Cheltenham Festival
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It has been a great race for the Irish and we've eight runners this year. However, there isn't a standout challenger amongst the Irish this year. Steps To Freedom and Galileo's Choice are respected but if I had to back one it would be Trifolium who hasn't stopped progressing over the last few months.
It's an open renewal of the Supreme and it's quite easy to make a case for a horse like Tetalmi who has done well this season. But to be honest, you could say the same about more than a dozen horses in the race.
Realistically Blackstairmountain has minor place prospects at best. He'll love the ground, but he needs to take a big step forward. He could sneak a place but you are relying on one of the top three performing well below par for him to get involved.
Steps To Freedom has vital winning course form which is a huge positive and he has shown he can show high-class form after a break. There will be more to come from him after just 3 runs over hurdles. I'm just more taken with Trifolium.
Midnight Game's form isn't quite as strong as some of the other Irish horses, but he will like the good ground. He's been a highly thought of horse for ages but Davy Russell deserts him.
There's no doubt in my mind Huirricane Fly is a worthy odds-on favourite for the Champion Hurdle. His comeback run was one of the best efforts of his career. It did come on heavy ground, but of all the runners that day he should've been most inconvenienced. We can trust the form. I don't think he'll be beaten and I expect him to go some way to matching Istabraq's record tomorrow afternoon. In terms of Oscars Well, he could be the horse to give Hurricane Fly most to do. He's been progressing well all season and the chance to run on good ground will bring out the best in him. Horses that run well in the Neptune and come back in trip have a good record and he can play a significant role. With that in mind, Rock On Ruby could be the pick of the home team. As for the bankers, the chances are one of them will lose. Perhaps punters should be taking advantage of a certain Irish bookmaker offer in the Arkle, as Sprinter Sacre looks most vulnerable.
Scotsirish has taken really well to Cross Country racing this season. He's unusual as he can still perform in good conditions races. He's the obvious one, but favourites don't have a great record in this one, with the second and third favourites doing well. If I had to have a bet I'd go with Garde Champetre each-wway. He needs no introduction and runs off his lowest Cross Country mark for three years.
Quevega will go off a prohibitive price but the mares race lacks strength in depth. I probably will back Shop DJ each-way. She's been chasing and won on the Flat last time. She loves good ground and if she runs like she did at Punchestown she'll have an each-way chance.
Magnanimity runs in the JLT Specialty and he's interesting on his RSA Chase run, but he might be best watched as he's struggled recently. White Star Line could run well in the novice handicap, he's potentially interesting.
Simonsig is the horse to beat in this race but I prefer Monksland over Sous Les Cieux. Monksland is a very talented horse but Sous Les Cieux has questions to answer after some disappointing runs. Make Your Mark didn't enjoy the soft ground last time but he's a horse of major potential and should go well.
I've been with First Lieutenant for a few months now and his run behind Last Instalment was really encouraging. He comes here straight from Christmas and is a course winner who will love the drying ground. He's got all the requisite qualities to win the RSA and he's the one to beat. I think Grands Crus is a suspect stayer and I'm not convinced he's an out-and-out three-miler.
It's very hard to get away from Sizing Europe. He comes here in terrific form having won the Tingle Creek and then beating Big Zeb. Now, Big Zeb wouldn't have enjoyed the soft ground at Punchestown but neither would Sizing Europe. I doubt Big Zeb can reverse the form. This looks a weaker race than it was last year. Finian's Rainbow doesn't look the strongest of finishers. Of all the short priced favourites this weak Sizing Europe is one of the strongest.
It's the third year in succession the Irish Bumper team isn't so strong. Moscow Mannon is a triple bumper winner, a likeable horse, but, I can't help but feel his form isn't so strong. Clonbanan Lad is a nice horse but there's a big ground issue for him. Jezki has looked very good for Jessica Harrington, but it's an English horse I like - Royal Guardsman for Colin Tizzard.
My information is Carlito Brigante will run in the Coral Cup, but top weight will make it hard form him. Gordon is happy with him, though, so a big run wouldn't surprised. I tipped Silverhand for this race two years ago and he was badly hampered but could've been involved. He could run well. But the Irish challenge for the Coral Cup isn't especially strong this year.
Disco Teca has been disappointing recently, better ground could suit, but I'm not convinced by his chances. Tom Taafe's Argocat could be the best Irish hope in the Fred Winter.
Sir Des Champs has a strong chance. He's undefeated over fences so far and if he'd had a clearer run the last day he would've been more impressive. He did well to win the Martin Pipe race last year and the Jewson is the ideal race for him. There's obvious question marks over Peddlers Cross.
As for Gigginstown's best chance - First Lieutenant in the RSA.
The Ryanair is a strong and competitive renewal this year. Noble Prince and Rubi Light are two good chances for Ireland. RL did well to finish third in this last year, but he wouldn't want drying ground and that would concern me. Noble Prince is last year's Jewson winner and he'll love the spring ground. He's had some form of wind operation since his last run, but looking at his form he needs to take a big step forward to play a major role.
