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Glossy
12 Mar 12 00:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Feb 09
| Topic/replies: 19,355 | Blogger: Glossy's blog
Just got in - good night. Gordon Elliot and Mick were good value as always....and it may have been the couple of pints I had but doesn't Tanya Stevenson look a lot better in the flesh than on TV!

Panel was:

Gordon Elliot
Mick Fitzgerald
Aiden Coleman (replacement for Jason Maguire)
Tanya Stevenson
Noel O'Brian

Supreme Novice 

AC: Likes Darlan and thinks it will win. Of the others, likes Vulcanite at the price.
MF: Mention to Tetlami. Picks Darlan though concerned that he didn't win his last race.
TS: Mentions a few! Tetlami, Colour Squadron and Distant Memories but picks Hazy Tom e/w at a price.
NO: Has spoken to Jessie Harrington who is very happy with her horse, Steps to Freedom. Picks Trifolium - rates him highest in the race.   
GE: Also likes Steps to Freedom but thinks it would prefer a flat track like Aintree. Picks out Cinders and Ashes.

Arkle:

MF: Has never seen Henderson so excited as he is about Sprinter Sacre. Thinks he is the real deal. Would give a chance to Menorah if he jumps the first few well.
AC: Sprinter Sacre. Nothing has tested him so far so no doubts over stamina.
NO: No surprises, Sprinter Sacre. Feels the horse is extra special. Thinks Blackstairmountain will like the better ground but is not good enough to win.
GE: Sprinter Sacre
TS: Sprinter Sacre here too. Think Menorah is a great e/w bet and his jumping will be helped by a quicker pace.

Champion Hurdle 

NO: Can't see Hurricane Fly being beaten.
GE: Thinks Hurricane Fly will win.
TS: Agrees that HF should win but picks out Overturn for her e/w money. Feels it will appreciate the quick ground.
AC: Likes Zarkander's chances. Good chance of running into second.
MF: Saw Binocular at the Hendo yard last week and says the horse has never looked better. Picks Hurricane Fly - best hurdler since Istabraq in his opinion.

Others:

TS: Picks out Terre Du Vent as an e/w shot in the Mare's Hurdle. Says it's a good bet considering she was close up on Grumeti in the Dovecote Hurdle before falling.
GE: Fancies the chances of Shop DJ e/w in the Mare's Hurdle.
AC: Rides Carrickboy in the Novice's Handicap Chase. Didn't sound too keen on the horse's chances.
GE: Gives a big positive to Saddlers Storm in the Cross Country. Says Tony Martin is very keen on its chances.

Part 2 of 4 to follow in a few minutes.
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Report Glossy March 11, 2012 11:45 PM GMT
Neptune Hurdle:

GE: No real thoughts but confirms that Mount Benaulben doesn't go in this. Goes in the Albert Bartlett.
NO: Big mentions to Monksland. Seemed very keen on its chances.
MF: Pointed out that Simonsig scoped badly after his defeat by Fingal Bay. Very keen on the chances of Simonsig
TS: Very keen on Batonnier to win. Also feels that Cotton Mill represents very good e/w value after form being franked yesterday.
AC: Can't see anything other than Simonsig winning. 

RSA Chase:

AC: Feels that the value is with Bobs Worth. Likes Grand Crus but feels that he is beatable.
MF: Has been disappointed with Bobs Worth this season but feels strongly that he's a different horse going left handed. Worried that the horse has lost fluency.
GE: Sir Des Champs nailed on to win this. Goes on to say that SDC will also win the Gold Cup next year (cue gasps from the room). Sportingbet rep offers him 66/1 for the double!
NO: Likes the e/w chances of Join Together
TS: Fancies Bobs Worth to win. 

Champion Chase:

NO: Thinks Big Zeb has a lot better chance than his price suggests. Doesn't feel there's much to choose between BZ and Sizing Europe.
GE: Race is 100% between Sizing Europe and Big Zeb.
MF: Sizing Europe to win. Feels it has the best chance of winning out of the 4 returning champions.
TS: Likes the price of Finians Rainbow but feels Sizing Europe will win.
AC: Sizing Europe to win but not at all keen on the chances of Wishfull Thinking when asked. Feels that the current price of 14/1 is far too short!

