Cheltenham Festival
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10 Mar 12
12:37
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
Normal Distribution is usually regarded as the most common distribution in statistics. The characteristics of normal distribution are it’s bell shaped curve and symmetry along the mean. If you have the mean (average) rating you think a horse will run to in a race, and the standard deviation, then it is possible to work out the probability of a horse winning. For my figures I have used the standard deviation of 5lbs, meaning I think there’s a 68% chance the horse will run within 5lbs either side of my mean rating and 95% chance that they’ll run within 10lbs of it.
Sizing Europe
Below are the RPRs Sizing Europe has achieved over fences, and then those just around 2 miles. The slash represents the start of a new season.
All: 132, 163. 156, 165, 166, 161 / 151, 160, 165, 176, 172 / 158, 166, 172, 176
2 miles: 156, 165, 166, 161/ 165, 176, 172/ 172, 176
Looking through Sizing Europe’s figures there are two races that stick out like a sore thumb and those are his two ratings that Racing Post awarded him a rating of 176 for. However, I feel that there are plenty of question marks around those two ratings, especially the later at Punchestown in February.
That day he ran against two other rivals, however one was a 100/1 rag and hence when determining his rating the handicapper only had the barometer of one other horse to rate him against. RP figures awarded Big Zeb a rating of 163. However, his jockey reported him “beaten before the first”, how do we know he didn’t run to 160? 150? Or even 140? Of course, there is a chance that this rating is true but I think it’s best to treat it with a great deal of scepticism.
If you do trust the rating. Then ask this to yourself – does it really make sense that a 10 year old in his prep on ground he is supposed to not like would put up his best ever figure? For me, it seems very unlikely, hence I have disregarded this figure.
The second rating, achieved in his Queen Mother win last year is more believable, however, sectionals show that Sizing Europe was at an advantage in how the race panned out. The gallop was decent enough, however, due to the quick ground the race turned into a sprint (shown by bunching of field coming around the home turn). Best placed at the front on the rail, he was able to exploit this. This year he is likely to have horses such as Finian’s Rainbow, Wishful Thinking and Gauvain pestering him from an early stage, and so may not enjoy such a tactical advantage.
Once again maybe this rating was true, however, I find it hard to definitely believe (as the odds seem to suggest) that he is capable of putting in a 175+ performance here. Horses often put up once in a life time performances (Master Minded’s first Queen Mother, Hawk Wing’s Lockinge) which they fail to recreate again, and there’s nothing in Sizing Europe’s form to me which suggests he is very likely to be able to run to a mark of 175+.
The mean rating I would expect Sizing Europe to achieve in this year’s Queen Mother would be around 170. I have this slightly below his 172 rating, because I feel he has had a very hard season so far. This strangely has been something that the press has not picked up on. He has had four runs, more than any other season before Cheltenham, and his prep run was also one week closer to Cheltenham this year.
First time out this season, he would have been beaten but for Rubi Light falling, before then finishing out on his feet over 3 miles. Since then, he has won twice back at 2 miles, however, both times the pace was brutal and even though it may not have looked it, he finished very slowly. According to Nick Mordin, at Sandown such was the early pace that from the third last they took 6 seconds longer to reach the finish than they did in the earlier novice chase and 2.4 seconds longer than in the marathon chase over 3m5f. Similarly at Punchestown, he took 1.1 to get from the last to the finish line than Portrait King did in the three and a half Grand National Trial on the same card.
2 milers are often best fresh, and although there is a chance he may recover in time, there has to be a doubt even if it did look easy to eye. The race was one week closer to the festival compared to last year and on much worse ground. He was also asked to set a strong pace this year compared to last year when he just sat in behind the leaders at a modest pace. Only a few years ago did Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss both disappoint at short odds after visually ‘easy’ prep wins on soft ground. The standard deviation I have used is 5lbs (as I will with all other horses), meaning there is a 68% chance to me that he will run within 5lbs either side of 170.
I think he could run below the 170 and even 165 for the reason given (as well as a fencing error, trouble in running etc.) and above it because I could have slightly misjudged him. However, personally I am confident that he isn’t likely to run to the 175+ that people think he will, and using my parameters there is a 16% ((100-68)/2) chance that he’ll run 175+, which equates to 5/1 – which seems about right.
Finian’s Rainbow
All: 156, 159, 152, 165, 161/ 132, 167
2 miles: 156, 159, 152, 165, 161/ 132, 167
Looking through Finian’s Rainbow’s record it is remarkably similar to Sizing Europe on figures. Both unbeaten before Cheltenham in their Novice career (Sizing Europe had recorded a slightly higher RPR, but he had already run in Grade 1 company) they achieved very similar RPRs in their respective Arkles (Sizing Europe 166 vs Finian’s Rainbow 165). They then both produced an RPR of 161 on their final run of the season post Cheltenham.
