Cheltenham Festival
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I supply these notes for a disabled man I know who was paralysed a few years ago and can no longer speak, his carer reads the notes to him so he can enjoy the raciing, thought you might be interested, please no nasty comments, it's not finished yet:
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Won last time out (13/15)
Last prep run within 45 days of festival race (10/11)
Age 5 or 6 (8/10)
Have not achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (strange one)
Achieved a Topspeed rating > 105
Achieved an RPR of 137+
Finished no worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (9/10)
Won at least 50% of their hurdle races (9/10)
Had 2-4 races this season (10/10)
Montbazon & Tetlami score 8/9 and Darlan 7/9
Darlan ran in the Zarkandar race and fell 2 from home when going well. He might have won and had he done so he would be a definite bet. Last time out fallers have a statistically terrible record (do worse than expectation) over many years and so although I really like the horse he is strictly dismissed... but don't be surprised if he runs well because he is nice
Champion Hurdle
Preferred age 6-8
24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience)
previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive
a win during the current season is highly desirable
Binocular matches 8
Hurricane Fly 7
Zarkandar 7
winning your prep race is almost a pre requisite for a Champion Hurdler so dimiss those that got beat. Binocular is a former Champion and matches the most trends o he has to be the bet and he won in impressive style on his prep run. Although we love Zarkandar we must bet with our heads and he has some horrible stats to overcome. For example, out of the last 87 five year olds to run in the race, only one has won and there have been plenty in the race shorter than 5/1. Next year for him unless Grandouet does it.
Binocular is an old favourite and the Champion jockey rides him. Will be a massive roar if he comes home first. The odds on favourite Hurricane Fly is a serious horse and will take some beating but Bino can do it. Go on my son
The Arkle Trophy
I won't bother with the trends here, even though the selection fits all of them comfortably and remains unbeaten in 3 starts all of which have poked the eye out in their brilliance, just sit back and enjoy what I hope will be a master class from the “Black Aeroplane” that is Sprinter Sacre. This horse put up the best run I have ever seen by a novice chaser when winning in Grade 2 at Newbury and he is the most exciting prospect. Fingers crossed for a jaw dropping display of steeple chasing – one of the highlights of the meeting so do not miss
The World hurdle
Big Bucks is officially the best horse in training and is going for an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle in a row. Unbeaten in 15 consequetive races he will rightly be a short price. Not only is he the best horse in the race, ridden by a sublime jockey and trained by the best trainer in the land he is the only horse in the line up that meets every single trend and stat that I can find. Unopposable
The Queen Mother Champion Chase
One of my favourite races and one that has provided class, excitement, thrills and plenty of winners. Some trends
9 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chaser who had won an Arkle and previously finished in first 3 in a Queen Mother)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was 2nd in only previous grade 1)
7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, other fell on only previous course start)
28 of 30 winners were at least placed last time out
29 of 30 winners were priced 10/1 or less
9 of 10 winners aged 9 or under
Reigning champion Sizing Europe is a class act, an Arkle winner, a Champion Chaser and a very high class performer. Frankly he has scared off most of his opposition and he fits 9 of the 10 trends. Next nearest is Big Zeb on 7/10 who was summarily dismissed in this race last year. Enjoy watching this superstar pulverising his foes
The Triumph Hurdle
Championship race for 4 year olds and you need to be a winning juvenile running in the best races, rarely getting beat and with some experience behind you, Group horses off the flat do well too
Here we have two lovely contenders in Grumeti, who was trained in Newmarket by Michael Bell, and Baby Mix winner of the best trial the Adonis hurdle at Kempton. These two fit the profile and will give us a run for our money
The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
3 mile race for staying novices and you need to be a proven stayer with class and speed. Most of the runners here are embryonic staying chasers of the future and most lack the speed to win here.
3 horses stand out on all form and trends: Boston Bob, Mount Benbulben and Brindisi Breeze.
Paul Nicholls apparently has a very high opinion of his Rocky Creek and it would be no surprise to see this one get gambled if the dogs are barking but he lacks several of the typical characteristics of a winner of this race.
Boston Bob has already dispatched Mount Benbulben with ease and Brindisi Breeze needs much softer going
and Boston Bob rates one of the best bets at the meeting IF he lines up here
Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle
A huge entry but the vast majority are nowhere near good enough and can be easily dismissed in several easy steps:
First or second in all completed hurdles starts gets rid of plenty
Dismiss 4 year olds and 8 year olds and older
Must have been 1st or 2nd in a Grade 2 or Grade 1 race (plenty have not)
Must have won at 2 and a half miles
Doing this leaves just 5 horses and two of those are not running in this race leaving us with
Simonsig (a beautiful grey from Nicky Henderson, travels sweetly will be cruising with half a mile to go)
Monksland Irish trained who has been lightly raced, powerful owner
Nelson's Bridge also Nicky Henderson but only raced twice, unlikely winner
Cheering on the grey with a saver on Monksland
JLT Speciality Handicap Chase
We have backed Quantitativeeasing because of the Spinal Research race on 10th December which we have identified as red hot form. Strictly he has it all to do off top weight but he is a really really nice horse, only 7 years old and he could be a Gold Cup or Grand National in a couple of years
The remainder are really difficult and there factors are very complicated.
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 or above
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in all 3 h’cap chases over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or below, last 4 winners were rated 142 or 143.
7 of 10 winners had posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers that had run in previous festival: 1 placed in this and other 13th in previous Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle, other had not run in a better than a class 3)
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
Having applied all this I have come up with some speculative selections:- Baile Anrai, Blenheim Brook, Fruity O'Rooney and Billie Magern fit the profile best but the last named has a terrible track record in fields greater than 9 runners and is dismissed
The Cheltenham Gold Cup
The Blue Ribband event of the whole festival featuring living legend Kauto Star, winner of 2 Gold Cups and the first and only horse to regain the title after failing to defend it, 5 King Georges and proudly supported by more supporters than Man Utd it seems. If he wins the race the place will erupt, there won't be a dry eye and he will go down as truly one of the all time greats (he already is but this would carve his name forever in legend). Now 12 years old he has rolled back the years this season by winning two Grade 1 races. There have been some worries in the last couple of weeks because the horse had a bad fall in training and has taken a bit longer than normal to recover. His participation or not will decided on Monday. Fingers crossed, every one wants him to run!
Facing him is Long Run the defending Champion who has been runner up in both of Kauto Stars wins (both races at 3 miles) and is now expected to reverse that form and come out on top of Kauto with a stiffer track and an extra quarter mile to run. He is a strongly fancied favourite and is ridden by Sam Waley Cohen who is the son of the horses owner, an amateur jockey and a dentist! Don't let that worry you as he has already won a Gold Cup, a King George and been second in the Grand National.
