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Extreme Conviction
07 Mar 12 12:04
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Date Joined: 30 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 363 | Blogger: Extreme Conviction's blog
I can't take credit for this selection given he was a horse I hadn't really paid much attention to until he was pointed out to by Fivebagken on my Coral Cup Thread. However, connections have since come out and said that the Pertemps Final is the aim and at 25/1 he makes plenty of appeal.

Bred to be very good on the flat (sibling Stormy River (RPR 122) won the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat) and he himself wasn’t bad recording an RPR of 107 when taking a listed contest as a 3 year old.

He then went other hurdles in France and has some very good form, including when finishing second in a Grade 1 on his final start. The winner has won a Grade 2 easily since and the 6th Roi Du Val had beaten Thousand Stars in the summer (also he was sent of favourite to beat Thousand Stars and Grand Crus in June)! I’m no expert on French form but he’s been given a handicap mark of 139 which could be lenient. Also last year he ran Spirit Son (OR154) to a nose off level weights with Barbatos (OR 142) in third.

He has since been sold to race over here for a massive 280,000 Euros, to put this into perspective, Triumph Hurdle favourite, Pearl Swan, only went for 90,000 Euros at the same sales. In my opinion if he’d been bought by one of the big UK stables (imagine there must have been interest for the price to get that high) he’d be about half the price he is. He’s only 6yo and the fact he’s still engaged in the World Hurdle suggests they think he could be a bit better than his 139 mark.

Connections have said in a recent interview he worked "very, very well" in a racecourse gallop at Newbury. At 25/1 he makes plenty of appeal in a wide open contest.

1pt E/W Saphir River 25/1 (General, BOG)
Pause Switch to Standard View Saphir River - 25/1 NRNB Pertemps
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Report fivebagken March 7, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
Good stuff EC, let's hope he lives up to his price tag.

Just noticed Bodog have trimmed him to 16s. They know CoolLaugh
Report Extreme Conviction March 8, 2012 9:17 AM GMT
A very shrewd operation! Timeform have him on 149 I believe, and although they usually have the French form rated higher than the official handicapper, there's usually not that much of a discrepency (or so I'm told!
Report motor roller March 8, 2012 9:41 AM GMT
Wont the ground (probably) be against him being a heavy or at Auteil very soft horse?
Report Cash Is King March 8, 2012 9:59 AM GMT
Another negative for me would be the trainer. How many Cheltenham winners has he trained, let alone Festival winners?
Report andy85 March 8, 2012 10:09 AM GMT
Form looks good and they paid a fair amount so they wouldn't do that for a complete donkey. Trainer does worry me too and soft ground form. However, who is to say it won't improve for better ground? Plenty of decent horses come from france where they have been running on soft ground
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