Before Cheltenham last year out in open company, Sizing Europe’s top RPR was 165, whereas, Finian’s Rainbows is actually slightly higher at 167. Sizing Europe of course improved to take the Queen Mother crown, however, I see no reason why Finian’s Rainbow should not be able to improve just as much and post a figure in the mid 170s. Sizing Europe improved 11lbs on RPR figures, and although it’s harsh to ask Finian’s to find that much improvement there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to find at least half of that. He will have been trained to peak in the spring and has also been reportedly slow to come to hand this season.
He travelled by far the best in the Victor Chandler and still looked far from 100% at the business end, if he is able to do that when not fully right I see no reason why he should not go very close. Even though some people knock the form, I feel it was a very decent contest.
Whatever people say if you look at Somersby’s form it stands up to the closest scrutiny over 2 miles. His form figures over fences at 16/17f are 1123251. The fifth was in the Queen Mother last year where he made a bad error at a crucial stage and the race wasn’t run to suit at all, and when he came third he reared over in the paddock beforehand which must have had some affect. Apart from that, he has only been beaten by Master Minded (shd) and Sizing Europe (3/4l). Over Course and Distance in the contest last season he had only been beaten a short head by Master Minded (20l clear) who’s form with ‘soft’ in the going over 2 miles is 11111113(injured)111.
The mean rating I’d have Finian’s Rainbow on for this race would be a 168, 1lb higher than he’s shown so far, however, I feel he is capable of far better than that but am also aware that he could run below it.
Big Zeb
All: 130, 151, 144, 149/ 159, 157, 166/ 171, 143, 167, 172/ 160, 165, 169, 171, 175/ 161, 163, 167
2 miles: 149/ 159, 157, 166/ 171, 143, 167, 172/ 160, 165, 169, 171, 175/ 161, 163, 167
A bit harder to weigh up due his disappointing performance behind Sizing Europe the last day. Some horses just don’t go on Heavy Ground as they get older (Yeats a good example) which is the excuse that connections gave. However, he is now 11 years old now and there is a good chance he may have slightly regressed since last season. Barry Geraghty has also chosen Finian’s Rainbow over him this season, this however may be down to pressure on him from Michael Buckley due to the other horses he owns.
The positive about him though, is he has a fantastic trainer and getting them right on the day and this is shown by his peak RPR always coming in the spring. His RPR figures he has recorded this year are 161, 167 and 163, though I believe he may have been slightly overated on his start over Christmas. The horses be beat that day were Noble Prince, Forpadydeplasterer and Scotsirish, who all need much further. I would have him as running to a peak of 163 so far. With some improvement likely to come at Cheltenham I would have him on a mean rating of 167, 4lbs below that what he achieved at the Festival last season.
This means that I think it's a 5/1 chance that he can produce a performance over 172 (ran to 171 in the race last year) which seems about right, given the doubts about his wellbeing and the chance that age is starting to catch up with him.
The other horses are pretty hard to weigh up, for various reasons, so I have just used the prices last matched on Betfair as their ‘fair’ odds.
Below are fair odds that my parameters have produced.
Sizing Europe: 2.9
Finian’s Rainbow: 4.8
Big Zeb: 6.4
Wishful Thinking: 18.0
Somersby: 22.0
Kauto Stone: 25.0
Realt Dubh: 25.0
Blazing Tempo: 40.0
Gauvain: 42.0
I’m So Lucky: 95.0
As can be seen my ‘fair odds’ are actually the same for Big Zeb as the market at the moment and the only discrepancy comes between Sizing Europe and Finian’s Rainbow.
In my view Sizing Europe is massively underpriced and should be around the 15/8 to mark. Finian’s Rainbow has arguably very similar form to that which Sizing Europe had before he win last year, as well as having the much lighter season of the two so far this year. He comes there much the fresher horse (and a year younger) and should not be 5x the price in my book.
My advice would be to lay Sizing Europe for 1pt at Evens and back Finian’s Rainbow for 1pt at 5/1. Meaning your returns are as follows:
Finian’s Rainbow: +6pts
Field: Level
Sizing Europe: - 2pts
Meaning effectively you have 3/1 on Finian’s Rainbow but money back if anything else but Sizing Europe wins. This is much like the ‘draw no bet’ market in a football match, where you back one team but get your stake returned if the end result is a draw.
I’m not saying Sizing Europe can’t win and he is still the most likely winner, however, I think at the moment the market overestimates his chance and what I have mentioned above is one of the better plays in the Championship races at the moment.
Keeping my other figures the same, for Sizing Europe to be the price he is, the mean rating you'd have to expect him to run to be would be 174, which for the reasons mentioned above, is too high.
Sizing Europe
Below are the RPRs Sizing Europe has achieved over fences, and then those just around 2 miles. The slash represents the start of a new season.
All: 132, 163. 156, 165, 166, 161 / 151, 160, 165, 176, 172 / 158, 166, 172, 176
2 miles: 156, 165, 166, 161/ 165, 176, 172/ 172, 176
Looking through Sizing Europe’s figures there are two races that stick out like a sore thumb and those are his two ratings that Racing Post awarded him a rating of 176 for. However, I feel that there are plenty of question marks around those two ratings, especially the later at Punchestown in February.
