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Cheltenham Festival
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12 Mar 12
21:18
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Date Joined:
28 Jun 10
I've turned this race upside down and back to front and I simply can't get away from Binocular at 5-1 and I have had to break two habits of a lifetime in not usually backing each way and never with short priced horses.
I could be totally wrong but I just can't but help feel that he will turn up in his best form and at his very best I see very little between him and Hurricane Fly. The Fly is more consistent of course but his best isn't much better than that of Binocular's and yet arguably on the scant evidence Cheltenham suits Bino more.
Consequently I can't split them. One is odds on and being sung from the rooftops and yet the other has sneaked under the radar but consistently contracted in the market following his demolition job on Celestial Halo despite everything being against him that day.
Everything will be right for Bino tomorrow with a fast pace, on good ground and a strong uphill finish. Three times at the festival and never out of the first 3.
So consequently some may argue that I've taken the chickens way out but I can't rationalise a logical reason why I may have called this spot on, him run the race of his life but just get touched off by a brilliant Fly and I end up skint
Zarkander is going to have to be some 5 year old to beat two such good horses and like Rock On Ruby I'm not absolutely convinced that he won't hit a flat spot and run on when the speedsters have flown. Even if I'm wrong and he is Pegasus reincarnated Bino can still finish 3rd and I make a meagre but welcome profit.
Outside of that I won't lose that much by taking the cowards way out if he actually does do what I think he may.
My only regret is that I wanted to be sure that all my ducks were lined up prior to committing and the fancy prices have gone. However, I'd still rather be in this position knowing that everything is primed for him to run a massive race.
Anybody needing any convincing should have a look at his demolition of Celestial in his pipe opener on unsuitably soft ground, a flat track and no pace to bounce off.
The King is back and he will go very very close in my view.
Oh and the likes of Hendo and Fitzy are playing down his chances despite saying he's never been better.
I could be totally wrong but I just can't but help feel that he will turn up in his best form and at his very best I see very little between him and Hurricane Fly. The Fly is more consistent of course but his best isn't much better than that of Binocular's and yet arguably on the scant evidence Cheltenham suits Bino more.
Consequently I can't split them. One is odds on and being sung from the rooftops and yet the other has sneaked under the radar but consistently contracted in the market following his demolition job on Celestial Halo despite everything being against him that day.
Everything will be right for Bino tomorrow with a fast pace, on good ground and a strong uphill finish. Three times at the festival and never out of the first 3.
So consequently some may argue that I've taken the chickens way out but I can't rationalise a logical reason why I may have called this spot on, him run the race of his life but just get touched off by a brilliant Fly and I end up skint
Zarkander is going to have to be some 5 year old to beat two such good horses and like Rock On Ruby I'm not absolutely convinced that he won't hit a flat spot and run on when the speedsters have flown. Even if I'm wrong and he is Pegasus reincarnated Bino can still finish 3rd and I make a meagre but welcome profit.
Outside of that I won't lose that much by taking the cowards way out if he actually does do what I think he may.
My only regret is that I wanted to be sure that all my ducks were lined up prior to committing and the fancy prices have gone. However, I'd still rather be in this position knowing that everything is primed for him to run a massive race.
Anybody needing any convincing should have a look at his demolition of Celestial in his pipe opener on unsuitably soft ground, a flat track and no pace to bounce off.
The King is back and he will go very very close in my view.
Oh and the likes of Hendo and Fitzy are playing down his chances despite saying he's never been better.
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3 questions.......
where did you get the mushrooms from?
how many have you eaten?
and can i have some please?
where did you get the mushrooms from?
how many have you eaten?
and can i have some please?
i agree with TheForumMan,Complete and utter bollóx,(lots of it) above,Binocular has Zero chance tomorrow,
He's not good enough,Hope this helps
He's not good enough,Hope this helps
Not good enough?
Perhaps you can tell me how many horses have won a champion hurdle pulling the jockeys arms out after two out causing him to take a pull so as not to release him too soon?
And perhaps you can tell me how many have absolutely kicked an officially rated 165 horse (last two races won) off the track despite everything being against him.
I can take a logical dissection of my viewpoint. I simply cannot accept the forum equivalent of lobbing beer cans at my head for making what seems to me an obvious case.
