De Boitron the pullout in the Grand Annual

Agreed , might have just run a tad too well last time , couldnt believe when it didnt jump left .

May or may not be well handicapped, but very, very exposed.

I'm on at 25's. This is my big fancy of the festival. It's running off bottom weight, and has been prepared for another crack at this since 4th last year. Not sure who'll ride it now though with Lee injured.

Villa it was mentioned on twitter that Murphy had booked Lucy Alexander

Interesting. What claim will she get?

she can currently claim 5lbs I think, I may be wrong though

That's what I just looked at. That could be very nice. Stats say she's ridden as low as 9-6 so she'll take the full claim off. The horse would be running free. On decent ground and granted the usual luck in running I can't see this out of the 4 places and give it a great chance of winning.

French Opera will stay in I think because Henderson will want to give a few of his near the top of the handicap a chance and put Bellvano in at the foot, although I can't see him coming up the hill

I also like the jockey booking, I am also on at 25's but with the amount of luck needed and the other potential 'plots' I wouldn't want to be taking 14's atm

Looking at the field I think a lot are pretty exposed. There are the few obvious possibles such as Kid Cassidy and Toubab if they make light of their marks, but I'm not overly worried by them. Astracad is a strong runner but has gone up for winning. Tara Royal did himself no favours winning so easily lto. French Opera should actually run very well off top weight and if they stick a decent claimer on could have a chance.

This is the race where I've had most success over the years with Fota Island (12/1), Andreas (20/1), Oh Crick (8/1) and Pigeon Island (very small amounts at 200 on here and then more at shorter)

De Boitron running off less than 10st I think even 14/1 is decent. It'll go off under 10/1 on the day if its decent ground. I would have topped up at 16/1 earlier but can't afford to risk more whilst ante post.

Forgive me because I'm obviously missing something, but what makes you think a horse that's run in 27 chases is likely to be well enough handicapped to win one of the major festival handicaps?

Personally I like his Cheltenham form, if you ignore his first run last season, he's never gone very well first time up, his Cheltenham form would be 143. Fourth in the race last year off a 2lb higher mark with potentially another 5lbs off with a useful conditional. Eye catching last run when not given the hardest of rides. Then you have the Ferdy Murphy 'plot' factor which I think can be overblown (same with Divers). Like I said earlier at 25's I thought he was value but 14's is very skinny imo.

Mentioned this as his horse for festival cant argue was staying on last year to gd effect.

Mind you the winner won v well and could still repeat judged on his performance when he belted the last at kempton and made

Finnigans rainbow pull out the stops to win that race

Oeiseu de nuit or however it is spelt

Stronitum - Since when did you need to be 'unexposed' to win a grand annual? A horse prepared for the day having shown an aptitude for being a spring horse, a alb lower mark than a cracking race over cd last year, likely to produce his best in a fast run race over 2m - proven track record....what exactly is it that you are looking for?

a think the murphy plot horse is going wrong on the first day .a dnt think de boitrons gd enuf

apolo80 - I'm sorry? Subtitles please... :o)

a personally think going wrong runs last race tues has good chance.divers could run well again and kalahari king ran well in ryanair last year and lee gave it a terrible ride a hope de boitron wins for you guys but a dnt think it willl be in first three

!

fistful, novices and lightly raced second season types have won the majority of renewals - 2010 novice, 2009 novice 2007 7yo lightly raced 2006 lightly raced 2005 novice 2003 novice 2000 novice 1999 handful of chase starts 1998 6yo, that's 9 of the last 13.  Two of the other 4 winners had just 10 and 12 chase starts.  Just leaves Tiger Cry and last year's that were genuinely exposed.

Tipped in todays RP

Fair points thieveslikeus....we'll see on the last race of the last day...

I take on board the exposed point, but I also factor in my view that the majority of his chase runs in the last two years are nothing more than prep runs. Ferdy has done a similar thing this year to last year in sending him out a couple of times earlier in the year with no intention to run a race and then give him one good prep run before the festival where I expected him to finish pretty much where he did (not winning and getting a 6-7lb hike but giving him some race practice).

We know he runs the course well, we know he stays well as has run over further and we know he's carrying no weight and will like the expected ground. In last year's race I think they got the tactics slightly wrong as he was a long way off the pace until later on and would like to see him a bit closer this time around.

Totally agree on the novice point and on looking for an unexposed type that could be absolutely thrown in.....but please name them??? I'm struggling to see who it is and even if there are one or two possibles the price to me is still decent (although is now getting a bit short).

Agreed VillaBoy - A good piece in the weekender also highlights his form in the spring on good/firm ground....Murphy has trained him for his mark protection and he hasn't been at the races during the winters. Also agreed on the lack of obvious young pretenders....and those near the head of the market have some questionable jumping experience and particularly not around cheltenham.