That day he ran against two other rivals, however one was a 100/1 rag and hence when determining his rating the handicapper only had the barometer of one other horse to rate him against. RP figures awarded Big Zeb a rating of 163. However, his jockey reported him “beaten before the first”, how do we know he didn’t run to 160? 150? Or even 140? Of course, there is a chance that this rating is true but I think it’s best to treat it with a great deal of scepticism.
If you do trust the rating. Then ask this to yourself – does it really make sense that a 10 year old in his prep on ground he is supposed to not like would put up his best ever figure? For me, it seems very unlikely, hence I have disregarded this figure.
The second rating, achieved in his Queen Mother win last year is more believable, however, sectionals show that Sizing Europe was at an advantage in how the race panned out. The gallop was decent enough, however, due to the quick ground the race turned into a sprint (shown by bunching of field coming around the home turn). Best placed at the front on the rail, he was able to exploit this. This year he is likely to have horses such as Finian’s Rainbow, Wishful Thinking and Gauvain pestering him from an early stage, and so may not enjoy such a tactical advantage.
Once again maybe this rating was true, however, I find it hard to definitely believe (as the odds seem to suggest) that he is capable of putting in a 175+ performance here. Horses often put up once in a life time performances (Master Minded’s first Queen Mother, Hawk Wing’s Lockinge) which they fail to recreate again, and there’s nothing in Sizing Europe’s form to me which suggests he is very likely to be able to run to a mark of 175+.
The mean rating I would expect Sizing Europe to achieve in this year’s Queen Mother would be around 170. I have this slightly below his 172 rating, because I feel he has had a very hard season so far. This strangely has been something that the press has not picked up on. He has had four runs, more than any other season before Cheltenham, and his prep run was also one week closer to Cheltenham this year.
First time out this season, he would have been beaten but for Rubi Light falling, before then finishing out on his feet over 3 miles. Since then, he has won twice back at 2 miles, however, both times the pace was brutal and even though it may not have looked it, he finished very slowly. According to Nick Mordin, at Sandown such was the early pace that from the third last they took 6 seconds longer to reach the finish than they did in the earlier novice chase and 2.4 seconds longer than in the marathon chase over 3m5f. Similarly at Punchestown, he took 1.1 to get from the last to the finish line than Portrait King did in the three and a half Grand National Trial on the same card.
2 milers are often best fresh, and although there is a chance he may recover in time, there has to be a doubt even if it did look easy to eye. The race was one week closer to the festival compared to last year and on much worse ground. He was also asked to set a strong pace this year compared to last year when he just sat in behind the leaders at a modest pace. Only a few years ago did Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss both disappoint at short odds after visually ‘easy’ prep wins on soft ground. The standard deviation I have used is 5lbs (as I will with all other horses), meaning there is a 68% chance to me that he will run within 5lbs either side of 170.
I think he could run below the 170 and even 165 for the reason given (as well as a fencing error, trouble in running etc.) and above it because I could have slightly misjudged him. However, personally I am confident that he isn’t likely to run to the 175+ that people think he will, and using my parameters there is a 16% ((100-68)/2) chance that he’ll run 175+, which equates to 5/1 – which seems about right.
Finian’s Rainbow
All: 156, 159, 152, 165, 161/ 132, 167
2 miles: 156, 159, 152, 165, 161/ 132, 167
Looking through Finian’s Rainbow’s record it is remarkably similar to Sizing Europe on figures. Both unbeaten before Cheltenham in their Novice career (Sizing Europe had recorded a slightly higher RPR, but he had already run in Grade 1 company) they achieved very similar RPRs in their respective Arkles (Sizing Europe 166 vs Finian’s Rainbow 165). They then both produced an RPR of 161 on their final run of the season post Cheltenham.
Before Cheltenham last year out in open company, Sizing Europe’s top RPR was 165, whereas, Finian’s Rainbows is actually slightly higher at 167. Sizing Europe of course improved to take the Queen Mother crown, however, I see no reason why Finian’s Rainbow should not be able to improve just as much and post a figure in the mid 170s. Sizing Europe improved 11lbs on RPR figures, and although it’s harsh to ask Finian’s to find that much improvement there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to find at least half of that. He will have been trained to peak in the spring and has also been reportedly slow to come to hand this season.
He travelled by far the best in the Victor Chandler and still looked far from 100% at the business end, if he is able to do that when not fully right I see no reason why he should not go very close. Even though some people knock the form, I feel it was a very decent contest.
Whatever people say if you look at Somersby’s form it stands up to the closest scrutiny over 2 miles. His form figures over fences at 16/17f are 1123251. The fifth was in the Queen Mother last year where he made a bad error at a crucial stage and the race wasn’t run to suit at all, and when he came third he reared over in the paddock beforehand which must have had some affect. Apart from that, he has only been beaten by Master Minded (shd) and Sizing Europe (3/4l). Over Course and Distance in the contest last season he had only been beaten a short head by Master Minded (20l clear) who’s form with ‘soft’ in the going over 2 miles is 11111113(injured)111.
