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Masterminded
02 Mar 12 10:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 3,142 | Blogger: Masterminded's blog
Wincanton Racecourse

PN-Paul Nicholls
JT- Joe Tizzard
PP-Paddy Power Rep
TS- Tanya Stevenson
DP- David Pipe
AP- Alice Plunkett

Supreme
PN- Prospect Wells runs. Ran well early in season just getting beat by Steps To Freedom. Hinterland could run.
DP- Catch Tammy a lot to do, Close House lightly raced probs run in this or Neptune. Neptune more likely.
TS- Irish dominated race. Darlan had a heavy fall. She likes Cinders & Ashes. Feels Darlan would have won the Betfair.
JT- Loves Cinders & Ashes could be a Haydock bog horse but D McCain feels he's not. Could shake them up.
PP- Loads of money for Darlan. Likes Cash & Go who should be running at Leopardstown for a bit of a school round. Scoped badly last time.

Arkle
AP- Sprinter Sacre blown everyone away. Saw him at Nicky Henderson's described him as an absolute beast of a horse.
JT- Can't not be impressed by Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card done nothing wrong glad Bob's Worth beat him at Newbury as he feels CC a 2 miler Colin thought he was a stayer. Had a knock could be a blessing in disguise not running in Game Spirit against SS. Made Oiseau De Nuit look very average in a racecourse gallop. Goes into the race confident. Will bounce him out in front but needs to get it right as doesn't want to play into Al Ferof's hands.
PN-Jokes he has a little plan of running Sanctuaire to go off at a million miles an hour and take on Cue card & SS. Jumping the last in Supreme SS going backwards. Need a horse that stays in Arkle. Has a suspicion Al Ferof wants further but keeps winning over 2 miles & will be a tough race. Thinks SS might not get up the hill and the fact he's been running on flat tracks gives him hope.
TS- Says Sprinter Sacre has stats against him. Peddlers Cross a drifter thinks he goes Jewson. Puts up Menorah thinks he will jump better going faster.
DP- Stats there to be broken and Sprinter Sacre will break them. Only beaten handicappers but I'm So Lucky was one of them who ran in the Champion Chase last year. Sprinter Sacre beat him very well & will get up the hill. Pretty confident Sprinter Sacre will win.
PP- Special money back if SS wins. Latest figure at 3 million payout if he wins. Thinks they have made a mistake. Noel Meade thinks he's the best chaser for years. Plenty of money for Al Ferof.

Champion Hurdle
PN- Few horses coughing. Wasn't confident Zark was at his best before Betfair. Called Darlan a bridle horse had a bit of a pop at him saying Zarkandar would have won anyway. Says he must be some horse to win with a cough and is ok now. Rock On Ruby has a great chance on form with Binocular. Celestial Halo runs but not much of a chance. Brampour runs.
AP- Binocular 20kg lighter best he's been. If he's gna win another Champ hurdle it's now.
JT- Likes Hurricane Fly doesn't think English bunch are up to much. Didn't think the Betfair was a great race. The Fly all day.
TS- Doesn't like odds on shots but thinks H Fly wins. Mentions Celestial Halo before picking Overturn E/W.
DP- Hurricane Fly should win runs on any ground. Also likes Overturn e/w off a nice break. Without H Fly it's an open Champ Hurdle.

Best bet Tuesday

DP- comes out to put up The Package as best bet of Tuesday. In good form likes his mark all signs are good at home.
TS-Maljimar X Country
AP- Sizing Australia X Country
JT- Cinders & Ashes
PN- Zarkandar
PP- Unaccompanied if she runs in the Mares race.

Neptune
AP- Simonsig likely fav. Trainer feels he's a proper champion of the future. He stays but has exceptional speed.
JT- Possibly runs Ohio Gold but ground gone against him but not without an e/w chance.
TS- loves Battonier. Reeled in Broadbackbob looked strong coming up the hill.
DP-Has a couple of entries Boston Bob the horse for him.
PN- doesn't have any runners not spoken to Ruby but feels Boston Bob will take all the beating & best form in the race.
PP- Boston Bob best novice in Ireland. Top class form feels he will run in Neptune now Fingal Bay come out. Thinks he's very very good.

