Cheltenham Festival
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02 Mar 12
16:31
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
The banks races have often been seen as an Enda Bolger benefit race, but over recent seasons the tide has been turning against him and his brigade. One reason that could be put forward for this is now horses from other trainers have gained more experience round the course and hence are much more suited to the unique test it provides. Below are the RPRs for the more frequent competitors in these kind of races. The RPRs WITHOUT brackets are those achieved at Cheltenham, whereas, those WITH are for the Punchestown's banks course. The most recent rating is on the right.
Garde Champetre - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152, (125), 160, 146, 143, (131)
Lacdoudal - 136, 140
Sizing Australia - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143, 144
A New Story - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141, 142, 129?
L'Ami - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Silver Birch - 137, (131), 150, (132), 114, (126), 87
Drombeag - (111), 135, 129, (131), PU, 132, (122)
Dix Villez - (120), 136, 112, UR
Native Jack - (127), 134, (71), 130, (115), 77, 134
Freyneys Well - (113), 121, 128, (123), (126), 137, (98), 137, (137), (128), 125, 94, (128)
Heads Onthe Ground - (119), 122, (106), (141), 145, (137), (145), (127), 100, (67)............
Wonderkid - (103), 116, (99), (PU), 134, 107, (134), (124), PU, 93
Royal Auclair - 129, 124, 133, 144, 119
Double Dizzy - 130, 125, 128, 128?
Interestingly the great Spot Thedifference unseated first time out over a banks course after 'virtually refusing' and Garde Champetre failed to complete also. They of course went on to master the cross country course at Cheltenham and perhaps managed to continue defying the handicapper because of how much improvement each horse can make after an additional run over the unique course.
This lead me last year to put up Maljimar Ante Post E/W at 14/1. After cruising the whole way round, he looked home for all money before folding tamely after the last. Which leads me to my second point that many it seems the public have not grasped onto yet. You need a horse who will stay the full 3 miles 7f even if they do go round at a slow pace for most of it.
Looking at the past winners they tend to be decent stayers and not 2/2.5 milers
Sizing Australia and Garde Champetre - Although both capable over shorter, interestingly they were both sent to the 4 MILE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE as novices.
A New Story, Native Jack and Spotthedifference - All regulars in long distance handicap chases, the first first two took part in multiple Irish Nationals, and the latter, Grand National. November winner, Uncle Junior, has won over 30f.
In fairness Headsontheground had form over all trips from 2 miles to 3 miles. One horse who this is likely to affect is Scotsirish who will have to show remarkable adaptability to run Big Zeb close over 2 miles, and then three months later be able to win over 3m7f at the festival.
Remember, both his wins over a XC course have come over 3 miles and he has an extra 7f and a hill to face at Cheltenham. It is anyones guess if he would have won at Cheltenham in December and for that reason 5/2 seems on the skinny side for me at this point.
At the moment the most likely winners for me are Sizing Australia and Uncle Junior with age looking like it's just catching up on past winners Garde Champetre and A New Story. However, at the prices I can't leave alone Quezac De La Roque E/W at 25/1 with Ladbrokes (NRNB, Top 4 places).
He came fifth in the race last year when the front five were well clear of the rest. The four that beat him were the winners of the last four renewals and the classy Maljimar. That was his first run over the banks course here and from the stats above there seems no reason why he shouldn't be able to improve on that performance with more experience. Also it must be noted he was only a 7 year old last (who have a shocking record in these kind of races) and with another year on his back there is a good chance he might be just that bit stronger at the business end of the race. Interestingly he has been running all winter over the Cross Country course at Pau which will have no doubt given him more experience of the unique test that a cross country course presents.
0.75pt E/W Quezac De La Roque 25/1 NRNB Ladbrokes (1/4 odds, top 4)
All my pieces are posted on my blog below. Will be trying to get out a few more before the Festival.
http://2012cheltenham.blogspot.com/
EC
Garde Champetre - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152, (125), 160, 146, 143, (131)
Lacdoudal - 136, 140
Sizing Australia - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143, 144
A New Story - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141, 142, 129?
