Cheltenham Festival
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04 Mar 12
17:20
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28 Jun 10
I ask genuinely as I don't know the answer but whilst we were praising Nicholls and his team for their integrity isn't it conceivable that had it been one of the more regularly castigated teams there would have been many calls of foul given his lazarus like recovery?
Not a single person from the team wanted to lay him at short odds when he was 50/50 to take part?
Not a single person from the team wanted to lay him at short odds when he was 50/50 to take part?
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Replies: 21
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Juast to clarify he didn't drift between the fall and Nicholl's announcement.
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I dont know either but if he wasnt layed its presumably because he got up after the fall and looked fine
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too goo a horse and too much of a risk maybe
safer to shorten the odds on long run was wiser |
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So here is the theory. Possibly and maybe probably wrong but here goes:
He has a relatively minor mishap on the gallops and is a trifle sore as a result. Nicholls being the astute tactician that he is realises that he can set the cat amongst the pigeons with Henderson and issues a very downbeat bulletin. Now all the way to the race and indeed in the race not only does Waley COhen have his own mount on his mind but how is Kauto travelling? Is he the same horse after nearly not making it? In his mind he knows he has the beating of the rest any way the race pans out. So, the tactics have been worked out. They aren't going to beat Long Run riding from the front like last year as he will wear Kauto down. His one chance is to pounce between the last two, outjump Long Run at the last and hope to last home. The fall narrative buys into that whole race panning out theory because Waley Cohen may not press the button early enough feeling he has everything covered. In short is this some kind of Machiavellian masterstroke giving Kauto his best chance of springing a surprise? |
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But there was supposedly several days between the fall and Nicholls report a time when he is saying that the horse was far from fine and not one single employee or friend of a friend laid the horse on here?
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Personally dont think thats the case. SWC will run his own race and I guess it will be to sit on LR as long possible before making a move.
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Again I dont know but im guessing kauto had a 'routine' fall and got up fine (Any fall can be described as pretty awful but i cant see it being that bad on a training ground). Maybe he had a bruise on his arse so they got him looked at because they really want him 100% to run. Maybe Clifford says a few days later that Kauto isnt 100% and if they need him 100% then its in the balance (Nicholls has been quick to point out that its the head lads opinion on the 50/50 and not the trainers).
Once they announce this, Walsh and Smith are probably quite surprised but they cant say 'aw ballcks he'll be fine' because a) they know they wont run him if anythings even slightly wrong and b) if he has a fall in the GC theyll look neglectful. So basically hes fine but the head lad is making everyone paranoid |
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And yet not even the slightest drift in the meantime?
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Knowing that the horse has never previously fallen on the gallops?
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And at 12 I don't suppose anything is taken as routine regarding a fall.
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The fact that he hasnt fell during schooling before is a worry (for me even if the yard apparently werent bothered). Somebody on here suggested Ruby may have asked him to fiddle one which is poosible but pure guesswork. If theyve got him really fit and if he got up fine from the fall and looked ok for the next 24 hours then maybe the yard were no less positive. Could be wrong about all of this but I just cant see why there would be anything more sinister at work
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Ruby may have asked him to fiddle one
The horse not the trainer.... |
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well lets put it another way millions now no the facts and he,s still under 5,s on here,what odds would you have wanted the lads to lay him at,
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This is pretty much exactly how i feel about this whole story. A lot of conspiracy theorists out there now but the fact that the animal did not drift in the slightest between the fall and the announcement tells me all i want to know and believe. I have given all my reasons and theories on another thread.
One thing is for certain however! However trivial a fall, if it was in any other yard, especially hendos, it would have defo drifted to around 10 - 12 area in the days leading up to an announcement! And we would all have been on here wondering and worried as to what was happening! We need to and should remember how legitimate a trainer and how honest towards the general public PN is compared to some of his counterparts! |
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load of bollocks seathestars, why would you lay the 2nd fav for the gold cup at 12 to 1 when its 50 , 50 to run and now 3 days later 70, 30 to run,u,d have to no it wasnt a starter,so if your mate nichols is so transparent why hasnt he stated its very doubtful,you want your cake and eat it
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Agree with FTP - it wasnt layed because its still got a bl00dy good chance of winning and nothing to do with the yard being honest. imo.
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I am going to stop posting on here until you uneducated lot start to read everything i post for what it means! Starting to really get annoyed now!
Here we go again if it was in any other yard, especially hendos, it would have defo drifted to around 10 - 12 area in the days leading up to an announcement! Someone will have laid him out to this price as has been the case of many horses that have had mishaps and are still due to run or not! Ffs Peddlers Cross was touching 10 - 12 only yesterday, back into 8 now but we still await news on him! |
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And PC still doesnt have a blo0dy good chance of winning the Arkle?
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Not if he doesnt run in it no
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you,ve lost me sts,are you saying they ramp it out to back it back in again,if thats the case why do they need a scare story they can just do it anyway and hope the theres no smoke without fire vibes follow them in
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cant jump at home must be a worry at Chelt when pressure comes on wouldnt be the !st time.
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