Cheltenham Festival
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06 Mar 12
18:20
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30 Mar 08
Orsippus - 0.75pt E/W 33/1 NRNB (General)
Orsippus has gone off the same price the last two festivals and hit the frame and I wouldn't want to bet against him doing the same this year. Horses coming back in handicaps have a good record, for example last year Buena Vista won having taking a race the year before, and also A New Story, Tullamore Dew, Orsippus, Son Amix, Faasel and Consigliere placed having at least placed the year before in a handicap.
Orsippus is at his best in the spring and his whole campaign is likely to have been focused around a repeat bid in the Coral Cup. After finshing third behind Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter two years ago he took the end of season Grade 1 juvenile at Aintree. The 4/5 year old season is often a difficult one for horses stepping out of Juvenile company and this certainly looked the case before he came to life in last years renewal.
There's no doubting it was a good renewal with Carlito Brigante and Battle Group performing with credit at the other end of season festivals. Solix and For Non Stop have also shown very good form in novice chases this winter. Allowed to race of the same mark this year there seems to be no reason why he shouldn't run his race.
He has looked as good as ever and has recorded 7lb+ superior performances in his two preps compared to last season. At a recent preview night I attended, Phil Smith told the crowd how for every race they handicap they have to write a little blurb on it. For Orsippus' fourth behind Simonsig he was just given the comment 'was given a cheltenham handicap prep'. He looks to have been laid out for this and off a similar mark to last year he should be hard to keep out of the frame.
Megastar - 0.5pt E/W 40/1 NRNB (Boyle,VC, Lad)
At 40/1 NRNB I can't help but have a small each way bet on Megastar, after he was pointed out to me by a shrewd friend. He is another horse who has proven he likes the festival having finished fifth at the last two festivals. Firstly in the Champion Bumper and then last year in the Neptune. Off a handicap mark of 136 this is a far easier task.
If we just look at his hurdle form he still remains extremely unexposed with only 6 starts to his name. Over course and distance at last year's festival he finished 5th in the Neptune. The form of that race is red hot with the four horses ahead of him: First Lieutenant, Rock on Ruby, So Young and Oscars Wells. The winner has gone chasing but the other three are now rated 165, 157 and 160 respectively over hurdles. Also looking at his form it seems he has a strong preference for quick ground. On officially good ground his runs have been two wins (including Aintree Bumper) his two festival fifths and a third on his first chase start.
There is a fair chance that he could be massively on the downgrade but he's only 7 years old and if you just take the view he hates fences, then he still has a lot of potential. As a consequence 40/1 is worth a small each way bet if the shrewd handicap king Gary Moore lets him take part.
http://2012cheltenham.blogspot.com
Orsippus has gone off the same price the last two festivals and hit the frame and I wouldn't want to bet against him doing the same this year. Horses coming back in handicaps have a good record, for example last year Buena Vista won having taking a race the year before, and also A New Story, Tullamore Dew, Orsippus, Son Amix, Faasel and Consigliere placed having at least placed the year before in a handicap.
Orsippus is at his best in the spring and his whole campaign is likely to have been focused around a repeat bid in the Coral Cup. After finshing third behind Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter two years ago he took the end of season Grade 1 juvenile at Aintree. The 4/5 year old season is often a difficult one for horses stepping out of Juvenile company and this certainly looked the case before he came to life in last years renewal.
There's no doubting it was a good renewal with Carlito Brigante and Battle Group performing with credit at the other end of season festivals. Solix and For Non Stop have also shown very good form in novice chases this winter. Allowed to race of the same mark this year there seems to be no reason why he shouldn't run his race.
He has looked as good as ever and has recorded 7lb+ superior performances in his two preps compared to last season. At a recent preview night I attended, Phil Smith told the crowd how for every race they handicap they have to write a little blurb on it. For Orsippus' fourth behind Simonsig he was just given the comment 'was given a cheltenham handicap prep'. He looks to have been laid out for this and off a similar mark to last year he should be hard to keep out of the frame.
Megastar - 0.5pt E/W 40/1 NRNB (Boyle,VC, Lad)
At 40/1 NRNB I can't help but have a small each way bet on Megastar, after he was pointed out to me by a shrewd friend. He is another horse who has proven he likes the festival having finished fifth at the last two festivals. Firstly in the Champion Bumper and then last year in the Neptune. Off a handicap mark of 136 this is a far easier task.
If we just look at his hurdle form he still remains extremely unexposed with only 6 starts to his name. Over course and distance at last year's festival he finished 5th in the Neptune. The form of that race is red hot with the four horses ahead of him: First Lieutenant, Rock on Ruby, So Young and Oscars Wells. The winner has gone chasing but the other three are now rated 165, 157 and 160 respectively over hurdles. Also looking at his form it seems he has a strong preference for quick ground. On officially good ground his runs have been two wins (including Aintree Bumper) his two festival fifths and a third on his first chase start.
