Cheltenham Festival
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PEDDLERS CROSS (FILL YOUR BOOTS).
Can't for my life understand why people see this as their nap of the week. I guess you need more than that so lets have a look at his chase form!
PC has had 3 chase runs this year, we all know about its last run where SS well and truely put PC in its place so lets look at its other two runs.
1ST RUN:
Bangor, 3 runner beginner chase.(All level weights)
Beat The chazer which has had one run since (4/7 Ludlow limited handicap) No festival entry for this horse.
3rd of 3 was Laterly (which on my ratings is the best horse PC has beat over fences) This horse won next time out (5 runner beginner chase at sedgefield) and has ran some respectable races since behind Bellvano and kings grey but no festival entry also.
PC 2ND CHASE RACE:
Bangor 5 runner novice chase.
PC did give weight all round in this race but since the 3rd,4th,5th haven't won a race between them since and of them the top rated is only 94 the form isn't even worth a shilling so we only have to concentrate on the 2nd here;
Minella Class, the only postive PC has beating this horse is that it gave him nearly a stone, MC has had two runs since, unseated and pulled up, MC is the top rated horse PC has beat and also the only horse that PC has beat with a cheltenham entry (Jewson 33/1 and coral cup 20/1) but the odds suggest it has little chance of a festival win.
IMO the only reason PC is favourite for the Jewson is its hurdle form cus its definately not on its chase form, PC will be a failed chaser and be back hurdling next year if not at aintree. This is my biggest lay of the festival good luck all.
Can't for my life understand why people see this as their nap of the week. I guess you need more than that so lets have a look at his chase form!
PC has had 3 chase runs this year, we all know about its last run where SS well and truely put PC in its place so lets look at its other two runs.
1ST RUN:
Bangor, 3 runner beginner chase.(All level weights)
Beat The chazer which has had one run since (4/7 Ludlow limited handicap) No festival entry for this horse.
3rd of 3 was Laterly (which on my ratings is the best horse PC has beat over fences) This horse won next time out (5 runner beginner chase at sedgefield) and has ran some respectable races since behind Bellvano and kings grey but no festival entry also.
PC 2ND CHASE RACE:
Bangor 5 runner novice chase.
PC did give weight all round in this race but since the 3rd,4th,5th haven't won a race between them since and of them the top rated is only 94 the form isn't even worth a shilling so we only have to concentrate on the 2nd here;
Minella Class, the only postive PC has beating this horse is that it gave him nearly a stone, MC has had two runs since, unseated and pulled up, MC is the top rated horse PC has beat and also the only horse that PC has beat with a cheltenham entry (Jewson 33/1 and coral cup 20/1) but the odds suggest it has little chance of a festival win.
IMO the only reason PC is favourite for the Jewson is its hurdle form cus its definately not on its chase form, PC will be a failed chaser and be back hurdling next year if not at aintree. This is my biggest lay of the festival good luck all.
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Don't fancy him at all. Horses that haven't had a run in the two months before the festival (since 2004) have a 4.46% strike rate, and backing each of these horses to level stakes would have resulted in a return of around 45% of your stake. There's no beating a prep run, and although it has become popular for trainers to believe they can get a horse ready for Cheltenham after a break, I believe there is only a few who manage it succesfully.
On top of that, your points about him having beaten nothing are perfectly valid. In fact I'm starting to believe that the Champion Hurdle 2nd may have taken a hell of a lot out of him, and he has not been the same horse since. It is too early to say either way about that yet, but we will know more in just over a week. |
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I see PC is very weak in the market, happy with my lay and the more I read the form for the Jewson the more I keep backing For Non Stop, this horse will be staying on hand over fist.
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P1ssing in to the wind !!
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fairly soild reasoning imo
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Simonsig. Bridle merchant and won't get up the hill.
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tidal bay= pig of a horse.
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Pig that won the arkle.
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Agree with Simonsig
And Batonnier strikes me as a horse who is massively underpriced, beating Broadbackbob & Secret Edge is not top form. |
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Quantitaveasing for me. really short imo for a top weight in a big field (i'm guessing) festival handicap.
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carn't spell
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Ian remind me is he in the arkle this year? im sure was laying in the gold cup.
you know the race for the best horses not pigs. |
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Three favourites that won't win:
Simonsig (Neptune) - won't get up the hill Riverside Theatre (Ryanair) - disappointed only previous run at track Chapoturgeon (Foxhunters) - won't stay the trip. |
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I cant see Steps to Freedom placing. Haven't run since November not for me.
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