The mean rating I’d have Finian’s Rainbow on for this race would be a 168, 1lb higher than he’s shown so far, however, I feel he is capable of far better than that but am also aware that he could run below it.
Big Zeb
All: 130, 151, 144, 149/ 159, 157, 166/ 171, 143, 167, 172/ 160, 165, 169, 171, 175/ 161, 163, 167
2 miles: 149/ 159, 157, 166/ 171, 143, 167, 172/ 160, 165, 169, 171, 175/ 161, 163, 167
A bit harder to weigh up due his disappointing performance behind Sizing Europe the last day. Some horses just don’t go on Heavy Ground as they get older (Yeats a good example) which is the excuse that connections gave. However, he is now 11 years old now and there is a good chance he may have slightly regressed since last season. Barry Geraghty has also chosen Finian’s Rainbow over him this season, this however may be down to pressure on him from Michael Buckley due to the other horses he owns.
The positive about him though, is he has a fantastic trainer and getting them right on the day and this is shown by his peak RPR always coming in the spring. His RPR figures he has recorded this year are 161, 167 and 163, though I believe he may have been slightly overated on his start over Christmas. The horses be beat that day were Noble Prince, Forpadydeplasterer and Scotsirish, who all need much further. I would have him as running to a peak of 163 so far. With some improvement likely to come at Cheltenham I would have him on a mean rating of 167, 4lbs below that what he achieved at the Festival last season.
This means that I think it's a 5/1 chance that he can produce a performance over 172 (ran to 171 in the race last year) which seems about right, given the doubts about his wellbeing and the chance that age is starting to catch up with him.
The other horses are pretty hard to weigh up, for various reasons, so I have just used the prices last matched on Betfair as their ‘fair’ odds.
Below are fair odds that my parameters have produced.
Sizing Europe: 2.9
Finian’s Rainbow: 4.8
Big Zeb: 6.4
Wishful Thinking: 18.0
Somersby: 22.0
Kauto Stone: 25.0
Realt Dubh: 25.0
Blazing Tempo: 40.0
Gauvain: 42.0
I’m So Lucky: 95.0
As can be seen my ‘fair odds’ are actually the same for Big Zeb as the market at the moment and the only discrepancy comes between Sizing Europe and Finian’s Rainbow.
In my view Sizing Europe is massively underpriced and should be around the 15/8 to mark. Finian’s Rainbow has arguably very similar form to that which Sizing Europe had before he win last year, as well as having the much lighter season of the two so far this year. He comes there much the fresher horse (and a year younger) and should not be 5x the price in my book.
My advice would be to lay Sizing Europe for 1pt at Evens and back Finian’s Rainbow for 1pt at 5/1. Meaning your returns are as follows:
Finian’s Rainbow: +6pts
Field: Level
Sizing Europe: - 2pts
Meaning effectively you have 3/1 on Finian’s Rainbow but money back if anything else but Sizing Europe wins. This is much like the ‘draw no bet’ market in a football match, where you back one team but get your stake returned if the end result is a draw.
I’m not saying Sizing Europe can’t win and he is still the most likely winner, however, I think at the moment the market overestimates his chance and what I have mentioned above is one of the better plays in the Championship races at the moment.
Keeping my other figures the same, for Sizing Europe to be the price he is, the mean rating you'd have to expect him to run to be would be 174, which for the reasons mentioned above, is too high.
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Worst QM for a while. Sizing is head and shoulders above the rest of the field and will win at a canter IMO.
really like your thinking, Alan Potts would be proud of you (Against the Crowd)
I think the odds are more than fair myself because looking at the likely pace scenario means Sizing Europe is going to get the race run exactly to suit and that increases his chance of winning - simply if they let him sit at the front setting his own fractions he will just run away from them
the way to get him beat is to apply pace pressure early and I don't see any of the runners wanting to do that role or being good enough
I won't be betting myself so I shall watch with interest
I think the odds are more than fair myself because looking at the likely pace scenario means Sizing Europe is going to get the race run exactly to suit and that increases his chance of winning - simply if they let him sit at the front setting his own fractions he will just run away from them
the way to get him beat is to apply pace pressure early and I don't see any of the runners wanting to do that role or being good enough
I won't be betting myself so I shall watch with interest
Cant see that pace scenario happen though Judo, both KS and WT will be wanting a bit further and wont let the fav set his own sectionals
that pace scenario is exactly what happened last year and neither KS or WT are within a stone of SE he can set fractions which they won't like but that are still well within his comfort zone
you have to take relative ability into account too
you have to take relative ability into account too
OP is the biggest load of b0llocks i have read on this forum,where do all these people come from and why does this forum attract so many of them
Cheers TFM, what part of it do you not agree with?
Cheers TFM, what part of it do you not agree with?
