Pipe want Great Endeavour in Handicap - Owner wants him in Ryanair

Not seen it mate,but makes sense to me.
Hes a handicapper,but these owners often think they know better than their trainers they pay to do a job.

He would have to be one of the highest rated horses ever to win the Byrne plate, 22 of the last 24 winners have been under 141(according to the atr site)

He's off 157 now

Lot of question marks in the race, id agree with the owners, hes very likely got his conditions in a open race

Id also question that DP thinks he;s better off in the handicap

Between a rock and a hard place??

Had heard it last Sat I think and posted up about it, but can't remember where I saw it. Defo said "if it was up to me I'd run him in the Plate."

Probably he's got one that he wants to keep GE in for the weights

surely not!!

defo defo defo 10000000% certain to run in the Ryanair,all the talk about the handicap started the begining of last week when martin pipe stuck his fat nose in again,but the owner is standing firm and said its not an option

Not good enough to win a G1 and too high in the weights for a handicap.

Joins the club which includes horses like Poquelin, Wishful Thinking, Time for Rupert, Diamond Harry and probably a million others!!!

. DP- Great Endeavor got to improve. Best fresh in cracking form drier the form the better but has 10 lbs to find. Would go h'cap if up to him but owner wants to run in Ryanair.

CV,thats from the Ryanair pricewise thread,looks like a quote from a Chelt preview event mate.

Well i think he;s got a shot on his best form, and that is here, at this place over this distance and on good ground

Conditions may not suit RL, Albertas is a guess, Riverside may not produce his running here, Noble doesnt win that often and through QE hes not far off Medermit, that is forgetting his 3rd run in a short while

Big player here imo

well think he has a chance in an open ryanair...

I have him to find 5-6lbs myself but each to there own...think he will run a big race myself has done in the previous 2 festivals...

i just like the animal myself and is a decent course horse...good chance in the ryanair imo

myself

Why would you want to hump 157 in a handicap chase here??

Apart from the cross country(Garde off 150), i cant find anything over 147 winning one at the festival this century

Rubi Light out to fourth fav behind Somersby.

Decent sized drift today

GE will give backers a good run for their money but can see him running into a couple too good.

Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari Kingitis.

This is his 1st shot at the big time, its not as if hes done it several times and failed

FFS Wellchief, SSSSSSHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

He should have his ground,but to beat the proven Grade 1 performers he simply has too much improvement to make imo.
Somersby,AR,RT,RL,NP and Medermit all are ahead of him,he aint gonna beat all that lot,well not in my view anyway.

If Medermit finishes ahead of Great endeavour in the ryan air chase I'll buy all members of this forum a pint of guiness.

cheers Eb

Great endeavous is a very underrated horse.

He won the paddy power with ease and the only thing that stopped him winning the hennessy was the fact he didnt stay. He was the best horse in that race.

He's fresh and raring to go at a course he loves.

How he's 10/1 when the likes of Medermit are shorter is staggering to me!

look at the formbook

Hes what he is imo,he will like the probable ground and runs well at the course,but hes not a grade 1 horse and has to improve a fair bit.possible he could improve enough,but too many ahead of him for me to play at his odds.

Just wanted to join the thread as there is a possibility of a free pint of Guiness!

There is NO possibility roo!

think the bars shut roo,still waiting for mine

Good old Pipey always putting the punter in the picture.  Having said all that I like the way the family have upset the rulling class applecart.  Normal working class people made good.
The toffs can't take it.  They put their owners first and I have some respect for that.  As enthusiasts we have to respect it. 

