Cheltenham Festival

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harry callaghan
13 Mar 12 21:59
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,825 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
shorty tomoz in the to say it is an in running race for me but who fancies it and who don't?
Pause Switch to Standard View who's taking the 2.42 on grands crus...
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Report thedemps March 13, 2012 9:08 PM GMT
Dutched it with Bobs Worth pre Xmas so just pleased to have a run for my money

I think GC has it all. FL has more to prove in terms of stamina than he does and syurely things will be happening a bit quickly for JT.

If I hadn't bet already I would be giving this race a wide berth but I have added an each way to Dutch in Walkon (33s a bit too big for me)
Report FOYLESWAR March 13, 2012 9:12 PM GMT
have backed 2 against him he looks a bit short for me and his form from kempton is not looking as hot as it did at the time !
Report judorick March 13, 2012 9:15 PM GMT
me too

bobs and join together
Report ShannonSpray March 13, 2012 9:32 PM GMT
We have seen many Feltham winners beaten in the past in this race, but Grand Crus has seriously good form around Cheltenham. Cast your mind back 12 months to the World Hurdle for example. Looking at tomorrow's opposition, I can't have Bobs Worth as a winner after only beating Cue Card by a nose earlier this season, despite receiving about 7lbs. First Lieutenant was firmly put in his place at Christmas by Last Instalment. 

Bottom line, and it's all about the bottom line, I can't see Grand Crus outside the top 3 and have invested accordingly.
Report OnTheSnaff March 13, 2012 10:47 PM GMT
Lay for me,just cant see him lasting out,i like Cannington Brook simply because he's massively over priced
Report pedrobob March 13, 2012 11:02 PM GMT
Grands Crus is 4 from 6 over 3m fences and hurdles. Only time beaten at the trip by a certain Big Bucks
Faster time in the 3m Feltham the mighty Kauto Star / Long Run
1121 record at Cheltenham incl 2 from 2 over tomorrow's Old Course
Bolted up in a 3m Grade 2 hurdle over the reputedly more testing New Course
In last 8 UK starts, only Big Bucks got the better of him
Easily the most natural jumper of either hurdles or fences in the field

Ask yourself this question. Would any of the others have been considered in the reckoning for the Gold Cup?

This must be one of the best ever favourites in the history of the race including Denman who bolted up at 6/5
Report comicbookguy March 13, 2012 11:08 PM GMT
Got to agree Pedro I jumped on when they decided to go for RSA, connections will def want a win after not going for GC. I took 6/4 and will go in again tomorrow if bookies offer good price. Think it may win in style of Denman. Good luck everyone.
Report MeatIsMurder March 14, 2012 10:20 AM GMT
As well as the Feltham stat, I cannot remember the last winner who did not run in the Jan or Feb before the festival
Report pedrobob March 14, 2012 10:56 AM GMT
As with all stats or trends, it's important to find a reason why a stat/trend seems to prevail.

If you are referring to an RSA winner always running in Jan or Feb, presumably it will be down to a novice collecting enough chasing experience to deal with the hurly burly of a 3m chase, having to jump and gallop at a speed over fences that they have never done before?

Normally it would be hard for a novice chaser to have run enough times over fences to get that experience if they had only run in the first half of the season.

In the last 10 years, only Cooldine (tiwce) and Trabolgan (3) had run less then 4 times like Grands Crus, before coming here.
But Cooldine won of the weaker renewals (only What A Friend won 2 non-handicap grade 1/2 chases from 29 collective subsequent attempts of that field) and Trabolgan was beaten a sh hd in the so called nemesis race, the Feltham

So rather than relying on those trends, would prefer to ask can Grands Crus defy them?

Does he have enough chasing experience? I think so, he is easily the most natural jumper in the field and has only made 1 mistake in 3 chases all run at a decent gallop so far

Can he win in a field of this size? He's won hurdles with fields of 17, 18 and 14 where he was twice held up.

Can Grands Crus win after a break of more than 80 days? He's won after breaks of 264 and 146 days

When you look down the list of Feltham winners, it is no surprise (with the benefit of hindsight)  that they didn't follow up in the RSA. Since 1996, the only surprises would have been Gloria Victis (went for Gold Cup) and Long Run (a 5yo when he ran here). Winning the Feltham proved the nadir for virtually every other winner bar Ollie Magern.
So the Feltham stat is just down to the winner of that race not being as good as people  thought at the time. Can we say that of Grands Crus? Connections were so close to going for the Gold Cup. Just possible he won't have the stamina for that race, but in 12 months time, surely Grands Crus will at least be back for the Ryannair if not the big one? Looking at the rest of the field today, can't see a single horse who has the potential to be good enough to take on Long Run in a year's time.
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