Quevega

Defo somethin to do with mullins horses, safe to say bit twitchy righ now myself..

Having a 4/1 saver on Unaccompanied not a bad shout if you knew she was not going to turn up if Quevega did. But in a weeks time the owners may fancy taking her on and then you have a bet on a horse to beat Quevega

Maybea punter balls deep on mullins horses has come into money doesnt need the bets anymore an thoughtf hed give us all a good. Scare.. Or a rogue bot....

Hurricane Fly 5/4 with Hills tomorrow morning 8.30

That is a bizarre spike in the price out to 2.5??? wtf!

Is that nrnb aswell masterminded? Iv already lost simonsig(supreme) and fingal bay antepost so i dont think i could cope with losin wuevega too. And do u know if the offer is available online re: hurricane fly

Plus could be a long shot but could bookmakers use betfair as a sampling location to insight into potential demand for sprcial offers? Dont shoot me down if laughable just a shot in the dark..

please let my fav girl run

Maybe it's down to people reading too much into Mullins choosing not to school his horses in the traditional post-racing gallop after Leopardstown today

The thing is Quevega would probs go out to 4/6 at least on the day. She won't be 1/2. People may know of offers coming up from bookies and are laying some off before getting a better price.

And yes I believe H Fly offer will be online

I guess that Leapardstown Gallop makes sense as usually he would give her final piece of work then.

Cant imagine how it would go out to 2.5 though on that. Strange Strange Strange

4/5 now twitch twitch

unaltered with the bookmakers though?

no money for anything else on betfair though, surely if quevega wasnt gonna be running then unacc's price would be shortening quickly as weld said she will run if quevega doesnt.

Not just the odd bit being taken at bigger prices now. Price has solidly moved out to 1.81.

back into 1.7.

make that 1.78, not got my contacts in!

With the fly offer out today on Hills, and the quote saying they will run an offer each day on a shorties, maybe people are expecting a Quevega offer on Tues?

Not sure what to make of Leopardstown as Mullins says they wanted to school the chasers so presume Quevega and H/Fly werent there anyway?

This is Quevega. We'll go apricots deep on the Tuesday knowing she'll not let us down. Although..,WILL SHE? This might be the one: perhaps this time. Is FOUR too many???. It wouldn't be letting down, though, would it? More like ' No horse can definitely win. She might drift, she might not, but there will be throngs of people waiting to back her at their 'price.' Then when that doesn't materialise, loads of us (her legions) will just go 'Bollocks, she'll win.  She'll tank down the hill with Ruby pulling double/hard on the steel, she'll cut through the pack, clout the last and stumble, giving us all nightmarishhhh oh god seconds, then she'll coast in by ten. God love Quevega.

she drifted out to 5/4 6/4 last yr on the day i believe, and then punted in.

all she has to do is fun to form and she'll slaughter the rest of them!

she should be running in the champion or world hurdle in truth. 2nd best horse in mullins stable behind h'fly!

fearless punter you are my hero i believe again!!

I'm no bet this year though. Just can't face it, don't need to have a PENNY on it as one way or the other she'll be box-office x

The super group of Fly Quevega and Boston Bob schooled at the Curragh on their own last week. They're the three best in his yard and get the superstar special treatment. None of them can be beat in their respective races. champion, Mares and Albert Bartlett.

cv u are my  new hero! the vibes are boston is a machine, thoughts?

He is a machine and will go for AB in my view. Mullins was impressed with Bobs jumping. I hear he can't see him being beat. Still haven't backed a Mullins horse in the wrong race to date. The Sous Les Cheux price cut for Neptune would point to Bob in AB. Mullins would have 2 in top 5 in betting Neptune if Bob went AB. Always works out. Also his son picked Bob as his Charity bet in the AB in a preview on thursday night.

Can't wait till Bob jumps a fence next year. RSA horse written all over him.

Working out whether to back Boston Bob in the Albert this year sets warning bells off about NOT backing Michael D'Haggeres a couple of years ago in the Ballymore cos I loved my heart horse Karabak. I WANTED Karabak to beat MDH, although I (probably knew K wouldn't win.) Like a fool DID I BET AGAINST MDH/Willy Mullins? Yes. Won't be fooled again...BB to stroll this it I reckon, Simonsig to fold up.

henderson has an atrocious rec in the neptune, quite amazingly out of his 22 or so runners, only 2 have finished better than 10th place ridiculous.

from what i see u want a battler and not a horse winning on the bridle.

boston bob for me too.

Don't get it. Simonsig nailed on to be in with a shout turning the corner in the Supreme.

