. He'd also be vulnerable in a Fighting fifth and again in the christmas hurdle. So would probably go for the bula.

But with Fly, you'd imagine he'd likely go unbeaten from now to next years champion hurdle meaning far more likely to have a price shorten. Taking a price now and laying the stake back before the off next year would be a prudent imo.

Hurricane Fly is 8 now, 9 next year. Maybe his natural regression has started.

That's a distinct possibility.

I think the problem for Fly lovers is one of their own creation.  As soon as all this 'best since Istabraq', no, hang on, 'better than Istabraq, 'the best ever maybe' started, I, for one, raised an eyebrow.  I'm sure many others did too.  Unless you're a believer, which I'm not, that guff can really turn you off a horse.

He's done nothing to suggest he could cope with Istabraq and has it all to prove now imo.  I've also heard he's a nasty pice of work and everyone in the yard hates him!

...and I don't know where you got that stuff about RoR from, CV - he was taken to the satellite because of a problem with the main Ditcheat gallops.  I'm sure Nicholls would deeem a horse with his record as good enough to stay with him!

Nope he was with satellite yard prior to the problem with ditcheat Headmaster.

Do you know when he was moved, CV?  I'm really struggling to accept the horse was moved due to a perceived lack of talent.....

I believe he's never been in Ditcheat (i.e. since he was purchased). isn't Richard Barber who runs the satellite one of the owning syndicate?

Barnesy, comical or not that was the way it panned out and, as I took 16-1 for Cheltenham on the morning of the Christmas Hurdle, I think I'm right to say that. Which other piece of form proved better on the day? Zarkandar's Betfair victory against the horse Rock On Ruby blew out of the water at Newbury? Hurricane Fly's trot round Leopardstown against inferior horses? Binocular's Wincanton defeat of Celestial Halo? Please advise as I obviously missed it and to say you're confident he'll prove a fluke just smacks of having missed out on the day. None of us know if he'll prove a fluke but, as long as people ignore the form book, there'll be value for the rest of us to keep making a second income from betting. He may well not run his race at Aintree although I personally think he will but any price over 3-1 will be attractive enough to make me want to back him and, as for people saying Hurricane Fly would thrash him at Punchestown, who'd want to go for a second rate Grade 1 at the end of a long season when he can run at Aintree next weekend then be put away for a crack at the race which really counts in March. Hurricane Fly can beat the same horses he always does in Ireland but it won't change the fact that he wasn't good enough on the day that mattered and couldn't pick Rock On Ruby up when the jockey asked him to 3 out.

That isn't true about ROR he's always been with R Barber.

I backed Punjabi in the 2009 Champion hurdle and I won that day, he beat the fav Binocular. But I know things sometimes go right for horses on the day. That's racing, it went right for him and me that day.

What I didn't do was come out and start slating all Binocular backers and say Punjabi is the best horse around he was always going to win, he'll bolt up next year...etc.

I judged Punjabi the following year on what he'd done that season and he hadn't held his form. So people with any bit of a racing head on them will not be proclaiming him next years winner already.

As for morons like booster below calling Irish racing second rate, people like you let us have epic years of winners like we did last year. Pretty sure we've had plenty of champion hurdlers in the past decade to show what a moronic statement slating our Grade 1 hurdle races is.

More champion hurdlers win our Champion Hurdle than win the Aintree Hurdle.

Where have I called Irish racing second rate? I'm no moron but can ignore your insults - I said the race is a second rate Grade 1 which it is. I subscribe to a very well known Irish tipster who has made me a profit in all the years I've been with him and even he acknowledges that the Grade 1s at Punchestown are not the best. This year I know he fancies Captain Chris and, as someone who took 25-1 for Planet Of Sound to win your Grade 1 Gold Cup 2 years ago, I think I know it doesn't take a top class horse to win there. That horse has never won since and the race was nowhere near the standard of our own Gold Cup. The fact is it comes at the end of a long season and the form is unreliable on many occasions. Hurricane Fly was beaten by a better horse on the day, not a luckier horse, just a horse who ran faster than him in all parts of the race.

booster
05 Apr 12 15:41 Joined: 17 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 516 | Blogger: booster's blog

Punchestown, who'd want to go for a second rate Grade 1

Try reading your own posts.