Perhaps you can tell me how many horses have won a champion hurdle pulling the jockeys arms out after two out causing him to take a pull so as not to release him too soon?
And perhaps you can tell me how many have absolutely kicked an officially rated 165 horse (last two races won) off the track despite everything being against him.
I can take a logical dissection of my viewpoint. I simply cannot accept the forum equivalent of lobbing beer cans at my head for making what seems to me an obvious case.
Well obviously we will have the answer then. I presumed that the idea of the night before having done all the prep work was to debate the issues to pass the time.
Leaving aside the Fly do you seriously think he isn't good enough to place?
Leaving aside the Fly do you seriously think he isn't good enough to place?
Binocular thrives on a fast paced race imo, which he's had in his three festival races
not disgraced in the Supreme or his first CH attempt when a young horse, and set alight when he won
He's got his work cut out to beat the Fly, but on his day is brilliant
However, he's as likely to throw a wobbler too
not disgraced in the Supreme or his first CH attempt when a young horse, and set alight when he won
He's got his work cut out to beat the Fly, but on his day is brilliant
However, he's as likely to throw a wobbler too
I think he's abit over rated. Finished behind Thousand Stars on a couple of occasions and he can't get near the fly. Beating Overturn 3 lengths etc is not really good enough. Binocular was hammering Celestial Halo years ago so not gonna read too much into it. Not brave enough to place lay him but will be backing the Fly.
Started the week thinking HF was untouchable. The more I've thought and looked into it, I'm finding it difficult to separate he and Binoc, if the Henderson horse is on form, which Mick Fitz thinks he is (says he's never seen him look so good). Doubt that HF would have ever run on ground so quick.
hurricane fly
oscars well
rock on ruby
no placed finish for bino tomorrow
oscars well
rock on ruby
no placed finish for bino tomorrow
have to agree with you im on bino eachway as i just cant back a horse odds on at chelts and think the value is with bino. he's also a horse that is a class act and if at his best is sure to go close and he also has the experience, should finish in the 1st 3!
Do not rule out Zarkandar,under estimate him at your peril!
I came to the same conclusion Eeternal and backed ew accordingly
Zak might place in next years world hurdle,but not tomorrow
He's unbeaten,no one knows how good he can become over 2 miles,he looks like a stayer,no doubt about it,but you cant tell where his improvement will end until he gets beat,very much doubt he will win it but may run HF close
youre absolutely right. binocular is a big improver since his op and is the obvious each way pick with or without fly.
judo
A couple of days ago I nearly asked your opinion of his run against Celestial at Wincanton but I wanted to get my money on first in case you caused a stampede. Given it was too soft, on a flat track, Celestial was given a canny ride designed to give himself the best chance and inconvenience Bino that Bino always needs his prep prior to Cheltenham and that Celestial was heavily backed to win I just had a funny feeling watching him come home from two out. I think you know the one I'm talking about. I'm not talking times. I'm talking a gut feeling given the circumstances I'm certainly not always right but it is a little while since I had it and I didn't have a dodgy curry the night before.
A couple of days ago I nearly asked your opinion of his run against Celestial at Wincanton but I wanted to get my money on first in case you caused a stampede.
Given it was too soft, on a flat track, Celestial was given a canny ride designed to give himself the best chance and inconvenience Bino that Bino always needs his prep prior to Cheltenham and that Celestial was heavily backed to win I just had a funny feeling watching him come home from two out. I think you know the one I'm talking about. I'm not talking times. I'm talking a gut feeling given the circumstances I'm certainly not always right but it is a little while since I had it and I didn't have a dodgy curry the night before.
aye I know exactly what you mean - I think there is only 2 you can back seriously and one is odds on. Same as the Gold Cup really
my boy is dishing up lessons in the tennis, another title coming his way and a big chunk for me!
my boy is dishing up lessons in the tennis, another title coming his way and a big chunk for me!
I can see Binocular winning tomorrow. Always thought he saves his best for the festival.
Binocular's Champion Hurdle victory came against Khyber Kim and Zaynar, which doesn't sound a stellar renewal in retrospect. Hurricane Fly's victory prompted 3rd place Oscar Whisky to dodge the race this year as connections concede that they can't beat The Fly.