L'Ami - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Silver Birch - 137, (131), 150, (132), 114, (126), 87
Drombeag - (111), 135, 129, (131), PU, 132, (122)
Dix Villez - (120), 136, 112, UR
Native Jack - (127), 134, (71), 130, (115), 77, 134
Freyneys Well - (113), 121, 128, (123), (126), 137, (98), 137, (137), (128), 125, 94, (128)
Heads Onthe Ground - (119), 122, (106), (141), 145, (137), (145), (127), 100, (67)............
Wonderkid - (103), 116, (99), (PU), 134, 107, (134), (124), PU, 93
Royal Auclair - 129, 124, 133, 144, 119
Double Dizzy - 130, 125, 128, 128?
Interestingly the great Spot Thedifference unseated first time out over a banks course after 'virtually refusing' and Garde Champetre failed to complete also. They of course went on to master the cross country course at Cheltenham and perhaps managed to continue defying the handicapper because of how much improvement each horse can make after an additional run over the unique course.
This lead me last year to put up Maljimar Ante Post E/W at 14/1. After cruising the whole way round, he looked home for all money before folding tamely after the last. Which leads me to my second point that many it seems the public have not grasped onto yet. You need a horse who will stay the full 3 miles 7f even if they do go round at a slow pace for most of it.
Looking at the past winners they tend to be decent stayers and not 2/2.5 milers
Sizing Australia and Garde Champetre - Although both capable over shorter, interestingly they were both sent to the 4 MILE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE as novices.
A New Story, Native Jack and Spotthedifference - All regulars in long distance handicap chases, the first first two took part in multiple Irish Nationals, and the latter, Grand National. November winner, Uncle Junior, has won over 30f.
In fairness Headsontheground had form over all trips from 2 miles to 3 miles. One horse who this is likely to affect is Scotsirish who will have to show remarkable adaptability to run Big Zeb close over 2 miles, and then three months later be able to win over 3m7f at the festival.
Remember, both his wins over a XC course have come over 3 miles and he has an extra 7f and a hill to face at Cheltenham. It is anyones guess if he would have won at Cheltenham in December and for that reason 5/2 seems on the skinny side for me at this point.
At the moment the most likely winners for me are Sizing Australia and Uncle Junior with age looking like it's just catching up on past winners Garde Champetre and A New Story. However, at the prices I can't leave alone Quezac De La Roque E/W at 25/1 with Ladbrokes (NRNB, Top 4 places).
He came fifth in the race last year when the front five were well clear of the rest. The four that beat him were the winners of the last four renewals and the classy Maljimar. That was his first run over the banks course here and from the stats above there seems no reason why he shouldn't be able to improve on that performance with more experience. Also it must be noted he was only a 7 year old last (who have a shocking record in these kind of races) and with another year on his back there is a good chance he might be just that bit stronger at the business end of the race. Interestingly he has been running all winter over the Cross Country course at Pau which will have no doubt given him more experience of the unique test that a cross country course presents.
0.75pt E/W Quezac De La Roque 25/1 NRNB Ladbrokes (1/4 odds, top 4)
All my pieces are posted on my blog below. Will be trying to get out a few more before the Festival.
http://2012cheltenham.blogspot.com/
EC
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Price already cut to 16/1
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Laddies got u marked EC
 Thought Outlaw Pete had a squeak , although he is potentially 9lb wrong. Any Currency another feasibly weighted but yet to see the cheese wedges ! |
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Great stuff EC-25/1 available nrnb with 345
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Thanks, be wary of place terms pebbles, 365 are only top 3 not top 4 (as are about half the other bookies)
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Good preview.
I think the handicapper has played a massive part this year ruining any chance that Garde Champetre may have had - Uncle Junior is the only horse to ever win a UK XC on his banks debut so will only improve, 5/1 is a stoking each way price.... |
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Excellent read EC.You make a very good case for QDLR and he looks very generously priced.My short list for what its worth would have to include Balthazar king and Sizing Australia
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scotsirish is by far the classiest horse here and I actually think 5/2 is value, will be shorter on the day imo
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EC - I watched a re-run of last years race this morning and think you have a point on QDLR, but, for him to improve his position they have to get that clown of a pilot off his back - but I note that he hasn't ridden the horse in his two XC races around Pau this Winter ?