This is one of the strongest bunch of staying hurdler Ireland have had for a long time - a shame for them they run into Big Buck's! This is absolutely the right race for Thousand Stars - he won the French Champion Hurdle over 3m2f. The demands of this race will bring out th ebest in him, he's a contender. Voler La Vedette is a better mare this year than ever before. She'll travel well and is a legitimate frame contender and Mourad is another place contender. However, the best Irish hope is So Young. He's three from three this season and I think he'll come into his own over this trip. I think he'll emerge the best of the Irish horses.
Up The Beat is a horse who has come into his own since he was sent chasing and the form of his Punchestown second got a real boost when the first went and won the Eider. He's plenty to do off top weight on just his fourth run over fences so that won't be easy. No Irish has won the Kim Muir for 19 years, but Adam's Island has an each-way chance. Paul Nolan's horse has run some nice races this year and has a good course run at Cheltenham.
Admittedly Irish horses don't have a strong record in the Triumph with two or three wins in the last20 years. There's no outstanding candidate among this year's four-year-olds, but Shadow Catcher has a chance. He'll be running well if he reaches the frame.
I think the Albert Bartlett is the right race for Boston Bob and he's a very strong chance. I don't think he is overhyped, Willie Mullins really rates him and that's good enough for me. I think he won the best novice hurdle run in the UK or Ireland at Leopardstown last time and his form is stacking up. He's one of the best Irish chances of the week.
Citizenship did a lot wrong last time but still managed to win. For so many things to go wrong, and for him to win one of the most competitive handicaps in Ireland is a clear pointer to his chances. Final Approach did the ****/County Hurdle double so it's a double that can be done. Jessica Harrington has won this race before too so that's a positive. Moon Dice and Sailors Warn also have chances for Ireland. Sailors Warn could be overpriced and he's a live chance of getting closely involved.
Quel Esprit has come back really well and there was a lot to like his win in the Hennessy at Leopardstown last month. He's 10 or 12lbs to find to get competitive. He's got to take it to another level to play a part in this Gold Cup.
Of all the races Long Run has contested this season this race will suit him best. At this trip, I would have Long Run ahead of Kauto Star. The thing with Long Run is, I thought he would be hard to beat this season but it hasn't happened for him. Kauto Star has enjoyed a terrific season and looks to have come back from his scare. It would take a lot of a 12-year-old to win three years after he's first won it - although we are talking about one of the best staying chasers of recent years. However, I would take them both on with Burton Port. He's a much stronger contender than the likes of Midnight Chase or Weird Al, he's strong form in the book and can go well.
It's an open renewal of the Supreme and it's quite easy to make a case for a horse like Tetalmi who has done well this season. But to be honest, you could say the same about more than a dozen horses in the race.
Realistically Blackstairmountain has minor place prospects at best. He'll love the ground, but he needs to take a big step forward. He could sneak a place but you are relying on one of the top three performing well below par for him to get involved.
Steps To Freedom has vital winning course form which is a huge positive and he has shown he can show high-class form after a break. There will be more to come from him after just 3 runs over hurdles. I'm just more taken with Trifolium.
Midnight Game's form isn't quite as strong as some of the other Irish horses, but he will like the good ground. He's been a highly thought of horse for ages but Davy Russell deserts him.
There's no doubt in my mind Huirricane Fly is a worthy odds-on favourite for the Champion Hurdle. His comeback run was one of the best efforts of his career. It did come on heavy ground, but of all the runners that day he should've been most inconvenienced. We can trust the form. I don't think he'll be beaten and I expect him to go some way to matching Istabraq's record tomorrow afternoon. In terms of Oscars Well, he could be the horse to give Hurricane Fly most to do. He's been progressing well all season and the chance to run on good ground will bring out the best in him. Horses that run well in the Neptune and come back in trip have a good record and he can play a significant role. With that in mind, Rock On Ruby could be the pick of the home team. As for the bankers, the chances are one of them will lose. Perhaps punters should be taking advantage of a certain Irish bookmaker offer in the Arkle, as Sprinter Sacre looks most vulnerable.
Scotsirish has taken really well to Cross Country racing this season. He's unusual as he can still perform in good conditions races. He's the obvious one, but favourites don't have a great record in this one, with the second and third favourites doing well. If I had to have a bet I'd go with Garde Champetre each-wway. He needs no introduction and runs off his lowest Cross Country mark for three years.
Quevega will go off a prohibitive price but the mares race lacks strength in depth. I probably will back Shop DJ each-way. She's been chasing and won on the Flat last time. She loves good ground and if she runs like she did at Punchestown she'll have an each-way chance.
Magnanimity runs in the JLT Specialty and he's interesting on his RSA Chase run, but he might be best watched as he's struggled recently. White Star Line could run well in the novice handicap, he's potentially interesting.
