Arkle - about the only race i have a perfect book in

similar book to you seathe  minus sprinter ....al ferof win ,menorah e.way ,cue card e.way probably find a way to get em all out the frame !

Yes, Yes... Mayweather is back!

Below are my antepost bets for the Arkle, I have mixed feelings at the moment due to Peddlers Cross trainer Donald McCain messing about!

£7.50 E/W Sprinter Sacre at 12/1
£42.50 E/W Sprinter Sacre at 10/1
£5 E/W Sprinter Sacre at 8/1
£5 E/W Sprinter Sacre at 6/1
£20 win Sprinter Sacre at 3/1

£20 win Peddlers Cross at 8/1
£5 E/W Peddlers Cross at 7/1
£40 E/W Peddlers Cross at 6/1
£10 E/W Peddlers Cross at 5/1
£10 win Peddlers Cross at 4/1


£5 E/W Al Ferof at 14/1
£5 E/W Al Ferof at 8/1
£12.50 E/W Al Ferof at 7/1
£20 win Al Ferof at 4/1

£15 win Cue Card at 12/1

None of these bets are NRNB so you can see why I am annoyed with the messing about with Peddlers Cross. I need it to run because I need to win this race.I have laid a lot out on it.

Mayweather

Lol Mayweather/Eric. Care to tell us why you opened ANOTHER account? Deary me.

The same reason the Cheltenham Festival comes back every year... because you/the peeople NEED ME!

Thing is you never or very rarely get a 'rag' placing in a major grade 1 race at a festival, especially cheltenham, you do in the handicaps, and sometimes in grade 3s but seldom do you in the very top flight which is why i am excited by my book.

Of course as i said above i was waiting to back PC on or near the day and was hoping for 4/1+. All my bets are e.w inc SS at 9/4. I set myself a limit of price, e.w if 2/1+ win only all bets under this. I do this cos as said in above paragraph and i cannot see anything other than already backed being good enough to win this race, it is going to cut up pretty badly i think will have no more than 8 runners, possibly 7! I am happy because if PC does run, his price is likely to be closer to 5/1 than 4/1 now after all of these will he wont he is he ok rumors.

For you anoraks out there

I mean, when was the last total 'no hoper' that won this race or any other championship race at the festival
And when was the last 16/1+ winner of one of these races And what race was it

just joking about getting em all out the frame easy to see your 4 in any order fighting out for the win and places ,by the way who is your biggset winner of the 4

Peddlers Cross is biggest winner. Sprinter Sacre only slightly less.

I need one of my main 3 to win. I think Sprinter will win by 10 lengths but I prefer if they all ran.

You seem to be in a good position for this race - good luck.

If a rag doesn't win the Championship races, why the hell do you have at least 10 horses in your Gold Cup portfolio?

For me Alf is by far my biggest winner, CC close behind 2nd SS is 3rd Men 4th but any of the 4 winning gives me profit even if i miss the places which does not seem likely.

Just looking up the past winners of a couple of these races and i can't see one.

Of the champ hdl,

In 2007 Sublimity was 16/1, - but i do not count that one in that year as i backed it and was no shock to me, the only shock was the price he was!

And in 2002, Hors 111 was i think a 12/1 poke, i remember backing this also as the year istabraq was not there could not see past this one.

Arkle
Since 2000 the longest priced winner was very get able, 8/1 forpadydeplasterer, the longest priced winner i could see in the last 15 years was in 1999 at 11/1, only 3 horses have placed at odds of 10/1+ since 1999.

Ok, only 2 races i have looked up, but there is a trend there for gr1 festival races in there somewhere.

there has been some big priced winners in the Grade 1s, mainly the novices. Arcalis,Ebaziyan,Berties Dream,Go Native etc etc

Arctic Kinsman won the Supreme at 50/1, Sausalito Bay was 20/1 when he won and who was that Stayers Hurdle winner at 50s? Duke Nicholson trained it... err??

All of those winners were in the time before the revamped new drainage system was built on the course though was it not? Thus ensuring near perfect ground every year. Plus in the last 15 years or so, people have become ever more wise as to what horses run where and there etc etc with the implementation of the betting exchanges the markets can be followed more thoroughly and in a lot of times non runners e.g are known before the press.