Think Darlan is one of the reasons Simonsig is in Neptune

Darlan. Bridle ponce. Discuss.

Battled to victory at Chelts already once this season. So finds off bridle. I hear they can't see him beat hence Simonsig avoids him and goes for Neptune.

Which was the last horse to win a Supreme with anything even APPROACHING a big fat F for their last race? Can't win. Before you BEGIN to approach it on price terms...terrible record for shorties in race, so the price about this horse is ridiculous. Lay.

I'm all for stats and trends, as long as there is logic behind them. But what exactly is it that means an at the end of his form figures F means he cant win? If he turned up in a 2-runner novice hurdle the week after the Betfair against a 4 miler and came second, walking round, does that mean he then becomes a qualifier and his status changes from CAN'T WIN to CAN WIN?

No, it makes zero difference.

The truth is he would have been in the shake up in the Betfair, and the last two winners of that race were both involved in the business end of the Supreme Novices. But Darlan did it off a mark 10lbs higher.

i take your point marychain ,the problem is though a fall like that can knock a horses confidence,some animals never get over it ,some need a couple of races to regain their confidence,others are ok,the horse has been backed into favourite because of peoples perception of what was going to happen rather than what did in the befair,


each to their own though you pays your money and you takes your chance

'The truth is he would have been in the shake up in the Betfair, and the last two winners of that race were both involved in the business end of the Supreme Novices. But Darlan did it off a mark 10lbs higher.'

conditor 05 Mar 12 08:09

Yes, and couldn't carry the weight through to the end of the race. He fell. To me, that makes his price for the Supreme crazy.

JP seems absurdly bullish at a preview night last night from what I hear.

As for stats, there are no stats that apply for Supremes imv. Just that NH bred horses win them these days and flat horses win the champion hurdle.

Market prices don't mean anything, just because there was Cue Card and Dunguib beaten at short prices doesn't matter. The odds a horse is has no impact on his ability to win a race. The only thing to learn is that there's such little collateral form that nothing should be shorter than around 4/1 and be worth backing.

I admit I was sucked in by Dunguib and many accas went down with him, it was the start of the bloodbath festival for me. But I learnt from it, and have only 1 or 2 small plays in the race since. No point putting too much effort into it. Not enough collateral form.

Simple fact is regardless of your fancy for supreme, darlan would have been in the shake up and that is the best piece of form on offer from any of the novices in my opinion potentially running to a mark in the mid 150s+. although the fall could knock the horses confidence, I belive it has the right man on board to boot it into the hurdle if it becomes a bit twitchy.
Also, good to see quevega price settled down now, she makes or breaks my festival TBH.

Thought this thread was somewhat related to the title

I think that stats can be very unscientific and frankly illogical at times like these - as someone else has pointed out, why does it matter that the F is there? And surely a sample size of say, 20 races, isn't a strong enough sample to dismiss a horse based on a stat like that?

I would love for someone to back that stat up because I suspect it will be a very small sample with a lot of no hopers involved. Ridiculous stat.

Quevega (4/7) , Unaccompanied (6) , Our Girl Salley (10) , Swincombe Flame (12) , Kentford Grey Lady (14) , Violin Davis (16) , Alasi (20) , Blazing Tempo (20) , Baby Shine (25) , Ixora (25) , Kells Belle (25) , Lifestyle (25) , Shop Dj (25) , What A Charm (25) , Cloudy Spirit (33) , Dare To Doubt (33) , Golden Sunbird (33) , Terre Du Vent (33) , Veiled (33) , Dorabelle (40)  - Others  40 or more


OLBG MARES HURDLE

Nick Williams: There is no strength in depth in the mares race whereas there will be 24 runners in the Coral Cup so we will run Swincombe Flame here. I want to take the easier option and I think she will be in the first three.

Willie Mullins: Quevega schooled over hurdles at the curragh at the weekend,worked great but got a slight bang,nothing worrying though. Quevega gave herself a little bang during schooling. All ok. Loves the fast ground.

Ruby:

Quevega: "She doesnt turn up too often but when she does she's special. Hard to beat, obv. Unaccompanied is the only realistic danger" "I rode her (Quevega) this morning and we're ready to rock n roll"

hope she doesnt decide to walk through the last hurdle like last time, dont think my heart can take it!..

Nice quote from Ruby that. Look forward to rocking with Quevega and no rolling if possible

Can't wait to see her glide through the pack as they come round the corner, that acceleration that kick in so smoothly: hang on, she can't be traveling ANY easier. Though there's always that little cold slice of blood as she takes a little step, and, at long into odds-on/evens, she reaches for the last. Knocks through the top of the hurdle. Ruby snatches up the reigns and she...finds her feet and cracks on. Her Majesty The Que vega.