Simonsig is the horse to beat in this race but I prefer Monksland over Sous Les Cieux. Monksland is a very talented horse but Sous Les Cieux has questions to answer after some disappointing runs. Make Your Mark didn't enjoy the soft ground last time but he's a horse of major potential and should go well.
I've been with First Lieutenant for a few months now and his run behind Last Instalment was really encouraging. He comes here straight from Christmas and is a course winner who will love the drying ground. He's got all the requisite qualities to win the RSA and he's the one to beat. I think Grands Crus is a suspect stayer and I'm not convinced he's an out-and-out three-miler.
It's very hard to get away from Sizing Europe. He comes here in terrific form having won the Tingle Creek and then beating Big Zeb. Now, Big Zeb wouldn't have enjoyed the soft ground at Punchestown but neither would Sizing Europe. I doubt Big Zeb can reverse the form. This looks a weaker race than it was last year. Finian's Rainbow doesn't look the strongest of finishers. Of all the short priced favourites this weak Sizing Europe is one of the strongest.
It's the third year in succession the Irish Bumper team isn't so strong. Moscow Mannon is a triple bumper winner, a likeable horse, but, I can't help but feel his form isn't so strong. Clonbanan Lad is a nice horse but there's a big ground issue for him. Jezki has looked very good for Jessica Harrington, but it's an English horse I like - Royal Guardsman for Colin Tizzard.
My information is Carlito Brigante will run in the Coral Cup, but top weight will make it hard form him. Gordon is happy with him, though, so a big run wouldn't surprised. I tipped Silverhand for this race two years ago and he was badly hampered but could've been involved. He could run well. But the Irish challenge for the Coral Cup isn't especially strong this year.
Disco Teca has been disappointing recently, better ground could suit, but I'm not convinced by his chances. Tom Taafe's Argocat could be the best Irish hope in the Fred Winter.
Sir Des Champs has a strong chance. He's undefeated over fences so far and if he'd had a clearer run the last day he would've been more impressive. He did well to win the Martin Pipe race last year and the Jewson is the ideal race for him. There's obvious question marks over Peddlers Cross.
As for Gigginstown's best chance - First Lieutenant in the RSA.
The Ryanair is a strong and competitive renewal this year. Noble Prince and Rubi Light are two good chances for Ireland. RL did well to finish third in this last year, but he wouldn't want drying ground and that would concern me. Noble Prince is last year's Jewson winner and he'll love the spring ground. He's had some form of wind operation since his last run, but looking at his form he needs to take a big step forward to play a major role.
This is one of the strongest bunch of staying hurdler Ireland have had for a long time - a shame for them they run into Big Buck's! This is absolutely the right race for Thousand Stars - he won the French Champion Hurdle over 3m2f. The demands of this race will bring out th ebest in him, he's a contender. Voler La Vedette is a better mare this year than ever before. She'll travel well and is a legitimate frame contender and Mourad is another place contender. However, the best Irish hope is So Young. He's three from three this season and I think he'll come into his own over this trip. I think he'll emerge the best of the Irish horses.
Up The Beat is a horse who has come into his own since he was sent chasing and the form of his Punchestown second got a real boost when the first went and won the Eider. He's plenty to do off top weight on just his fourth run over fences so that won't be easy. No Irish has won the Kim Muir for 19 years, but Adam's Island has an each-way chance. Paul Nolan's horse has run some nice races this year and has a good course run at Cheltenham.
Admittedly Irish horses don't have a strong record in the Triumph with two or three wins in the last20 years. There's no outstanding candidate among this year's four-year-olds, but Shadow Catcher has a chance. He'll be running well if he reaches the frame.
I think the Albert Bartlett is the right race for Boston Bob and he's a very strong chance. I don't think he is overhyped, Willie Mullins really rates him and that's good enough for me. I think he won the best novice hurdle run in the UK or Ireland at Leopardstown last time and his form is stacking up. He's one of the best Irish chances of the week.
Citizenship did a lot wrong last time but still managed to win. For so many things to go wrong, and for him to win one of the most competitive handicaps in Ireland is a clear pointer to his chances. Final Approach did the ****/County Hurdle double so it's a double that can be done. Jessica Harrington has won this race before too so that's a positive. Moon Dice and Sailors Warn also have chances for Ireland. Sailors Warn could be overpriced and he's a live chance of getting closely involved.
Quel Esprit has come back really well and there was a lot to like his win in the Hennessy at Leopardstown last month. He's 10 or 12lbs to find to get competitive. He's got to take it to another level to play a part in this Gold Cup.
Of all the races Long Run has contested this season this race will suit him best. At this trip, I would have Long Run ahead of Kauto Star. The thing with Long Run is, I thought he would be hard to beat this season but it hasn't happened for him. Kauto Star has enjoyed a terrific season and looks to have come back from his scare. It would take a lot of a 12-year-old to win three years after he's first won it - although we are talking about one of the best staying chasers of recent years. However, I would take them both on with Burton Port. He's a much stronger contender than the likes of Midnight Chase or Weird Al, he's strong form in the book and can go well.
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