The race is eagerly anticipated by National Hunt fans and the vast majority will be shocked if any horse other than the two stars wins the race. We however will play the trends and probabilities and frankly both horses face a very tough task
based on the history of the race. Kauto Star is far too old to be winning a race at the Festival, let alone the toughest race at the meeting. In the last 10 years 288 horses aged 11 or 12 have run at the Festival and just 5 have won despite several of those being red hot favourites. I would be shocked if Kauto Star manages to overcome this trend.
Long Run is the defending Champion and that in itself has been enough to put the mockers on all but one of the previous 40 winners of the race despite many defending Champions returning seemingly in good form and even starting at very short odds. 2/1 about a defending Champ in this race is a very bad bet.
Of course each horse DOES have a finite chance and they are perceived to be “well clear” on form from the rest of the runners. However, there is a horse that its all the required trends including age, has run in the right races, has previously beaten Long Run in a Championship race at Cheltenham, is certain to appreciate the stiff demands of the track and distance, is trained and ridden by top people and has never placed worse than second in any steeplechase! The only reason he is not so well known is because the poor lad had to have a year and half off the track with a stress fracture after running a mighty race to be second in the Hennessey. Had that not happened he might already be a Gold Cup winner. His name is Burton Port and I am convinced he will run a huge race. Interestingly for a staying chaser he is certainly smaller and slighter built than the average horse, he floats over the ground and jumps well bless him. Cheer him on because I am investing heavily.
Whatever happens this is the highlight of the Festival and possibly the year! Enjoy
The Ryan Air Chase
Grade 1 race over 2 mile 5 furlongs which favours horses with proven form at the track, the distance and in certain trials.
The Pipe yard have a great record, winners of the Paddy Power and December Gold Cups often run well and it suits horses aged 7 to 9.
Three horses stand out on the trends and they are Great Endeavour (Pipe trained and won a key trial by 7 lengths over the course and distance, more to come, races prominently, also a previous Cheltenham Festival winner which is imporatant), Medermit (fits all trends, placed 2nd in Grade 1 at the Festival, 2nd in a key trial and a Grade 1 on last start)
Poquelin (fits all the trends, placed in the race twice, needs fast going ideally)
I expect to see the almost white Great Endeavour near the front and jumping well early. He has made mistakes in a couple of races this year (1 costly, 1 not at all) and he needs to cut that out if he is to win. I would think he needs to either lead jumping the last or be bearing down fast and jump into the lead there. Medermit will be held up in mid division normally, tracking the leaders and also needs to avoid the energy sapping mistakes that can creep in round this track. The faster they go in the first mile the better for him because he will be staying on strongly at the end and needs the front runners to run out of puff with a quarter mile to go. Poquelin is very similar and needs a strongly run race on good ground which incidentally is what Great Endeavour will provide.
There are plenty of very serious rivals in here and it is a very competitive race. Riverside Theatre and Sommersby are both recent Grade 1 winners and either could win. Both have done their best performances at Ascot which is a different type of test and I am happy to take them on.
The two biggest dangers to the Brits are Noble Prince and Rubi Light – both Grade 1 winners trained in Ireland. Noble Prince won at the Festival in 2011 and Rubi Light was third in this race last year.
Going to be really fierce competition – not to be missed, these guys will be flying round here!!
The RSA Chase
Championship race for Novice staying chasers over 3 miles with very strong trends established over many years
10 of 10 (33 from 36) winners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138 or higher last time
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 10 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had not run under flat rules
Positive if won over fences at Cheltenham
There are 4 horses that match these trends and they are Sir des Champs, Bobs Worth, Join Together and First Lieutenant. Interestingly, there is a very short priced favourite, Grands Crus, who not only fails to match the above trends perfectly but has a major negative to overcome. He won the worst trial for this race. Of 17 winners of that trial, the Feltham at Kempton, to run in this race none have managed to win despite many of them being strongly fancied in the betting. Not even the future King George and Gold Cup winner Long Run managed to do the Feltham/RSA double. Grands Crus will need to be a superstar to win here – 7/4? No thanks
I like Join Together and Bobs Worth at the prices
National Hunt Chase
4 miles, novice chasers and Amateur Jockeys? Whoa doesn't seem like a great race but this is the longest standing race at the meeting and you need a very specific type of horse for this. They have to have had a few runs over fences (at least 3), they need to have been winning or coming second at worst, they need to have won at 3 miles and they need to have reached a certain level of performance in terms of handicap ratings.
Despite the large field there is only one horse that I can consider here: Harry the Viking trained by Paul Nicholls has all the attributes you want as is to be ridden by crack amateur rider William Biddick. Looks a cracking bet
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Won last time out (13/15)
Last prep run within 45 days of festival race (10/11)
Age 5 or 6 (8/10)
Have not achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (strange one)
Achieved a Topspeed rating > 105
Achieved an RPR of 137+
Finished no worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (9/10)
Won at least 50% of their hurdle races (9/10)
Had 2-4 races this season (10/10)
Montbazon & Tetlami score 8/9 and Darlan 7/9
Darlan ran in the Zarkandar race and fell 2 from home when going well. He might have won and had he done so he would be a definite bet. Last time out fallers have a statistically terrible record (do worse than expectation) over many years and so although I really like the horse he is strictly dismissed... but don't be surprised if he runs well because he is nice
Champion Hurdle
Preferred age 6-8
24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience)
previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive
a win during the current season is highly desirable
Binocular matches 8
Hurricane Fly 7
Zarkandar 7
winning your prep race is almost a pre requisite for a Champion Hurdler so dimiss those that got beat. Binocular is a former Champion and matches the most trends o he has to be the bet and he won in impressive style on his prep run. Although we love Zarkandar we must bet with our heads and he has some horrible stats to overcome. For example, out of the last 87 five year olds to run in the race, only one has won and there have been plenty in the race shorter than 5/1. Next year for him unless Grandouet does it.