Our second rate racing has produced winners of every race at Cheltenham, none more so than the Champion Hurdle.

I'm calling you a moron for saying it's a 2nd rate grade 1.

Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Sublimity, Punjabi, Hurricane Fly, Binocular.

That is a list of Champion hurdlers who go for the 2nd rate Grade 1.

That's 6 champion hurdlers from 7 years who went for the "2nd rate" race.

It's a fair amount more than went for the supposedly superior Aintree hurdle.

So, you're a daft moron. Simple as that.

Looks like I've touched a nerve there but I'll stand by my comments but haven't called your racing second rate anywhere, just the Punchestown Grade 1s which anyone can see are not as well contested as Cheltenham and are an after thought for most trainers both sides of The Irish Sea.

You compare the Punchestown Gold Cup to the Punchy Champion Hurdle, that's like comparing the Aintree Bowl to the Aintree Hurdle you daft fool. Staying chases after the Gold Cup are rubbish, they were only added to the festivals about a decade ago.

You haven't touched a nerve here at all, I'm just laughing at you moron. The fact you subscribe to a tipster makes me laugh even more. Can't even make your own judgements. I love betfair forums for daft fools like you.

Is it overly simplistic to say that I thought AP and Ruby both spent too much time worrying about where the other was? By the time they started chasing the things in front it was far too late.... Not knocking ROR in any way, shape or form, but do feel that Fehily rode the best race on what may not have been the best horse.

And by your own earlier comments there was nothing legendary about Sublimity or Punjabi. The other horses were all top class having proven so at Cheltenham but the quality of opposition not necessarily so. Hurricane Fly only just beat Peddlers Cross in his Champion Hurdle and I'd have to say Rock On Ruby was a more impressive winner of the race by comparison. The point I was making was in response to an earlier poster who said Hurricane Fly would thrash Rock On Ruby when he comes to Ireland but a) there's no proof that that would happen and b) there's no need when there's a better race over here for him.

I also subscribe to Timeform Jury which has supplemented my income for as long as I've been with them but always regard everything as secondary to my own opinion. I love comedians like you who talk down to anyone who doesn't happen to share their opinion but from what I've read here I think I know who the moron is.

Your latest piece of insightful info is "Punchestown Grade 1s are an after thought for most trainers both sides of The Irish Sea."

Ah yes, sure every race run that's not at the Cheltenham Festival is an afterthought. Sure nobody cares about anything else, it's all afterthoughts.

I'll agree with your last post anyway. Good night.

I don't really care how much you make from your tipsters, it just shows your own opinion is so useless you need to pay for other peoples opinions to get you winners.

Some judge you are Booster, you must be very excited about Empire Levant coming out having been second in the best hurdle race of the season and still only rated 140. Oh scratch that he's already been tailed off twice since then.
Do wonder why the likes of Henderson and Mullins were messing about with second rate races when they could of gone for the Gerry Feilden the well known Champion Hurdle trial that it is.

If you hadn't noticed that was sarcasm, you are clearly an awful judge of form who stumbled upon a big price winner by accident (probably badly overrating a poor handicap) and now thinks this horse is the next istabraq just cos it won him some cash. Stick to buying your info pal, because you can't read races for toffee.

CVB, you have 2 Irish Champion Hurdles so not really fair to compare the longer distance race at Aintree with them ;)

Was talking about the Punchestown one, 6 of the past 7 champion hurdlers deemed it not so 2nd rate as to turn up for it. Biggest pot of any hurdle race outside of Cheltenham. It's always been the feature race of the Punchestown festival. Booster is just a moron for calling it 2nd rate and an afterthough for all trainers.