There is a fair chance that he could be massively on the downgrade but he's only 7 years old and if you just take the view he hates fences, then he still has a lot of potential. As a consequence 40/1 is worth a small each way bet if the shrewd handicap king Gary Moore lets him take part.
http://2012cheltenham.blogspot.com
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Some interesting views. Heard a lot about Orsippus the past couple of days. May have a nibble on that one especially
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nice write up.
Will they get in do you think? Currently #61 & 59 respectively. |
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cant believe they've not gone back to hurdling with megastar.....i e-mailed the moores when he was entered for TGT...hoping he would run....but they said they wanted to try and build his confidence up some more over the biggies....
might give it another go....will post if i hear anything. |
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Act Of Kalanisi, totally setup for this race
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Had a few quid on American Trilogy so far.
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Great write up as ever EC.
One I wouldn't mind getting your (or anybody's) thoughts on is Saphir River. Unraced over here but last time out he finished 2nd in a Group 1 at Auteuil, with the winner coming out and franking the form since. Shortly after that he was sold at the Arqana sales for 280,000 Euros, so clearly he must be held in high regard by the owners at least. To put that in perspective, Pearl Swan was sold at the same sales for 80,000, albeit he had achieved considerably less at that point in his career. I just feel he is an interesting proposition. Racing at Auteuil all the time means he's not had a race on festival type ground, but quicker going could well improve the horse for all we know. It's also worth noting that he ran Spirit Son to a nose over 2 miles 2f in Sept 2010. I'd be interested to hear if anyone else has thoughts on this one. |
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has got 5 entries @ the festival 5 bags....guess he'll show up somewhere..has lost plenty of times...but 139 could be ok...i'd watch the markets on the races his entered in........
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What about Spirit River? Tried fences ... didn't work. Won race 2 years ago. Form was iffy that time, same as it appears heading into next week. Only 4lbs higher that 2yrs ago, shouldn't lack for fitness coming from this stable ... maybe minded for the race? Only festival entry ... NRNB so money back if he doesn't go ... like his chances if he turns up
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gary moore said the other day that because megastar is yet to win over fences they are looking at protecting that now and having another go with him as a 2nd season novice so this hurdle run is simply a shot t nothing really, and how do horses that have been campaigned chasing all year fare when suddenly switched back to hurdles?
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I heard that interview on ATR and he also said Megastar had loads of niggly problems and has just come right, which was evidence by his improved effort over fences in his last run. Gary Moore finished the interview by saying dont give up on the horse because he is ''definitely coming right''.
Make of that what you will .. the VT does suggest he is coming into form even though it was a weak chase lto. |
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BraveIncas - IMHO Spirit River's form was excellent going into that race he won - he blundered a hurdle and was eased in the Gold Trophy when right there (I thought he was pulled up but just checked) ..... but he was running well that year as I was a big fan of his.
However you make a good point and he won well that day and if he's just 4lb higher then he is definately interesting..... certainly with a capable claimer! These are the ones that haunt you if you are an ex-fan of a horse, do I dare not back him now after being alerted to his participation and replying to this thread.  |
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Fair enough Ming - maybe i was wrong about his form 2yrs ago - had another look and he was unlucky in Newbury race ... still think Hendo might have been minding him for this race ... here is a comment in todays weekender
Spirit River 7 b g Poligolte - Love River He won the Coral Cup two seasons ago and will attempt a repeat. We've shelved the chasing plan once again because things just haven't clicked for him, despite the fact he's a really good jumper. He's in good form and this is a nice race for him. hmmmmm |
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To be honest there are a lot of outsiders you could make a case for, including Spirit River and Saphir River.
Saphir River certainly looks interesting 5BK, can't see it's a horse I'm familiar with though. Has some nice form in France and mark looks good. If he was trained by one of the powerhouse stables he'd be under half the price in my opinion. Plenty of entries though. |
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Orsippus decent place claims, Megastar hasnt the stamina to win a competitive race at this trip imo (would be better off in County Hurdle).
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read on sporting life that connections of saphir river are leaning towards the pertemps final
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Just saw that too. Think he's worth a bet at 25/1 NRNB.
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agree extreme,backed it yesterday for the pertemps,like act of kalanisi for the coral cup,stable know how to lay one out for the race
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agree extreme,backed it yesterday for the pertemps,like act of kalanisi for the coral cup,stable know how to lay one out for the race
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The returning from chasing angle has worked well for me in the past here, notably with Ilnamar. If a horse goes fencing and doesn't take to it at least it is protecting its' hurdles mark.
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Is Orsippus going for this or the Pertemps? Megastar - this or the County hurdle? If these two are fancied then Dare Me carrying a pound less must also be in with a shout particularly as Hobbs targets this race. Megastar beat Dare Me by about a length in the Bumper and again at Aintree and their form is pretty similar.
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