Medermit is going for the Gold Cup according to...

ant more info re this preview OTS

Judo will be pleased. Otherwise, seems something of a waste.

Ruby thinks Rubi Light is another nickname,needs heavy ground to be at his best,Davy Russell thinks Noble prince is a good thing for the Ryanair,Has had his wind done since his last run,Ruby wants Mullins to run Quel Esprit in the Ryanair,thinks it would be a good thing if it ran in the race,But he's going for the GC so doesnt fancy him in the GC

Seems an odd one. No financial interest but had it down as one to go very close in the Ryanair. Can't see staying on in the GC.

I wasn't aware that Choc was on such good terms with Davy Russell. Is he his pen pal or something?

Clearly key information for Choc to be sending over to Ireland without anyone in England getting first call

Supreme Novices.
Willie mullins was on the phone and was very sweet on midnight game,but stressed good ground is essential,and we havent seen the best of him by a long way,the faster the ground the better,
Ruby likes Darlan,

Triumph.
Ruby and Willie both agree Ut De Sivola is way overpriced,They hadnt got him ready in his last race and wanted to get another run into him for experience,They were confident he's a lot better than he showed last time out,

all the panel Hurricane Fly is impossible to beat barring an accident,Ruby reckons Zarkandar is'nt quick enough to win a CH,
Colm Murphy confirmed Voler la Vedette runs in the WH,Davy says Carlito Brigante has no chance,he was quite funny actually lol,

Quevega schooled over hurdles at the curragh at the weekend,worked great but got a slight bang,nothing worrying though,

all the panel are dead against Grands Crus in the RSA,particularly ruby,says he doesnt really see out his races,Ruby also doesnt like peddlers cross,says he doesnt have a good enough cut at his fences.

Willie likes sweet my lord in the pertemps,and also says mikhael will run at the festival,didnt say which race though,Most agreed Long run would win the GC again,as the 3miles plus will suit him and will outstay kauto again,Barry geraghty was quite sweet on Bobs Worth in the RSA,

Ruby liked the bumper at newbury few weeks ago that shutthefrontdoor won,said it rode like a very good race

Charity Bets,

Ruby-Boston bob,and Ted Spread in the County Hurlde.
Davy russell-Noble prince
Colm murphy-Scotsirish and Somersby
Jessie Harrington-Steps to freedom
Barry G-Bobs Worth.

LUFC,who said he sent it over to ireland?all he said was thats what he heard from choc,if u dont believe it then tough shít

50/1 nrnb...

Thanks for the updates OTS - sounds like an above average preview.

Out of interest, did Ruby think Long Run will win the Gold Cup?

Onthesnaff, I am not doubting what you've been told but please spare me such words of wisdom as "..if I don't believe it tough ****.."

reality is more often dictated by the markets, and in this case the cash lined up on the 'back' side for Medermit in the Ryanair is significant.  At this stage of ante post proceedings it suggests in the know money.

is king completely stupid running medermit in gold cup rather  than ryanair??

Ye was very good stront,the only one ruby will be at,not doing any other ones,and went on for a good 3 hours,with some excellent prizes been given away at the end,

Ye Ruby was very honest about his chances on Kauto Star,Just thinks the extra 2 furlongs up that hill will suit LR and reckons he'll be very hard to beat,Ruby kept illuding to Kautos age as do most of us,said he wouldnt swap Kauto but thats really sentimental purposes i suppose

LUFC,ive no idea what the circumstances are,When Davy mentioned it everyone in the room was taken a back by it,so i dont know,but just passing on what Russell said,

Didnt Tom Segal tip him for the Ryanair?would that have anything to do with it?

I was at the same preview and would take russells Medermit comments with a big pinch of salt especially as the market would say he's going for the Ryanair. Mullins one for the handicaps was sweet my lord (pertemps) and nicholls was also on the phone and gave a favourable mention to Ulck du linn in the Fred winter. Mullins gave no indication on where bosons bob will run but will keep him apart from sous les soux. Ruby wouldn't ride anything else in the gold cup but wouldn't back Kauto Star. Donn and Russell very sweet on Noble Prince in the Ryanair if the ground is good.