Barnesy you're some judge thinking that the Leopardstown Champion Hurdle victory against Oscars Well and Unaccompanied, who couldn't go in the ground warranted backing a horse at odds on to win the best 2 mile hurdle of the year. Oscars Well had been beaten by the same Thousand Stars and such top class hurdlers as Unaccompanied and The Real Article in his previous races this year.

Just to underline your own deficiencies in reading form here goes. At your end of term party in May last year Hurricane Fly beat Thousand Stars, a horse who clearly needs an extra mile in top company and couldn't even place in our World Hurdle. Decent County Hurdle winner though. In his 4 previous starts to winning our Champion Hurdle, he'd beaten Solwhit on each occasion.

The Newbury victory of Rock On Ruby gave him 10 lbs in hand of Zarkandar through Raya Star and that had to give him a better than 12-1 chance.


As far as using tipsters goes, I'll make no apology as they've returned me a profit every year since I've done so.

Timeform Jury are 13.65 pts up this year, my Irish tipster over £4000 up and my own tips 58.6 pts up so it all adds up to a decent start to the year. I was introduced to this by a mate who made over 600 grand in 10 years from this sort of thing and my family have benefitted ever since.

Just being rude to people because you've done your brains and are clearly envious of them and the fact that the top hurdlers seem to be this side of The Irish Sea at the moment is pathetic. We all get it wrong, me as much as anyone else but I don't resort to slagging others off to make my own existence seem more tolerable.

Hurricane Fly will in all probability beat Thousand Stars and Oscars Well again at Punchestown, possibly with The Real Article and a couple of handicappers chancing their arm for some place money but that won't change the fact that on the day that matters he wasn't good enough at Cheltenham.

since 1970, there have only been 4 winners of the Champion Hurdle that appeared not to have won in Graded company beforehand: 6yo For Auction (not sure?), 7yo Beech Road, 7yo Sublimity.... and 7yo Rock On Ruby.

Not saying  he fluked the result, because he looked a good winner on the day. But maybe that was just ROR's day as some on here have suggested.... due to the likes of Fly being well below their best.

It happens. Grands Crus thrashed Bobs Worth out of sight in the  Feltham, yet was not the same horse come the RSA (to the relief of Conor Murphy) though we know Grands Crus acts perfectly well at Cheltenham.

Just shows how hard it is to get a horse to the big day 100%. You often need a lot to go right for you, and plenty to go wrong with some of the others.

Pedrobob you're spot on. Nobody knows if it's a 1 off or if it's the start of something. Same as with Fly, nobody knows if that CH was just a bad run or if it's the beginning of a decline.

Only morons, who clearly backed RoR and are just rubbing it in peoples faces saying "We knew he'd win, he's the 2nd coming etc.."

As I've pointed out earlier, I backed Katchit and Punjabi in back to back years and not once did I come on here an proclaim them the next big thing. I accepted that they ran a great race was very happy and we'll see how they follow on from it.

I actually was certain Binocular would win the following years Champion hurdle after Punjabi won and backed him, only to trade out of the bet weeks before the race. Plenty of idiots on here were slating Binocular and his backers after that race. Why because this is betfair forums, a sess pool of clueless idiots.

Point is there are plenty of races coming that will tell us more about RoR and Fly among other horses.

you clearly know plenty about backing horses at value, cv. We could all learn plenty from that

I used to only back value the week of the festival, but have become a big antepost player in recent years as have more capital to play with. So back horses on here I know will shorten, that's all I care about. Then in late feb I start trading out of every bet usually at an overall profit and move it all to my fancied selections nrnb with Bookies. It all very fiddly and mathsy.

If you can spot ones who shorten you can end up with free bets on many short priced favs. As a rule of thumb once a horse gets too short I lay my stake back. I try to price up my selections myself and as a rule lay them when they get too short.