We will have a max field with 24 confirmed mares (from the 28 entered)

Alasi (GB) 8    11 5
Dare To Doubt (GB) 8    11 5
Kells Belle (IRE) 6    11 5
Our Girl Salley (IRE) 7    11 5
Quevega (FR) 8    11 5
Shop Dj (IRE) 7    11 5
Unaccompanied (IRE) 5    11 5
Violin Davis (FR) 6    11 5
Golden Sunbird (IRE) 8    11 3
Veiled (GB) 6    11 3
What A Charm (IRE) 5    11 3
Baby Shine (IRE) 6    11 0
Belle de Fontenay (FR) 7    11 0
Blazing Tempo (IRE) 8    11 0
Candelita (GB) 5    11 0
Cloudy Spirit (GB) 7    11 0
Dorabelle (IRE) 7    11 0
Himayna (GB) 8    11 0
Ixora (IRE) 6    11 0
Kentford Grey Lady (GB) 6    11 0
Swincombe Flame (GB) 6    11 0
Tempest River (IRE) 6    11 0
Terre du Vent (FR) 6    11 0
The Strawberry One (GB) 7    11 0

THAT's 24 all right

5 jocks so far confirmed

Candelita 5.m Jo Hughes............... Mark Grant
Himayna 8.m Frank Sheridan............ Giles Hawkins
Swincombe Flame 6.m Nick Williams..... Will Kennedy
Tempest River (IRE) 6.m Ben Case...... Aidan Coleman
Violin Davis (FR) 6.m Paul Nicholls... Daryl Jacob

What's Ruby on ??????????

has weld had a change of heart? hopefully not, and unacc is just still in there until the 11th hour in case quevega goes amiss.

What's Ruby on ?????????? BABY SHINE of course

Unaccompanied has not even been properly trained with a view to running at the festival since the fly race,she had a long rest after that and has not had a racecourse gallop since that day,she has just been kept upto her work at home,that is hardly the prep needed and she is highly unlikely to run if Quevega does,

Every now and then someone on this website provides some quality information ^^^^^^^.
Just to put your mind at rest when your in b*****k deep on this horse.

Quevega should be a 1/3 shot for this!

Agree with the comments on unaccompanied, the quote I heard from Dermot Weld was that she would only run if Quevega didn't, there seemed to be price action at 8s which would be a lay for me at this late stage. Even if she did run I would still have her at least 5 pounds behind Quevega anyway.

Unaccompanied has never raced over 2m4f either.

If unaccompanied did run she may give. Quevega something to think about and would being first 3.

How does 400 on quevega at 1/2 bog odds and nrnb with bet 365 and 50ew on unaccompanied 5/1 nrnb sound for a bet?

Ladbrokes going 4/6 now

just pugged more on quevega. this is my banker of the festival. only reason she aint 1/3 is cos she aint had a prep run, and even though she has managed it for the past couple of years there is always a tiny doubt until they do it on the course.

the ground should be nice and good for her anyway.

I've just done Unaccompanied ew as a saver.  If Quevega doesn't run or runs below form surely she is the only one who can mop up the pieces?

We're told she likes it with cut, but the good ground in the Triumph didn't inconvenience her.  Still think Quevega wins (and had my biggest bet of the festival on her) but Unaccompanied is an ew bet to nothing imo.  If he runs she will be about 11/4, 3/1 imo

Only niggle of doubt for me is she's never ran further than 21f.

* Sorry - 17f

have i got this wrong but isnt she not going to run, i was under the impression she d purely been declared in case the fav misses the gig, unless weld has changed tack and ive missed it...she would be a pro ew play if running still think she d be a distant 2nd.

I see ladbrokes went out on a limb with the 4/6, now back into 4/9, lasted about 45 mins.

Yeah thats true Istabraq - Weld always said she won't run if Quevega does but I've done it NRNB 5/1 because if he changes his mind I can see her being an 11/4 shot so not much scope for each way play.

Her price on here is still 7.0 (not NRNB) so I wouldn't say she's a definite non runner yet - the beauty of NRNB concessions.  Now's the time to get value imo.

for sure, certainly agree with the timing and price of the bet...gl

Put 300 on a 4/6 with Lads to go with the 200 @ 5/4. Have done £50 EW with lads Unaccompanied @ 5/1 (NRNB)

Agree its an EW bet to nothing as if the worst happened at Quevega had a knock on weekend then Unaccompanied would run and be 5/4. If Unaccompanied does not run then Quevega wins on a tight bit.

