Is 5/1 first leiutenant a truely horrific price?

Very short now indeed - gettin close to the worst value horse of the week

Shocking value. I know he was pricewised, but the gamble is ridiculous for a horse who has disappointed over fences.

I'm pretty sure the price will sort itself out closer to the day. Will drift imo

If Grands Crus and Sir Des Champs don't run, it's likely that there will be a small field and realistically what price do people expect First Lieutenant to be?

If Grands Crus and Sir Des Champs don't run, it's likely that there will be a small field and realistically what price do people expect First Lieutenant to be?

I agree with Masterminded that the prices will sort themselves out nearer the day. It's hard to determine what will happen in a race like the RSA due to horses like Grands Crus and Sir Des Champs having other engagements. The current 5/1 antepost looks a poor price in my opinion as well as if Grands Crus and/or Sir Des Champs run he will be more like an 8/1 chance on the day. But if they don't run, you have horses like Bobs Worth, Invictus, Join Together, Lambro, maybe Call the Police but i don't see much else running. Therefore in my view you couldn't price up First Lieutenant around 12/1 now as there could be a very small field without much strength in depth and being a festival winner likely to face his favoured faster ground for the first time this season i wouldn't want to laying a double figure price antepost on a horse with a strong chance of finishing in the 3 so the place book would get hammered.

I think the horse has a great chance, but agree that the price is a bit skinny at present. I have a bit on at 20/1 which I'm quite pleased about with how the race has panned out.

Assuming that Grand Crus takes his chance in the Gold Cup, this is far from a vintage renewal with the other main contender Bobs Worth, having holes in his profile recently exposed.

As we all know, Festival form is the holy grail when it comes to pricing up races such as these, hence the short odds.

You could've made a similar point about Weapons Amnesty for the race 2 years ago, his form didn't look too hot going in, but all you had to do was cast your mind back 12 months. The cheltenham factor always plays a part and layers are getting cuter about this. He has been a big disappointment to me this season, but I couldn't allow him to go unbacked on the day if the race cute up and he is 8s+.

Hardly DO, Weapons Amnesty had run 2 cracking races in defeat, 2nd beaten a nostril by Pandorama and then a very good 2nd in The Moriarty over  too short a trip.  No comparison at all.

previous course winner , liking for better ground, likely to see an improved performance, he probably will drift though and i'd be interested at about the 8's mark.

Last 48 winners of this have all ran in same calendar year. He hasn't and at 5-1 rates rank bad value.

What does that make Grand Crus then if abiding by those stats?

First Lieutenant 8 to back and zip to lay... SDC correspondingly strong...

Are they planning on switching the pair? There's blue for FL on oddschecker and SDC has drifted right out in Jewson betting on here. Maybe a knock on reaction to the Kauto Star news, with the possibility of Grands Crus running in the Gold Cup?

I think it probably is on the back of Grand Crus and his options, but why would they switch FL to the Jewson... Hope not as I want all three to stay where they are!! We need a Gigginstown mole....

Looks like Willie always intended to run SDC in the RSA

Hardly DO, Weapons Amnesty had run 2 cracking races in defeat, 2nd beaten a nostril by Pandorama and then a very good 2nd in The Moriarty over  too short a trip.  No comparison at all.[/i] thieveslikeus


Oh, I dunno thieves, hindsight is a wonderful thing and it might be in time that FLs beating by Last Installment looks like a decent effort. As I recall, WA ( btw) had a pretty poor start to his chasing career and wasn't really considered a major fancy in spite of his two decent efforts prior to the race, which is why thieves like us were able to snaffle a bit of 12s on the day

Strange one this. There are a fair few of us who took 20/1 just purely because he was never going to be that price on the day, but truth be known I dont fancy him one bit. Words of back problems dont inspire confidence.

But i'd be gobsmacked if they switched to the Jewson, needs 3 miles on Good imo.

Reason for the price was hype surrounding Punchestowns and Long Run not anything wrong in WA's form.  Big LI fan but he hammered FL.  Not like FL was even closing.

This is looking more and more like LI would have pi$$ed this race.
On that basis i am happy to have 20 odd on a horse that got fairly close to him.
Would not take current price though.

trainer said 3m on gd would see FL back to his best, as he does all his best work late on, on a good surface. will need to jump fluently to be in that position, imo.

Sir Des Champs or First Lieutenant...Davy take your pick...or will he have a choice ?

First Lieutenant is better than Sir Des Champs.

I've always said I prefer him in the Jewson.

You don't beat speedsters in the Neptune like Oscars Well, Rock on Ruby and So young without having a bit of toe.

If you put him in the RSA that's just a plodders slog - put him in the Jewson where he can use his speed and he has the stamina to get up the hill strongly.

Btw - haven't got a penny on him in either race

michael olearys comments today about the horse, wasnt very encouraging....

Do you have a link please alleged?

Only caught the end of it, but he said his chase form has been disappointing, and that Grands Crus will be very difficult to beat - nothing new really.

Didn't mention anything about lining up in the Jewson; although I still think that's his race.  He did mention the Thursday being his main day, and he does want a runner in the Jewson though.  He said the only novice chase he probably won't have a runner in is the Arkle because Bog Warrior isn't coming over.

it was on attheraces today mate, what he said that was also of interest is, they will have 2 runners in each novice hurdle

On FL at 20s and think he has an outstanding chance in this. This race is won time and again by a horse of his profile! Can't wait

Apologies

*This race (RSA)

Any way of getting a link for that interview?

Seathestars, in what way is his profile right?  Race is actually won by horses with Last Instalment's profile, he isn't running. A horse that didn't see which way he went, and then missed the main Irish trial altogether, is no substitute.