I loved that early pace led first style in the eighties and ninties.  Took the toff trainers by storm.

budd would love you to explain why you think the others are so well clear...

you have to look at the opposition imo...

medermit has to prove he can back up his prep run, never has done before

rubi light a better horse on soft going

noble prince form isn't worth the paper is written on

albertas run has legitmate form claims but is returning from injury

somersby is an ascot horse who will spit the dummy out when push comes to shove

poquelin has to prove he can still do it although is respected at the price

kalahari king i'll crack the jokes

forpady a nice horse 3 years ago but has no ability left

at least great endeavour beat a top class handicapper 7 lengths who franked the form...and was over the top when making a bad mistake last time...he'll be different gravy off the lay off and at least you can say he is progressive unlike most of the field.

agreed he has something to find but at least we know he goes well fresh, loves the track, ground, trip and looks like he can progress further...

we will see budd but personally think people are underestimating the horse although it is an ultra competitive race with decent but no more than that, horses in it.

well chief if those are the horses you fancy i wouldn't be forcing an opinion on anyone...joke stuff

This horse has a massive chance in the Ryanair.

Course,distance and ground perfect and at his best fresh.Nearly everything else has question marks against them.
Sure there are a few horses rated higher than him but I stopped letting ratings influence my thinking about 30 years ago.


GET ON.

They are all proven performers at the level,GE is not.I dont think he will be good enough to beat all of them.
Pretty much as simple as that Harry.
If he proves me wrong,so be it,but at the prices theres at least 5 or 6 i would rather back.

harry c - you left out the winner

well thats good budd...but you haven't backed up why

which 6 would you back and why???tell me, would like you to at least back up your 1-12 lay


roobuck riverside is difficult to evaluate for me personally, as feel he is a better horse at kempton and ascot (flatter tracks) think he is the best horse in this but has to prove he won't bounce and i still thought he had a race at ascot...am an avid believer in the bounce factor and track is still an unknown...but respect him very highly and if he can back up his form in a big field which seems likely he will take the beating...a worthy favourite, but a difficult horse for me to get involved in...will back him at half the price in running if i see all is well with him(travelling)...you will know your fate after a mile for me...he will win if able to back up.

Riverside Theatre

harry - good to see we agree on another one for Cheltenham.

I think anyone dismissing this one must be taking a very blinkered, ratings-based approach to the race. As you have said very fairly earlier on this thread, you need to look at the others when assessing his chance.

For me, there are only two others guaranteed to like the conditions (Albertas returns from injury and we have no idea if he is as good as ever now he's in the veteran bracket, and Noble Prince is sure to give his running but has failed to establish himself as a Grade One horse for the past two seasons). Great Endeavour will love everything about the conditions, is progressive, and has never been tried at this level.

Take a look at the Paddy Power roll of honour. Subsequent exploits of almost all the winners suggest future superstars win it more often than any other handicap, and while he would have been wanting to win easily off his weight, I don't think I've ever seen an easier winner. He absolutely bolted up and, as you say, was clearly the best horse in the Hennessy despite a quick turnaround when patently running out of gas close home.

He goes really well fresh and can easily find 6-7lb of improvement. Whether that is enough I'm not sure, but as all the other higher rated horses seem to have issues with conditions (or not be coming into the race with ideal preps) I doubt he'll need to  run to a much higher mark to win. People get hung up on ratings far too easily. It matters not a jot that you are a 168-horse if conditions don't allow you to run to that mark.

That said, I do have one concern that is stopping me backing him big time and that is Riverside Theatre. I think his no-show in the Arkle might be a red herring, as I feel the occasion was beyond him and that he was just not as good a horse then. I have deep respect for him because he jumps economically, travels strongly, quickens and finds for pressure. All those characteristics seem to suggest that he should be effective on any track and if that is the case, he is the one to improve past in my opinion.

Maybe I'll just load up on the Exacta to be safe

I have stated my case several times for both Great Endeavour and Medermit who I have backed at 14s and 16 s for this race but I will have another go. Of course, this could all go wrong but there is a strong case to be made.

1. Great Endeavour produced an outstanding performance in a key trial for the race, the Paddy Power Hcp, over C&D and I rated the bare form at 164 and using my long established criteria for estimating the peak performance potential I confidently predict that Great Endeavour is easily capable of running to 174 under ideal conditions.

