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Angel Gabrial
10 Mar 12 20:25
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Date Joined: 09 May 05
| Topic/replies: 22,888 | Blogger: Angel Gabrial's blog
Everybody is crabbing his performance in the Supreme last year yet he ran to 149 which is 4lb higher than his previous best.

Now then this is not rocket science but if he runs to his mark or improves he wins the Arkle.  The horse actually improved at Cheltenham.

How do you like those apples!!Cool
Pause Switch to Standard View Did Sprinter Sacre actually run to...
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Report andy85 March 10, 2012 8:36 PM GMT
In my opinion its immaterial.  The horse was always going to be a better chaser and this year will be completely different.
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 8:42 PM GMT
Andy

I am saying that he actually ran his best race at Cheltenham. He probably faded after the last because he was running a blinder for his hurdles ability.

I agree with you Andy.
Report andy85 March 10, 2012 8:47 PM GMT
I wouldn't disagree with that, you are probably right, but I haven't analysed it personally.
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 8:52 PM GMT
These natural chasing types are limited over hurdles. All in all he ran a cracking race last year as a gangly hurdler. Yet i think if he had not run in the Supreme last year he would be 1/2 for the Arkle.

Seems daft to me to crab a horse for running his best race regardless of him fading.
Report judorick March 10, 2012 9:04 PM GMT
chase form is miles better than his hurdles - about 20lbs better give or take the nitpicking

all we need know is that he achieved enough over hurdles to be considered (OR higher than 142 is the key trend from Paul Jones book)
Report OLD DON SHANKS March 10, 2012 9:48 PM GMT
Faded after the last 2011 because it couldn't breathe. Wind op since will win.
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 9:59 PM GMT
The wind op problem is only a theory Shanks. Yet if the op has been of positive effect then he will win by a distance.
Report OLD DON SHANKS March 10, 2012 10:15 PM GMT
you pay your money etc etc
Report duffy March 10, 2012 10:20 PM GMT
thank fook it will be sorted one way or the other soon enoughPlain
Report judorick March 10, 2012 10:21 PM GMT
yes indeed
Report OnTheSnaff March 10, 2012 10:25 PM GMT
So you're just completly disregarding the fact that the other main protagonists wont improve?
Take them rose tinted glasses off
Report judorick March 10, 2012 10:32 PM GMT
say what? I was just agreeing that thank fook it will all be over soon enough

who were you talking to?
Report OnTheSnaff March 10, 2012 10:33 PM GMT
i was refering to the op
Report judorick March 10, 2012 10:35 PM GMT
yes that was gibberish imo, soz OP
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 11:01 PM GMT
No Snaff

The point i was trying to make was that Sprinter Sacre actually performed beyond his rating in the Supreme. So he ran a good race but ran out of gas. So he performed well at Cheltenham not poorly.

Hence the flat track theory is rubbish.
Report duffy March 10, 2012 11:07 PM GMT
angel
the problem isn't whether or not he ran to his best it was what stopped him from running even better, if he travelled well and then there was a gradual period of the horse under pressure that resulted in a fading away that we be ok...we got a horse that travelled well and then we fast forwarded to the tank being empty, it really doesn't matter what the mark was, it was what caused the all too quick expiry...and more to the point , does it still remain?
Report duffy March 10, 2012 11:09 PM GMT
incidentally, i have wondered through this season why the horse hasn't been let any where near cheltenham.
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 11:30 PM GMT
Henderson did the same with Finians Rainbow with no runs at Cheltenham before last years Arkle, i think its just his way of introducing his novice chasers.

Going back to last years Supreme AP is starting to cajole and push before the last hurdle rather than meeting it on the bridle. SS hit that hurdle and landed with no momentum. Who knows if it was his breathing,or he had simply exuded too much energy. AP was not too rough with him though.
Report Eeternaloptimist March 10, 2012 11:31 PM GMT
Angel

Are you suggesting that if he performs to his Supreme mark then he wins the Arkle?

If so I don't follow your logic.
Report judorick March 10, 2012 11:43 PM GMT
whisper it quietly in case I get burned at the stake but ... shh...

