What A Friend - Gold Cup

I think this is his season aim but I don't see why he'd suddenly be good enough to beat Long Run who has put him in his box convincingly the last 2 times. However, you should never be afraid of one horse, and the 16/1 in the w/o market looks a good price.

Yeah the 40/1 looks big alright

Is taking the 16/1 not just admitting that you ARE being afraid of one horse!

I don't think he'll win the race tbh, but thought 40's as an each-way bet looked decetn. Saw the 16's w/o the big too since and is probably the better bet of the two. This is not banker material :-)

Just because you shouldn't be afraid of one horse doesn't mean you aren't!

Ha Ha - that's true

absolutely


no chance

how's he going to beat Burton Port?

I'm on @ 44 - a lovable rogue who should give a very decent run for the money.

If Kauto dosen't make it and Long Run blunders his way out of contention I think he he has every chance.

he's a squiggle

He's been lined up for this and I agree really can't see how he can be in front of Long Run unless LR jumps appalling, but as for the rest I think he has an outstanding chance. I have him already in the with and without markets, and just had some more at 16/1 EW in the W/O. He improved officially 10lb from Newbury to Chelt last year and see no reason why he can't again. Last year 4th, but none of the first 3 to worry about. Why on earth should any who finished behind him last year beat him this year.  That leaves Burton Port as a big danger and Grands Crus if he runs, but I can't have anything else. 16/1 EW is still massive in my book.

he's a total dodgepot and nothing could make me risk money on him

If Kauto fails to make the gig (or does but is well below 100% and gets pulled up like Istabraq on his final start), and, as is quite possible, Long Run blunders his chance away, then to my eyes it is a very open renewal indeed - even another Nortons Coin job maybe?

Yes Burton Port looks next best but the bounce factor is a big put off for me.

yes if the top three all fail then we could have a shock winner but I am not having WAF - he is a thief and a villain and I can't see him sticking his head in front

I'm getting the feeling you don't rate him judo

Judo think they are saying,not backing it to win just e/w at price w-out is half decent imo.

All 40/1, 33/1 now gone in the outright market 25/1 best price.  Still Corals holding 16/1 in the without market and is now NRNB, fabulous bet.  Have had some more EW with them.  Fill yer boots.

I have tyo say that he might be a rogue but at least he is a rogue with some talent and I don't see how you can keep him out of the frame in a without market.

That's my point EO.  I actually don't think Grands Crus will run, but if he does I am not convinced.  Burton Port who I also have backed is a big danger.  Why should anything else finish in front of him in the without market.  Midnight Chase was 8L behind last year and the rest nowhere. I don't fancy Synchronised, Quel Esprit's form now looks short, Diamond Harry, TFR and Captain Chris needs a massive improvement and Medermit is going into the unknown distance wise.  The rest haven't a chance. 16/1 EW NRNB is TOO BIG. Corals only going 25/1 in outright market.

Just because Nicholls gave this horse a good word doesnt distract from the fact he is well exposed and we would be talking v poor Gold Cup for him to win it. There are others less exposed who should pose more of a problem to the favourites. This horse is average.

Eric read my words.  In the without market!!!!!!

eric

Perhaps you could take off that Captain Chris scarve which has clearly fallen over your eyes. The point is that he is worth backing in the without market given that he finished a close up fourth last year just behind two former winners and the other 160 rated horse beaten off comfortably.

horses.

twicer just as likely to spit the dummy and run no race but good luck any that are brave enough to risk money on him

Nicholls knows this one has no chance with Kauto Star and was just giving his owners horse a mention. I wouldnt be backing him in the without market either. If the Gold Cup isnt won by the front two then you are looking for a novice from last year or an un-exposed type not one  as exposed as WAF.

Eric the Novices from last year are rubbish, have you not been watching? Unexposed horses, please name one? Can only think of Medermit at the distance and the distance is the big IF. Grands Crus IF he runs?