RSA
JT- Cannington Brook got an entry but might go handicap.
DP- After hearing news about Kauto Star will be left in both 5 day entries. Grand Crus done nothing wrong. Gave him an entry in Betfair not worried about taking on older horses. Long way to go & plenty to happen. Not totally sure he will get the 3 m 2. Said everything up in the air has the ability to travel & jump in a Gold Cup. If Kauto's out he's 2nd fav. He seemed very undecided at times but just get the feeling he was edging towards Gold Cup.
TS-Always felt Bob's Worth crying out for Cheltenham.
PN- Join together not far off Grand Crus on ratings. In good order. Proper chaser thought he was slow but kept on improving. Ruby not said who he's riding yet. S Conti goes to Aintree. Didn't feel he stayed at Kempton or Ascot.
PP- A lot of people waiting for NRNB. Bob's Worth 3/3 at Chelt. 4/4 Left handed. First Lieutenant ran well behind Last Installment.

Champion Chase
JT- Sizing Europe fan. Not the strongest Champ chase. Thought he was a spring horse but done well this season.
DP- Im So Lucky & Imsingingtheblues may run for some gd prizemoney. The fav looks a gd thing.
TS- Thinks Sizing Europe will win. Bookies may go out to get him on the day. Master Minded only recent QM Champ to retain crown.
PN- Thinks fav will be hard to beat. Will probs run Kauto Stone doesn't think he stayed at Ascot.
PP- Feels Big Zeb & Sizing Europe beat each other value with Big Zeb.

Coral Cup/Fred Winter
DP- Our Father could run in this or Pertemps. Got to improve but has a big reputation. Big horse will carry weight. Thinks he will stay 3 mile or has the speep for 2 and a half. Mentions Kazlian for the Fred Winter needs to brush up jumping. 130 is ok in his opinion but won 2 poor races. Hopeful.
PN- Nothing in Coral Cup unless King Of The Night runs. Fred Winter Ulck Du Lin def runs didn't want to ruin his mark. Hinterland could run.
JT- Third Intention runs in Coral Cup but not happy with rise in weights. Didn't think it was a gd National Spirit hurdle.

Best bets Wednesday
PP- Sword Of Honour in the Champ Bumper
PN- Harry the Viking in the NH Chase
JT- Royal Guardsman e/w in Champ Bumper
TS- Battonier Neptune
DP- Alfie Spinner in the NH Chase

Jewson
TS- Peddlers Cross turns up will be fav.
PN- S Conti had a few coughs goes to aintree see RSA. Crystal Bonus very fragile/hard to train but very good on his day. Wouldn't want it too quick jumps & travels well.
JT- Michael Flips could run well at a big price
AP- For Non Stop has some very good form.
DP- For Non Stop has a good chance.  Crystal Bonus looked impressive but questions what he beat after Minella Class pulled up. Notus De La Tour & Zaynar entered. NDT also in H'caps. Zaynar just arrived only knows what he's done on track & only entry. Thinks if Peddlers Cross goes here it's the right race for him.

Pertemps
DP- Buena Vista better on good ground not impossible but getting older. Probs last festival. Didn't think he would win last year. Going well at home. Our Father would be his best chance if he runs.
PN- Son Of Vic. Aimed at this race since jumping moderately. Got a chance.

Ryanair
DP- Great Endeavor got to improve. Best fresh in cracking form drier the form the better but has 10 lbs to find. Would go h'cap if up to him but owner wants to run in Ryanair.
PN- Poquelin in good form the drier the ground the better. Big price and has an e/w chance.
PP- Love for Great Endeavour to win. Noble Prince has a great chance. Had a small op. Step up in trip just like in the Jewson.
JT-Riverside Theatre just coming right could be the horse he thought he would be last year. Seemed very keen on him.

World Hurdle
PN- Gave him another run to keep fitness up. In good form. Oscar Whisky very worthy & interesting opponent. Thinks OW will be fine over longer trip but says Big Buck's' strengths are his stamina.
DP- No way to get Big Buck's beat. Only way he gets beat if Ruby doesn't ride him. Dynaste can get in the first 3. Will be great if he can looking forward to RSA with him next year.
TS- BB a 1/7 shot
PP- A lot of ppl looking for other options. Oscar Whisky unlucky not to be beaten this season. 3 miles could bring out more. Big Buck's will win.