Binocular is an old favourite and the Champion jockey rides him. Will be a massive roar if he comes home first. The odds on favourite Hurricane Fly is a serious horse and will take some beating but Bino can do it. Go on my son
The Arkle Trophy
I won't bother with the trends here, even though the selection fits all of them comfortably and remains unbeaten in 3 starts all of which have poked the eye out in their brilliance, just sit back and enjoy what I hope will be a master class from the “Black Aeroplane” that is Sprinter Sacre. This horse put up the best run I have ever seen by a novice chaser when winning in Grade 2 at Newbury and he is the most exciting prospect. Fingers crossed for a jaw dropping display of steeple chasing – one of the highlights of the meeting so do not miss
The World hurdle
Big Bucks is officially the best horse in training and is going for an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle in a row. Unbeaten in 15 consequetive races he will rightly be a short price. Not only is he the best horse in the race, ridden by a sublime jockey and trained by the best trainer in the land he is the only horse in the line up that meets every single trend and stat that I can find. Unopposable
The Queen Mother Champion Chase
One of my favourite races and one that has provided class, excitement, thrills and plenty of winners. Some trends
9 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chaser who had won an Arkle and previously finished in first 3 in a Queen Mother)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was 2nd in only previous grade 1)
7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, other fell on only previous course start)
28 of 30 winners were at least placed last time out
29 of 30 winners were priced 10/1 or less
9 of 10 winners aged 9 or under
Reigning champion Sizing Europe is a class act, an Arkle winner, a Champion Chaser and a very high class performer. Frankly he has scared off most of his opposition and he fits 9 of the 10 trends. Next nearest is Big Zeb on 7/10 who was summarily dismissed in this race last year. Enjoy watching this superstar pulverising his foes
The Triumph Hurdle
Championship race for 4 year olds and you need to be a winning juvenile running in the best races, rarely getting beat and with some experience behind you, Group horses off the flat do well too
Here we have two lovely contenders in Grumeti, who was trained in Newmarket by Michael Bell, and Baby Mix winner of the best trial the Adonis hurdle at Kempton. These two fit the profile and will give us a run for our money
The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
3 mile race for staying novices and you need to be a proven stayer with class and speed. Most of the runners here are embryonic staying chasers of the future and most lack the speed to win here.
3 horses stand out on all form and trends: Boston Bob, Mount Benbulben and Brindisi Breeze.
Paul Nicholls apparently has a very high opinion of his Rocky Creek and it would be no surprise to see this one get gambled if the dogs are barking but he lacks several of the typical characteristics of a winner of this race.
Boston Bob has already dispatched Mount Benbulben with ease and Brindisi Breeze needs much softer going
and Boston Bob rates one of the best bets at the meeting IF he lines up here
Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle
A huge entry but the vast majority are nowhere near good enough and can be easily dismissed in several easy steps:
First or second in all completed hurdles starts gets rid of plenty
Dismiss 4 year olds and 8 year olds and older
Must have been 1st or 2nd in a Grade 2 or Grade 1 race (plenty have not)
Must have won at 2 and a half miles
Doing this leaves just 5 horses and two of those are not running in this race leaving us with
Simonsig (a beautiful grey from Nicky Henderson, travels sweetly will be cruising with half a mile to go)
Monksland Irish trained who has been lightly raced, powerful owner
Nelson's Bridge also Nicky Henderson but only raced twice, unlikely winner
Cheering on the grey with a saver on Monksland
JLT Speciality Handicap Chase
We have backed Quantitativeeasing because of the Spinal Research race on 10th December which we have identified as red hot form. Strictly he has it all to do off top weight but he is a really really nice horse, only 7 years old and he could be a Gold Cup or Grand National in a couple of years
The remainder are really difficult and there factors are very complicated.
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 or above
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in all 3 h’cap chases over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or below, last 4 winners were rated 142 or 143.
7 of 10 winners had posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers that had run in previous festival: 1 placed in this and other 13th in previous Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle, other had not run in a better than a class 3)
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
Having applied all this I have come up with some speculative selections:- Baile Anrai, Blenheim Brook, Fruity O'Rooney and Billie Magern fit the profile best but the last named has a terrible track record in fields greater than 9 runners and is dismissed
The Cheltenham Gold Cup
The Blue Ribband event of the whole festival featuring living legend Kauto Star, winner of 2 Gold Cups and the first and only horse to regain the title after failing to defend it, 5 King Georges and proudly supported by more supporters than Man Utd it seems. If he wins the race the place will erupt, there won't be a dry eye and he will go down as truly one of the all time greats (he already is but this would carve his name forever in legend). Now 12 years old he has rolled back the years this season by winning two Grade 1 races. There have been some worries in the last couple of weeks because the horse had a bad fall in training and has taken a bit longer than normal to recover. His participation or not will decided on Monday. Fingers crossed, every one wants him to run!
Facing him is Long Run the defending Champion who has been runner up in both of Kauto Stars wins (both races at 3 miles) and is now expected to reverse that form and come out on top of Kauto with a stiffer track and an extra quarter mile to run. He is a strongly fancied favourite and is ridden by Sam Waley Cohen who is the son of the horses owner, an amateur jockey and a dentist! Don't let that worry you as he has already won a Gold Cup, a King George and been second in the Grand National.
The race is eagerly anticipated by National Hunt fans and the vast majority will be shocked if any horse other than the two stars wins the race. We however will play the trends and probabilities and frankly both horses face a very tough task
based on the history of the race. Kauto Star is far too old to be winning a race at the Festival, let alone the toughest race at the meeting. In the last 10 years 288 horses aged 11 or 12 have run at the Festival and just 5 have won despite several of those being red hot favourites. I would be shocked if Kauto Star manages to overcome this trend.
Long Run is the defending Champion and that in itself has been enough to put the mockers on all but one of the previous 40 winners of the race despite many defending Champions returning seemingly in good form and even starting at very short odds. 2/1 about a defending Champ in this race is a very bad bet.
Of course each horse DOES have a finite chance and they are perceived to be “well clear” on form from the rest of the runners. However, there is a horse that its all the required trends including age, has run in the right races, has previously beaten Long Run in a Championship race at Cheltenham, is certain to appreciate the stiff demands of the track and distance, is trained and ridden by top people and has never placed worse than second in any steeplechase! The only reason he is not so well known is because the poor lad had to have a year and half off the track with a stress fracture after running a mighty race to be second in the Hennessey. Had that not happened he might already be a Gold Cup winner. His name is Burton Port and I am convinced he will run a huge race. Interestingly for a staying chaser he is certainly smaller and slighter built than the average horse, he floats over the ground and jumps well bless him. Cheer him on because I am investing heavily.
Whatever happens this is the highlight of the Festival and possibly the year! Enjoy
The Ryan Air Chase
Grade 1 race over 2 mile 5 furlongs which favours horses with proven form at the track, the distance and in certain trials.
The Pipe yard have a great record, winners of the Paddy Power and December Gold Cups often run well and it suits horses aged 7 to 9.
Three horses stand out on the trends and they are Great Endeavour (Pipe trained and won a key trial by 7 lengths over the course and distance, more to come, races prominently, also a previous Cheltenham Festival winner which is imporatant), Medermit (fits all trends, placed 2nd in Grade 1 at the Festival, 2nd in a key trial and a Grade 1 on last start)
Poquelin (fits all the trends, placed in the race twice, needs fast going ideally)
I expect to see the almost white Great Endeavour near the front and jumping well early. He has made mistakes in a couple of races this year (1 costly, 1 not at all) and he needs to cut that out if he is to win. I would think he needs to either lead jumping the last or be bearing down fast and jump into the lead there. Medermit will be held up in mid division normally, tracking the leaders and also needs to avoid the energy sapping mistakes that can creep in round this track. The faster they go in the first mile the better for him because he will be staying on strongly at the end and needs the front runners to run out of puff with a quarter mile to go. Poquelin is very similar and needs a strongly run race on good ground which incidentally is what Great Endeavour will provide.