Hurricane Fly's won 10/12 Grade 1 hurdles he's been in. Binocular has a 4/12 record in Grade 1 hurdles.
Of the last 21 Christmas Hurdle winners, only one has obliged in the Champion Hurdle. The best guide has been the previous year's 1-2-3 in Champion Hurdle (5 winners) - only Hurricane Fly returns. The second best guide is the winner of the previous year's Ranobank Hurdle, which was also won by Hurricane Fly.
In the 2011 Ranobank Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly beat Binocular (3rd) by 7 lengths, "easily" according to the Racing Post, which looks a good form line to me.
Hurricane Fly's won 10/12 Grade 1 hurdles he's been in. Binocular has a 4/12 record in Grade 1 hurdles.
Of the last 21 Christmas Hurdle winners, only one has obliged in the Champion Hurdle. The best guide has been the previous year's 1-2-3 in Champion Hurdle (5 winners) - only Hurricane Fly returns. The second best guide is the winner of the previous year's Ranobank Hurdle, which was also won by Hurricane Fly.
In the 2011 Ranobank Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly beat Binocular (3rd) by 7 lengths, "easily" according to the Racing Post, which looks a good form line to me.
Should be a blistering pace which will suit Binocular and for some reason i feel as though Hurricane Fly is one one of those horses who is not inconvenienced by anything. He acts on good ground as much as soft. Has a high cruising speed and a sharp turn of foot. Injuries apart he is almost bomb proof.
Only once has a previous winner (Comedy of Errors) regained their crown after losing it since 1927, while 16 horses have returned to defend their crown.
The only reason we don't talk of Hurricane Fly in the same hushed tones as the mighty Istabraq, is because he's a fragile horse who has missed two festivals...
The only reason we don't talk of Hurricane Fly in the same hushed tones as the mighty Istabraq, is because he's a fragile horse who has missed two festivals...
Fwiw Eternal I make you right - can't see Bino being out of the three. Actually think he and the fly will be 1-2 (in either order) with oscars wells picking up third, and have back the combination tricasts accordingly....
Also, FWIW, I think Binocular will have a great chance of second, it's just I'd have him a good 6lbs worse than Hurricane Fly.
it really is incredible that so many of you lot still think Binocular is a good horse,He has never beaten a decent horse in his life,you can harp on all u want that he beat such an such who had a high rating,Khyber Kim,punjabi and Celestial Halo are the best horse he has beat,they wouldn't get with in an arses roar of Hurricane Fly.i hope all you Binocular go skint tomorrow by backing this nag,he's useless,Cant wait till he gets mullered
Cheltenham
Two points. The form of the Radobank should not be relied on. No way is Binocular a horse who should be making his own running and on a point which may seem pedantic but has some relevance Binocular didn't lose his crown last year. He was unable to run for well documented reasons. It isn't as if he was carried out on his shield.
My other point is that I believe that his last run showed him in a far better light than at any time since his win in the champion, even allowing for the opposition.
Like I said I do believe that the champ is back and that it could well be a humdinger which I don't think most people are expecting.
Of course I could be very wrong and it won't be the first time.
Two points. The form of the Radobank should not be relied on. No way is Binocular a horse who should be making his own running and on a point which may seem pedantic but has some relevance Binocular didn't lose his crown last year. He was unable to run for well documented reasons. It isn't as if he was carried out on his shield.
My other point is that I believe that his last run showed him in a far better light than at any time since his win in the champion, even allowing for the opposition.
Like I said I do believe that the champ is back and that it could well be a humdinger which I don't think most people are expecting.
Of course I could be very wrong and it won't be the first time.
Backed The Fly & Binocular is the ONLY danger imo. Should have backed him straight after he won the Kingwell for insurance but was too indecisive after losing a fortune on him antepost last year(luckily clawed it back with The Fly). Binocular to me is inconsistent for sure but at his best he's nearly just as good as Hurricane Fly. The thing that separates them is Hurricane Fly runs his race 99% of the time.
clever
Nobody is saying that Hurricane isn't a very good and arguably outstanding horse but turn your argument around. Which horse at its peak has Hurricane beaten and more pertinently what did he beat last year on his first trip to Cheltenham?
By the way Hurricane could beat my selection by 10 lengths and as long as mine is in the first 3 I make a small profit.