If Unaccompanied does run and comes in first 3 make a small profit and if she beats Quevega and causes a slight shock then covered off most of my Quevega stake out.

Looking forward to the race.

After all that watch Alasi win and cause a major shock with the two irish horses falling.

After all that watch Alasi win and cause a major shock with the two irish horses falling.


Please don't say things like this. Iv'e done exactly the same as you except I done a large double on sprinter when he won the game spirit at 8/13 and quevega at 4/6. Covered it with an e/w on unaccompanied.

I just hope you now havn't put the kiss of death on it.

It actaully looks like theres more depth to this years renewal than has been since the races inception. Allowing for the fact Quevega will have a deal in hand on official ratings there are a good few unexposed mares who may find significant improvement come the day. these include Kentford Grey, Swincombe, Baby Shine, Shop DJ and to a lesser extent Our Girl Salley and Alasi not to mention the possibilty that unaccompanied may line up (despite what the trainer claims at the moment).

I'd rate both OGS and Alasi over the 4 that you've mentioned there yort. Funny how opinions differ!

I take your point and am a big Alasi fan but she is well held on last years running. The point I was making is horses like the ones I mentioned arent fully exposed yet, especially Kentford Grey Lady who I think is on a huge upward curve and even Baby Shine who looks a very promising novice.

Robbie McNamara said tonight that Unaccompanied is 'unlikely to run' next week!

Yort, I am more than happy to accept the others are open to improvement but if for instance we base the ratings on an unaccompanied less Mares hurdle then she potentially has between 12-14 pounds in hand. You could see a horse improve 3 or 4 pounds but the gap they face is enormous. I know bookmakers like to take on short ones but this race has all the make up of Masterminded second champion chase win. The field look equally out of their depth. In my mind if she doesn't fall she wins

Ignoring her mares race form her other form is outstanding. Bar an accident, which can always happen, she is by far the most bomb-proof favourite of the meeting even more so than the likes of Big Bucks. She can run quite a bit below her best and still win. Money for old rope big time.

Again, she is a 1/3 shot for this race!

will be a max field going to post so just hope one of the duck eggs doesnt bring her down.

Bit strange P Powers still going stand out 4/7 about her isnt it COM2 ??. I suppose with 24 runners though 3s on would be a bit short.

They'll cop on eventually - They obviously haven't realised yet that Unaccompanied is an unlikely runner!

power now 1/2, 4/7 available with will hill - the only bookie on oddschecker not doing NRNB for the race. dastardly firm.

easy Winner of 2 grade 1 hurdles against the boys
easy Winner of 3 grade 2 mares hurdles
easily beat multiple grade 1 winners such as Mourad,Voler la vedette,Mikael DH
Only beaten 3 lengths by Solwhit and Champion Hurdle winner Punjabi(at his peak)in the 2009 Rabobank Champion Hurdle over a trip to short for her
3/3 cheltenham course wins

this is a 1/50 shot,bookies should not even be taking bets on her

Quevega

She is the only one who has the outcome totally in her own hands. If she runs anywhere near her form without accidents that is it. We cannot say that for certain about SS HF SE or BB.

I have to disagree and believe that there are plenty out there who feel that HF and SE have it all in there own hands also,

Unaccompanied is unlikely to take her chance in the OLBG Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday.

She was left in the Grade Two contest, formerly known as the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle, as a precaution in case something happened to Quevega, winner of the race for the last three years.

The Dermot Weld-trained five-year-old, fourth to Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion Hurdle on her latest start, will probably revert to the Flat for next month's Alleged Stakes at the Curragh, which she won last spring.

"I don't think she'll run at Cheltenham. She was entered just in case something happened to the favourite. She'd have a great chance then," said Stan Cosgrove, racing manager for owners Moyglare Stud.

"She'll run later on, maybe the Alleged Stakes back on the Flat.

"We'll probably keep her on the Flat for this year and she'll be a great mare to breed from when she retires.

"This may be her last year."

Formman I hope you are right as I am up to my neck in both. I was splitting hairs really and was just trying to highlight the situation wrt Quevega.

Most on this thread are in agreement that the prices for this event haven't made much sense for a while. Whilst the various formlines in some of the races are difficult to fathom and cases can be made for various horses / taking on the favourite in this one its very difficult to make a case for anything else.

There is barely a horse rated 140 in this line up yet alone officially 158. Plus she has notched up four marks on the spin between 155 - 158 which highlights her consistency. I thought best price by now would be 4/9.

depends how willys first few run on the day. if the fly wins and any of his others run well then the bookies will be running for cover, if quevega wins they could be getting taken out on stretchers.

if mullins has a dodgy start to the day and the hotpots are getting turned over then they may dangle a carrot for punters to try and recoup losses in hope that she somehow gets beat.