All this needs lots of liquidity. Also in running odds for Cheltenham are always crazy. Sizing Europe 1.21, Boston bob 1.33 (somehow) Long run 1.5 etc...

So in running lays for you stake back also works wonders. It's just a big amalgamation of different angles. I try to make notes of lessons for following years too. Learn from mistakes is very important.

Fundamental to racing is the simple fact every horse has its price. you need to make decisions on price alone.

As far as next years race goes, I'm looking at the runners away from Fly and RoR for some value. Grandouet, Spirit Son maybe. I'd like Darlan at a decent price, he'd be a bit of value imo had traffic jumping the last and got up the hill better than anything.

interesting strategy, cv. Do you apply the same to daily racing (eg get out in running at shorter odds) or do you mainly focus on antepost?

Booster said: "Barnesy you're some judge thinking that the Leopardstown Champion Hurdle victory against Oscars Well and Unaccompanied, who couldn't go in the ground warranted backing a horse at odds on to win the best 2 mile hurdle of the year. Oscars Well had been beaten by the same Thousand Stars and such top class hurdlers as Unaccompanied and The Real Article in his previous races this year.

Just to underline your own deficiencies in reading form here goes. At your end of term party in May last year Hurricane Fly beat Thousand Stars, a horse who clearly needs an extra mile in top company and couldn't even place in our World Hurdle. Decent County Hurdle winner though. In his 4 previous starts to winning our Champion Hurdle, he'd beaten Solwhit on each occasion."




He didn't just beat Oscars Well at Leopardstown, he thrashed him. That's the same Oscars Well who probably would have beaten Rock On Ruby at Cheltenham last year. He left Thousand Stars for dust at Punchestown last spring. You say Thousand Stars need another mile yet failed to place in the World Hurdle. Have you seen the World Hurdle????? He pulled like a train and was a blatant non stayer. This is the same horse who finished 4th in the Champion Hurdle last year. I'd say Mullins was sick he didn't run him in it again because the way the race was run would have been right up his street. I think it's obvious Hurricane Fly was not at his best. What is not certain is if he can bounce back or if he is just not as good as he was. I think he will bounce back with victory at Punchestown.

Yes Pedrobob,

I did some analysis on my past betting with the help of form.betfair.com which tells you in running lows and highs for horses. I found that if I'd just doubled my stakes on horses rather than betting ew and then put and in running lay up at 1/4 the odds to save stake I'd have come out with more profit in the long run. It was a little less useful for big priced horses, like say 20/1 or higher so I still do ew on horses that big price.

I bet every day usually and keep a record of every bet I place in a spreadsheet and review my bets monthly to try figure out what went right and wrong. So I had good data history to analyse.

Have another look, CV, I've neither labelled him the seconmd coming nor rubbed anyone's face in anything.

Your mate, Barnesy, rubbished my analysis of The Gerry Fielden which I defended then translated into value based on the price and form of Zarkandar.

I also pointed out that I get it wrong plenty of times as I'm sure you do, but I try to learn from my mistakes not make crass comments about others' points of view, that's a sure way to spot a loser.

I haven't seen you argue with my form comments as they're fact compared to those saying Hurricane Fly will thrash Rock On Ruby next time based on absolutely nothing other than their entrenched opinion.

If you're going to make any money betting on horses you'll need a more flexible approach which I admit I've had to learn over the years.

My reading of it is that HF despite him winning the 2011 renewal may not be as well suited to the normally faster ground at chelt as he is around Punchestown on slower going, he won well, but Ruby got serious with him and at the cold end of the day he's around a couple of lengths better than Peddlars Cross over the Chelt c/d and we dont know really what that equates to, thats not to knock him as he may have beaten the runner up far more easily on easier ground in Ireland.