2. The Spinal Research race run on Dec 10 2011 is another key trial and it turns out that it is exceptionally strong form indeed. Several horses who were well down the field have since improved their ratings by winning races (Calgary Bay is now officially rated higher than Great Endeavour for example yet was beaten more than 10 lengths in the Spinal race) and Medermit has subsequently run to around 170 in the Ascot race.

3. Quantitativeeasing, who was hammered out of sight by Great Endeavour managed to win the Spinal Research confirming the strength of the Paddy Power form and is now rated 155. Great Endeavour ran in the Spinal Research and jumped for fun until the 10th fence where he made a momentum stopping blunder yet still managed to get back into the race and was still in contention until he was broadsided by stablemate Salut Flo who makes a mistake 3 out I believe and slams into GE knocking him sideways. Great Endeavour was still in front of Medermit (the eventual second) who was being stoked up at that point.

4. Now, and this is all a matter of judgement by me and no one has to agree, based on the Paddy Power form it is my contention that had Great Endeavour not made the bad mistake and got whacked by SF he very well could have produced the peak potential rating I have awarded him of 174 and that would certainly have been enough to win (Medermit carried identical weight, ran 168 and got beat half a length).

Great Endeavour is a Festival winner, a winner of a key trial, loves the track and the trip, has a record of running really well fresh and will get the going he needs to produce his best possible performance. IF I am right about his peak potential and he jumps cleanly (I do note that he has 'blundered' twice this season) then he is going to run a massive race.

No doubt there will be plenty who can find a reason to disagree with everything I have said and that's fair enough. This is just an assessment based on methods that have stood me in very good stead and the money is down so all I can do is wait and see how it turns out. This is one of the most fascinating races of the whole meeting precisely because we have all the stalwarts who have been running in Grade 1 races like Sommersby et al up against those trying to break into the top level and I am itching to see what happens

His form figures at cheltenham are 03162F10 so he has a 50% place record on the track and a 25% win record.  I backed him at the open meeting, on that occasion he jumped and travelled like a stag except that he nearly took one fence with him on the second circuit you could see it sort of knocked the wind out of him yet he still won by 7 lengths. This horse is still on the upgrade from 6 to 7 years old there has been considerable improvement. 

Guys, Guys, Guys we have been through this before Pipes never talk up there horses I taught you would know this by now.  Particularly in championship grade 1 races I remember Well Chief in the arkle a few years ago Martin Pipe said to Tom Taaffe trainer of Kicking King that he taught it would be a presession for kicking king in the arkle he ended up running brilliantly pretty much flawless over the 2 mile trip only for one thing to beat him Well Chief with AP giving it his trademark ride. I think Well Chief won by a length.

The morale of the story is that Pipe may say he wants to run it in a handicap to take pressure and attention off himself when GE runs in the Ryanair. To say he is too good for handicaps but not up to grade 1 standard is inexcusably stupid. Does anyone recall a horse called Our Vic similiar profile except slightly older when he went for the Grade 1 Ryanair won handily ended up beating bloody Kauto Star by a neck at Aintree he bore all the hallmarks of a top class handicapper who was just going to struggle in top class grade 1 races yet Pipe managed to squeeze every bit of talent out of him to win multiple grade 1's.

From my experience so far David Pipe is a better trainer then his father at the festival at least in Martin Pipes latter years of training.  Pipe Snr ran his horses more than frequently throughout the season racking up a lot of winners but by the time the festival came round he was left surveying the damage of running his horses into the ground over the season meaning his Cheltenham winners became few and far between even AP left the stable to try and get better rides at grade 1 level.

On the other hand look a David Pipe his horses are ready to fight for there lives when the festival comes round Faasel, Junior, Grand Crus, Great Endeavour, Leo's Lucky Star, The Package, Notus De La Tour, Buena Vista, Consigliere and Big Eared Fran either winning or being placed in the last 3 years. You can be certain that GE will be primed for the race and I will be surprised if he does'nt or even go on and win it!