Name them?    There's a whole host of novices entered, will be waiting to see if the weights go up and by how much before committing to a selection from them.  Notus de la Tour and Toubab would be especially interesting if running, but would have to consider any of Kumbeshewar, Astracad, Kid Cassidy, Falcon Island, Eradicate, Slieveardagh, Lancetto, Shot From The Hip, Edgardo Sol, Lucky William and Bellvano if they turned up.   That's  13 novices.  Add in the unexposed Salut Flo and Anquetta and you have a long list of 15 that you'd have to think most likely to contain the winner.

Thieves, I was quite capable of looking up who the novices were, I was more interested to see which of the novices you felt had the chances.

Without going through each one I've already said Bellvano is dodgepot and won't get up the hill in front, and Kid Cassidy I don't think settles that well and runs with the gas out.

I'm not suggesting De Boitron is a certainty (if he was he'd be very short) and clearly taking 13 novices against him I'd expect you to be right, but at 25/1, 16/1 or even 12/1 I think DB is a good e/w bet. As long as he doesn't fall you pretty much know what you're going to get and he's running off a lower mark than last year, with less weight than last year and potentially even less weight if they use the claimer. That to me suggests he'll do better

I'm sure you are villa, but my point in listing them was that there are more than usual this year given the perceived strength of the Arkle.  You have dismissed 2 out of 15 horse I mentioned.  I suspect you are right about Bellvano but I can't rule him out as he is so lightly raced and there may have been other reasons for his Cheltenham disappointments.  I can't rule any of the rest out but I did tell you which two I like the best.

If I had to narrow down to a short list at this stage I'd add Slieveardagh and Kumbeshewar to Toubab and Notus de la Tour.  If I had to back one today I'd probably go with Slieveardagh NRNB as he seems least ground dependant and may even improve again for the better ground.  Worry is he has an entry in the novice handicap too.

Thanks. Read my post back and it sounded a bit flippant so I apologise. What you say is absolutely spot on and my starting point is always to look for a young progressive novice that has run reasonably without going up much for winning. I also like something toward the bottom of the weights. Personally, I quite rate Astracad but not sure how much more improvement he's got to come. He'll certainly finish well if he's in contention. Not keen on Notus as I think the ground is likely to be too quick on the last day (would revise that if there were some juice about).

Kumbeshwar is tough, and although unexposed has shown his hand quite a bit and I think his mark isn't exactly generous for a 5yr old.

Toubab is a possibility but I think he's priced up on the Nicholls factor rather than what he's achieved. Clearly he could be a big improver, but Nicholls hasn't really got a record for plotting his chasers in this and I suspect they've been a little surprised last time rather than planned this all along (might be way off on this though)

Lancetto looks too weak to me.

Shot From The Hip is interesting but the market seems to suggest he won't run??

I like Salut Flo but don't think he'll run in this. Anquetta is too high in the handicap now and not the most resolute imo and whilst Henderson dearly wants to win this race I don't think he plots them particularly well. If he did then he wouldn't have let Tanks For That win earlier in the season, because I'd have been all over him off his old mark.

Lucky William and even Eradicate (on his hurdles form) are possibles. Your suggestion of Slieveardagh is a decent shout if he runs and in all honesty not one I'd looked at in too much detail. Is he likely to run would you say?

Overall, I accept this is a race where the novices can and often do prove handicap blots, but when the race is run at least half of the field are usually out of it by the half way point either not handling the ground or not jumping/travelling. Whether he wins or not I can't see De Boitron falling into that category as they know exactly how to run the track and last year's run will no doubt have revealed a lot to Ferdy about what they need to do differently. Whilst I don't think he's a horse with lots of progression, I do think that he's a horse very capable of winning/placing on this course/trip/likely ground. Someone's clearly backing him because one firm now have him at 8/1

I'm more worried by Kid Cassidy than Astracad.  Big field might help him.   I have no idea is Slieve runs here, he is running at Leopardstown today so you would think that would make him doubtful that's why I said NRNB!

*tomorrow

running off 9st 9lbs with the riders claim, surely guaranteed a place providing he gets around

Was there an interview with Slieveardagh's connections after the race just then? Was fairly impressed with how he kept on at the end, whether he has a high enough cruising speed for the Grand Annual is a different matter though.

Didn't see it but lots of blue on oddschecker so guessing they haven't ruled it out!

Astracad for me. As is often said "Twisters always sneaks in with 1 or 2" and I thought Astracad pushed Al Ferof quite hard at the track before Christmas.

Slieveardagh had a good win today, but just seen these comments

"My horse is better on that ground but I don't know where I'll go from here. He has a preference for going left handed, which doesn't help with Punchestown and Fairyhouse and while he is in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, I doubt he'll go there."

If he's not going to Punchestown or Fairyhouse why wouldn't you give Cheltenham a shot??

Ground is going to be fast come the last race...need a good ground performer...some of the Irish horses have question marks

Thanks for bringing to the top!  Was just looking for this thread to ask the question whether there is any news on Slieveardagh's participation as there seems to have been a little bit of support on here, he'd certainly love the fast ground?