Cheltenham Festival
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07 Mar 12
21:08
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24 Mar 08
I fancy this one to run well and could surprise the principles.....notice it is drifting. Is this another horse that is going to switch race??
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Replies: 18
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Apparently Ruby pushing for him to run in Ryanair but trainer wants to go Gold cup. I think it would have a fair chance in ryan air but wouldnt get home in a horsebox if it goes for gold
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thats what they said about Kauto, 2 gold cups, they said it about war of attrition, they said it about kicking king.....but hey we all have our opinions
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Well he didnt get up the hill when he ran in the AB, it was too early to tell in the RSA how he would have come up the hill and last time out at Leop he looked to be visibly tiring in the last furlong and veteran hcapper Treacle made up a lot of ground on him overthe last quarter mile. The balance of evidence would point to him travelling well to a point and then dropping out but as you say its all about opinions. I actually think China Rock has a similar chance to Quel esprit. He travelled very well last year until losing his action and looks to have been aimed for this race again
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back to lay then!
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Problem is I wouldnt trust Quel Esprit's jumping to hold up and would be more sure of China Rocks jumping. So i'd probably back to lay him at 8 times the price
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It's his level of form that is questionable. His jumping has been fine, 2 falls as a novice wouldn't worry me now after seeing him at Leopardstown and judging his stamina on the Albert Bartlett when he had fallen in the Neptune just 2 days early is plain weird. He has to step up well over a stone to be competitive though and would be unusual.
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I agree that he has to improve, but he has been doing that with every run. When he was a novice he was travelling best in all those races he fell or got brought down so proves to me he has the engine....whether it is gold cup standard will be answered a week friday. But his jumping has improved this year and he is physically stronger. I have him on here at 80s so will be looking to trade it soon.......simples!!
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Ruby wants him in the Ryanair so he has something to ride
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I'd be amazed if Mullins was swayed to switch having listened to him after Quel Esprit's last win as the horse seems better this year and would have a chance the way it travels,it was unlucky with a couple of the falls last year and doesn't appear to be taking the chances it did last season,Paul Townend would be a perferct substitute for Ruby in the big one and I could see it putting it up to them.
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I have a few quid on at decent prices, but will be looking to lay him in running. His jumping doesnt worry me in the slightest, but just dont see him quite getting home.
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CCM....I hold the same opinion as you...I think he will travel well to a point and a good lay in running. He may do even better and stay on well but I have my doubts.
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Regardless of the fact Ruby is probably saying it to suit his own book of rides, I think he's right SS. Would have a much better chnace in the Ryanair for me.
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They said Best Mate wouldn't stay and he won 3.
I am on Quel ew at 25s but in my heart of hearts after watching the Hennessey I think he will fade away to be 7th or 8th |
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This horse will take up the running,front runners do well in the gold cup.
Probably not good enough,but he does have potential at the very least |
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Midnight Chase will lead surely?
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Midnight Chase led last year but was swept away with a circuit to go. I can see Quel Esprit and Kauto tracking him for a circuit before one tries to move forward.
This horse matches quite a lot of trends and I'm convinced he'll run big next week, although I'm worried by a lack of confidence on here. On at average odds of 75 for a bundle so here's hoping anyway.. |
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A few of the trends Quel Esprit matches;
Just 1 of the last 18 winners was aged 10+ The last 12 winners had previously won a Grade 1 race 12 of the last 13 winners had won earlier in the season 10 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers 9 of the last 11 winners had won or finished 2nd at the festival before (doesn't match that one, but would have gone mighty close to eligibility if not tumbling in the RSA last year) Of course, he might not find the required improvement but plenty of positives to be gleaned pre-race |
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 Was there for the taking today and I think he'd have won with a bit to spare. Won't ever have such a chance again |