His form figures at cheltenham are 03162F10 so he has a 50% place record on the track and a 25% win record.  I backed him at the open meeting, on that occasion he jumped and travelled like a stag except that he nearly took one fence with him on the second circuit you could see it sort of knocked the wind out of him yet he still won by 7 lengths. This horse is still on the upgrade from 6 to 7 years old there has been considerable improvement. 

Guys, Guys, Guys we have been through this before Pipes never talk up there horses I taught you would know this by now.  Particularly in championship grade 1 races I remember Well Chief in the arkle a few years ago Martin Pipe said to Tom Taaffe trainer of Kicking King that he taught it would be a presession for kicking king in the arkle he ended up running brilliantly pretty much flawless over the 2 mile trip only for one thing to beat him Well Chief with AP giving it his trademark ride. I think Well Chief won by a length.

The morale of the story is that Pipe may say he wants to run it in a handicap to take pressure and attention off himself when GE runs in the Ryanair. To say he is too good for handicaps but not up to grade 1 standard is inexcusably stupid. Does anyone recall a horse called Our Vic similiar profile except slightly older when he went for the Grade 1 Ryanair won handily ended up beating bloody Kauto Star by a neck at Aintree he bore all the hallmarks of a top class handicapper who was just going to struggle in top class grade 1 races yet Pipe managed to squeeze every bit of talent out of him to win multiple grade 1's.

From my experience so far David Pipe is a better trainer then his father at the festival at least in Martin Pipes latter years of training.  Pipe Snr ran his horses more than frequently throughout the season racking up a lot of winners but by the time the festival came round he was left surveying the damage of running his horses into the ground over the season meaning his Cheltenham winners became few and far between even AP left the stable to try and get better rides at grade 1 level.

On the other hand look a David Pipe his horses are ready to fight for there lives when the festival comes round Faasel, Junior, Grand Crus, Great Endeavour, Leo's Lucky Star, The Package, Notus De La Tour, Buena Vista, Consigliere and Big Eared Fran either winning or being placed in the last 3 years. You can be certain that GE will be primed for the race and I will be surprised if he does'nt or even go on and win it!

tom and judo hit the nail on the head here....

good write ups by both...

the thing i think that is annoying people and annoying me to an extent is the fact he won the paddy power off of 147...this for some is way below top class form but for me he showed contempt for his rivals and has to be assessed on how easily he won...not coming off the bridle and winning easy was a good performance and is very easy to condemn with proven opposition in opposition in the ryanair...

how do we access him well for me he has to rated in the mid 160's and with a plus...

he then ran a sterling race in the hennessy before stamina gave way in the final quarter....he was over the top in the spinal race and only ran because johnson wanted to run for his pal stewart and support the race...the horse ran well but never travelled early and the mistake was an accident waiting to happen in my opinion...he didn't deserve it but still came back for more before giving way round the home turn..an admirable effort...

some may argue he didn't go on? but the hennessy effort was huge and he was hurting and showed the affects of it in the spinal...if he had won the hennessy he would of gone up another 7lbs imo but he didn't and returned a mediocre rating that shouldn't discourage...

I have to say I am pocket talking a little but had my biggest bet last year in the william hill and the horse ran a huge race off of 148????but lost 5 lengths at the start before circling the field and leading and putting the pace to the race...he was done 2 out although still holding every chance before his exertions gave way and fell(murphys worse ride of his career imo)...

he is difficult to put a true figure on but i have him down at mid 60's plus and if getting a nice run of the race as all need i think he can run to at least late 60's but whether he can break 170 is up to him to prove because he will need to produce a career high to win...but think he can do it if on song and has a decent attitude...

he will need luck and a well judged ride in an ultra competitive race to compete but feel he isn't out of place and can serve it up...whether he is good enough to beat an on song riverside theatre i don't know? and have reservations...but that horse also needs to prove he can do it at the track...

a great race awaits and can't wait to see which horse can produce what it takes on the day...

