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Paul Nicholls insists the inclusion of complete unknown Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is "not a plot".
While most members of the champion trainer's stable are familiar names, Ulck Du Lin was the only horse in the four-year-old handicap not to have had a hurdle run in Britain or Ireland so far.
The new recruit, owned by Mrs Johnny de la Hey, has had five runs in France and won once over hurdles at Niort and then at Marseille in September as well as scoring over fences at Vichy a fortnight later.
He sits on a handy weight of 10st 5lb and was instantly supported in the betting from 20-1 to 14s with Betfred.
"It's not a plot," said Nicholls.
"He's won two hurdles and a chase and he's a big horse who has worked nicely and went well in a racecourse gallop.
"We thought if we ran him in England and he won he'd go up to 140, so we kept him back for the Fred Winter.
"I do think he'll be a chaser, but he could prove to be well-in (at the weights). He's fit and well, but we'll have to see how he gets on."
While most members of the champion trainer's stable are familiar names, Ulck Du Lin was the only horse in the four-year-old handicap not to have had a hurdle run in Britain or Ireland so far.
The new recruit, owned by Mrs Johnny de la Hey, has had five runs in France and won once over hurdles at Niort and then at Marseille in September as well as scoring over fences at Vichy a fortnight later.
He sits on a handy weight of 10st 5lb and was instantly supported in the betting from 20-1 to 14s with Betfred.
"It's not a plot," said Nicholls.
"He's won two hurdles and a chase and he's a big horse who has worked nicely and went well in a racecourse gallop.
"We thought if we ran him in England and he won he'd go up to 140, so we kept him back for the Fred Winter.
"I do think he'll be a chaser, but he could prove to be well-in (at the weights). He's fit and well, but we'll have to see how he gets on."
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We thought if we ran him in England and he won he'd go up to 140, so we kept him back for the Fred Winter
It might not be above Scooby Doo standards but nontheles surely what he has described there is a plot?
It might not be above Scooby Doo standards but nontheles surely what he has described there is a plot?
There have been numerous examples of horses arriving from France and being given remarkably lenient handicap marks by the guessers employed by the BHA - Mon Parrain anybody? And it's been going on for years - Nacarat was rated 118 for his first run in the UK. But Phil Smith is the Gordon Brown of the handicapping world - he's never wrong and he never changes his stance regardless of the evidence all around him.
Ulck Du Lin looks very much like another blunder, as Smith has accepted the rating he had in France, ignoring the fact that the French don't alter ratings with hindsight however the form of a race works out. In his last win over hurdles, at Marseille, Ulck Du Lin gave weight and an 8 length beating to two fillies that both won their next start.
Ulck Du Lin then won a chase at Lyon, giving a 5 length beating to a horse that subsequently won a 52,000 Euro handicap at Auteil and followed up with a second in 270,000 Euro Grade 1 at the same track. That chase was run over a trip just short of two miles, so he seems to have the pace to cope with two miles round Cheltenham.
My reading of his Franch form suggests he is probably about a stone too low in the handicap here, which is about the norm for the margin of error Smith and his incompetent crew introduce. Go back a year for a prime example - Molotof arrived here having run twice in France and Smith gave him a mark of 126. On debut he finished second to Zarkandar and promptly got raised 17lbs.
Even if this horse doesn't cope with the return to hurdles, the big field and the track in the Fred Winter, I'd be very confident indeed that he'll be rated 145+ by this time next year.
Ulck Du Lin looks very much like another blunder, as Smith has accepted the rating he had in France, ignoring the fact that the French don't alter ratings with hindsight however the form of a race works out. In his last win over hurdles, at Marseille, Ulck Du Lin gave weight and an 8 length beating to two fillies that both won their next start.
Ulck Du Lin then won a chase at Lyon, giving a 5 length beating to a horse that subsequently won a 52,000 Euro handicap at Auteil and followed up with a second in 270,000 Euro Grade 1 at the same track. That chase was run over a trip just short of two miles, so he seems to have the pace to cope with two miles round Cheltenham.
My reading of his Franch form suggests he is probably about a stone too low in the handicap here, which is about the norm for the margin of error Smith and his incompetent crew introduce. Go back a year for a prime example - Molotof arrived here having run twice in France and Smith gave him a mark of 126. On debut he finished second to Zarkandar and promptly got raised 17lbs.
Even if this horse doesn't cope with the return to hurdles, the big field and the track in the Fred Winter, I'd be very confident indeed that he'll be rated 145+ by this time next year.
Trenchant stuff Anorak - lovely!
given your handle on the French form, can I ask your view of Module and his mark? For all the world looked a decent 3m chaser in waiting in that Chelt h'cap in January and would surely go better again over the Coral Cup trip (and being fully tuned as I think they were just having a look with him in Jan) - be interested in your views...
given your handle on the French form, can I ask your view of Module and his mark? For all the world looked a decent 3m chaser in waiting in that Chelt h'cap in January and would surely go better again over the Coral Cup trip (and being fully tuned as I think they were just having a look with him in Jan) - be interested in your views...
This horse may well win and if you are on at 20s then I guess that's fair enough.