The fact that now his age and his c/d form wouldnt compel me to back him to regain his crown back at the festival

My reading of it is that HF despite him winning the 2011 renewal may not be as well suited to the normally faster ground at chelt as he is around Punchestown on slower going, he won well, but Ruby got serious with him and at the cold end of the day he's around a couple of lengths better than Peddlars Cross over the Chelt c/d and we dont know really what that equates to, thats not to knock him as he may have beaten the runner up far more easily on easier ground in Ireland.

The fact that now his age and his c/d form wouldnt compel me to back him to regain his crown back at the festival

zilzal, from experience I know it's very very hard to draw definitive conclusions from a single race. Someone could easily make the case (as the rptv antepost lads did in jan this year) that Fly got better with each run last season and that with only 1 run before chelts this season he wouldn't be in same form as last year.

There are loads of angles and views one could take on the race. Take Punjabi in 2008, he was beaten fair and square by Katchit, yet went on to win in 09 with Katchit back in 5th.

I remember having wars with people on here who said Kauto was not good left handed and only good right handed back before his 09 Gold Cup. Horse has now won 6 grade 1s left handed. There are no definitive conclusions in racing, just little bits of info and angles that influence your betting decisions.

Any wise punter would have a price he'd be willing to back RoR or Fly at. Rather than saying one or the other cant win it again.

I may not have a bet in the race!!

With his following though, the Fly's not the type of horse that going to go off underbet in any contest he lines up in unless he shows serious regression in the next year.

All im saying is that Cheltenham on fastish ground may not be his optimum conditions on his form shown so far, id imagine that if he cleaned up on easier ground over the winter he'd again be a short price come the festival and im certainly not interested at 6-1 for a year on!!

And this is why you get shocks at the Festival as bigger field, faster ground and some early pace you get there are hardly replicated all throughout the winter months in the build up.

So we're unlikely to find out until around 4-00 on the 1st day of Cheltenham next year

I'm very interested in 6/1 as a trade position, he'll prb win at Punchestown and go 4/1 then with more wins next season he'll get short again, then lay stake back.

But thats how I look at racing. I don't worry if the horse will win next year, I concern myself with will the horse shorten. I make decisions on who carrys my money in late feb and early march when I can transfer everything to nrnb as most n/r are in the weeks leading up to the race.

I can see the angle CY, but the horses age worries me a bit and personally think there's more of a chance that injuries can catch up with him for the potential upside in the price shortening, but thats just me

Im only really involved in ante post in the spring(and NH from Chelt-Whitbread) anyway, i was lucky to back ROR without the fav at 8-1 before the festival

Aye mate, different angles.

I went with Binocular w/o fav

thanks for sharing your angle on betting strategy, cv, including the 1/4 odds IR lay.
Is there a minimum price you will back at or is there no such thing, could a 1/10 shot be value in your eyes?
You mention that you have carried on backing 20/1+ shots ew.
What is generally the maximum price that you find yourself playing at on daily bets, what sort of price range do you generally find the large proportion of your winners in?

Most of us who earn a good living out the game agree that trading is for people who can't.  But there you go....

...on a more antagonistic note  "Take Punjabi in 2008, he was beaten fair and square by Katchit, yet went on to win in 09 with Katchit back in 5th." Total tosh - watch the race again, CV, Geraghty never put the horse in the race 'the first day'....Punjabi should have won two Champion Hurdles.

You can tell its raining in the Holiday break again

Idle hands, zil

I've strapped myself in and wil take 'em all on

have you got a winner today, head master?

I have just the one of particular interest today, pedrobob.  It went out to my subscribers overnight.

Both you and CV will be particularly pleased that today's selection revolves around the esteem with which I hold the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

No fake G1s in the Emerald Isle.

Prime Exhibit and Chapter and Verse are my stabs at today, missed he 13-2 the former that Powers put up yest, but 11-2 suffices

I take a similar view to zilzal. I do think HF is very very special given the right conditions. I'm just not convinced that those conditions are fastish ground at Cheltenham. He just about got away with it last year partly because of his class and partyl because of how the race panned out. I suspect he didn't really like the experience though.

