Sizing Europe and Big Buck's will be turned over.

It only pays it if they both win.

Head in hands man

finians rainbow and oscar whisky have absolutely no chance!!!!

A very well reasoned analysis

more chance of the queen shaking your hand than these two winning

In which case why the e/w double? £200 win double pays more. Or have you a sneaking suspicion that, despite your obviously extensive research into the two races, both SE & BB might not be the dogs that you would have us believe?

Sizing Europe - What has he done this season apart from confirm his well being, he's a year older, don't forget his only win of last season was the CC, he hasn't put in a real top class performance this season and is vulnerable to an up and coimg one, Finians Rainbow cruised up in the Arkle last year but was out-battled, he's a stronger horse this year and has matured a lot. Chemical Nicky will have him spot on.

Big Buck's - Hasn't faced a horse as good as Oscar Whisky over hurdles, OW has a serious engine and travels very strongly, if they can pounce late they'll beat BB.

I hope ur right, both are in my e/w acca along with long run, and noble prince!

FJC you are a clown, finians rainbow a stronger horse this year? which makes you believe it wont be outbattled the same as last year at cheltenham ? even though it got outbattled by somersby!!! in the victor chandler chase ahaha,

big bucks........need i say anymore, will not get beat

Sizing Europe certainly put up a top class performance in the Tingle Creek and humping Big Zeb in unfavourable ground wasn't bad either.

As for BB, in your scenario you might be right. But if you know that, do you think Ruby Walsh knows that and will let it happen?

To be honest king, you are just as big a clown as the OP for saying the favourites WILL win or that the second favourites have NO chance.   The OP's bet is a perfectly good one, just his language that needs some moderation.

im really not a clown, i'm not the one opposing big bucks!!! i've said on other posts that favourites will be getting beat at cheltenham but it most certainly wont be big bucks and if sizing europe did get beat it would never be by finians rainbow

he was the one who stated that finians is a stronger horse this year and won't be getting outbattled up the cheltenham hill, can you really believe this when it got outbattled by somersby of all horses, and is nowhere near the same class as the champion sizing europe ;)

Strontium, how good was that Tingle Creek, really?

On official ratings he was 13lbs clear of the field off level weights, Wishfull Thinking clearly underpreformed and he beat Kauto Stone and Cornas pretty comprehensively. Those horses are nothing more than decent at best. That race was not CC form.

If he didn't win that race in that style I would have been absolutely shocked. It WAS one of the worst Tingle Creeks in living memory.


He beat an off form Big Zeb in the Tied Cottage, he wasn't off a yard that day. There is absolutely no reason why Sizing Europe should be 1/1.

To put it into perspective. It's like Man Utd playing Liverpool in March. They are priced up at 3/1. Man Utd beat Oldham, Stockport and MK Dons en route to the Liverpool game, bookies react by making Man Utd 1/1. Nuts.

KingG11111

Sizing Europe was also reigned in late up the hill by Somersby in the arkle you clown. Had they gone another 50 yards Somersby would have beaten him. Finians Rainbow will come on a bundle for his Ascot outing. Mark my words.

but he beat somersby unlike finians and has beaten him much further every other time they have raced , fair enough if you think sizing could get beat but to take him on with finians is madness!!!!

FJC - Sizing was oustanding on Tingle Creek day. He charged up the hill and could have won by half the track. I appreciate the bare form wasn't sensational but I choose to make an allowance for the fact it was a very easy win indeed. I don't see any form that Finians Rainbow has which compares favourably with Sizing Europe's this season. I'd also add that SE was very unlikley to have been tip top for the Tied Cottage as de Bromhead doesn't work that way. So we can expect him to improve for fitness, for better ground and perhaps also for the track.

As for Finians, barely beating Al Ferof and Wishfull Thinking is not what I call QMCC form. If you want to look at some bare form, Sizing hammered Wishfull, Finians scraped past him.

me and strontium know the reality, sizing europe is a proper champion, finians...is not , simple

Fair enough Strontium, effectively what Im saying is that Sizing Europe is a false price and Finians Rainbow has the potential to win a CC. At some point these young horses have to make the break through. E.g Master Minded's first QMCC. Come back to me when Finians Rainbow is walking back to the parade ring to a round of applause.

dont be coming back when you've lost your computer on finians

No, they don't have to make the breakthrough if they aren't good enough. Most horses don't win a Champion Chase.

Good luck with your bet, I can see your angle - I also think the each way part looks very solid.

I think Finians Rainbow would improve vast amounts if they actually held him up and gave him a target to run at to keep him interested rather than trying to blast out the front all the time, as he just idles out front as he gets bored. I don't think his stamina is a problem - bred to stay further than 2 miles and would have won a point to point over 3 miles if he didn't fall at the last. The ability and class is there but mentally he is unprofessional which in my opinion has cost him 2 grade 1 races. If they held him up and kept him interested it would make for a more interesting Champion Chase as well.

I'd be keen on FR if he was a young horse.  9 is a bit older than I prefer my progressives at Cheltenham, still there is hardly an alternative and I do have grave doubts about SE producing his best, simply because he is best when fresh and put in a big effort just 38 days ahead of the CC.  I know he ran in the same prep race last year but he didn't put in such a big performance and it was a 45 day gap that year.