Harry,you just listed those i think are better horses than GE,and questioned them with doubts.
Thers also doubts about GE main one being whether he can improve enough to beat all those horses.And theres no doubt he has to do that to figure here.Maybe you think the price allows that - fair enough.

Im not a ratings man,although in this case they do back me up,never have been,but i do look at the formbook,and rather than write a big piece on why i dont think GE will win the Ryanair, apart from what ive said so far,that hes behind 5 0r 6 others and is not a proven Grade 1 performer being a handicapper,i just say my reasons are in the form of all the leading candidates.

Look mate,he could improve for the ground and being fresh etc,probably will,but imo i really dont think he can do that enough to beat all those i mentioned earlier on this thread.
Good luck though,he does add interest to the race for sure,and yes hes a contender.Likes the likely ground,course and the distance.

As for the winner,thats tough,but if AR lines up i think hes the most likely winner,and Somersby and NP next best.
AR is perfect for this race as hes proved,had 1 run this season,a good one as well,and will be nice and fresh,if he lines up means hes over his problems.
Somersby has run well here before,is in good Grade 1 winning form,and is ultra consistent,dont win often but always runs his race,just dont need to clout one near the finish!!
NP has winning form here and ran well behind BZ at a distance too short for him.

He's still 12s at Billies thats big I would think 9s or 8s represent his chances. Paddy Power Gold Cup winners in the past have really good records going on to the Festival. Imperial Commander won the race off 10-7 and went on to win the Gold Cup. Our Vic won it and went on to win the Ryanair. His run in the Hennessey was excellent considering the trip was far to long for him.

If you look at the conditions of the race it might not really suit Riverside Theatre. Ground good to firm as it stands optimum for him would be good to soft, really fast pace with AR and GE, and the undulating track. I think he might get caught out maybe hit one hard. He will be struggling from there.

We know from the paddy power everything will be in GE favour. A good few horses were being ridden along on the first circuit by the pace set by GE. He can deal with the hustle and bustle. But most importantly jumps well under pressure this is were RT might wilt a bit.

IC won the Ryanair same season he won the PP STS, then the CGC the year after.  He was just out of novice stage though so was more progressive than GE.  Don't really see how GE can beat all of these to be honest, though their is likely to be a much faster pace in th race this year than for the last couple and that will help him as he has always run well in fast run big field handicaps.  Problem that leaves me with is that so has Poquelin and he is clearly the better horse of the 2 in a fast run race yet is a bigger price.  So it has to be Poquelin for me.

Harry, in what way am I trying to force my opinion on anyone?  I wrote one line where I said he'll probably run into one too good.  You're the one writing big essays so I'd say you're the one forcing your opinion on me.

I'm of the same view as Budd.  I think he'll run a good race but this looks like the strongest Ryanair there has been and he might struggle.

Yes, he won well of 147 but how would Riverside Theatre or Albertas Run performed off a mark that low?  I think they would have demolished the opposition.

I think its really good that both harry and judo have such a strong feeling about the horse, can put in writing their rationale and at 14s do have a decent bet in an open race. All of the apparent grade 1 horse do have questions to answer so if he does win it wouldn't be the greatest shock.

For me I have backed RT as I think he is the best horse in the race and the 7s I got was big enough to counter the course and to a lesser extent 'bounce' concerns. I have also done AR e/w as he has the proven festival form in this grade, will love the ground and the price counters the injury concern.

I think this race is extremely open and without any firm opinions not one I am going to play too heavily in

people have aid repeatedly that Great Endeavour was over the top in the Spinal Research but I don't buy that at all. He just took off too soon and breasted a fence and then later got slammed in the ribs. No one can say what would have happened if neither event had occurred during the race but you can 100% sure he would have been somewhere near Quantitativeeasing who won the race. As I said, I am convinced he would have won but that is open to personal opinion.