This had (maybe still does have) the makings of a good old-fashioned seethfest. I'm all for that seeing as we have eons to wait for any other decent Festival...

I think Hurricane Fly is one of the best we've seen for a very long time but Istabraq was a beast and would have picked him up and carried him in my book. When he was ridden to be as good as he could be (instead of to win the race) he was utterly jaw dropping. Watch his first Champion Hurdle and you'll see how much pace and power he had.

As for the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, I mostly agree with Booster. All those end of season Grade Ones are worth hugely less than Cheltenham form. Yes, some good horses have won the races (some very good) but you can't tell me that everything arrives spot-on on quickish ground after a long season in the same way they do in mid-March at the theatre of dreams. Even Aintree form is usually considerably less reliable because most of the top-notchers are begging for their holidays (and rightly so) by that point in the year.

Dont you think that Horses are being trained more for the Spring festivals as a whole now Tom?? 1st two in the Champion hadnt run this calender year, same with the Gold Cup winner, you are not seeing a lot of horses all season up until the spring, maybe a few at the open meeting, then they are put away, run over hurdles, NH flat etc

You might as well have the off season in Jan and Feb nowdays

There are a few in the Champion Hurdle that look ideal trading opportunities to me.  I see nothing wrong with backing at bigger odds and trading out for free bets.  Worked for me this year with Rubi Light and Darlan, as well as Simonsig in the Supreme, so saved me a good few quid.

As CV has said, I can't see Hurricane Fly being any bigger than 6/1 from now until post time.  I think he'll be shorter after Punchestown and be about 9/2 over the summer, and if he has a trouble free season he could easily be 5/2 - 2/1 after the Irish Champion Hurlde.

Oscar Whisky is currently 33/1 which I also think is a good trading price.  I see he is only priced up by Sid James though?  I haven't heard anything about chasing and he surely won't run in the World Hurdle again.  If he runs well at Aintree, I think he could be a 16/1 shot over the summer, and would have a chance if having a proper 2m campaign, and his price will shorten if he wins the Welsh Champion against inferior opposition.

I've also had a little bit on Cotton Mill at 70/1 on here.  Would have run Simonsig close, and he is 12/1 by those who have priced him up.  Can see him going down the Champion route because he seems more speed than stamina; but obvious question marks, so a bit of a shot in the dark, but at 70/1 I think it was worth a few quid.

Apart from that, I wouldn't rush out and back any of the Triumph horses, next years Champion could have a very different look about it with the likes of Cinders and Ashes, Darlan, Oscar Whisky, Spirit Son, Grandouet and possibly Go Native and Cotton Mill.  At this very early stage its already looking really competitive.

WellC, 70/1 looks a huge price on Cotton Mill if he stays hurdling and over 2 m, though I notice he's in the 3 miler at aintree this week. Might he be going chasing? I like Neptune horses for the folllowing Champion - proved again this year though I didn't back RoR - and CM would surely have been third at worst if he'd stood up.

I reckon Simonsig would have the Champion for the taking but it looks strongly like he'll go chasing. Nothing from the Supreme or Triumph really looks like a superstar. hence Cotton Mill looks a nice sporting bet at this stage.

Didn't actually see that entry Stront, and just saw that he's got an entry in a 3 mile novice hurdle at Punchestown - already signs are looking bad

You never know, he might not stay 3 miles and come back to two, but he was still travelling strongly in the Neptune when running out, so to me he looked like a speed horse (then again, I have just seen he's never even ran over 2m, maybe I should do more homework before sticking a few quid on )

I also think the Champion could be there for the taking for Simonsig.  If he can speed up his hurdling technique, he has such an engine it'll take a serious horse to keep up with him.  Actually got a quote of 33/1 before the Neptune for the Champion, but didn't take it because of the chasing rumours.  If he were mine I'd have a crack at a Grade 1 hurdle (like the Fighting Fifth) and take it from there.  It's still early enough in the season to then have a go at novice chases if it doesn't work out.