There are plenty of very serious rivals in here and it is a very competitive race. Riverside Theatre and Sommersby are both recent Grade 1 winners and either could win. Both have done their best performances at Ascot which is a different type of test and I am happy to take them on.
The two biggest dangers to the Brits are Noble Prince and Rubi Light – both Grade 1 winners trained in Ireland. Noble Prince won at the Festival in 2011 and Rubi Light was third in this race last year.
Going to be really fierce competition – not to be missed, these guys will be flying round here!!
The RSA Chase
Championship race for Novice staying chasers over 3 miles with very strong trends established over many years
10 of 10 (33 from 36) winners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138 or higher last time
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 10 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had not run under flat rules
Positive if won over fences at Cheltenham
There are 4 horses that match these trends and they are Sir des Champs, Bobs Worth, Join Together and First Lieutenant. Interestingly, there is a very short priced favourite, Grands Crus, who not only fails to match the above trends perfectly but has a major negative to overcome. He won the worst trial for this race. Of 17 winners of that trial, the Feltham at Kempton, to run in this race none have managed to win despite many of them being strongly fancied in the betting. Not even the future King George and Gold Cup winner Long Run managed to do the Feltham/RSA double. Grands Crus will need to be a superstar to win here – 7/4? No thanks
I like Join Together and Bobs Worth at the prices
National Hunt Chase
4 miles, novice chasers and Amateur Jockeys? Whoa doesn't seem like a great race but this is the longest standing race at the meeting and you need a very specific type of horse for this. They have to have had a few runs over fences (at least 3), they need to have been winning or coming second at worst, they need to have won at 3 miles and they need to have reached a certain level of performance in terms of handicap ratings.
Despite the large field there is only one horse that I can consider here: Harry the Viking trained by Paul Nicholls has all the attributes you want as is to be ridden by crack amateur rider William Biddick. Looks a cracking bet
Show More
That's very kind of you to do that Judo.
It looks very interesting. I'll read it later after the racing
It looks very interesting. I'll read it later after the racing
Good write up. Enjoyed reading it.
Surprised that the horse that's won the Ryanair for the last 2 seasons and lines up again this year does not even warrant a mention though!
Surprised that the horse that's won the Ryanair for the last 2 seasons and lines up again this year does not even warrant a mention though!
sorry but AR is not on my radar in the slightest, if he wins you can all shoot me down but I cannot have him despite the fact that he has defied the odds consistently
Agree about Albertas Run judo, though partly for different reasons. Far from an ideal prep with his injury and maybe not as good at 11 but even if he was as good as previous years I very much doubt he can win this. Three Cheltenham festival wins is impressive, but all 3 have been won in surprisingly slow times where there has not been a strong pace, Raceform SRs for his 2 Ryan wins of 111 and 112 are between 3 and 6Ls per mile short of the times achieved in the 5 previous runnings. A faster pace looks assured this time, especially with Little Josh now a confirmed runner!
One point though on the CGC, you need to be geographically specific on KS having more fans than MU. Probably true in Manchester, especially where there is an M, OL or SK postcode, but I spend a lot of time in Bangkok and MU shirts outnumber KS shirts by at least 1000 to 1.
One point though on the CGC, you need to be geographically specific on KS having more fans than MU. Probably true in Manchester, especially where there is an M, OL or SK postcode, but I spend a lot of time in Bangkok and MU shirts outnumber KS shirts by at least 1000 to 1.
gives him something to cheer on mentally and some pleasure when knows I've backed a winner - went mental when Zarkandar won the Betfair according to his missus
That was a very good read...I hope your friend enjoys it.
I'm happy to see you think Binocular has a real chance of beating The Fly.
I'm happy to see you think Binocular has a real chance of beating The Fly.
well I only hope so red adair
probability puts him on a short list of two so I can't not back him
probability puts him on a short list of two so I can't not back him
If Binocular can only come second I'll still be celebrating 
not meaning to be rude but found this read very basic and pretty unimaginative. sure you will get a few winners as most of the favourites have been mentioned, just hope you get enough.
its written for the benefit of a disabled man you ****ing p r i c k!!
and there are months of work in the selections, many backed at bigger prices and my main bets are Great Endeavour, Medermit, Burton Port
unimaginative??
FECK OFF
and there are months of work in the selections, many backed at bigger prices and my main bets are Great Endeavour, Medermit, Burton Port
unimaginative??
FECK OFF
This is 'alexmillwall' who was tipping Peddler's Cross for the Arkle a couple of days ago (post announcement) - not thr sharpest 
Judo take no notice matey always one fickin clown, enjoy the week mate and good luck on a few of them myself.
Yes judo, ignore the moron. One of the johnny come latelys who becomes a racing expert for one week every year.
A good interesting read there.
I'm already on Burton Port e/w and Binocular e/w.
I think Balder Succes will take some beating in the TH
I'm already on Burton Port e/w and Binocular e/w.
I think Balder Succes will take some beating in the TH
"not meaning to be rude but found this read very basic and pretty unimaginative. sure you will get a few winners as most of the favourites have been mentioned, just hope you get enough."
alexmillwall, I cannot believe you posted this.
It was written for someone who is probably not so clued up about the racing as some of us on here.
I am very clued up about racing and I found it most interesting and informative, one of the best Cheltenham write-ups I've read so far, and I've read loads!
alexmillwall, I cannot believe you posted this.
It was written for someone who is probably not so clued up about the racing as some of us on here.
I am very clued up about racing and I found it most interesting and informative, one of the best Cheltenham write-ups I've read so far, and I've read loads!
thanks Red
the poor guy is a fan but he can't do anything for himself and gets very little excitement, the idea was to give him some for a few days - had a massive stroke, terrible brain damage and all that
the poor guy is a fan but he can't do anything for himself and gets very little excitement, the idea was to give him some for a few days - had a massive stroke, terrible brain damage and all that
Agreed, enjoy all this stats stuff.(Stats don't lie!) Nice read.
Also agree that binocular @5/1 is serious bet compared to the fav, visually much more impressive of late, and at the prices surely the value.