just reading in that preview all the panel were against grand crus, ruby said,he doesnt see out his races(hes not only1 saying it). i cant understand why people slating grand crus, as i posted on another page here, grand crus ran 4seconds faster than kauto the same going the same distance the same track the same day! kauto ould have only been jumping the last as GC passed winnin line.i fancy GC in the RSA but do agree hes v short. if pipe runs him in the gold cup id be having some intrest eway @ 8s/10s or so. grand crus came up that hill snapping at the hoofs of big bucks in the world hurdle,nothing else has come close to big bucks at chelt.im a fan of grand crus

just reading in that preview all the panel were against grand crus, ruby said,he doesnt see out his races(hes not only1 saying it). i cant understand why people slating grand crus, as i posted on another page here, grand crus ran 4seconds faster than kauto the same going the same distance the same track the same day! kauto ould have only been jumping the last as GC passed winnin line.i fancy GC in the RSA but do agree hes v short. if pipe runs him in the gold cup id be having some intrest eway @ 8s/10s or so. grand crus came up that hill snapping at the hoofs of big bucks in the world hurdle,nothing else has come close to big bucks at chelt.im a fan of grand crus

Comparing race times is a pointless task in National Hunt races over 3m+ (and at any distance in my opinion). Some races are run at a better tilt than others - meaning a faster time. Others are more ponderous and are held up in anticipation of a well contested finish. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Grand Crus/Kauto time stats.

i know hat your saying but grade1 races are always run at high tempo so imo 4 seconds is alot of a difference when ur talkin same course same distance same day.

More than one firm are 50/1 nrnb, so you aren't taking much of a risk to find out.

OnTheSnaff
01 Mar 12 00:11
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12 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 5,230 | Blogger: OnTheSnaff's blog


Quevega schooled over hurdles at the curragh at the weekend,worked great but got a slight bang,nothing worrying though,





lol this cracks me up...have been at the towcester preview the last 2 years and each year they say she worked badly at the curragh...

still keeps the price nice for the punter

Btw OTS, thanks for posting the info anyway. Its is for the reader (i.e like myself) to decipher what the panels are saying...we'll all view the info differently.

Regards Davy Russell, I'd be more interested to hear what Ferdy Murphy has told him than Choc Thornton......but then we're not going to be party to such priveliged info are we.

Thanks OTS, that's more or less what Ruby said about Kauto/Long Run right before the King George.

Ruby - the time difference was 2.8 s between the Feltham and the King George. Almost all of that was in the time taken to get to the tape (NH times are from when the tape goes up no matter where the horses actually are - in the Feltham they were close to and charging at the tape, in the KG they were a long way away and cantering). Kauto carried more weight than Grands Crus and ran 4 horses wide almost the whole way (so about 5 l extra) whereas GC ran on the rail. Overall I agree with Glossy, it's hard to deduce anything meaningful from the times.

As for Grands Crus not seeing out his races - he didn't in the World Hurdle and he didn't appear to in the ,so he may not in the RSA and wouldn't in the Gold Cup imo . Ruby Walsh is probably the best judge of pace around and he was involved at the sharp end in both of those races. I suspect he knows what he's talking about.

alright Harry mate

should be a good semi final for the two boys - really looking forward to that, was surprised Murray stepped up from his first round where he wasn't good

Anyway, I don't mind where Medermit runs as I have laid off some of the stakes so I have very big odds compared to the current prices. I would be surprised if they go the Gold Cup though having avoided the Denman chase.

As I said before I would have thought a programme designed to get him to peak for the Gold Cup 2013 would be prefered ie Ryan Air, Betfair Bowl, Punchestown, Charlie Hall, King George, Aon (Denman), Gold Cup

Grade 1 races are not always run at a high tempo

Often there's smallish fields and/or no pacemaker in it and there's a hell of a lot more tactics in a Graded race than in any handicap

You could just tell by the way Ruby was going on about GC that he doesnt fancy him at all,Same with Barry g,He sounded quite sweet on Bobs Worth,Nicholls also sounded quite keen on Harry the Viking in the 4 Miler

hey judo yes interesting semi...tough one to call pal...but think the great man will take it to the scotsman...but the 3 set format is never easy to predict as a certainty, but would like djoker to win just for the season to come...not the cry boy biggest fan but should be an interesting match moving forward judo

yes gotta go with the joker all the way mate but won't be betting

really enjoying has some proper sport to watch and it is stopping me from looking at horse racing all the time

saying that he aint put away tipsy yet

ye i'm not involved and won't be... need to see more and see how he progresses before getting the gun out again as still getting over the emotional roller coaster that was the aussie open...near death stuff that

was lovely though weren't it? aww man the SF and final were awesome

yes brilliant stuff do not know how he pulled through but was so pleased... gave everything as did muzza and rafa...but thankfully the cream came to the top....epic for the tennis lover...