Binocular may not beat The Fly tomorrow but I have a feeling that if you half a man you will be on here withdrawing your comments. Not only is Binocular a good horse. On his day he is a very good one.
Nobody is saying that Hurricane isn't a very good and arguably outstanding horse but turn your argument around. Which horse at its peak has Hurricane beaten and more pertinently what did he beat last year on his first trip to Cheltenham?
By the way Hurricane could beat my selection by 10 lengths and as long as mine is in the first 3 I make a small profit.
Binocular may not beat The Fly tomorrow but I have a feeling that if you half a man you will be on here withdrawing your comments. Not only is Binocular a good horse. On his day he is a very good one.
Or if Binocular hadn't to be withdrawn due to a more minor matter, of having antibiotics in his system, we might be talking of him in hushed tones...
This is what its all about. The craic with kindred spirits and none of us wrong until about 3.25 tomorrow.
'antibiotics in his system'
'or the steroids that Jp had someone pump into him whilst he just so happened to be spending a few weeks over at his place prior to the CH,as was the case before the 2010 CH'
'or the steroids that Jp had someone pump into him whilst he just so happened to be spending a few weeks over at his place prior to the CH,as was the case before the 2010 CH'
On his going days Binocular has the best technique over hurdles that I have EVER seen. Hopefully he will run to the best of his ability tomorrow.
That was partly what I was alluding to in relation to his Wincanton race. At some of his hurdles you would have sworn they weren't there so quick was he from one side to the other.
FormMan
Do you have any evidence for your assertions?
Do you have any evidence for your assertions?
you can't affect the outcome so there is no right or wrong in betting
if you have a solid reason for a selection then the outcome is irrelevant. What matters is the outcome over many hundreds of selections - this determines the skillful bettor from the less skillful
if you have a solid reason for a selection then the outcome is irrelevant. What matters is the outcome over many hundreds of selections - this determines the skillful bettor from the less skillful
Smashed ROR 20/1 e/w myself, was confident but now there's alot of people talking it up in the press bound to dissappoint.
Eeternaloptimist - I get that Binocular didn't lose his crown, rather he forfeited by missing the race. I take your point about the running of the Ranobank and Binocular's tactic., I was using it not only as a form guide between the two, but also for the fact is has provided 4 Champion Hurdle winners in the past 12 years as to another trend indicating The Fly's chances.
As you may have guessed, I'm a stickler for trends to support my understanding of form. I wouldn't begrudge Binocular a victory, it's just I have a financial interest in The Fly.
judorick - indeed it is, and why Cheltenham in particular is a sporting event without parallel! Nothing like a good bit of discussion about our selections and why. Always learn something, or see another angle when you talk it out.
thieveslikeus - if my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle :) Could I not equally argue that without his own setbacks Hurricane Fly would have been to the Festival three times by now? It's a petty argument on my part, but hopefully you can see what I am getting at!
I'll be more than happy to come on here and hold my hands up if/when The Fly gets beat, but my reading of the form and trends leads me to believe Hurricane Fly has something in-hand and I have yet to be convinced otherwise.
As you may have guessed, I'm a stickler for trends to support my understanding of form. I wouldn't begrudge Binocular a victory, it's just I have a financial interest in The Fly.
judorick - indeed it is, and why Cheltenham in particular is a sporting event without parallel! Nothing like a good bit of discussion about our selections and why. Always learn something, or see another angle when you talk it out.
thieveslikeus - if my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle :) Could I not equally argue that without his own setbacks Hurricane Fly would have been to the Festival three times by now? It's a petty argument on my part, but hopefully you can see what I am getting at!
I'll be more than happy to come on here and hold my hands up if/when The Fly gets beat, but my reading of the form and trends leads me to believe Hurricane Fly has something in-hand and I have yet to be convinced otherwise.
CH - "Could I not equally argue that without his own setbacks Hurricane Fly would have been to the Festival three times by now? It's a petty argument on my part, but hopefully you can see what I am getting at!"
Petty or not, you already did argue that, which is what I was answering...
Petty or not, you already did argue that, which is what I was answering...