Handicaps
DP- Keen on Salut Flo. Still young hopefully at right end of handicap in Byrne Group Plate. Entered in other races.
JT- Would love for Hunt Ball to win something to see what Anthony Knott does.

Best Bets Thursday
PP- Sunnyhillboy Kim Muir
PN- Big Buck's too short Son Of Vic Pertemps
JT- Grand Vision Pertemps
AP- Big Buck's if you like free money
TS- Faasel Kim Muir

Triumph
TS- 5/10 Adonis winners won Triumph. Likes Baby Mix. Balder Succes also a possible at a bigger price.
PN- Thought it was a harsh decision to take race away from Pearl Swan.Thinks he has best form & will improve. Dodging Bullets really interesting outsider lots of improvement. Dildar disappointing.
DP- Kazlian could still run.
PP- At a preview with Phillip Hobbs who said Saddlers Risk his best chance at festival even if Fingal Bay running. Baby Mix beat him giving 3lb.
JT- Paddy Brennan told him about Baby Mix at the start of season. Felt they were training him too hard when he lost at Chelt.

County
PN- Ted Spread running won at Taunton recently. Needs some to come out. Brampour won't run.

Albert Bartlett
PN- Rocky Creek wouldn't want ground too quick. Be a nice chaser next year & won't run if too quick. Will run well.
TS- Fox Appeal 33/1 Emma Lavelles horse.
PP- Mount Benbulben cost a quarter of a mill. 2nd to Boston Bob. Great chance.

Martin Pipe
DP- May run I'msingingtheblues off 145 which will be ideal over 2 and a half around Chelt
PN- Ted Spread, Empire Levant Edgardo Sol possibles.
JT- Feels David Pipe has a better one lower in the weights than Imsingingtheblues.

Grand Annual
JT- Falcon Island & Oiseau De Nuit 2 runners. S Clements to ride ODN to get weight down again.
PN- Toubab not fully tuned up last time and will run well on better ground.

Gold Cup
PP- Long Run much better last time. Jumping better. In The Kauto camp and hopes he can get there. Burton Port will improve. Puts up Midnight Chase D Costello gets a huge tune out of horse,
PN- Kauto better than last year. Chelt will help Long Run but Kauto won 2 Gold Cups. Feels Long Run not improving had a lot of hard races in France as a young horse. Says if Burton Port was trained by anyone else he would have gone past Long Run in the Denman Chase. Long Run one to beat if he jumps well. Won't run Kauto unless he's 100% for the race. To me it seemed it was less likely Kauto would run. Said What A Friend will run well.
JT- Kauto been phenomenal. Weighing room got a bit emotional when Kauto won at Haydock.
DP-Not sure Long Runs been the horse he was last year. Tom Scu rode The Giant Bolster in Denman Chase & feels Grand Crus would have gone very very close. Seemed quite confident Grand Crus would have won that race. Put up Quel Espirit E/W and also joked Grand Crus E/W. Thought Midnight Chase would come 5th.
AP- Midnight Chase E/W
TS- Midnight Chase E/W. Also feels Burton Port could have won lto.

Best Bets Friday
JT- Toubab Grand Annual
PN- Chapoturgeon Foxhunters
PP- Salsify Foxhunters
DP- Monkerty Tunkerty Foxhunters

Bet Of The Week
DP- Grand Crus/Alfie Spinner
PP-Salsify
TS-Fox Appeal
PN- Son Of Vic E/W
JT- Royal Guardsmen E/W
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Report Mr Eboue March 2, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
Fantastic cheers.
Report Masterminded March 2, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
Also worth noting Paul Nicholls said afterwards Empire Levant more likely to run at Aintree.
Report Brian March 2, 2012 1:22 PM GMT
Great write up thanks. Didn't Nicholls put up Empire Levant as bet for County a little while ago, as always can't take what trainers say as 100% as they are always liable to change their mind.

Interesting what Pipe said about Great Endeavour, I also think he's got a tough task in Ryanair.
Report Masterminded March 2, 2012 1:27 PM GMT
Ye I actually fancied Empire Levant for the County but he said he would either go to Martin Pipe or more likely Aintree.
Report Sankara March 2, 2012 2:06 PM GMT
Very generous to write all that up - thanks.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 2, 2012 2:13 PM GMT
Thanks for that masterminded.

not sure what Alice Plunkett adds to the preview.
Report saxon farm March 2, 2012 2:20 PM GMT
Tanks For ThatWink
Report zilzal1 March 2, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
Wonder if PN will sling Prospect Wells at the County??