I didn't research the yard too much but I assume he is the son of the trainer ? But he rode the horse like a scared child IMO - asking the horse to close up then taking a tug, missing a stride at a fence then booting him along to challenge only to snatch him up again, looked like a poor ride to me, a half decent booking and he has place claims at least... |
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QDLR has doubtful on the RP card, so I guess he's not coming over. Does anyone give De Danu a place chance at 66/1? I just rewatched the race at Cheltenham in December, and he was running a pretty big race from miles out of the handicap. He would've finished a lot closer to Scotsirish at Punchestown if he hadn't slipped on landing when leading, and he'll be getting almost an extra stone at Cheltenham. Any thoughts?
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Having a sneaking fancy for Dancing Tornado myself - just a hunch
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Surely Garde will be in the first 3 ? Without Nina on him he would probably won a few more times around Cheltenha, ...12/1 looks a steal to me, you can't beat a bit of class in donkey races ....
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CROSS COUNTRY CHASE comments........
Nick Williams: Maljimar will run again and has won two cross country races in France. He has twice been beaten at the Festival at 1-10 in running so hopefully it will be third time lucky. Philip Hobbs: Balthazar King will run. He hurt himself in the fracas here at the December Meeting but is okay now. Paul Jones asked Philip Hobbs about Balthazar King, and I thought he got quite a positive response to his chances 14-1 EW not the worse bet in this race Noel O’Brien: Scotsirish cross country Davy Russell: Scotsirish wont stay 3m7f in a horse box! Henry De Bromhead reported Sizing Australia is going well and the faster the ground the better for that one Ted Walsh jr very animated with Uncle Junior who he won’t see beaten. He thinks he’ll comfortably dispose of Scotsirish in the Cross Country. Tony Martin: Would love to see his Saddler’s Storm get into the Cross Country. He seemed very sweet on the horse. Willie Mullins - Scots Irish never won over 3m 7f, but has a good chance. Scotsirish (5/2) , Sizing Australia (5) , Uncle Junior (5) , Garde Champetre (9) , Maljimar (12) , Balthazar King (14) , A New Story (16) , Any Currency (20) , Arabella Boy (20) , Double Dizzy (20) , Nedzers Return (20) , Some Target (20) , Another Jewel (25) , Cooldine (25) , Quezac De La Roque (25) , Saddlers Storm (25) , Shakervilz (25) , Wedger Pardy (25) , Askmeroe (33) , Ballyfitz (33) - Others 33 or more |
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Dont need to stay 3m 7f as they go stop statr for first 2 miles or so,weights not matter so much either.
Scotsirish for me. |
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Uncle Junior is the bet of the meeting for me.
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28 confirmed to run (BUT only 16 allowed of the 41 entries)
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dtamutants- I put up De Danu on the NH thread at 100/1. I agree with your comments totally and think he's still value at 66/1.
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Uncle Junior (IRE) 11 11 12
Scotsirish (IRE) 11 11 9 Garde Champetre (FR) 13 11 8 Sizing Australia (IRE) 10 11 1 Halley (FR) 5 11 0 Dancing Tornado (IRE) 11 10 13 Balthazar King (IRE) 8 10 9 A New Story (IRE) 14 10 9 Double Dizzy (GB) 11 10 8 Midnight Haze (GB) 10 10 7 Fortification (USA) 9 10 6 Jacks Island (IRE) 9 10 5 Maljimar (IRE) 12 10 5 Tally Em Up (IRE) 9 10 5 Dream Alliance (GB) 11 10 4 Some Target (IRE) 8 10 1 Wedger Pardy (IRE) 11 10 1 Gone To Lunch (IRE) 12 10 0 Saddlers Storm (IRE) 10 9 12 Ballyfitz (GB) 12 9 11 De Danu (IRE) 9 9 11 Chamirey (FR) 9 9 11 Arabella Boy (IRE) 7 9 10 Heads Onthe Ground (IRE) 15 9 7 Glenstal Abbey (IRE) 8 9 4 Askmeroe (IRE) 9 9 2 Somatic (IRE) 8 9 0 Doctor Pat (IRE) 8 8 13 |
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Presume we are correct that only 16 ot those 28 listed are allowed run ?