Also agree that binocular @5/1 is serious bet compared to the fav, visually much more impressive of late, and at the prices surely the value.
good stuff judo hope miami is treating you well...
well not as hock deep as usual as haven't seen as many edges and wanted to play on race day...
but couldn't resist quevega at 5/4 sizing at 9/4 and have just started backing tetlami in the roulette race...just like him and feel a big field round this track will be right up his alley and think darlan is nicely holding his price up and am happy to accommodate...
have a small bet on great endeavour which would of been bigger but for the fact the race hasn't cut up as i wanted it to...
becauseicantsee is my biggest wager at around 16's in the fulke walwyn, this is his race and and very confident of a huge run, love the amateur races...
am starting to fancy alfie spinner in the 4 miler as think he ran a top race the last day and step up in trip will suit, the only problem i have he is a prominent racer and i like a hold up horse in this race and would be going against what i believe in but i like him...teaforthree also appeals...the 18 day break isn't ideal but just like him...the problem with him also is he seems to like to dominate also so maybe need to reevaluate the race as strongsbows legend also likes to dominate so see lots of pace here...it will come to me
well not as hock deep as usual as haven't seen as many edges and wanted to play on race day...
but couldn't resist quevega at 5/4 sizing at 9/4 and have just started backing tetlami in the roulette race...just like him and feel a big field round this track will be right up his alley and think darlan is nicely holding his price up and am happy to accommodate...
have a small bet on great endeavour which would of been bigger but for the fact the race hasn't cut up as i wanted it to...
becauseicantsee is my biggest wager at around 16's in the fulke walwyn, this is his race and and very confident of a huge run, love the amateur races...
am starting to fancy alfie spinner in the 4 miler as think he ran a top race the last day and step up in trip will suit, the only problem i have he is a prominent racer and i like a hold up horse in this race and would be going against what i believe in but i like him...teaforthree also appeals...the 18 day break isn't ideal but just like him...the problem with him also is he seems to like to dominate also so maybe need to reevaluate the race as strongsbows legend also likes to dominate so see lots of pace here...it will come to me
"the poor guy is a fan but he can't do anything for himself and gets very little excitement, the idea was to give him some for a few days - had a massive stroke, terrible brain damage and all that"
That's awful, Judo.
Hope he enjoys his week, he'll certainly get plenty of excitement!
That's awful, Judo.
Hope he enjoys his week, he'll certainly get plenty of excitement!
its Indian Wells California, Miami is up next mate - it's only just getting started today so will be up all night on the live video trading prices to nick some funds for chelters
Great Endeavour at 14s is my biggest win
Burton Port 14s, 12s, 10s and went back in today at 8s when it became clear GC is not going is next
Medermit at 16s is my next best
then Sprinter Sacre at 9/4 average
will play the others at the time
Great Endeavour at 14s is my biggest win
Burton Port 14s, 12s, 10s and went back in today at 8s when it became clear GC is not going is next
Medermit at 16s is my next best
then Sprinter Sacre at 9/4 average
will play the others at the time
Cannot wait until Hurricane Fly puts that incredibly over rated horse Binocular in his place
have been working to many hours pal, amateur night judo...blame her majesty have been working for the great lady.
also have grumeti for a decent wager at 10's general...
whats the play in the indian wells judo? any outside fancies or will the great man dominate again after the lay off...won't have time to watch it so keep me updated if poss on his progress pal
...blame her majesty have been working for the great lady.also have grumeti for a decent wager at 10's general...
whats the play in the indian wells judo? any outside fancies or will the great man dominate again after the lay off...won't have time to watch it so keep me updated if poss on his progress pal
cannot wait until binocular puts that ridiculously over rated hurriacane fly in his place....
I have smacked the 2.94 at the start and taken 23 average for JMDP as a back to lay mate
Novak will play Murray in the semis (both got a cakewalk) and I am sure he will have his revenge.
The other semi is set to be Rafa/Roger/Potro/Ferrer - Del Boy to play Fed in QF, he can take him out and should face Rafa in the SF if he gets there
those are the bets for me, then I am simply trading prices in running to green up all round
Grumeti and baby Mix are my plays in the Triumph - will be on the day though
Novak will play Murray in the semis (both got a cakewalk) and I am sure he will have his revenge.
The other semi is set to be Rafa/Roger/Potro/Ferrer - Del Boy to play Fed in QF, he can take him out and should face Rafa in the SF if he gets there
those are the bets for me, then I am simply trading prices in running to green up all round
Grumeti and baby Mix are my plays in the Triumph - will be on the day though
del boy starting to come back to his best judo after the wrist problems pal...looking long term the us open could be a play with him...nice price that lets hope the great man can get back on track...
what did you make of baby mix's cheltenham run or should we just right it off? shame grumeti spread a plate fingers crossed...was already fit so as long as he is ok i see no problem there?
what did you make of baby mix's cheltenham run or should we just right it off? shame grumeti spread a plate fingers crossed...was already fit so as long as he is ok i see no problem there?
not worried about either horse mate - stand out contenders for me
thing is the market only sees the 2-0 win by Fed in the last match in Dubai but Del Boy had 6-2 in the TB in the second set. Who knows what would have happened if he held his nerve? Federer served lights out too - was really hard to break although Muzza did it in the final. I will back del Boy to beat Fed if he gets there... has Ferrer to beat first and that wont be easy
Novak up next on Live video after the A-Rod match finishes (they are in final set)
thing is the market only sees the 2-0 win by Fed in the last match in Dubai but Del Boy had 6-2 in the TB in the second set. Who knows what would have happened if he held his nerve? Federer served lights out too - was really hard to break although Muzza did it in the final. I will back del Boy to beat Fed if he gets there... has Ferrer to beat first and that wont be easy
Novak up next on Live video after the A-Rod match finishes (they are in final set)
biffmeister
Date Joined: 04 Mar 01
Add contact
10 Mar 12 22:36
cannot wait until binocular puts that ridiculously over rated hurriacane fly in his place....
you beat me to that one
Judo/Harry Big fan of JM del Potro but think he needs firm ground to be at his best.
Date Joined: 04 Mar 01
Add contact
10 Mar 12 22:36
cannot wait until binocular puts that ridiculously over rated hurriacane fly in his place....
you beat me to that one
Judo/Harry Big fan of JM del Potro but think he needs firm ground to be at his best.
it is rock hard going Thieves just how he likes it...