Probably easier than the Supreme this year to solveLaugh
Report An Ard Ri March 2, 2012 3:12 PM GMT
A review of a preview night in Dublin last Wednesday. Happy Punting!

Cheltenham Preview Night – Westmanstown Sports Centre Dublin –
29th February 2012- Notes

Barry Geraghty – BG
Davy Russell – DR
Colm Murphy – CM
Jessie Harrington – JH
Don McClean – DMC
Paddy Power – PP
Ruby Walsh - RW

Supreme Novices Hurdle

RW – He has no stand out horse in the first, each way at best. Darlan is his preferred ride. Sous Le Cieux needs a longer race.

BG – 2m4f would be better for Simonsig. Darlan was impressive in last gallop.

JH – Steps to Freedom goes straight to Cheltenham. Decided not to do a prep run at Dundalk. The faster the ground, the better. A great bet!

DR – Midnight Game’s form is not good enough. Trifolium has more solid form but better ground may not suit.

PP – Money for Darlan, but fancies Steps to Freedom.

DMC – Steps to Freedom.

Arkle Chase

RW – Al Ferof needs to improve to beat Sprinter Sacre, but has an each way chance. Peddlers Cross is not a good enough jumper and spends too much time in the air.

BG – Sprinter Sacre to win. No worries about the hill.

PP – Sprinter Sacre.

JH – Sprinter Sacre. BG told her he is better than Moscow Flyer.

DR – Sprinter Sacre is hard to beat, but is keen on Peddlers Cross. Bog Warrior does not run.

CM – Sprinter Sacre.

DMC – Sprinter Sacre.





Champion Hurdle

RW – Hurricane Fly will win. Zarkander has not enough pace.

PP – Hurricane Fly will win and Binocular has a good each way chance.

JH – Oscars Well loves good ground and a fast run 2m will suit, will possibly be in the first 3. But Hurricane fly will be hard to beat.

DR – Hurricane Fly will win.

CM - Hurricane Fly will win and Binocular has a good each way chance.

DMC – Hurricane Fly will win.

NIM Novice Hurdle

DMC – Monksland.

PP – Boston Bob and Monksland each way.

RW – Boston Bob prefers better ground. Unsure about Sous Le Cieux. Whatever Willies Mullins runs has a chance.

JH - Simonsig

RSA Chase

RW – Grand Crus is beatable. Sir De Champs has a chance with a run.

BG – Grand Crus is beatable. Bobs Worth is his choice.

PP – Bobs Worth.

DR – First Lieutenant does not have a chance and his form is not good enough and would prefer 2m 5f. He fancies Call the Police with a run.

JH – Grand Crus, but admits he is vulnerable.

CM - Whatever Davy Russell rides.

DMC – First Lieutenant. But was disappointed to hear what DR had to say.








QM Champion Chase

CM – Big Zeb will find it difficult to beat Sizing Europe, but has a chance.

BG – Finnians Rainbow is 90% of the horse he should be, he was a better horse last year. He may come good in this race. Big Zeb will be close to Sizing Europe.

DMC – Either of the top two.

RW – Sizing Europe.

PP – Sizing Europe.

DR – Better ground will suit Big Zeb.

JH – Sizing Europe, but Big Zeb will get close.

Bumper

PP – Moscow Mannon

DR – Do not back New Years Eve as the sire is rubbish. An English horse should win it such as Royal Guardsman. The best Irish horses are not running in the race.

RW – Maybe Village Vic.

JH – Maybe Moscow Mannon.

CM – The New One, trained by Nigel Twisten Davis.

DMC – No opinion. In fact no one had a strong opinion.

World Hurdle

RW – Big Bucks will win. Thousand Stars has an each way chance.

BG – Big Bucks will win.

PP – Big Bucks will win. Oscar Whiskey has a chance.

JH – Big Bucks a certainty.

DR – Betters horses in this year’s race than last year. Carlito Brigante has no chance. Big Bucks to win.

