Cheltenham Festival
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How many will be left after the last confirmation stage..?
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I cant help you,sorry.There does not seem to be as much debate about the Champ Hurdle this year.Most think that he just has to turn up to win.
A tenth of the volume of the market for Binocular.They just dont believe he can beat him.I think they are wrong.Binocular has shown improved form this year compared to last and just looks the part to me. This may change if JP gets involved on the day. We still have to find out how good the Nicholls pair are. My mate is trying to get me to back the Fly out of the bunce pot.It looks like we wont have a bet in the race. |
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yeah binocular is obviously a superstar,should win by 45 lengths
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No not 45 lengths.When was the last time the CH had two horses rated in 170s running?
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There doesnt appear to be much debate? Are you kidding me?
There have been at least two threads since Bino won last time dedicated to 'can he do it'? Granted, majority sided with HF but many those who are on the Fly, such as I, agreed that Bino looked good last time out and he is the only one who keeps me up at night. The question when backinh Bino is: Which Bino am I backing? |
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I spent a day on the CH this week and my conclusion was that there is a very high percentage chance that the winner is one of Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar (using the Paul Jones trends book plus ratings etc)
and given the terrible records of both 5 year olds and Triumph winners I can't back Zarkandar so at the prices the bet has to be Binocular for me surprised myself even |
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I'd love to see Bino do it judo. A horse unlucky to be active in an era of superstars. Would have a far higher profile if not.
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I did say as much.Zohan would not have waited 12hrs for a reply last year.Good luck.
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well to all those who are backing bino,
when he finishes unplaced,please dont show up and and simply say,as an excuse 'that was not the real bino' cause that will just make look stupid |
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do stfu will ya?
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that did not apply to you jud,as you already make yourself look stupid with every post you write
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Couldn't agree more TFM, each and every post has an air of childish buffoonery.
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TheFormMan.I will admit it is hard to keep the faith sometimes.Until i read the form again.
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I just cant have him on any of his form,4th or 5th for me
1st Hurricane Fly 2nd Oscars Well 3rd Rock on Ruby/Thousand Stars ruby walsh is with you tho,says that bino will finish 2nd to him,i wish you luck with it coupers |
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If its Oscars Well that is your danger then you are entitled to be confident.The fly already beat two from that sire last year.They just dont get it done at the end of the race at the festival over over the short distances.You can exclude Big Zeb.
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Nothing in this race is even remotely a danger to the fly,he is well clear of the field.
I just meant that Oscars/Rock on are big dangers to the rest of the field |
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impossible to back against the fly imo. a ten time grade 1 winner,completing the cheltenham/punchestown double last season (destroying binocular in the process)& coming back from a long lay off to obliterate the field in the irish champion hurdle, on all known form there simply isn't one single reason to oppose this horse,either back it or stay well clear.....good luck
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judorick
09 Mar 12 23:57 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 3,331 | Blogger: judorick's blog I spent a day on the CH this week and my conclusion was that there is a very high percentage chance that the winner is one of Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar (using the Paul Jones trends book plus ratings etc) and given the terrible records of both 5 year olds and Triumph winners I can't back Zarkandar so at the prices the bet has to be Binocular for me surprised myself even Did the same a couple of weeks back judo with a similar result. 15 run/ 6 win threshold kicks out Zarkandar, ROR, OW, Zaidpour, Brampour, Olofi, Kalann. Thousand Stars and Celestial Halo's hurdle strike rates are too low. Just leaves HF, Bino and Overturn. With Bino's CH being rated higher than HF's CH by RPR, topspeed and raceform speed ratings, there is enough there for a bet. Cover stakes in the w/out HF market and a bit ew on Overturn as he meets all the stats and is over the threshold to be competitive in CHs with a 164+ RPR in last 2 runs. |
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By: This user is online. thieveslikeus
Date Joined: 11 Jan 12 Add contact | Send message When: 10 Mar 12 11:57 Joined: Date Joined: 11 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 680 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog With Bino's CH being rated higher than HF's CH by RPR, topspeed and raceform speed ratings, there is enough there for a bet. Cover stakes in the w/out HF market and a bit ew on Overturn as he meets all the stats and is over the threshold to be competitive in CHs with a 164+ RPR in last 2 runs. following blindly,the opinion of what a select few people at RPR AND RACEFORM think is not the way forward,you have your own mind,use it and dont just copy what others say when placing your bets |
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I was using as supporting evidence, form man, not following blindly! Three DIFFERENT sets of ratings all saying the same thing and CONFIRMING my opinion that there is a decent chance Bino is the better horse over this c and d.
You seem to be the one that is blind as you obviously cannot imagine favourites getting beaten. Either you are new at this game or have your brain reset each year. This is Cheltenham, every race is competitive and there is built in value in the 3/1 to 10/1 price range in the Grade 1 races so that is where I will be seeking my winners and looking for evidence of horses having a genuine chance where there is a short priced fav to be beaten. |
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I have backed H Fly quite heavily at 2-1 7/4 - my only worry is bino
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By: This user is online. thieveslikeus
Date Joined: 11 Jan 12 Add contact | Send message When: 10 Mar 12 14:08 Joined: Date Joined: 11 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 681 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog I was using as supporting evidence, form man, not following blindly! Three DIFFERENT sets of ratings all saying the same thing and CONFIRMING my opinion that there is a decent chance Bino is the better horse over this c and d. You seem to be the one that is blind as you obviously cannot imagine favourites getting beaten. Either you are new at this game or have your brain reset each year. This is Cheltenham, every race is competitive and there is built in value in the 3/1 to 10/1 price range in the Grade 1 races so that is where I will be seeking my winners and looking for evidence of horses having a genuine chance where there is a short priced fav to be beaten. and i will be happy knowing that i have backed a select few of these favorites a good few months ago in the price range that you state above |
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Doesn't mean they can't get beat though fella. Cheltenmas is always the time of year for surprise packages
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of course not,nothing is set in stone,but i'm happy with my position and have to remain confident,all be it somewhat nervous
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Aah, 'tis the nerves talking methinks. Hope enough of them come in for you to be smiling at the end
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tis always the nervs,still no excuse but.
ta very much,heres hoping |
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I wasn't so much interested in who people thought would win, but more will there be 8 horses going to post; making it a good eachway race....
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hf to win by at least 4 lenghts no worries
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Thousand Stars and Olofi the 2 withdrawls
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Is this a definate? So thousand goes for the World Hurdle
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Defo nt in Champion anyway
Binocular, Brampour,Celestial Halo,Hurricane Fly,Kalann,Oscars Well, Overturn, Rock On Ruby, Zarkandar and Zaidpour |
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Where did you get this list from BLG?
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Decs for CH at 10 this am - 48 hr decs
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To Fallen Angel - I read elsewhere that 1000 Stars might not come to Cheltenham at all so as always buyer beware if not nrnb.
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Thousand Stars and Olofi taken out
Final field of 10 |
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have backed TS for the WH but vibes say he will more likely miss the festival all together now,hope not,but looks that way
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