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Maljimar e/w for me
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MAX field of 16
GOING Chase and hurdle Good, good to firm in places (watering) Cross country Good to firm, good in places (watered in parts) (GoingStick: chase and hurdle 8.7, cross country 9.9 on Tuesday at 16:00) FORECAST is for a light rain mid week, then dry and mild !!! THE word "FIRM" will not be wanted by most ! |
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4 confrimed jocks
Double Dizzy 11.g Bob Buckler 10st 8lb Andrew Glassonbury Fortification (USA) 9.g Keiran Burke 10st 6lb Johnny Farrelly Jacks Island (IRE) 9.g Joe Kenny, Ireland 10st 5lb Shane Jackson (3) Maljimar (IRE) 12.g Nick Williams 10st 5lb James Reveley |
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they wont see which way scotsirish went...good thing imo
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I'm on Balthazars King. I heard from a friend so not sure if its true that Johnson thought it was his best chance of a winner during the festival at one of the preview evenings.
Hobbs also said the following; “Richard Johnson thought he had absolutely every chance when he was carried off the course and fell going to the last in the cross country race in early December. Unfortunately, a horse trod on his head when he fell and cracked a bone in his cheek. That’s one reason he hasn’t run since but he is better fresh and he doesn’t want soft winter ground either.” |
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Saddlers Storm needs 3 to come out but if he does get in off 128 he must have a major chance. His point to point (narrowly beaten by seabass) and hunter chase (2nd to salsify) is out of the top drawer and he will be one of the few who will love the probable quickish ground on the day. He must have a major chance getting close to two stone from Uncle Junior, Scotsirish and Garde.
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What's the maximum number of runners in the race?
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16
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Like saddlers too and backed him at 25/1 as thought the run behind salsify was good and looks to have good ew chance off his low weight. just worried if he'll get in now - not sure there will be three to come out. If worst comes to worst at least I'll collect once at Tuesday!
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I have always thought that these cross country races would suit Double Dizzy but I just can't get excited about these events
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Sorry EC. Great write up as always
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The only ones i can see who possibly might come out could be Halley, Dancing Tornado, Midnight Haze (if ground too quick), some target (how many will willie run), gone to lunch (kim muir entry as well).I'd say he's 6/4 to get in at this stage but if he does expect him to start no bigger than 12/1 on the day and maybe shorter
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The defending champion will bolt up again sizing australia will have ground to suit ran a good prep race get on 5/1 or in a forecatst with uncle junior cannot have scots irish
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The defending champion will bolt up again sizing australia will have ground to suit ran a good prep race get on 5/1 or in a forecatst with uncle junior cannot have scots irish
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The defending champion will bolt up again sizing australia will have ground to suit ran a good prep race get on 5/1 or in a forecatst with uncle junior cannot have scots irish
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Just wondered what the deal was with Some Target, now been matched at 90's. Assume ground concerns maybe around which could stop it running. Any thoughts on others that might come out of the race? I can see Wedger party is being well supported would be the first to benefit from any withdrawls.
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Scotsirish (10/3) , Uncle Junior (4) , Sizing Australia (9/2) , Garde Champetre (9) , Maljimar (11) , Balthazar King (14) , A New Story (16) , Arabella Boy (20) , Double Dizzy (20) , Some Target (20) , Fortification (25) , Saddlers Storm (25) , Wedger Pardy (25) , Askmeroe (33) , Ballyfitz (33) , Chamirey (33) , Dancing Tornado (33) , Gone To Lunch (33) , Halley (33) , Midnight Haze (33) - Others 33 or more
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Be interested to see which if any are taken out tomorrow. I know lots of people don't like the cross country but I find it an enjoyable spectacle
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