Fred Winter - NRNB - Discoteca

At number 44 in the weightst, Discoteca is uncertain to make the cut but if he does he is likely to be much shorter than the 20/1 currently available NRNB with Totesport and Betfred.

The first thing that must be noted about the horse is his connections. He is trained by Gordon Elliot who certainly does not waste a ferry fare, shown by his fantastic record at last season's festival. Over the four days he sent just 7 runners across and produced 2 winners (Chicago Grey, Carlito Brigante), 3 places (Jessie's Dream, Plan A, Beautiful Sound), His other two runners, Dirar and Tharawat, both finished within 2 lenghts of the places, so you can be sure anything he sends over will have been trained to the minute.

The same goes for horses from the Gigginstown House stable who have had an enviable record in recent seasons at the festival. They also seemed to be trained to peak for four days in March. As well as Carlito Brigante and Beautiful Sound running under the care of Elliot last March, they had winners in the form of First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs. When indenitfying their chances, the key is indentifying which horses will improve for the better ground they face compared to the soft ground in Ireland all winter. First Lieutenant is a good example of a horse who needs a sound surface, whereas, Tharawat prefers heavy ground, so his performance last year on quick ground should be upgraded.

One horse who will relish quicker conditions is DISCOTECA.

Classy flat runners have a good record in the Fred Winter and he was one of the best left in the field on the level. At his peak he was rated 92, finishing his flat career under the care of Andrew Balding off a mark of 88. Described after winning his final handicap as a "type to make a hurdler" he was duly snapped up at 44,000 guineas for the powerful Irish outfit. Both his flat wins came on good to firm ground, and although he placed in a 2 year old maiden on soft ground, he flopped during his three year old career at Royal Ascot the only other time he encountered cut.

He has only run three times over hurdles and 5 of the 7 runnings have been won by horses who had only had three runs over hurdles. This is likely to be because it gives the handicapper less chance to grasp the ability of a horse compared to those who have run four or five times. One of the exceptions was Gaspara, who had run more times but only three in the UK. Discoteca has run three times, however, two of them were on 'Soft to Heavy' ground which he hasn't been able to show anywhere near his full ability on.

Below are the comments made by Gordon Elliot before his three runs to date over hurdles.

27/12/2011 - "He's a nice horse having his first run over hurdles. He was a good horse on the flat for Andrew Balding (once rated 90) and could prove a nice acquisition for Gigginstown. He jumps very well at home and he'll appreciate the fact that the ground is not too bad at Leopardstown. Davy Russell will ride him not too far off the pace and I'm hopeful that he'll go close"

14/1/2012 - "Discoteca ran very well the last day when second in a good juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown. That was his first run over hurdles so I'd hope he'd show improvement for it. He's in good form at home but this is very competitive and the winner of the Leopardstown race (Chill) re-opposes without a penalty, while Willie Mullins' Ut De Sivola made a winning start over hurdles at Clonmel and looked pretty smart in doing so. Davy Russell rides our fella and even though this is a big step up in class, I'm hoping he can get into the frame."

25/2/2012 - "I thought he ran a race full of promise on his debut at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting but he was a little disappointing behind Ut De Sivola at Punchestown last time out. Davy (Russell) said he got a bit of a fright at one of the early hurdles and that affected him for the remainder of the race. I've said all along that I think he's a nice horse and that certainly hasn't changed. There are races to be won with him but, while he has the ability to go well this afternoon, he'll be a much better horse when he gets good ground."

It seems clear that his trainer still thinks a lot of him and in fact he is still entered in the Triumph Hurdle. Also his trainer thinks he'll be much better on a sounder surface so the fact that he's been handicapped on his debut and then two runs on heavy ground means potentially he could be much better than he has shown so far.

At first glance on his form shown so far he hasn't be chucked in off 122 but being a 90 horse on the flat who has a preference for better ground than he has encountered over hurdles, it would be disappointing if he couldn't be competitive off this kind of mark especially considering the regard his connections seem to hold him in. Also through a line on To The Sky he has the beating of Edeyemi who has been well supported today.

I'm convinced his connections well only let him take part if they think he is fully up to it, and if he does it's hard to see him being 20/1 on the day.

1pt E/W Discoteca 20/1 (Totesport/Betfred)