Vibe at Hendo's yard on friday was Simonsig'll go chasing and that's also what the early betting suggests. Hendo has Darlan, Spirit Son, Grandouet and Oscar Whisky for the Champion - but who knows at this stage!

As for Cotton Mill, he was travelling superbly until he ran out, but I believe the ability to stay 2 1/2 m is exactly what you want in a Champion Hurdler. Next year if they want to target the Festival they'll have to go for the Champion or World Hurlde (if he stays over hurdles) and the Champion looks the more realstic option to me. That said, Paul Jones says he looks like a 3 miler in his Aintree book! I really hope they go down the 2 m route. I don't think ferguson has had a chaser yet (at least not of any note) and it will be intereating to see what happens when he does.

Geraghty said Simonsig will go chasing and hopes he'll win the Arkle next year.

pedrobob
06 Apr 12 14:48 Joined: 27 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 3,775 | Blogger: pedrobob's blog
thanks for sharing your angle on betting strategy, cv, including the 1/4 odds IR lay.
Is there a minimum price you will back at or is there no such thing, could a 1/10 shot be value in your eyes?
You mention that you have carried on backing 20/1+ shots ew.
What is generally the maximum price that you find yourself playing at on daily bets, what sort of price range do you generally find the large proportion of your winners in?

Sorry only seeing this post now.

I usually never touch odds on shots, exceptions are horses like Big Bucks and Quevega. But sometimes I'll take something a shade odds on, but I never really massively raise my stakes when backing them, so my return is usually small. I must quantify this by pointing out I do not bet on flat racing at all, I'm strictly a National Hunt backer, there's less odds on shots in NH.

I have no maximum price I back at, value is value. I look at race cards the day before and get a feel for the horses that may interest, then when I see early odds I'll either see something that looks overpriced or I won't.

As for trading (headmaster) I think there are angles everywhere that can be exploited to give you an edge. The in running market is one such advantage, as is laying horses who get too short. Take Boston Bob at chelts, backed at antepost he went to 6/5 or whatever when he was a 2/1 shot. Once he is below the price I believe he should be he becomes a lay. It's simple probability.

You never stop learning in this game and I've plenty more to learn that's for sure. But I've reached a stage where I'm making a steady profit. Next step is increasing stakes and that's where the bookies become big problems.

Apologies, CV.  I'm having anger management issues whenever anyone mentions trading or bots or arbers at the moment!  You carry on mate, good luck.

I thought you were just joking or making a valid comment That's why I explained myself.

All set to make Contact after the Grand National

I hope so!

Trouble I find is, when you spot one a long way off like this, it tends to blur your normal analayis of a race on the day, don't you think?

I think everything has gone swimingly, only worry would be the ground, hope it's quick for him. They can throw an experienced conditional up as he'll be racing of a feather weight anyway. Get what you can ew early prices and wait to see what Delboy and Rodney make of his chances. If they hammer him follow them.

My plan anyway.

Not 'arf.  You have got me going again, CV - will bump thread up to the top.

follow the plan, hes improved a fair bit hasnt he! quel esprit wouldve won that on the bridle wouldnt he lads!

cv, many thanks for your advice re trading and value betting

Might be pocket talking but Cotton Mill is no 3 miler. To my eyes he has to go either Champion Hurdle or Arkle next year

He didn't seem to get the trip did he (unless he hated the ground), but he was travelling better than anything 3-4 f out (as he was when he ran out in the Neptune). I'd also like to see what he can do over 2 m hurdles but like you that's pocket talk

You're most welcome Pedrobob

33/1 on Oscar Whisky still decent value after his win today.

Still don't know about next years plans, but it has to be Arkle or Champion Hurdle; clearly doesn't stay 3 miles.

Big Buck's form looks OK.

whoa, another spanner, looks like 1000 stars is now better than hurricane fly

mugs!

Who are the mugs?