Love this Horse,Himself and Tidle Bay are always a joy to watch during their races
Should be renamed What a Fraud and idle bay

Look at winners in recent years it is normally novices at the trip or moving up in trip for their first senior season that become Gold Cup winners not exposed animals like WAF. Novices like Grand Crus struggle always. Outside the fav the former group is where you look for a surprise winner.

eric he's just asked you to name them,and you didnt or couldnt

Eric, do you read what has been written. Please name YOUR novice?  OTS like the new names

I told you the group you name them.

Eric you're a clown.  Good luck with the novice.

The only one i can think of is Quel Esprit eric,Can you name anymore?

matters not a jot what the opposition may be, backing known rogues, villains and twicers is never a long term betting strategy worth considering

Agree OTS but his last win leaves him with loads to find!

What did Nicholls say today about WAF?

Judo you maybe right.  If he were 5/1 that would be a different matter, but 16/1 is well worth the risk IMO.

im not saying he'll win shockster,just giving eric a helping hand mate
Ruby reckons QE would be a good thing if they ran him in the Ryanair.
Didnt hear what Nicholls said about WAF,probably just trying to keep Sir Alex sweet

absolutely worth the risk,people backing him at big odds are hoping for a place more so then winning,i wouldnt be at all surprised to see the old rogues WAF and TD coming from a different parish  Scrapping it out for a place,it would be  quite a site to behold

punting is all risk vs reward shock mate

and I like to know I'm gonna get a run for my money so I don't back rogues and this one has to reverse form with others, so not for me at any price as there is value elsewhere already snaffled

btw i hope they run WAF without Blinkers,He seems to run better without them

OTS, if LR and KS run to form, then they win, but that would mean WAF can run 5th and still collect and 3rd is a bumper pay day.

It's my biggest bet of the meeting.

You'll know youre faith early enough shockster,if he's travelling and jumping okish he'll have a great chance,He's probably one of the best Travellers in the race when he's in the mood,He's a horse that needs a certain type of jockey,if i were Sir Alex id be on the phone to Carberry or timmy murphy,they might be able to kid him around better than Jacob

I agree with you Shock, I've got WAF and Weird Al at 20's and 11's in the without market, if Kauto runs then it's a good chance you're backing first 5 a place. I cant see Weird Al out of the 5 and WAF could easily pick a few off in the last furlong or so.

LR, KS, BP, GC, Medermit

that could be the first 5 easily plus Diamond Harry and some rags

wish you luck

Diamond Harry has to be one of the most over rated beasts to grace a race course,Never won a Grade 1 Chase in umpteen attempts yet is almost always fancied to win one

personally I couldn't have Medermit, Grands Crus hopefully won't run and I'm just not a Diamond Harry fan especially at Cheltenham. But that's just my opinion and I have been wrong more times than i'd like to admit.

oh I agree never liked him myself but his Hennessey form would put him somewhere in the top 5 - if he were to produce it

Judo, WAF might run a stinker and I'll have done my brass, but I doubt there are better 16/1 shots at present.  I would say he should be 6/1 in W/O market.

judo he won that with no weight on his back mate,and a few injuries have blighted his career thus far,admirable horse that falls short of top class,having said that,wouldnt be impossible to see him running into a place,
i think Grands Crus will run in the GC but wont be winning it imo,Cant see him seeing it out,He Barely see's out his races over 3 miles as it is

you can argue it always round and WAF may well get in the top 5 and fair play if he does

just, as I said, not one for me at any price

He has the course, distance and race form in the book. Simple as that. It's all about opinions of course but 16-1 about a rogue running like a rogue and placing without the top two is massive in my eyes.

Good luck to all who got 16/1.  Now 12/1 best price.

I have been backing WAF and Carruthers for this since before xmas. WAF was beaten a nose last term by Kauto. People seem to think that Kauto can run a bigger race that he did last season which,personnally I think is bollox. I have never seen the GC as Kautos
race but he surprised me at how well he ran last year,still mixing it with Denman going to the last.
If he does repeat that run he still aint going to beat Long Run,barring accidents.
He stopped dead over the last last year and I think his really vunerable to all sorts of rags running on up the hill
If you take LR out the race i wouldnt be surprised if anyone of half a dozen won it!

One more thing. In the event of Kauto not making it, would Ruby ride WAF?

in that case i'd expect Ruby to ride Quel Esprit