I don't see you contributing anything of value to the forum though
all your posts just slag others off
come on then, let's see your reasoned argument for anything
all your posts just slag others off
come on then, let's see your reasoned argument for anything
Id have to disagree about last year Judo, Mad Max took up along for a while and they were stacked up coming into the straight, even Somersby wasnt outpaced and was there until they kicked
If you took the times jumping the 1st until the second last it was around 3.20.54(Hand timed)
The Arkle was a bit faster at 3.16-84
If you took the times jumping the 1st until the second last it was around 3.20.54(Hand timed)
The Arkle was a bit faster at 3.16-84
formman,
thats not very nice,must have taken hours of work for the OP to produce that!!
thats not very nice,must have taken hours of work for the OP to produce that!!
Quite, we need more posters with decent write ups rather than people who insult each other
did similar on the champion hurdle thread and the "nailed on ew value" thread
came on saying "you are over/under estimating these horses, your opinion is shitte" on both of them
adds nothing
came on saying "you are over/under estimating these horses, your opinion is shitte" on both of them
adds nothing
Excellent OP, much food for thought. I totally agree that the race could come too soon for SE, especially if he ran to the RPR he was given. If he didn't run to that RPR then he has, as you say, only last year's race at that rating and that was run to suit and may be a false rating too.
I still have a small problem with FR. How progressive is he at 9? And is he a bit of a short runner? But I cannot deny he otherwise profiles very well for this race and certainly prefer him to the 11yo Big Zeb, who looks a spent force now. I'd have to consider Somersby quite seriously if he ran here but reckon I will end up backing FR in spite of my questions.
I still have a small problem with FR. How progressive is he at 9? And is he a bit of a short runner? But I cannot deny he otherwise profiles very well for this race and certainly prefer him to the 11yo Big Zeb, who looks a spent force now. I'd have to consider Somersby quite seriously if he ran here but reckon I will end up backing FR in spite of my questions.
By: This user is online. buddeliea
Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 Add contact | Send message
When: 10 Mar 12 13:59 Joined: Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 5,970 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
formman,
thats not very nice,must have taken hours of work for the OP to produce that!!
Apologies Extreme Conviction,was a little harsh,i wish you all the best at the festival
Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 Add contact | Send message
When: 10 Mar 12 13:59 Joined: Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 5,970 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog
formman,
thats not very nice,must have taken hours of work for the OP to produce that!!
Apologies Extreme Conviction,was a little harsh,i wish you all the best at the festival
its only xmas if things go the way we want them to *finger firmly crossed*
exellent analysis e.c am already on finians and kauto stone and happy enough at this stage good luck.
EC a lot of work there. Not really over-impressed by Finian's form. His first 3 races were probably non events and I am not certain beating Ghizao, Wishful Thinking (in this seasons form) and a novice by 3 3/4 lengths sets the world on fire. Cant see him beating SE and/or BZ. But in my betting career which did not begin yesterday I have wrong at least 5,000 times.
pleased to see someones thoughts arrive at
same conclusion as mine roughly.
my ego satisfied....
but this is really good stuff because
it demonstrates how opinion moulds
tissue price.in the end, value is all that matters
in the long run.
same conclusion as mine roughly.
my ego satisfied....
but this is really good stuff because
it demonstrates how opinion moulds
tissue price.in the end, value is all that matters
in the long run.
Very interesting OP. Good work. I cant decide what to do in this race, think SE wins but not backing a 10/11; may just take half of your advice and back FR.
I've just backed Finians Rainbow to place at evens.
Don't think he'll win, so don't want to throw that part of the each way bet away but unless Somersby runs or Wishful Thinking improves a stone I think the first three places are sorted.
Don't think he'll win, so don't want to throw that part of the each way bet away but unless Somersby runs or Wishful Thinking improves a stone I think the first three places are sorted.
i'd just like to say i enjoy reading your work EC, and I hope that one d1ckhead slagging you off doesn't stop you posting these
Thanks Tucho. Everyone's allowed there own opinion, besides if people didn't have wrong ones I wouldn't make money in this game 
yes totally agree EC
keep it coming, some original thought much appreciated whether it works out or not - getting the brain thinking about things from different angles can often lead to valuable insights
it is a shame that we can't edit threads and delete unwelcome and offensive posts on this shocking forum
keep it coming, some original thought much appreciated whether it works out or not - getting the brain thinking about things from different angles can often lead to valuable insights
it is a shame that we can't edit threads and delete unwelcome and offensive posts on this shocking forum
Best of luck EC
Personally I think Finian was second best in an average Arkle
Zebbo looks like age is catching up with him and the rest look well held on all known form
Sizing is out of the absolute top drawer and looks as good as ever despite his slightly advancing years. IMO he's the best since Moscow Flyer and that includes Azerty and Well Chief
And I think I love him
Personally I think Finian was second best in an average Arkle
Zebbo looks like age is catching up with him and the rest look well held on all known form
Sizing is out of the absolute top drawer and looks as good as ever despite his slightly advancing years. IMO he's the best since Moscow Flyer and that includes Azerty and Well Chief
And I think I love him
EC extremely impressive analysis & I tip my hat. Very hard to choose between these, when I boil it down & I can't decide, I have a 'rule of thumb' which often stands me in good stead. It's simply win to run ratio. It's clearly Finian's Rainbow here. I'm already on at 6's anyhow but your analysis proves it's perhaps 'good value'? SE may well & probably will win but at evens there's no value for me. GL all
Excellent analysis EC. Agree 100% with the above, very well written and reasoned too, be nice to see more of that on here.