But the current price is ridiculous and based purely on who the trainer is and what he has said.
I've had a little look at the form following Anorak's post. Clearly then his best form was in a chase and the horse he beat then had two good races but in hurdles?
Don't follow the French NH racing at all and may be missing on a great opportunity, but this certainly is not one for me
But the current price is ridiculous and based purely on who the trainer is and what he has said.
I've had a little look at the form following Anorak's post. Clearly then his best form was in a chase and the horse he beat then had two good races but in hurdles?
Don't follow the French NH racing at all and may be missing on a great opportunity, but this certainly is not one for me
You always have to get interested if Nicholls is compressing the weights, as it appears will be the case here
Wonder if it's more that he thinks Hinterland has more chance in the FW with Derham claiming 7 than the triumph, than compressing the weights. Ulck Du Linn with Ruby up? I've had a guess on it. For nicholls to save one for this race he must think it's worthwhile, and at 16/1 that's good enough for me.
Given he'd only won a NH novice hurdle at Taunton, you could have said the same about Sanctuaire - i.e. priced on the basis of what the trainer said.
As for the chase/hurdle form point, you're quite correct, but my personal take on French form is that there's much less difference between the two disciplines in France than there is in the UK and to accept that horses show much the same level of form in both. But that's just my view ...
Re Module, I thought his initial mark of 130 was pretty accurate - the form of his debut win in France before Tom George bought him was nothing special and 130 seemed to be based entirely on his last run when he was brought down. Possibly he's one that improved here on better ground?
As for the chase/hurdle form point, you're quite correct, but my personal take on French form is that there's much less difference between the two disciplines in France than there is in the UK and to accept that horses show much the same level of form in both. But that's just my view ...
Re Module, I thought his initial mark of 130 was pretty accurate - the form of his debut win in France before Tom George bought him was nothing special and 130 seemed to be based entirely on his last run when he was brought down. Possibly he's one that improved here on better ground?
Dan,
The owners of Hinterland, are also involved with Pearl Swan and Urbain De Sivola, so they have plenty of interest in the Triumph anyway.
The owners of Hinterland, are also involved with Pearl Swan and Urbain De Sivola, so they have plenty of interest in the Triumph anyway.
The fact that PN has not bothered (or risked) running this one in the UK is interesting enough. In a sense he got away with it with Sanctuaire who with hindsight was let in very lightly after his novice win. The immediate money yesterday following the publishing of the weights suggests someone was pleasantly surprised.
Is it possible to have a plot for a handicap lottery like the Winter??
DD they've known his mark for a while, at least a month ago i saw it on the BHA site.
DD, he had to run Sanctuaire at Taunton as the rule is minimum three runs in GB, Ire or France.
No such need with this year's project.
No such need with this year's project.
Can you really back him in a race like this on UK/Seasonal debut? And what kind of ground was he running on in France .. likely to be fast jumping ground this festival ..
Well Nicholls gave him as his tip when asked at a preview night last night (by phone) for a well handicapped one of his
Thr trouble is, 2/3 of them could be well handicapped in this race. By definition they are nearly all unexposed.
Nearly every horse that has ever run in the FW ''has a stone in hand'' imo. What was the name of the horse which went off 7/2 2 years ago trained by Edward O'grady ? never sighted.
Anyway, if PFN has put him up then fair enough, he'd know a lot more than us and Anorak has already analysied the french form so he does appear to be well handicapped. Gl to those with the big prices.
Anyway, if PFN has put him up then fair enough, he'd know a lot more than us and Anorak has already analysied the french form so he does appear to be well handicapped. Gl to those with the big prices.
The point with Sanctuaire was that even though it was a little race at Taunton, at least it was in UK and you had a chance to see it run and form an opinion. Also PFN could get an opinion of Ruby having ridden him in a race rather than after a gallop and a schooling session and that surely is going to give a more accurate indication of the horse's ability in relation to it's handicap mark.
It would be interesting if he also got an entry for the Imperial Cup
It would be interesting if he also got an entry for the Imperial Cup
Alexander Severus Sintonian? Went off 5-2 and was def sighted as it was absolutely cruising rounding the home turn but found nothing when asked and finished 4th! Take ur point thou!
Kp i think he's talking about a thomas barr owned horse,Dont think it was AS,or maybe im wrong
No it was was Alexander Severus. Had an ''eyecatching'' run at Leoparsdtown or somewhere race prior where he just cruised up and placed so not to blow his mark etc etc.
Alaivan did that in the County Hurlde OTS, looked to be going really well but found nowt.
Was at Alan King's yesterday and they're convinced this is a plot...only danger to Vendor as far as they're concerned, and that's because they don't know how good he is, like the rest of us!
Balgarry at Newbury bolts up on UK debut after another inaccurate guess at French form by the official handicapper. Not that Phil Smith will acknowledge there's even a problem, having by now perfected his ostrich impersonation.
Adds a stone to all irish horses and lets the french wons in lightly - wd phil 
Wouldn't be anything to do with the rich owners who purchase the French ones?