OH Good point!! Just reminded me, the bounce was very low at Dubai which was against the 6 foot 7 Del Boy. Expecting a higher bounce in IW and that can help his wharfing forehand over power the Fed BH...
nice Thieves, thanks for making me remember that
OH Good point!! Just reminded me, the bounce was very low at Dubai which was against the 6 foot 7 Del Boy. Expecting a higher bounce in IW and that can help his wharfing forehand over power the Fed BH...
nice Thieves, thanks for making me remember that
thieves
well don't want to knock binocular but me personally thought he returned a ridiculous figure last time??170?
i see a few of you guys like him but i have to say wincanton form should always be treated with a degree of caution and for me he didn't beat much...starluck was beaten a long way from home so didn't run to form and i thought celestial never really traveled...you can't knock the way he jumped and looked but i have to say i marked the form down 164+?? but found the race very difficult to put a figure on...don't mean to knock the horse but for me he won a poor champion hurdle and we are now 2 years on...he is 6-1 and doesn't appeal to me at all although proper contenders seem hard to find and my champion hurdle record is deplorable so probably worth dismissing but just thought i would bung an opinion in...for what its worth i feel oscars well will improve for the ground and track and is a little value in the race.
well don't want to knock binocular but me personally thought he returned a ridiculous figure last time??170?
i see a few of you guys like him but i have to say wincanton form should always be treated with a degree of caution and for me he didn't beat much...starluck was beaten a long way from home so didn't run to form and i thought celestial never really traveled...you can't knock the way he jumped and looked but i have to say i marked the form down 164+?? but found the race very difficult to put a figure on...don't mean to knock the horse but for me he won a poor champion hurdle and we are now 2 years on...he is 6-1 and doesn't appeal to me at all although proper contenders seem hard to find and my champion hurdle record is deplorable so probably worth dismissing but just thought i would bung an opinion in...for what its worth i feel oscars well will improve for the ground and track and is a little value in the race.
Name me a Top Quality Horse that Binocular has beaten?
Khyber Kim-admirable horse,but not very good
Celestial Halo-Ditto
punjabi-Ditto
im really struggling to think of any
Khyber Kim-admirable horse,but not very good
Celestial Halo-Ditto
punjabi-Ditto
im really struggling to think of any
Hurricane Fly on the other hand has beat,
peddlers cross-a top class horse,and time will prove this even more
thousand stars-Quite a decent sort as his form proves
Solwhit-under-rated,but a very good horse
oscar whiskey-plenty fancy him to upset Big Bucks,
it's there in black and white
peddlers cross-a top class horse,and time will prove this even more
thousand stars-Quite a decent sort as his form proves
Solwhit-under-rated,but a very good horse
oscar whiskey-plenty fancy him to upset Big Bucks,
it's there in black and white
fair shout on the tennis front judo will read all about it but keep me informed if poss about the great man...movement and whether the forehand is back to its imperious best.
Which current 2m hurdlers would you describe as "top quality" OTS?
He's on court now Harry if you fancy watching a bit on the Live Video on here
looking awesome already
looking awesome already
good stuff - thanks judo but got to be up at 6 to work at kensington palace...will shout you tomoz for update...happy trading pal.
Just Hurricane Fly
Binocular not far behind,But not up to HF standard imo
Binocular not far behind,But not up to HF standard imo
Really good post judo. You've got to fancy Hurricane Fly for the Champion. Looked awesome on his return and you never know which Binocular will turn up. Binocular will have to be at his best and Hurricane Fly will have to be below form in my opinion.
Triumph has about 7 or 8 with a decent chance of winning so I wouldn't discourage anybody's choices in that. Personally I think theres some good vibes coming from Hobbs regarding Sadler's Risk and he isn't one to usually talk up his horses too much. Wasn't fully wound up last time and will be much better come Cheltenham.
Triumph has about 7 or 8 with a decent chance of winning so I wouldn't discourage anybody's choices in that. Personally I think theres some good vibes coming from Hobbs regarding Sadler's Risk and he isn't one to usually talk up his horses too much. Wasn't fully wound up last time and will be much better come Cheltenham.
yeah I got the champion down to two horses - just backing the one at a bigger price - as I say the Fly is gonna take some beating
OTS
Bino beat 165 rated Khyber Kim 3.5L "ran on strongly" fast time figures too from both stopwatch and raceform
HF beat 162 rated Peddlers Cross 1.25L "held on all out" moderate time figures from stopwatch and raceform
which one won a weak champion hurdle?
People forget that 12 months ago Bino was strongly fancied defending champion and that HF was the flake that never turned up...
Bino beat 165 rated Khyber Kim 3.5L "ran on strongly" fast time figures too from both stopwatch and raceform
HF beat 162 rated Peddlers Cross 1.25L "held on all out" moderate time figures from stopwatch and raceform
which one won a weak champion hurdle?
People forget that 12 months ago Bino was strongly fancied defending champion and that HF was the flake that never turned up...
yes people are talking like there is only one possible result
if that is the case why is he not 3s on?
if that is the case why is he not 3s on?
Apologies Bino "in command last, ran on well" not ran on strongly, numbers were right though
judo - yep JMDP definitely not suited by Dubai, had more to do with his defeat than nerve IMO. Probably felt like he couldn't win.
judo - yep JMDP definitely not suited by Dubai, had more to do with his defeat than nerve IMO. Probably felt like he couldn't win.
judo - just wanted to say that this thread shows you to someone of great integrity and compassion and I'm sure you friend will enjoy your notes enormously. Very best of luck this week
As for alexmillwall, you should be ashamed of yourself and anyone with anything about them would come back and apologise
As for alexmillwall, you should be ashamed of yourself and anyone with anything about them would come back and apologise
Im know we aint seen eye to eye on a few occasions Judo,and had words at times,but i have to say i agree wholeheartedly with roobucks comments and wish you all the best mate.
Doubt i shall be on here much now till after Chelt,will be too busy picking winners(hopefully)and no doubt losers as well!!
Have a great festival Judo.
And everyone else ive enjoyed banter with over the last few months.
Doubt i shall be on here much now till after Chelt,will be too busy picking winners(hopefully)and no doubt losers as well!!
Have a great festival Judo.
And everyone else ive enjoyed banter with over the last few months.
LOLLL very touchy people here- i missed the disabled person part.. my mistake sorry.
Glossy the peddlers cross post was very obvious sarcasm you feckin egit. but i guess you are one of those bedraggled no lifers in the bookies 24/7 so i wont blame ya for missing it on this occasion.
i just dont like the sheep mentality here, someone writes a huge amount so it must be gospel, best thing since sliced bread!! sure there was a lot of effort but its all freely available elsewhere (i now know its for your disabled mate so again my error).
and just so people dont think im doing this just to be an a rse, there are some very decent posters on this site... i dont think ive ever disagreed with anything buddilea has written, but filtering the dross out is painful.
Glossy the peddlers cross post was very obvious sarcasm you feckin egit. but i guess you are one of those bedraggled no lifers in the bookies 24/7 so i wont blame ya for missing it on this occasion.
i just dont like the sheep mentality here, someone writes a huge amount so it must be gospel, best thing since sliced bread!! sure there was a lot of effort but its all freely available elsewhere (i now know its for your disabled mate so again my error).
and just so people dont think im doing this just to be an a rse, there are some very decent posters on this site... i dont think ive ever disagreed with anything buddilea has written, but filtering the dross out is painful.