Admittedly, you do get the odd one, but one every couple years has not happened in the last 10 has it?

no it was good ground apart from the Stayer who I forget

Er Punjabi 2009 - 22/1. That probably doesn't count as STS backed that one as well

Well this year maybe i can see a slight shock in the supreme, the way that race has been shaping up, if the winner come from outside the top 5 i wouldnt be completely surprised but i just hope it is.
Of the Arkle, it is very difficult indeed to see the winner not being in the top 5.

Apologies to those above the races i was thinking of and i no i should have pointed out about that i was thinking of are

arkle
champ hdl
champ chs
stayers
gold cup

I wasnt actually inc the supreme, maybe i should have.

lol roobuck.

I did as it happens

Of course you did - never in doubt

No i didn't really. Yes and thank you for pointing out these winners, few and far between they are and far fewer than in handicaps or supporting races i hasten to add so i will continue to believe they dont happen, until of course one does and i say to myself

where the fook did he come from

that is of course unless ive backed it

JUDO

ANZUM     came from a mile back and beat the Charlie Swan ridden favourite.  LE COUDRAY?????

Made in Japan was 20/1

course ANZUM how could I forget! Wasn't Fundamentalist 16/1 for the Sun Alliance Hurdle and what about Bostons Angel last year in the RSA Chase. Rule Supreme was 28/1 in the RSA in 2004 when he won. Cue Card in the Bumper - 40s was it?

Just think it is a dodgy game dismissing horses because of price and it is not one of the factors I use

Was any of them 'championship' races? Didn't think so.

Imo champ races are the champ hdl, champ chs, stayers and gold cup! I (but only loosely) inc the Arkle as a championship race for fencers starting out in their field, you got to jump stay and have speed for the Arkle and how many have gone on to be gold cup winners in the past compared to any of the other races run for novices that week?

Yes granted you do get the odd big priced horse winning these races, but no where near as often as in the others, so i think i am safe to discount the bigger priced horses, but only in the above mentioned. I am not saying i do not look at them to see if they are over priced, something i am missing etc, tis why i backed sublimity in his champ hdl, wasnt my main bet by far, was just enough to cover outlay on race, didn't have to be at the price and Punjabi was only a 12/1 chance in the antepost lists in the couple months leading up to his champ hdl but was a very big drifter on the day.

You are right about the Championship races.....but then add the Arkle because it suits your argument and is a race that you have a decent book on.

I repeat my quesyion if you claim that 'rags' rarely win or place in the Championship races, why have you backed at least 10 for the GC?

I'm sorry STS but this is a 'look at me aren't I clever' type of thread

^ *question ffs

Newmill was around 16/1 when winning the QMCC (on good ground)

I have backed a lot of horses at big prices for the gold cup yes but i fig those horses that i backed had at the time the potential to fill out the 8 - 20/1 spaces for the race market on the day. To which by the looks of things, seems to be the case. Something has to place and these are backed at the big prices to try and secure the 2nd and or 3rd spot in the race. I do think LR and KS might fill the first 2 but if anything were to happen to them i would like to think i have bagged the winner at 20/1+ for a small investment thus ensuring small profit. I am in deep on LR and KS compared to these 'rags'. Also we all know that them places are often filled by these so called 'rags'. This is unique i feel to this race.

I did not inc the Arkle because it suits my argument at all. Although at the beginning this did have a smell of look at me i have perfect book.

I think we can conclude plenty of ''outsiders'' win at the Festival. Everything is primed for the week afterall.

Thing is you never or very rarely get a 'rag' placing in a major grade 1 race at a festival, especially cheltenham

Also we all know that them places are often filled by these so called 'rags'.

Make your mind up ffs

mon mone 3rd 2010 gold cup at 50/1

I think we can just let this thread drop off the bottom now, i no what i think and it is hard to put down in words as to why i think like this. My methods are successful for me and that is all that matters.

Thing is you never or very rarely get a 'rag' placing in a major grade 1 race at a festival, especially cheltenham, you do in the handicaps, and sometimes in grade 3s but seldom do you in the very top flight which is why i am excited by my book.


Is that because we have shown that your original point, copied above, turned out to have next to no validity?

That point has validity in certain races but not others. It has in the Arkle, as to the very race it was ment to mean for, there are other races where rags rarely get near the places in. The gold cup however is an exception, which has been debated on here in the last couple months or so as to the reason why.

the Arkle & Champion Chase are the two which dont see many big priced fancies win/pace, but everything else is fair game, Jeff.