Great post EC. I've heard it trotted put repeatedly in the last few months that Big Zeb is regressing. This all seems to be due to one poor run in heavy ground. Although RPR's would infer that this seasons form is not as good as last years, his three previous runs included beating Sizing Europe once and Noble Prince twice (once giving him five pounds). This seems pretty good form to me and although Sizing Europe is the most likely winner (especially at Cheltenham) he's evens and Big Zeb is 5/1. If you have to have a bet in this race then Big Zeb has got to be better value than Sizing Europe.
...same here EC...very interesting post. Can't understand that ridiculous retort...ban the jerk. All food for thought. Personaly I agree, and think that they should run Somersby in this as it really does look like a weak year, and he has come so close before.
Very interesting post as usual. Last year I was against Sizing Europe, given that he didn't have a great preparation, was messed about over different trips etc, and i just felt he wouldn't win as a result. He proved me wrong and came home at a very nice price.
This year, everything's gone reasonably well, Tingle Creek, thumping Big Zeb LTO.
Yet to be convinced Finians Rainbow is going to be strong in the finish, and Sizing seems to com alive when he gets to Cheltenham. He's my most likely winner, thought the price may not be value now.
This year, everything's gone reasonably well, Tingle Creek, thumping Big Zeb LTO.
Yet to be convinced Finians Rainbow is going to be strong in the finish, and Sizing seems to com alive when he gets to Cheltenham. He's my most likely winner, thought the price may not be value now.
To be honest, I'm only a new member to the Sizing Europe fan club.
I tipped him up in the Arkle months and months before the race at about 25/1 but never actually backed that up with any cash (no fault of his but I probably held that against him after). I was always convinced Captain Cee Bee would win that Arkle after he was cruising all over Sizing in their prep run - but the rest is history.
Like JOCI has said above I was against him for the same reasons last year; having one of the worst preps for the Festival. I've always been a huge Master Minded fan and could never find myself deserting him, even if he did cost me a few quid on more than one occasion.
I wasn't completely with him at the start of this year, again because of De Bromhead's desire to run him over 3m. However, since he has now dropped backed to 2m he does look a cut above and can't see him getting beat.
I think nearly everyone on here is of the same opinion. Sizing is easily the most likely winner but not too many would want to go steaming in at evens / odds on. Big Zeb needs to prove that he bounce back after his last run and Finians needs to prove he csn last out the full 2 miles.
Hopefully Wishful Thinking will take them along at a good pace, and all of the top 3 will get their good ground so there shouldn't be any excuses.
Great Post EC. With regards to Sizing and Finians putting up pretty similar RPR's in their Arkles, I would say that Sizing's Arkle was a much stronger race though. Somersby has since won a G1, Mad Max won at Aintree, Osana was a G2 winning hurdler and Riverside Theatre has won a G1 chase. These are much stronger than the likes of Captain Chris, Medermit, Ghizao and Realt Dubh imo.
I tipped him up in the Arkle months and months before the race at about 25/1 but never actually backed that up with any cash (no fault of his but I probably held that against him after). I was always convinced Captain Cee Bee would win that Arkle after he was cruising all over Sizing in their prep run - but the rest is history.
Like JOCI has said above I was against him for the same reasons last year; having one of the worst preps for the Festival. I've always been a huge Master Minded fan and could never find myself deserting him, even if he did cost me a few quid on more than one occasion.
I wasn't completely with him at the start of this year, again because of De Bromhead's desire to run him over 3m. However, since he has now dropped backed to 2m he does look a cut above and can't see him getting beat.
I think nearly everyone on here is of the same opinion. Sizing is easily the most likely winner but not too many would want to go steaming in at evens / odds on. Big Zeb needs to prove that he bounce back after his last run and Finians needs to prove he csn last out the full 2 miles.
Hopefully Wishful Thinking will take them along at a good pace, and all of the top 3 will get their good ground so there shouldn't be any excuses.
Great Post EC. With regards to Sizing and Finians putting up pretty similar RPR's in their Arkles, I would say that Sizing's Arkle was a much stronger race though. Somersby has since won a G1, Mad Max won at Aintree, Osana was a G2 winning hurdler and Riverside Theatre has won a G1 chase. These are much stronger than the likes of Captain Chris, Medermit, Ghizao and Realt Dubh imo.
As others have said, great post OP. I've been thinking of a small lay of Sizing, as good as the horse is (and he is fantastic) the intensity of his programme coupled with his age has really put me off - a few mates have been going down the Sprinter/Sizing double route, and I can't help but think that they're the two weakest odds on shouts of the festival.
As for who can win, I think that Somersby ran his race in the VC. Wishful Thinking is one I'm really interested in for a place, he certianly has the raw ability for me, though it's hope more than expectation that he'll start fulfilling his promise now.