Thieves, Hurricane Fly's champion was much stonger than Binocular's imo, but all entitled to our opinions. Just because it says Hurricane Fly "held on all out" doesn't make the form worse - it just means he was ran closer by better opposition.
The top 5 in Binocular's race were Binocular, Khyber Kim, Zaynar, Celestial Halo and Starluck. The top 5 in Hurricane Fly's race were Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars and Menorah.
Binocular beat 1 Cheltenham Festival winner in Zaynar, whereas Hurricane Fly beat 3 - Peddlers, Thousand Stars and Menorah. There were valid excuses for Solwhit and Go Native in Binocular's race, where there were no hard luck stories in the Fly's.
Not having a go at all though, respect your opinion. With them both A1 and had impressed last time out we'll be able to sort it out once and for all.
The top 5 in Binocular's race were Binocular, Khyber Kim, Zaynar, Celestial Halo and Starluck. The top 5 in Hurricane Fly's race were Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky, Thousand Stars and Menorah.
Binocular beat 1 Cheltenham Festival winner in Zaynar, whereas Hurricane Fly beat 3 - Peddlers, Thousand Stars and Menorah. There were valid excuses for Solwhit and Go Native in Binocular's race, where there were no hard luck stories in the Fly's.
Not having a go at all though, respect your opinion. With them both A1 and had impressed last time out we'll be able to sort it out once and for all.
Doubt i shall be on here much now till after Chelt,will be too busy picking winners(hopefully)and no doubt losers as well!!
Good luck at the Festival Budd - hope Al Ferof, Albertas and Oscar Whisky run big races for you. Enjoyed some good debates in the last couple months but now it's time for action
Good luck at the Festival Budd - hope Al Ferof, Albertas and Oscar Whisky run big races for you. Enjoyed some good debates in the last couple months but now it's time for action
well chief - you are counting up cheltenham festival winners to justify it being a stronger race? A county hurdle winner off a light weight? A winner of a supreme narrowly beating a handicapper? How are they better than Bula winners, Christmas Hurdle winners and a former champion that Bino had behind?
As for the IR comments, that was in context of the ratings of the horses they beat, Bino beat a 165 horse much more impressively than HF beat a 162 horse. And in a much better time. And with a higher RPR.
As for the IR comments, that was in context of the ratings of the horses they beat, Bino beat a 165 horse much more impressively than HF beat a 162 horse. And in a much better time. And with a higher RPR.
well chief - you are counting up cheltenham festival winners to justify it being a stronger race?
The answer to that is yes.
The answer to that is yes.
So you rate the county hurdle winner higher than a bula winner, christmas hurdle winner or one of the irish champion hurdles? What if the winner of the conditional jockeys races ran, would you rate that higher than, say, the berfair hurdle?
1000 stars is a proven G1 2 miler and French Champion Hurdler, Oscar Whisky won numerous graded races, Peddlers ran to a very high mark in the CH and has a live chance n this year's festival.
Khyber Kim never won again, Zaynar has since done nothing, Starluck is a handicapper and Celestial Halo, whilst admirable, is below top quality.
Menorah won at the Festival but his Supreme form is prob better than Zaynar's triumph.
Forgot Celestial Halo won a triumph so Bino actually beat two
Khyber Kim never won again, Zaynar has since done nothing, Starluck is a handicapper and Celestial Halo, whilst admirable, is below top quality.
Menorah won at the Festival but his Supreme form is prob better than Zaynar's triumph.
Forgot Celestial Halo won a triumph so Bino actually beat two
* and go native makes 3 for Bino.
Still better quality in last years though
Still better quality in last years though
Actually WC Khyber Kim won a Grade 1 by 5 lengths next time out, Zaynar became a dog but was pretty bloody useful at the time, Starluck went chasing and has never run in a handicap in his life.
Peddlers Cross was given a very high rating in the CH. One he had never run to before and has run nowhere near to since. Maybe that is a false rating and the 162 he went into the race with is right? The clock would certainly suggest so. In which case, whatever he has achieved in Ireland, HF is only a 164 around Cheltenham.
Peddlers Cross was given a very high rating in the CH. One he had never run to before and has run nowhere near to since. Maybe that is a false rating and the 162 he went into the race with is right? The clock would certainly suggest so. In which case, whatever he has achieved in Ireland, HF is only a 164 around Cheltenham.
Forgot about Khyber Kim, only on my phone so can't check rp site.
As I said we won't agree so lets just leave it at that
As I said we won't agree so lets just leave it at that
ok WC, happy to leave it there.
Budd - good luck from me too. You have made me feel welcome on here, thank you for that. Enjoyed the debate, hope you have a belter. Look forward to your thoughts after the event.
Budd - good luck from me too. You have made me feel welcome on here, thank you for that. Enjoyed the debate, hope you have a belter. Look forward to your thoughts after the event.
Cheers thives,yeh its all been pretty good stuff in the main,and be intersting with peoples thoughts after next week!!
No doubt a bit of humble pie will be on the menu mate
No doubt a bit of humble pie will be on the menu mate
Have a good one thieves.Hope you get plenty of winners
You put a good argument forward and I can't fault you for that.
You put a good argument forward and I can't fault you for that.
I enjoy the debate chief, nothing I like better than a good disagreement throwing the facts around and testing our thoughts. Best of luck to you.
TRAINER Alan King, who will head to the Cheltenham Festival with arguably his strongest ever team, on Sunday gave a upbeat assessment of William Hill Supreme Novices' contender Montbazon, describing his work at home as "unbelievable".
A 10-1 chance with the sponsors for the opening race of the festival on Tuesday, Montbazon impressed with a stylish success at Newbury last time.
King reports the five-year-old to be in cracking order and is equally pleased with Smad Place, who will attempt to beat the mighty Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle on Thursday.
"Nothing is going there in better form than Montbazon," the trainer is quoted on his website.
"Montbazon and Smad Place worked exceptionally well [on Wednesday]. Montbazon has improved so much since he won his prep race at Newbury and his work at home has been unbelievable.
A 10-1 chance with the sponsors for the opening race of the festival on Tuesday, Montbazon impressed with a stylish success at Newbury last time.
King reports the five-year-old to be in cracking order and is equally pleased with Smad Place, who will attempt to beat the mighty Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle on Thursday.
"Nothing is going there in better form than Montbazon," the trainer is quoted on his website.
"Montbazon and Smad Place worked exceptionally well [on Wednesday]. Montbazon has improved so much since he won his prep race at Newbury and his work at home has been unbelievable.
i couldn't give a rate how Binocular beat Khyber Kim,Khyber Kim was an average Hurdler,Simple as that,and so was punjabi
I think Smad Place has a shout in the w/o Big Bucks market.