really looking forward to the slams this year - am hock deep on the great man....

thank god the fore hand was there in the final...still was rusty but he found that little bit extra...reminded of bobs worth sticking his neck out at newbury just what you want on side...love him and the bobs worth

Well maybe this is why Medermit is going the GC Route,Kauto only 50/50 to make Cheltenham

The market is now doing some funny things with merdemit for the Ryanair. Does this mean in fact it is being aimed at the  gold cup? if so, it will be another hit for me antepost, i cant seem to take a trick.

from kings website

Alan has yet to decide between the Ryanair Chase and the Gold Cup for Medermit, and it will be a last-minute decision.
     He said: “He has been placed twice since he won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his reappearance, and I am certain that he will stay three miles, though obviously three and a quarter could be a different ball game.
     “I wake up one morning and think that we should go for gold and then the following morning I think ‘no, the Ryanair is his race’. Ideally, I would leave the decision to the owners, but they want me to make it. Obviously, soft ground would make it easy as then we would definitely go for the Ryanair, but there is no rain about so that is unlikely, and the worry with the Gold Cup is that with such a lot of pace in the race the emphasis is going to be very much on stamina. It’s a toss of the coin, but we will hopefully make the right choice between us.”

Does nobody think on this forum? If Ruby was saying last night things about racing knowing that KS has taken a heavy fall, why should we believe any of them? He knew KS was injured. Wouldn't believe a word he said. Not just Ruby, that lot of em.

Don't rely on previews make your own judgements.

Big gamble going for gold Cup for novice who makes plenty of mistakes and who's stamina is unproven. I would be surprised (not for the first time)

medermit is not a novice, he was a novice last season

Medermit has more chasing experience than 3 of the last 4 winners had beforehand!  11 chases already, compared to 8 for Denman, 9 for IC and 8 for LR.

make that 5 out of last 6, just checked KS had 10 chase starts before his first win War Of Attrition 9.  The one before that Kicking King had 11, same as Medermit.

Not unusual historically as this is usually won by a second season chaser or a lightly raced third season chaser...

Thanks for putting me right Judorick. Having a senior moment there.

no sweat bruv, I've backed it for both races but going in the Gold Cup seems rash without even trying 3 miles

Wherever Medermit finishes expect Captain Chris to be in front of him.

^especially if Captain Chris runs on Thursday and Medermit runs on Friday.

nice one rease

haha yep.

just one thing, the only time medermit and captain chris have raced against each other over a trip longer than 17.5f, medermit won

Medermit wouldnt have made 3rd in the King George.

how do you know that? you can't

Did you actually watch the King George?  There wasn't a third Eric just a 12yo fending off a bad jumper with the others hitting a brick wall from 3 out.

Did you actually know he was under-prepared and nearly missed the race? Also the ground at Cheltenham makes things much more in his favour.

He's underprepared and nearly missing the race now too sadly...

He is preparing well reading the quotes.

eric

The ground at Kempton was good and as I've pointed out on the other thread he didn't run like an undeprepared stayer. They tend to blow up and then run on.

Well maybe you know better than the connections how prepared he was? We can only listen to what we were told, whether you believe it is another thing, I believe it.

whatever, the current Medermit than ran close to Riverside Theatre on unsuitable going will smash Captain Chris at 2 miles 5 + and I hope to be able to get a match bet on if they line up against each other

eric

It isn't a question of his level of preparedness. It is a statement of fact that an underprepared true stayer will tend to blow up in a race, get a second wind and then run on. He didn't run like that.

It's just plain daft aiming Medermit at Gold Cup. It has just been pipped over the distance by a proven Grade One performer. It hasn't ran over 3 miles, let alone 3 miles 2 and a half. If it went for the Ryanir it would be bang there on all known form

Eeternaloptimist I actually think that is exactly what happened. With about a mile to go he looked like he was going to be pulled up, before running on pretty well to take third. Even if you don't think that's what happened, you can't base a horses staying ability on one run when he wasn't ready. Is that how every stayer runs when not fit? I don't think you can just shoehorn Captain Chris into a mould just to suit your own opinion.

Captain Chris jumped as if he had ****in piles lto!!