Cheltenham Festival
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Replies: 17
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til the cows come home, cant win with that weight on its back and i dont car how easily it won lto.
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Has never won left handed which is the main concern.
Don't see the weight being a major issue as he only has to give a max of 8lbs to his rivals |
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isn't Fontwell at least half left handed?
Poor horse has only run left handed 3 times, twice nearly a year ago or more before he started rapid improvement |
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Bottom weight is 11-4 so nt exactly givin away stones to the rest of em either - i would nt be rushin to lay it at 8/1 anyway
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His one loss since he showed improvement was at Plumpton, not conclusive i'll grant you but its enough to make me reduce stakes
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his defeat at Plumpton more likely down to the worst ground he's raced on.
6 of the 7 horses behind him that day have won since, 4 of them nto. |
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Valid point Pedro, cheers
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As I said on another thread the biggest problem is that he is priced up as if Geraghty is on board - you should be doubling the price re-united with Scholfield.
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Outside the x country i cant remember the last time a top weight in a handicap winning at the festival and over 150s have a shocking record as well
He's not 150 though and there is a small weight range |
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the record of 150+ horses in handicaps is admittedly only 1-89 since 1995
but there are reasons for that: namely it's harder to carry weight over longer trips and most horses who are rated 150+ are generally exposed with nothing in hand of the handicapper but take the record of fancied horses (less than 10/1 and presumably still considered improving and/or progressive) in that range over distances short of 3m in handicaps and the record reads 2232910530 that's 1 winner and 5 placed from 10, a decent record given only one of the 10 races had less than 16 runners |
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I,d be with hunt ball,though i have a slight doubt about him getting up the hill.Thought his Kempton run was awesome(no Cheltenham i know).
In answer to your question op i,d imagine you would get a cheaper lay maybe 3 out as on past evidence should jump well and be travelling well just behind the leaders. As an aside love to see him win as it would be a great story and the celebrations would be manic. gl. |
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I hope you didnt do your nuts on this - what a performance . Really pleased for them - think there was a fair bit of racing snobbery going on with this one. If trained by Nicholls then pure genius but because owned by a farmer and trained by a lesser trainer the form was always knocked . Great end to day one.
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 Well done to them indeed |
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Great stuff,what the feck was i worrying about the hill for. |
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moneyforoldrope 12 Mar 12 18:30
til the cows come home, cant win with that weight on its back and i dont car how easily it won lto.  I think the owners cows will be miked by someone else tonight/tomorrow morning !!Fantastic win. What an improving horse. Don't you just love Handicaps !! |
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As the owner was tearfully being interviewed on C4 after the last win and proclaiming, "We've got stones in hand", I thought, 'yeah, maybe you have, I'll back it next time'. But top weight in a novices hurdle at the festival, no thanks. Still delighted for all concerned to see it sluice up, a great story. I'd chuck it in a graded race next time up. I know the handicapper is clearly still miles off with this one and winning pots is always nice, but sooner or later they'll have to raise their sights - maybe the Maghulls or the longer novice chase at Aintree.
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Novice hurdle ?
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