As for who can win, I think that Somersby ran his race in the VC. Wishful Thinking is one I'm really interested in for a place, he certianly has the raw ability for me, though it's hope more than expectation that he'll start fulfilling his promise now.
Well Chief, I think it's unfair to judge Finians Rainbow's Arkle against Sizing Europe's at this stage. For instance Somersby has only won his Grade 1 in recent months.
Captain Chris has had an unlucky season imo. He unseated when looking like the winner in the Haldon Gold Cup. Then in the King George he was running a cracker before blowing up. A line can be drawn through his last run. Finians Rainbow has ran as well as Somersby did in the same period between Arkle and Champion Chase last year. Medermit won the Haldon and ran a cracker behind Quantitativeeasing at Cheltenham. Realt Dubh has yet to run this season and could still be a serious horse. The very fact that they are willing to run him in the Queen Mother first time out tells you how highly he's regarded.
My point is that we've had a year extra to judge the form of Sizing Europe's Arkle, which before Somersby won a Grade 1, I wouldn't say looked very strong.
Captain Chris has had an unlucky season imo. He unseated when looking like the winner in the Haldon Gold Cup. Then in the King George he was running a cracker before blowing up. A line can be drawn through his last run. Finians Rainbow has ran as well as Somersby did in the same period between Arkle and Champion Chase last year. Medermit won the Haldon and ran a cracker behind Quantitativeeasing at Cheltenham. Realt Dubh has yet to run this season and could still be a serious horse. The very fact that they are willing to run him in the Queen Mother first time out tells you how highly he's regarded.
My point is that we've had a year extra to judge the form of Sizing Europe's Arkle, which before Somersby won a Grade 1, I wouldn't say looked very strong.
I accept that point Slabster, was going to say it in my post.
But at the same point as now, in the year after Sizing's Arkle, Riverside Theatre had won a G1 open company chase and been 2nd in a King George, Somersby ran Master Minded to a short head and Mad Max won the G2 novice chase at Aintree.
I think they were a much stronger bunch of hurdlers in Sizing's Arkle; such as Sizing, Captain Cee Bee (Supreme winner), Osana (placed in a Champion Hurdle), Somersby (placed in a Supreme).
I accept Captain Chris won at Punchestown and Medermit's run this year, but it's more a gut feeling that Sizing Europe's Arkle was stronger and will produce more long term better chasers.
I think last year's Arkle was poor to be honest, but can still see Finians being placed in the QMCC
But at the same point as now, in the year after Sizing's Arkle, Riverside Theatre had won a G1 open company chase and been 2nd in a King George, Somersby ran Master Minded to a short head and Mad Max won the G2 novice chase at Aintree.
I think they were a much stronger bunch of hurdlers in Sizing's Arkle; such as Sizing, Captain Cee Bee (Supreme winner), Osana (placed in a Champion Hurdle), Somersby (placed in a Supreme).
I accept Captain Chris won at Punchestown and Medermit's run this year, but it's more a gut feeling that Sizing Europe's Arkle was stronger and will produce more long term better chasers.
I think last year's Arkle was poor to be honest, but can still see Finians being placed in the QMCC
Thank you for all the feedback.
Have also managed to get some feedback on twitter from some very knowledgable people in the industry. Richard Hoiles and Simon Rowlands (head of research and product development at timeform).
Both raised the point that ratings horse achieve don't tend to have a normal distributon. Simon commented that they had a skewed distribution. He also took the time to email me with a more detailed response.
Below is the response I got from him if people are interested in the topic(I hope he doesn't mind me posting it on here!)
First off, I hope you did not mind me disagreeing with one of the premises of your piece. I did think it was very refreshing to see an intelligent and alternative approach to form analysis: well done. Much of what else is out there is tired and unimaginative.
Hopefully the attached will give a picture of ratings distributions. Whereas "master" (i.e. the one rating used as definitive) ratings do distribute close to normally over a horse population (though there are issues with opportunity presented by the race programme and a tendency to a long tail at high values), the array of "performance" ratings of a horse do not.
My example uses a smallish sample, simply as I had to extract them manually, but still illustrates the point: the graph is heavily skewed towards a horse "running to form". When you think about it, a horse's maximum performance rating has to exist at least once for each horse, and therefore the frequency with which it appears must be at least 1/N where N is the number of runs being considered.
In addition, we are not observing a natural phenomenon but one which is greatly prone to human intervention, notably in terms of a trainer/jockey trying to ensure a horse runs well (well, we hope so anyway!). A horse is not raced at random, on a random day, under random conditions, and without being trained to peak for racecourse performance. The distribution should skew towards running well.
I mentioned the possibility of conducting a Monte Carlo simulation with arrays of ratings. In simple terms, this might be something like:
Sizing Europe performance ratings: 172/172/160/146/164/172/157
Finian's Rainbow performance ratings: 166/153/159/155/138/142/142
If every performance rating was chosen at random countless times, and the higher/highest rating "won" the race (a MC-sim), you would get Sizing Europe "winning" ((3*100)+(1*86)+(1*86)+(1*72)+(1*42))/7 = 84% of the time and Finian's Rainbow winning 16% of the time.