McCoy gave the horse a piss poor ride in the Supreme Blush

there's a key moment just after 3 out and Sprinter is going best of all and McCoy makes his way to the front on the bridle at which point Cue Card goes for a run on the inside of him... I think it is Cattermole commentating and he says "and there goes the favourite Cue Card" like he is expecting him to stretch clear from there (this is all from memory although I watched the replay a couple of times last week)

Immediately you can see McCoy react, probably thinking "oh no you don't you facker", and he squeezes Sprinter Sacre and makes him keep tabs with Cue Card down to the second last and last hurdle. The horse was cooked at that point...

Of course it is easy to say with hindsight but I strongly believe that the horse would have responded much better if McCoy had relaxed his hands, stood tall in the saddle and just coasted in behind Cue Card (who looked ****ed to me at the time and I said so to my mate at the time) right down to the last and then asked him for his effort.

Now this is only my opinion so it could be all bollox quite easily but I invite you to watch the replay with my thoughts in your mind and see if you can see where I am coming from

Reckon Geraghty would have got much more out of him myself
Report duffy March 10, 2012 11:48 PM GMT
it was mark johnson commentating and it was more like AANNNDDD TTHHHEERREE  GGOOOEEESSS CCCUUUUUEEEE CCCAARRRD  as he made his assumption that it was race overBlush
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 11:51 PM GMT
EO

No what i am saying is that he has raced only once at Cheltenham but produced his highest OR over hurdles.

He has proven ability at the track. He performs to his best. If he had stormed up the hill last year he would have improved almost a stone. Just a different angle on last years performance.
Report judorick March 10, 2012 11:54 PM GMT
he was bound to produce his highest hurdles rating though - it was a Grade 1 at the Festival
Report Angel Gabrial March 10, 2012 11:55 PM GMT
If he had stormed up the hill last year he would have improved almost a stone.

Expecting too much from him? he was a limited hurdler.
Report Eeternaloptimist March 10, 2012 11:55 PM GMT
One slight quibble. If you watch the replay and ignore the commentary you can quite clearly see SS take it up just before 3 out and put in an almighty leap. I must confess myself puzzled by the line of thinking which has the horse falling in a heap. He didn't. He jumped the third last in front. He jumped the second last just behind Cue Card and despite flattening the last he beat that horse off. Are people suggesting that Cue Card didn't stay?

The most logical explanation is the one gathered from information in the public domain. Hendo thought the horse was still a shell and wanted to give him another year. The owner wanted to go for the supreme. The horse ran with the choke out for much of the way and got into a duel with Cue Card way too far from home having left Al Ferof behind between 3 out and 2 out.

If the horse was 2-1 or even better 3-1 I would have my nuts on him. As it is I will happily cheer on the next great chaser without my money acting as a hinderance.
Report Eeternaloptimist March 10, 2012 11:58 PM GMT
And he was inexperienced and therefore presumably improving. You would naturally expect him to post a best OR surely irrespective of the course?
Report Angel Gabrial March 11, 2012 12:05 AM GMT
Yes to improve but if he had stormed up the hill he would have had to be a finely tuned hurdler, which he never was. He was no were near the finished article.
Report judorick March 11, 2012 12:08 AM GMT
that is exactly the point! He was immature and Henderson said so before hand. In fact he said he wouldn't have run if it was down to him because he knew he wasn't ready so to run 3rd in those circumstances was good

(especially given the fecking pisspoor ride he got off the jockey)
Report Eeternaloptimist March 11, 2012 12:13 AM GMT
Angel

I think we are all agreed to a lesser or greater extent.
Report duffy March 11, 2012 12:15 AM GMT
judo... looking again at the move cue card made up SS inner, i don't really see mccoy over-reacting to it tbh, didn't seem to make any reaction to my eye.
Report Angel Gabrial March 11, 2012 12:17 AM GMT
Yes Jud

This is the point i am trying to hit on. No way should his hurdle for be taken as a judgement as to what he is doing in his chasing career. It is obvious to Hendo and everyone involved with the horse that he is now in full bloom.

The horse should be given credit for leading to the last flight considering he was still immature.
Report judorick March 11, 2012 12:22 AM GMT
Yes I am not bothered about it at all, was marking time til he jumped fences

he just has to produce what he is capable of to win on tuesday but that is what people are hoping won't happen and they cling to things like the Supreme and the fact that he hasn't come off the bridle yet as some sort of lifebelt
Report Angel Gabrial March 11, 2012 12:24 AM GMT
Just one more thing

Last year before the Supreme, Spirit Son was the automatic choice ahead of SS.

Strange how now no other horse in their yard compares to Sprinter Sacre. They know he is special.
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