When bino came 2nd he got beat by punjabi and also in a photo finish with celestral halo and in my opinion they were both handicappers maybe G3 at best. When bino won the champion he beat khyber kim into 2nd who again is another haandicapper in what had to be a crap champion. The hurricane wins grade 1's beating grade 1 horses as u like and that includes beating bino at punchestown 9 lengths as easy as u like. Even overturn has beat bino 4.5 lengths this year. Just saying...
avinitoff
Any detailed response will seem like excuse making for Bino. I don't think I need to make excuses for the horse. If you really know the horse then all what you put whilst strictly accurate can be explained quite easily. Every single point. The simple fact is that he polairises opinion. Some are for him and some are against him. As long as he finishes in the first 3 I can afford to be wrong.
Any detailed response will seem like excuse making for Bino. I don't think I need to make excuses for the horse. If you really know the horse then all what you put whilst strictly accurate can be explained quite easily. Every single point. The simple fact is that he polairises opinion. Some are for him and some are against him. As long as he finishes in the first 3 I can afford to be wrong.
looks a nailed on place to me,he always runs well at Cheltenham,in good form and most importantly his jumping looked as good as it ever has lto and thats the key for him.He will have a nice pace with OT and CH,and only thing stopping him placing is if ROR and Zark are better than him on the day,i doubt both will be.
He could win if hes right back to his best,he aint far behind HF.
Goddamn this thread! Your reasoned responses have me a little nervous now this morning!
They've got that glint in their eye. From JP to AP. I think that they think that they would have the winner with The Fly not in the race and that he is going to give the champ a good run for his money.
My thoughts exactly.
My thoughts exactly.
Interesting Avinitoff. I think the argument revolves around people's perception of class: Khyber Kim, Punjabi, Go Native, Celestial Halo, Zaynar, Starluck, Solwhit vs Oscar Whisky, Peddlers Cross, Thousand Stars, Menorah, Overturn and Clerk's Choice. Obviously Fly's opposition had a touch more hype and illusion of confidence and the added bonus of being the more fresher memory in our minds then Binocular's win a year further ago.
How about my personal perception that Fly's opponents are all much better suited to further whilst Menorah's International Hurdle form is definitely not good enough and surely nowhere near what Binocular's oppositions had achieved? Am I wrong?
Take the fifth of both races. Starluck vs Menorah. Starluck as a 4yo off level weight went to within a neck of 6yo Go Native in the Xmas hurdle. Menorah had achieved nowhere near that level of form shown yet has actually run to a higher mark then Starluck according to the official handicapper in beating a hype horse in Cue Card 4.5l who subsequently only finished fourth in the Supreme and was beaten soundly by Spirit Son at Aintree.
I just can't understand Peddlers Cross' rating either as he beat Bygones of Brid, Starluck, Reve De Sivola and Scriptwriter, form that doesn't really scream out as Champion Hurdler yet beaten by Hurricane Fly put his rating up to 170???? Perhaps the Fly really didn't run up to 170+? It's the same thing with Sizing Europe. Did he REALLY run to 170+ in beating Kauto Stone and a below par Big Zeb? why is it not possible he could've simply ran to 160?
Take away the prices and betting for 5 mins. Look at it from a simplistic view and the way people are quick to anoint the likes of Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross above Binocular's supposedly "handicappers" opposition and the way the handicapper has rated Peddlers Cross' chase form this season tells me this coming clash between Bino and the Fly is tight to call. Throw in Binocular's health, fitness, almost perfect preparation physically and from a statistical viewpoint vs the Fly's preparation and his sole run this season, you'd be thinking Binocular has a real chance.
Personally I'm on RoR EW ante-post and Binocular without the Fly EW ante-post. I see no reason to get involved again but if i haven't a bet, I'd be thinking "hang on why the hell is Hurricane Fly as short as he is vs Binocular?"
Apologies if the above doesn't make sense! GL all
How about my personal perception that Fly's opponents are all much better suited to further whilst Menorah's International Hurdle form is definitely not good enough and surely nowhere near what Binocular's oppositions had achieved? Am I wrong?
Take the fifth of both races. Starluck vs Menorah. Starluck as a 4yo off level weight went to within a neck of 6yo Go Native in the Xmas hurdle. Menorah had achieved nowhere near that level of form shown yet has actually run to a higher mark then Starluck according to the official handicapper in beating a hype horse in Cue Card 4.5l who subsequently only finished fourth in the Supreme and was beaten soundly by Spirit Son at Aintree.
