Cheltenham Festival
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Is he good enough to win the GC?
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Replies: 28
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He's good enough to win a normal Gold Cup, which I suspect we are having again after an era of unusual quality 2007-2010.
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yes, never placed out of 1st 2 over fences
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I really like him and think he's got a really good chance. Him and Weird Al are my my main fancies
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Yes, he's got a super chance.
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backed him straight after Newbury - gotta have a smashing chance
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I like the horse but can't have it winning the GC. Long Run received 10lbs from it at Newbury and still got home relatively comfortably - bear in mind that Burton Port goes well fresh so is unlikely to improve much for that run. At level weights, I can see it running into a place but not threatening to win.
Weird Al has a better chance of winning IMO and is a much more attractive price also. Just feel the horse has a big, classy run in him, waiting to get out after a stop/start career thus far. |
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has anyone considered the possible bounce factor for this horse! good chance if he avoids the dreaded bounce !
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Glossy, I agree with you about Weird Al, he's the one for e/w money. However I'm convinced Burton Port will improve both for the track and extra trip in the GC. And while BP goes well fresh, Long Run certainly had an advantage in race fitness at Newbury.
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yeah he could bounce but equally he could improve plenty for the run (was reported to have a blow in the race), appreciate the extra distance and get a more vigorous ride - we won't know which until the race but he could explode and Long Run has the defending champion stat to overcome
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Judo - good point about the ride - BP would have won at Newbury imo if ridden more positively in to the last. LR took several lengths out of him at that fence.
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yes Stront mate, it was a two horse race til Newbury and both of them had horrible stats to overcome. Now it's a 3 horse race and BP has no horrible stats - he has become a major punt for me
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Not sure that BP is a horse that just goes well fresh, in his novice chase season he ran ultra consistently all through a long season.
I cant wait for him to come up the cheltenham hill over those extra 2 furlongs. |
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Hendersons yard has been lumping on BP from when he was 40/1.
Henderson also said he's working better now,than before he was injured |
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I don't think you can rule him out and there aren't many you can say about that.
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I think there a quite a few you could say that about:
Long Run Kauto Star Burton Port Midnight Chase Weird Al Grand Crus What A Friend Synchronised Not saying that I think they all have anything like an equal chance, but would be folly to rule any of them out IMO. Cases could be made for all, should they get their preferred conditions. |
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In terms of winning the race I think you can. How can you make a logical case which doesn't reply on calamity for WAF to actually win the race or Midnight given what happened last year? Weird Al is a fine tryer who is good enough to run to mid 160's and that isn't enough. Grands Crus we have done to death. That would be a serious surprise if he stays the distance let alone proves good enough and in my view Synchronised hasn't got the class on the likely ground.
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There are only two horses that can improve enough to trouble kauto and long run.
Burton port and quel esprit.weird al may well run a big race,without being good enough. Disaster if any of the rest win |
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Eh? So Weird Al can win by running a big race yet not be good enough? Bizarre.
Why would it be a disaster? Methinks we've been spoiled by this era of Kauto/Denman GC wins. |
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Glossy
I read it that jasey wasn't saying he could win it but run a big race ie likely run into a place. I'm sure he'll correct me if I'm wrong. |
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Yes correct m8
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it was a 2 horse all through the winter, then Burton Port came out and made it a 3 horse race
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Judorick,thats how is see it as well
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Fair enough.
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I backed at 33/1 b4 race with Long Run other week but have laid off. Bounce factor could happen here, thats the worry
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Never bounced before(does the bounce factor even exist)
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depends on the horse and trainer imo
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and he didn't have a hard race really
he could just as equally improve a stone for the run and the extra distance, probably more likely in fact |
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bounce normally happens when they have run above themselves
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