Brown Envelopes talk
Brown Envelopes talk
The pair that finished second and third to Ulck Du Lin in his last hurdle win at Marseille, both run in a 24,000 Euro to the winner handicap hurdle at Enghien this afternoon, March 5th.
They are Une Roque, joint top weight with 70kgs, and Amie Roli, a filly carrying 1kg less. The race is the last on the card, timed at 5:55, which I believe is 4:55 GMT, and it has a maximum field of 16 runners.
In the French system, Une Roque has a rating of 560 and Amie Roli 550. As Ulck Du Lin gave them weight and beat them by 8l and 2.5l, I estimate he should now be rated around 640. But his UK mark is based on his last published French rating of 590.
The horse Ulck Du Lin beat over fences at Lyon is currently rated 735.
They are Une Roque, joint top weight with 70kgs, and Amie Roli, a filly carrying 1kg less. The race is the last on the card, timed at 5:55, which I believe is 4:55 GMT, and it has a maximum field of 16 runners.
In the French system, Une Roque has a rating of 560 and Amie Roli 550. As Ulck Du Lin gave them weight and beat them by 8l and 2.5l, I estimate he should now be rated around 640. But his UK mark is based on his last published French rating of 590.
The horse Ulck Du Lin beat over fences at Lyon is currently rated 735.
Didn't see the race, but surely today's result confirms that 8/1 is an absolutely bonkers price?
i'd imagine you'll get accomodated if you put up a lay @ 9, roobuck 
Didnt see the race and cant find the result,how did they run?
One fell, the other 8th.
I don't lay horses Duncan but the very best of luck to you of you play at that price.
I don't lay horses Duncan but the very best of luck to you of you play at that price.
Cheers roo,Was talking to a mate of mine today and he said Gorgeous Sixty is another one laid out for the Fred Winter,
another one
another one
OTS - most of the horses are now laid out for it now the trainers have got used to the race. Let's face it if Vendor 'works evry bit as well' as his two in the Triumph, Vendor could well have much more in hand than the others.
I've had a very small bet on Asaid e/w for a bit of interest and because I believe he is a little better than he has shown so far. In fact may pitch up for Triumph but interesting that got a third run him to him after Ireland. Decided just to leave the race alone now.
I've had a very small bet on Asaid e/w for a bit of interest and because I believe he is a little better than he has shown so far. In fact may pitch up for Triumph but interesting that got a third run him to him after Ireland. Decided just to leave the race alone now.
roo, if it's an absolutely bonkers price, why arent you laying? do you not like money?!
Sorry Duncan if you failed to understand but I do not lay horses....I back ones that I feel have chance to win and at a price that I feel represents value. Its a shame this is a race that I have no clue about as the attention on this horse and Vendor will make the market.
I would personally be surprised if you cannot get bigger on here closer to the event and as said previously good luck to you if you are playing or have played the horse.
I would personally be surprised if you cannot get bigger on here closer to the event and as said previously good luck to you if you are playing or have played the horse.
This is the horse that apparently galloped with the ( deperately trying to get fit) KS this morning.
Well if it's a bonkers price and you don't know what to take it on with Roobuck, surely laying is the best way because then the rest of the field is running for you?
If it was important to me to be heavily involved in each race then yes probably. As I have said elsewhere I have a very small interest e/w in Asaid and I will leave it at that.
However what I have said is my opinion of the price of the horse in question and I'm so sorry if you feel that it is worthless if I do not lay the beast
However what I have said is my opinion of the price of the horse in question and I'm so sorry if you feel that it is worthless if I do not lay the beast
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/racing/vendor-offers-value-in-festival-ma...
The French import was allotted a rating of 122 after his debut for the stable, at Newbury on New Year's Eve. "He just missed the last, landing very awkwardly, and did well to pick the other horse up," he said. "But for that, I don't think he'd have come off the bridle. I couldn't quite believe the mark the handicapper came up with, so we just thought we'd look after it for Cheltenham. He has gone up to 129 since, just standing in his stable – but I'd be very disappointed if he's not a whole lot better than that."
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/
racing/vendor-offers-value-in-festival-markets-7544596.html
racing/vendor-offers-value-in-festival-markets-7544596.html
cheers roo....no, i've not backed it but i do lay horses. could well drift if the news stories have overstated the 'plot'
With the Festival imminent, King might pardonably confine himself to platitudes about growing tension and diminishing expectation. Instead, even as a pale disc of sun emerged over the hidden Wiltshire downs, King volunteered an unequivocal insight – not so much on the relative merits of his two JCB Triumph Hurdle candidates, Grumeti and Balder Succes, as on the parity of another juvenile in his care.
crikey, i thought Chris McGrath could write
crikey, i thought Chris McGrath could write
Sorry duncan I misunderstood. It is hard to know what will happen with the price, but just think that a couple of Irish horses will have been laid out and will be gambled. Whether it will ever be a lay-back opportunity I wouldn't like to say.
FWIW I genuinely think he has been bought to go chasing and they have thought that as he has this mark, go FW and then chasing next year.
FWIW I genuinely think he has been bought to go chasing and they have thought that as he has this mark, go FW and then chasing next year.
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