However, you need to do this for every possibility in a race, which may involve many more than two runners and arrays covering more than seven performances. In addition, this works better with exposed horses with established form - such as handicappers - than horses that were and may still be progressing, like this pair.
Nonetheless, it is possible to write this all into a spreadsheet. I know for a fact that many professional punters who employ mathematical modelling use a degree of MC-sim in their conversion of ratings into probabilities (for both win and place).
Have also managed to get some feedback on twitter from some very knowledgable people in the industry. Richard Hoiles and Simon Rowlands (head of research and product development at timeform).
Both raised the point that ratings horse achieve don't tend to have a normal distributon. Simon commented that they had a skewed distribution. He also took the time to email me with a more detailed response.
Below is the response I got from him if people are interested in the topic(I hope he doesn't mind me posting it on here!)
First off, I hope you did not mind me disagreeing with one of the premises of your piece. I did think it was very refreshing to see an intelligent and alternative approach to form analysis: well done. Much of what else is out there is tired and unimaginative.
Hopefully the attached will give a picture of ratings distributions. Whereas "master" (i.e. the one rating used as definitive) ratings do distribute close to normally over a horse population (though there are issues with opportunity presented by the race programme and a tendency to a long tail at high values), the array of "performance" ratings of a horse do not.
My example uses a smallish sample, simply as I had to extract them manually, but still illustrates the point: the graph is heavily skewed towards a horse "running to form". When you think about it, a horse's maximum performance rating has to exist at least once for each horse, and therefore the frequency with which it appears must be at least 1/N where N is the number of runs being considered.
In addition, we are not observing a natural phenomenon but one which is greatly prone to human intervention, notably in terms of a trainer/jockey trying to ensure a horse runs well (well, we hope so anyway!). A horse is not raced at random, on a random day, under random conditions, and without being trained to peak for racecourse performance. The distribution should skew towards running well.
I mentioned the possibility of conducting a Monte Carlo simulation with arrays of ratings. In simple terms, this might be something like:
Sizing Europe performance ratings: 172/172/160/146/164/172/157
Finian's Rainbow performance ratings: 166/153/159/155/138/142/142
If every performance rating was chosen at random countless times, and the higher/highest rating "won" the race (a MC-sim), you would get Sizing Europe "winning" ((3*100)+(1*86)+(1*86)+(1*72)+(1*42))/7 = 84% of the time and Finian's Rainbow winning 16% of the time.
However, you need to do this for every possibility in a race, which may involve many more than two runners and arrays covering more than seven performances. In addition, this works better with exposed horses with established form - such as handicappers - than horses that were and may still be progressing, like this pair.
Nonetheless, it is possible to write this all into a spreadsheet. I know for a fact that many professional punters who employ mathematical modelling use a degree of MC-sim in their conversion of ratings into probabilities (for both win and place).
Is it true that unsuccessful Arkle runners dont win the Champion Chase. There is logic to it anyway. It is natural and right that when there is a hot-pot in a race that one should look for the value. I believe Big Zeb offers better value than Finians Rainbow but I dont believe he will beat beat SE either but I would have him any day ahead of FR. Both SE and BZ have done it all before.
Nobody want to use RT to **** SEs Arkle? He was in the race I believe. Somersby ran a cracker in th Supreme the year before as well. I just don't think he ttained as much as others.
I really wanna find something against SE in this but there looks to be nothing doing. I think it may be a no bet race or maybe just a place bet on Big Zeb.
I really wanna find something against SE in this but there looks to be nothing doing. I think it may be a no bet race or maybe just a place bet on Big Zeb.
theory goes to the test today extreme, personally haven't commented as didn't agree with it all and i see other decent judges on here did to a degree...all racing opinion i suppose...so will keep a lid on it as like i say didn't agree with it...
de bromhead has never made mistakes before and hope the waffle that i have been through doesn't bare out..
de bromhead has never made mistakes before and hope the waffle that i have been through doesn't bare out..
good write up extreme and agree with a lot of your thinking have been on finians since his 2nd to somesby and think he has a fair bit of improvement in him . also on kauto stone at 20s ant post to a lesser extent as he was going just as well as sizing in the tingle creek untill a mistake 2 or 3 out and with a clear round of jumping and a course that may suit he could make the frame although i dont expect him to win .good luck !
Great write up a pleasure to read. I am with Sizing already but may have a little interest e/w on Finians at 11/2 a free bet if ever there was one IMO. Good luck with your staking plan.
sizing hit 1.2 in the run? and ran to form which i thought was the point of the thread that he had run his races earlier in the season?
suppose,was refering to the fact that many believed that there was no way FR could match the figure that SE ran to
was a funny race though with WT failing with a circuit to go and leaving SE in front miles too soon - if he had given a lead to 3 out it woulda been different
doubt SE ran anywhere near peak form
doubt SE ran anywhere near peak form
a fact not mentioned ,but worth noting ,SE was ythe highest rated hurdler who went chasing for quite a few years ,if memory serves me.so this may have lead to higher ratings
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