MACHINE - she will literally eat these on Tuesday.... I'm convinced this will be her most impressive victory EVER in Cheltenham

Steam in, she wont even get pushed out this time.....

Well, no, she won't LITERALLY eat them will she?

If HF gets beat , there will be no carrot dangled for quevega

Opens up 2/5

left in the World Hurdle today

wallet says run her in mares hurdle, heart says run her against big bucks and have a decent world hurdle for once.

only reason i can think of is in case something goes amiss with big bucks before tuesday?

they might as well just run thousand stars in it - he has more chance of picking up prize money in this than the champion. quevega wins the mares - decent return for the hammer n trowel syndicate.

She only runs twice a year, might as well get them both out of the way in the same week...

Left in World Hurdle in case she falls early on Tues , she should be fresh mind lol.

0111U1 Alasi 45  8 11-5  P R Webber  D Elsworth  138    SP SP
14/1 
  315331 Dare To Doubt 12  8 11-5  W P Mullins   141    SP SP
25/1 
  30-3241 Kells Belle (IRE) 66  6 11-5  N J Henderson   132    SP SP
33/1 
  660313 Our Girl Salley (IRE) 52  7 11-5  Mrs Prunella Dobbs  B J Geraghty  137    SP SP
10/1 
  3011/1-1 Quevega (FR) 313  8 11-5  W P Mullins   158    SP SP
1/2 
  314142 Shop Dj (IRE) 93  7 11-5  Peter Fahey   126    SP SP
33/1 
  12-4114 Unaccompanied (IRE) 44  5 11-5  D K Weld   157    SP SP
6/1 
  23-1331 Violin Davis (FR) 52  6 11-5  P F Nicholls  D A Jacob  135    SP SP
14/1 
  3F1444 Golden Sunbird (IRE) 54  8 11-3  Paul Nolan   133    SP SP
33/1 
  4/611-45 Veiled 129  6 11-3  N J Henderson   137    SP SP
33/1 
  501-030 What A Charm (IRE) 45  5 11-3  A L T Moore   125    SP SP
33/1 
  1134-12 Baby Shine (IRE) 27  6 11-0  Mrs L Wadham  L Aspell  125    SP SP
20/1 
  1P2233 Belle De Fontenay (FR) 76  7 11-0  George Baker   114    SP SP
100/1 
  143111 Blazing Tempo (IRE) 51  8 11-0  W P Mullins   131    SP SP
20/1 
  215153 Candelita 103  5 11-0  Jo Hughes  M D Grant  112    SP SP
100/1 
  4-52453 Cloudy Spirit 13  7 11-0  R Hollinshead  T J Murphy  132    SP SP
33/1 
  2146F4 Dorabelle (IRE) 23  7 11-0  D McCain Jnr  J M Maguire  126    SP SP
40/1 
  P333P6 Himayna 8  8 11-0  F Sheridan  Giles Hawkins  93    SP SP
250/1 
  116231 Ixora (IRE) 150  6 11-0  Jamie Snowden  T J O'Brien  133    SP SP
20/1 
  0-53112 Kentford Grey Lady 52  6 11-0  Miss E C Lavelle  N Fehily  134    SP SP
10/1 
  1-21113 Swincombe Flame 24  6 11-0  Nick Williams  W Kennedy  134    SP SP
10/1 
  41-3412 Tempest River (IRE) 49  6 11-0  B I Case  Aidan Coleman  117    SP SP
40/1 
  F Terre Du Vent (FR) 17  6 11-0  T R George    -     SP SP
33/1 
  266560 The Strawberry One 32  7 11-0  D W P Arbuthnot   128    SP SP
66/1

Quevega (4/7) , Unaccompanied (11/2) , Our Girl Salley (10) , Swincombe Flame (10) , Kentford Grey Lady (12) , Alasi (16) , Violin Davis (16) , Blazing Tempo (20) , Shop Dj (20) , Baby Shine (25) , Dare To Doubt (25) , Ixora (25) , Kells Belle (25) , What A Charm (25) , Cloudy Spirit (33) , Golden Sunbird (33) , Terre Du Vent (33) , Veiled (33) , Dorabelle (40) , Tempest River (40)  - Others  66 or more

Dermot weld confirmed to ATR that unaccompanied was a definite non-runner. Quevega can only shorten up from here really. Surprised thats billy's were still 4/7 bigger than on here once commission taken into account.