Looks a very open race w/o the fav.
Looks a very open race w/o the fav.
I have Thousand Stars as tremendous value ew at 4-1 in the w/o market, we know he gets the distance, we know that there isnt much between him and Oscar over 2 1/2 miles
I cant see him being out of the 4 here
I cant see him being out of the 4 here
and how many threads with informed opinions based on trends analysis etc have you posted Dr Crippen?
"The Arkle Trophy
I won't bother with the trends here, even though the selection fits all of them comfortably and remains unbeaten in 3 starts all of which have poked the eye out in their brilliance, just sit back and enjoy what I hope will be a master class from the “Black Aeroplane” that is Sprinter Sacre. This horse put up the best run I have ever seen by a novice chaser when winning in Grade 2 at Newbury and he is the most exciting prospect. Fingers crossed for a jaw dropping display of steeple chasing – one of the highlights of the meeting so do not miss"
I won't bother with the trends here, even though the selection fits all of them comfortably and remains unbeaten in 3 starts all of which have poked the eye out in their brilliance, just sit back and enjoy what I hope will be a master class from the “Black Aeroplane” that is Sprinter Sacre. This horse put up the best run I have ever seen by a novice chaser when winning in Grade 2 at Newbury and he is the most exciting prospect. Fingers crossed for a jaw dropping display of steeple chasing – one of the highlights of the meeting so do not miss"
hey judo - nice result for you there...i've had a little poke on this bottman here at 60...must of hit the glue pot but quite like it and at 60's worth a small bet...
"Interestingly, there is a very short priced favourite, Grands Crus, who not only fails to match the above trends perfectly but has a major negative to overcome. He won the worst trial for this race. Of 17 winners of that trial, the Feltham at Kempton, to run in this race none have managed to win despite many of them being strongly fancied in the betting. Not even the future King George and Gold Cup winner Long Run managed to do the Feltham/RSA double. Grands Crus will need to be a superstar to win here – 7/4? No thanks"
hey judo hows things? what happened to the champ to tonight? poor day for me to say the least...sizing a disaster pal...hope you fared better.
I done well today, Grands Crus was a maximum lay for me, plus backed a couple of winners so not bad. Tomorrow and friday the big days
Djoko was fine, the guy upped his level second set and nicked tie break, Djoko was fine - Fed is in a tough 3rd set right now and it would be nice for him to go out
soz you had a bad one but that QMCC was a farce mate -at Chetenham you couldnt write that
Djoko was fine, the guy upped his level second set and nicked tie break, Djoko was fine - Fed is in a tough 3rd set right now and it would be nice for him to go out
soz you had a bad one but that QMCC was a farce mate -at Chetenham you couldnt write that
ye disappointing judo not saying he would of beaten the winner but had put the pace to the race and losing momentum like that couldn't of helped...racing but would of liked to have seen a level playing field and thought it was disgusting that championship racing came down to that...like i say the winner may have won anyway but thought it inconvenienced sizing more than the winner...
yes bobs worth recouped some but sizing was a big play for me....
glad you nicked a few quid but same tomorrow and friday are the biggest days for me to...
am against sir des champs in the first think the nicholls horse can run well here...thoughts...mccains are running well
yes bobs worth recouped some but sizing was a big play for me....
glad you nicked a few quid but same tomorrow and friday are the biggest days for me to...
am against sir des champs in the first think the nicholls horse can run well here...thoughts...mccains are running well
Well I haven't bothered updating the thread with the additional selections
but Peddlars is well clear on my ratings, Michael Flips might run well for a long way and you could back to lay him.
After doing the Paul Jones book, there is only one horse that qualifies in the Pertemps Final amazingly - BellFlower Boy. All the others that fit the trends failed to get in the race.
Niceonefrankie(in particular) and The Cockney Mackem are my selections in the Byrne Group
and of course Great Endeavour and Medermit in the Ryan Air
but Peddlars is well clear on my ratings, Michael Flips might run well for a long way and you could back to lay him.
After doing the Paul Jones book, there is only one horse that qualifies in the Pertemps Final amazingly - BellFlower Boy. All the others that fit the trends failed to get in the race.
Niceonefrankie(in particular) and The Cockney Mackem are my selections in the Byrne Group
and of course Great Endeavour and Medermit in the Ryan Air
may have detected a bias against the deep hold up horses and in favour of being prominent harry
might not persist when they change track tomoz and of course they are watering tonight so it could all change but look out for front runners staying there
might not persist when they change track tomoz and of course they are watering tonight so it could all change but look out for front runners staying there
yes a good spot and was my undoing in the 4 miler...will be interesting to see in the jewson what happens...nicholls horse looks a rapid improver to me in the first and think he is a tad of value against the top 2 in the market...think sir des champs form needs scrutiny and don't like him here although unbeaten and peddlers should win on the form and trainer flying but is short and had problems pre cheltenham...
without knocking your bellflower boy and his trainer is a proper plot trainer think the horse would like a tad of cut so have to pass him over...across the bay stinks to me here but tricky race.
can see an upset in the plate but no opinion
surprised somersby hasn't been entered in the charity race...awwww
without knocking your bellflower boy and his trainer is a proper plot trainer think the horse would like a tad of cut so have to pass him over...across the bay stinks to me here but tricky race.
can see an upset in the plate but no opinion
surprised somersby hasn't been entered in the charity race...awwww
yeah bellflower just a trends bet at a big price
starting to really fancy great endeavour now
starting to really fancy great endeavour now
yes ground come nice for great endeavour and think a big race he will run...difficult race but think he is up for the challenge...be nice to be proved right with this horse and expect he will be backed tomorrow...
Judorick - Nice to see I agree on Peddlers Cross... Also got Great Endeavour and Niceonefrankie today.
What do you make of the World Hurdle (aside from Big Bucks). I quite like So Young e/w at 10s with the race sponsors without Big Bucks. The reason I say this is last year he nearly won the Neptune Novice hurdle, but for a blunder at the last fence and lost momentum so he got done on the run in up the hill. The race was eventually won by First Lieutenant in a close finish from Rock on Ruby, so on that basis, he's a pretty damn good horse with Cheltenham form.
Would love to hear your thoughts...
What do you make of the World Hurdle (aside from Big Bucks). I quite like So Young e/w at 10s with the race sponsors without Big Bucks. The reason I say this is last year he nearly won the Neptune Novice hurdle, but for a blunder at the last fence and lost momentum so he got done on the run in up the hill. The race was eventually won by First Lieutenant in a close finish from Rock on Ruby, so on that basis, he's a pretty damn good horse with Cheltenham form.
Would love to hear your thoughts...
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539