Al Ferof ?

It looks the only feasible alternative to the favourite. Cue card carries the 5lb penalty - aka Joe Tizzard - and Menorah doesn't jump.

It's Buddelia and CCM. Taken out a loan with Ocean Finance and gradually dripping it all on.

afters Teets. You tipped anything yet

sly bet paying 5 places fyi.

Sint 

Loans r us actually!!

sorry? I don't get that Glossy - clarify?

Stakey

find out in a week Glossy one way or the other

good luck Glossy

festivalfanatic






07 Mar 12 15:08
Joined:


20 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 429 | Blogger: festivalfanatic's blog



It looks the only feasible alternative to the favourite. Cue card carries the 5lb penalty - aka Joe Tizzard

Ok fair enough - got the rating wrong. Still, it's someone's opinion. The horses that AF and SS have beaten respectively and their Cheltenham form is there for all to see.

I'm not saying that SS won't win, but there is absolutely no way that he's a sub-evens shot.

Well we'll see about the ratings. Hendo thinks SS is much better than FR and he is 164. If that is wrong, then AF is overrated at 160. You can't have it both ways!

It is all there to see but...

the skill is in determining which of all the pieces of information are the significant ones that will determine the result

Thieves says the Newbury win was slow for SS. I say it was blisteringly fast and indicates the horse is easily capable of running to 175 if needed and given the right conditions.

Glossy thinks Al Ferof has beaten better horses than the rest and I think he is very slow and needs a big step up in trip

It's what makes the game so interesting!

SS rating as it stands is a joke! nothing saying he won't achieve that mark in time but seriously over inflated right now(not to mention it's more or less been acquired on flat tracks) AF has stormed up this hill a couple of times now, SS came there swinging on the bridle the one time he encountered it and fell in a hole, why should this time be any different?

To my untrained eyes Al Ferof never looked like winning in the VC Chase at Ascot, and i think he did a classic whereby his finishing position and proximity to Finians Rainbow (who i give a chance to in the Champion Chase) and Somersby flattered his actual performance. We see it all the time when inferior horses outrun their ability in better races and people jazz them up. I remember a few years back people banged on about an Irish trained horse who in reality (even allowing for weight for age) ran a very average race given the weights in the Irish Champion Hurdle and thought he was the best thing since sliced bread as he finished fairly close to some once very good but at the time past their peak horses and proceeded to run like a donkey in the Triumph (think as favourite comically enough) - Lounas or something. Even on the All Weather recently a horse called Gorgeous Goblin was seriously flattered in a listed race at Lingfield due to the strong pace and got beaten in a class 5 handicap next time out, didn't even place. RPR's don't always work out.

In my opinion the only bet in recent weeks other than lumping on Sprinter Sacre which isn't my style, was Menorah either to place at 3/1 or each way at 16/1 whatever price he was. I can't see Cue Card being fast enough to win an Arkle but does also have fair place claims. Obviously horses need to stay well to win an Arkle but people forget that you need speed, Kicking King, War of Attrition etc were all obviously classy horses but were too slow to win an Arkle, does Al Ferof really look fast enough?

The way the market is reacting, Sprinter Sacre could start around 11/8 and Al Ferof around 9/4, the latter would look a horrible price to me, but this game is all about opinions as some on here view Menorah as a place lay which is fair enough, i assume they think he won't get round.

My view is if Menorah does put in a clear round then Sprinter Sacre is the only horse who can beat him. When on song Menorah has the speed to stay in contention, the festival winning form to stay up the hill, and he can quicken. The question is can he jump at Championship pace, we will find out next week. For those who slaughter his jumping, watch the Taunton race, it was his first novice chase after unseating Richard Johnson at Exeter so it's understable that he bunny hopped the first two, he didn't look comfortable at all etc, but once he got over that and though hey this is actually alright and when the pace was uplifted a jot i thought he jumped really well, some of the leaps were exceptional, then he came to the last and Richard Johnson asked him for a big one which is where he blundered badly. They are novices and some horses are a bit more unpredictable than others. Back on spring ground at what will hopefully be championship pace, he could surpise many.

If his jumping was A1 then he wouldn't be 10/1 and bigger prices a few weeks back but it pays to think outside the box.

Any way, best of luck to everyone with their bets. If Menorah doesn't win then i hope to see a mind blowing performance from Sprinter Sacre (well done to those who have him at bigger prices). And if Al Ferof doesn't do a Noland then fair play to his backers.

We are well thanks Judge, trust you are keeping well your goodself. Are you still lapping up the Comply Or Die Winnings! Have you got Sprinter Sacre at good prices for the Arkle? - well done if you have

Good man. No i didn't see your thread on Arctic Cosmos for the Leger as I rarely come on here, but do find some threads interesting. I also mainly bet on the AW now except for the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals so dont have much interest in the flat turf.

I have a good book on a few races so it's hard to pick out one horse but i do like Sadlers Risk for the Triumph just think he could be a lot better than what he's shown to date and the stiff course should really suit, the Fred Winter could have any number of angles into it but I feel Kazlian could do the business, I like Solix for the Jewson although think Sir Des Champs will win whatever race he runs in as he looks a proper horse and fancy So Young to run a big race in the World Hurdle. The Supreme looks a minefield, Monksland looks good for the Neptune. I have a few in mind for the handicap chases at big prices but am waiting for the final decs.

How about yourself?

Yes the good old days, lest we not forget!

And you have a good one mate.

He might have just outstayed more inexperienced horses? Noland had a future champion hurdler, a multiple festival winner and a multiple group race winner behind him in the supreme and he still proved to be far too slow for the arkle over fences.