CM – Big Bucks to win. Voler La Volette. Would not explain why she was in the stayers hurdle and not the Mares Hurdle. He reckons 3mmight be best trip.

DMC – Big Bucks.

Triumph Hurdle

PP – Early bets taken on Ranjan. Pearl Swan, Shadow Catcher and Balder Success.

RW – None really stand out. Maybe Ut De Sivola.

JH – Irish form does not stand up. Use a pin to pick the winner.

DR – No bet. Bookies benefit.

BG – Lyvius, if he runs well on Friday in Newbury.

CM – Saddlers Risk

DMC – Shadow Catcher

Ryanair Chase

RW – Rubi Light is vulnerable on good ground. Would love Quel Esprit to run. His choice is Albertas Run.

DR – Rubi Light can have one good run on good ground and this is his chance. He has improved 10lbs since last year. His bet of the meeting is Noble Prince! Has had a wind op since last year.

BG – It is a very open race and is keen on riverside Theatre.

CM – Noble Prince providing the ground is good as well as Somersby.

DMC – If ground is soft then Rubi Light, if ground is good, the Noble Prince.

JH – Noble Prince.

PP – Somersby.

Gold Cup

DR – Long Run to win. But Midnight Chase has a great each way chance.

RW – Kauto Star has a chance but could struggle to beat Long Run over 3m 2f. He would not give up his ride on Kauto Star.

BG – Long Run will improve for his last run. Burton Port has an each way chance.

JH – There are questions overs Long Run’s jumping, but he should win. Burton Port can come third.

PP – Long Run is vulnerable but should win.

DMC – Weird Al is the value of the race.

Willie Mullins Phonecall

Quevega – Gave herself a little bang during schooling. All ok. Loves the fast ground.

Hurricane Fly – Good Form. Did 1m 4f gallop on Tuesday.

Sous Le Cieux – Wants a trip if the ground dries.

Midnight Game – Goes for the Supreme Novices. Needs good ground. Expecting a big run.

Boston Bob – Schooled well. No decision on which race yet. A very special horse.

Ut De Sivola – Galloped well on Tuesday. Not much experience.

Scots Irish – Never won over 3m 7f, but has a good chance.

Sir De Champs – No decision yet. Being a course winner will be in his favour.

Alle Garde – Will float on the ground, would prefer a bit more experience.

Mourad – A great each way bet in the Stayers Hurdle.

Bumper – Best chance is probably Champagne Fever.

Best Bets – Sweet My Lord in the Pertemps and Boston bob wherever he runs.


Paul Nicholls Phonecall

Big Bucks – In great form. Oscar whiskey is the threat. Banker!

Al Ferof – Sprinter Sacre hard to beat.

Zarkander – Should be placed.

Pearl Swan – Fancies him in the Triumph.

Rock on Ruby – has an each way chance in the Champion Hurdle

Crystal Bonus – Keen on him in the Jewson

Harry the Viking – good each way chance in the 4m chase.

Join Together – Has an each way chance in the RSA Chase.

Ulk Du Lin – Has a good rating and will go in the Fred Winter


Other Bets

Paul Flynn was in the audience and he said Moon Dice has a great each way chance in the County Hurdle.

Sir De Champs has a great chance wherever he goes, possibly the Jewson.

Alle Garde in the 4m amateur chase.

JH said Citizenship has an each way chance wherever he goes and Jetson has an each way chance in the Pertemps.
Report Glossy March 3, 2012 7:39 PM GMT
Great stuff guys. Thanks a lot.

Anyone else going to the one at Chelt next Sunday?
Report horse9 March 3, 2012 7:54 PM GMT
I'm booked into the Monday preview at the Royal Oak, Prestbury, cracking night
Report kingdom09 March 4, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
There is a betfair sponsored preview night somewhere in London this week,anyone have any details of where it is on or who is on the panel,was at one last year at the Cafe Royal great night out!
Report Masterminded March 4, 2012 11:06 PM GMT
Guys was at another preview. PFN said Harry Derham on Empire Levant in the boys race. Could this be his festival winner?
Report Ramruma March 5, 2012 10:37 AM GMT
@Masterminded -- Empire Levant -- horse and jockey good enough but I reckon he might not like the undulations and he won't get the trip.

Now, if Harry were legged up in the County Hurdle ...
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