Others:

GE: Fancies Allee Garde in the National Hunt Chase. Says that his horse in the race, Cottage Oak has no chance and is there purely as a day out for the owners.
MF: Agrees on the chances of Allee Garde.
AC: Very keen on the chances of Kapga de Cerisy which he rides in the Fred Winter. feels that it's well handicapped and possibly Venetia Williams' best chance of a Festival winner.
GE: Says that his horse in the Fred Winter, Discoteca has only a place chance at very best - not keen.
TS: Keen to take on Vendor in the Fred Winter. Puts up Dark and Dangerous and Royal Bonsai to go close at big prices.
GE: Carlito Brigante runs in the Coral Cup and has e/w chance off top weight. 
GE: Likes the chances of Jezki. Very cold on the chances of Moscow Mannon saying that it may be one for the future but will not finish in the first 10 in this race!
Report Glossy March 12, 2012 12:02 AM GMT
Jewson Chase:

GE: Feels that Peddler's Cross is right to run in this race as he had no chance of winning the Arkle.
TS: Says that Peddler's Cross is priced on his hurdling form. Very keen on the chances of Champion Court.
NO: Comments that Irish horses Call the Police and Lambro are both good but not top class and probably won't be good enough for this.
AC: Another one who feels that Champion Court is well equipped to win this. His housemate and CC's jockey AP Cawley worked with him a few days back and said the horse felt in great form.

Ryanair Chase:

NO: Of the Irish, prefers the chances of Rubi Light to those of Noble Prince. Very sweet on the chances of Riverside Theatre.   
GE: Gives Rubi Light absolutely no chance. Has no idea what will win - very competitive race.
TS: Picks out Kalahari King as a great e/w bet. Course specialist who will turn up in great shape.
AC: Likes Great Endeavour in this. Has form over course and distance.
MF: Great Endeavour loves the course and has a great chance. Doesn't like Riverside Theatre in this - feels the horse goes much better fresh.

World Hurdle:

TS: Big Buck's to win but thinks Thousand Stars is a great e/w bet. She thinks it will be second behinf BB.
AC: Also likes Thousand Stars. Comments that it has a combination of speed and stamina. Thinks Big Buck's will win though. 
GE: Big Buck's will win. Oscar Whisky will not get up the hill.
MF: Shocks the room by saying that Big Buck's will be beaten this year...by Oscar Whisky.       
NO: Big Buck's wins once again.   

Others:

AC: Will ride Houblon Des Obeaux in the Pertemps and feels it has a reasonable e/w chance.
GE: Comments that his horse in the Pertemps, Russian War has absolutely no chance. He thinks Our Father will win.
Report JOCI Club March 12, 2012 12:04 AM GMT
Glossy - thanks for sharing this!
Report Glossy March 12, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
Just noticed that BJG has done it already, in much more detail too! Cry

Never mind, I've started so I'll finish!
Report Glossy March 12, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
No worries JOCI.
Report the yomper March 12, 2012 12:23 AM GMT
Glossy i was wondering if MF mentioned anything about allthekingshorses in the pretemps?
Report chesterboys March 12, 2012 12:24 AM GMT
Thanks Glossy. Both threads of interest. Good of you both to make the effort. Was at one of these last year at a pub just off the path by the course on the Monday night. Not there this year so good to hear info from others.
Report Glossy March 12, 2012 12:26 AM GMT
Triumph Hurdle:

TS: Fan of Balder Success. Also likes e/w chances of Countrywide Flame at a big price.   
MF: Balder Success also.
GE: Likes Darroun but very sweet on his horse, Shadow Catcher. Says it will win!
NO: No real positive choice but thinks there could be an upset with a big priced winner. 
AC: Feels Baby Mix will win. 

Albert Bartlett Hurdle:

GE: Mount Benaulben has an e/w chance. Very worried about Boston Bob
MF: Very sweet on Boston Bob.
TS: Fox Appeal e/w is her main pick though the rest of the panel are not keen!
AC: Notes that Brindisi Breeze will want softer ground.
NO: Keen on BB's chances. Big mentions to Sea of Thunder and Benefficient.

Gold Cup:

MF: Long Run win - will benefit from the extra 2f. Likes the e/w chances of Synchronized.
AC: Same as Mick Fitz. Also gives Burton Port a chance.
NO: Very similar thoughts. Long Run win, Synchronized e/w.
GE: Thinks Long Run will win but would do so by 10 lengths if fitted with blinkers.
TS: Big mention to Midnight Chase's e/w chances.

Others:

GE: Doesn't give Dirar a chance in the County Hurdle. Thinks Plan A may have an e/w chance in the same race.
GE: Very keen on the chances of his horse Toner d'Oudairies in the Martin Pipe. Possibly his best chance.
MF: Keen on the chances of Bourne in the Martin Pipe.     

Best bets of the Festival:

AC: Zarkander e/w
MF: Boston Bob
GE: Sizing Europe
NO: Boston Bob
TS: Fox Appeal e/w
Report Glossy March 12, 2012 12:27 AM GMT
the yomper, I don't think so. If he did, I missed it I'm afraid!
Report the yomper March 12, 2012 12:32 AM GMT
Thanks anyway with the drying ground i thought the beast has a chance
Report stevo1 March 12, 2012 1:30 AM GMT
Cheers glossy good stuff best of luck for forthcoming week.
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