I just can't understand Peddlers Cross' rating either as he beat Bygones of Brid, Starluck, Reve De Sivola and Scriptwriter, form that doesn't really scream out as Champion Hurdler yet beaten by Hurricane Fly put his rating up to 170???? Perhaps the Fly really didn't run up to 170+? It's the same thing with Sizing Europe. Did he REALLY run to 170+ in beating Kauto Stone and a below par Big Zeb? why is it not possible he could've simply ran to 160?
Take away the prices and betting for 5 mins. Look at it from a simplistic view and the way people are quick to anoint the likes of Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross above Binocular's supposedly "handicappers" opposition and the way the handicapper has rated Peddlers Cross' chase form this season tells me this coming clash between Bino and the Fly is tight to call. Throw in Binocular's health, fitness, almost perfect preparation physically and from a statistical viewpoint vs the Fly's preparation and his sole run this season, you'd be thinking Binocular has a real chance.
Personally I'm on RoR EW ante-post and Binocular without the Fly EW ante-post. I see no reason to get involved again but if i haven't a bet, I'd be thinking "hang on why the hell is Hurricane Fly as short as he is vs Binocular?"
Apologies if the above doesn't make sense! GL all
I love your original post, Eaternaloptimist.
If Binocular turns up with the same positive mental attitude that he had at Wincanton he has every chance of winning.
I'm a huge fan of the horse and I'm just thrilled that he is being seen as a real threat to Hurricanne Fly.
I'm expecting Binocular to win,but will be happy if he comes a good second
If Binocular turns up with the same positive mental attitude that he had at Wincanton he has every chance of winning.
I'm a huge fan of the horse and I'm just thrilled that he is being seen as a real threat to Hurricanne Fly.
I'm expecting Binocular to win,but will be happy if he comes a good second
You win some, you lose some. Game run by Rock on Ruby. How Overturn came 2nd I don't know...
Looked to me like Hurricane Fly and Binocular gave them too big a lead and couldn't get close enough turning for home
Looked to me like Hurricane Fly and Binocular gave them too big a lead and couldn't get close enough turning for home
Bino would have had more chance had AP not been so obsessed with tracking HF imo,he normally has him a lot closer in his races.
Fair play to the jockeys of the first 2,they knew what they were on and deserved to be 1st and 2nd,no doubt.
Fair play to the jockeys of the first 2,they knew what they were on and deserved to be 1st and 2nd,no doubt.
Run the race again and the result would be very different.
Overturn is the marker in this race.
Overturn is the marker in this race.
Mar 12, 2012 -- 6:55PM, RMB © wrote:
Smashed ROR 20/1 e/w myself, was confident but now there's alot of people talking it up in the press bound to dissappoint.
judorick exposed as clueless yet again,Stick to the Tennis fella
CleverName 12 Mar 12 23:09
it really is incredible that so many of you lot still think Binocular is a good horse,He has never beaten a decent horse in his life
So when Binocular beat Rock On Ruby and Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle, he didn't beat decent horses? Think it is you that is shown to be clueless here. As well as being downright rude and unnecessarily nasty.
it really is incredible that so many of you lot still think Binocular is a good horse,He has never beaten a decent horse in his life
So when Binocular beat Rock On Ruby and Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle, he didn't beat decent horses? Think it is you that is shown to be clueless here. As well as being downright rude and unnecessarily nasty.
Correct,Rock on Ruby is another average winner,in the same league as Katchit.Hurricane Fly is Ten Times the horse ROR is,He didn't run his race for whatever reason,i'll be quite happy to lay ROR in every race he turns up in from now on,and if he were ever to meet the Fly again he'd have no chance,So in conclusion,Binocular is a bang average Horse
What an idjit. I am completely embarrassed for you.
I clearly underestimated your stupidity, should have realised when you said "been" instead of "being" on that disgraceful topic you started. You should seek therapy in my view. Your anger issues are clearly exacerbating your already poor judgement.
Go to bed,you loser.and don't be obsessed with anonymous people on an internet forum,
Cant be good for your health
Cant be good for your health
Says the person starting topics just to attack another person!
I can only judge for myself but judorick seems a pretty clued up sort but then my own judgement has to be in question after that shambles today.
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