BB seems invincible but he is 9 and French bred and by a sire who's progeny do tend to deteriorate very early.  Like Baracouda a few years ago, he is there to be beaten and OW is the obvious one.  Backing Henderson horses going up in trip is usually a bad idea though so not likely to go in very heavily.

Interesting article by Nick Mordin on Sizing Europe if people haven't seen it

DID SIZING EUROPE LEAVE THE CHAMPION CHASE AT PUNCHESTOWN?

Most of the top two mile chasers need to be kept fresh to produce their best form. After their novice season they're usually at their best on their first two completed starts of the season and with breaks of at least five weeks thereafter.

This being so there was always going to be a worry that the winner of this year's Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown might have too hard a race to recover in time for Cheltenham. The worry was increased by the fact that the race was run on very testing ground and a week closer to Cheltenham than usual.

Sure enough the way that the race was run now raises a clear question mark about whether the winner SIZING EUROPE (43) is going to recover in time to score a second successive win in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. He set a searching pace and was pushed right out all the way from the last till five strides before the line. Despite this he took 1.1 seconds to get from the last to the finish line than Portrait King did in the three and a half mile Grand National Trial on the same card.

Clearly Sizing Europe had a hard race. As trainer Henry de Bromhead said "I thought that was a savage performance at the end of a proper gallop."

Adding to the concern is that on his previous start Sizing Europe won the Tingle Creek off such a fast early pace that from the third last they took six seconds longer to reach the finish than they did in the earlier novices chase and 2.4 seconds longer than in the marathon chase over 3m 5f. In other words he's now had two races in a row where he's finished exceptionally tired.

It's possible that Sizing Europe will recover in time to win the Champion Chase for the second year running. But it should be borne in mind that only two of the last twenty horses to attempt a repeat win in the Champion Chase have succeeded. So, given the concern about his freshness, the best price of 5-4 now available about Sizing Europe hardly seems to offer value

If SE does not win the race I doubt if FR will either. He has only ever won one grade 1 and it was a terrible race. I reckon OW is very poor value for the World Hurdle and would expect the likes of Mourad and Dynastie to finish ahead of him. But hey, I have been wrong before - many times.

I am up to my tonsils with SE and BB but FCJ I wish you all the best with your bet anyway.

* FJC

Rumour has it that thousand stars runs in the world hurdle also - the hill could be a crowded place on Thurs afternoon.

Thanks for the good wishes arklearkle. Can't wait for it to start.

Very interesting piece there Extreme Conviction, thanks for that.

Thanks for the good wishes arklearkle. Can't wait for it to start.

Very interesting piece there Extreme Conviction, thanks for that.

Im with fyc on this one. Finians rainbow is a serious horse, you only have to watch it to see it oozes class.
If he hadnt been so free and went for home so early in last seasons arkle im sure he would of won that race.
Nicky said yesterday that hes alot better horse this season. settling into his race better and not beinng so keen.
With current prices the value imo is backing finians rainbow e/w at 5/1.
If he fails to win ur still getting a better price on the place bit than backing sizing europe to win. He wont finish out of first 3.

As for big bucks...no bet in this race for me..no value in backing big bucks and as for rest of the field most could run into a place.

Last time I make this point as it must be boring everyone else by now!

Finian's is a really classy horse and, with a little improvement, which is not only possible but probable, I think he is a great chance to beat Sizing.

However, where I disagree with most people is the way he is ridden. I'd rather see him go for home a long way out and try to put pressure on his field. Am convinced he's have won the Arkle if he'd gone for home when cantering all over everything, instead of coasting and let them get onto his heels.

I think he is a Harchibald-esque horse (another who was unfairly crabbed about his will to win). I don't think he lacks fight, I just think he has a very high cruising speed but not much of a turn of foot. If you coast for too long, you just give something a target. If you kick when you are cruising and others are in trouble, you can steal enough of a lead.

Somersby is being used very unfairly in these comparisons, too. He's a very good horse at Ascot and had a target for the last three-four furlongs in the VC. He very nearly beat Master Minded over course and distance, so there is no disgrace in going down narrowly to him, especially with improvement to come.

hope barry does not look behind him because in about 3 strides time a horse will be passing him

We will see!

FJC don't really know what your talking about...

its fair enough to put up a lay, but your reasoning doesn't make sense...tomdeane's does but yours doesn't...you crab sizings form with somersby, when he was running off the back of a 3 month lay off...

you pick the bones out the tingle creek when if you analysed the race you would see that the williams horse loves the track and the second loved the ground...the 4th home has gone close in top handicap company since...you may not think much to the form but he won by 8 lengths...what do people want...his comeback race or his prep for cheltenham was run at a good gallop and as much as i can see some saying he may bounce after such a performance...others like me think the horse is still improving and de bromhead is certainly no mug as he would of left plenty to work on...

we will see come the day but with big zeb who he wiped the floor with in last years champion looking like age is starting to get the better of him and finians rainbow folding quicker than a cheap argos tent at ascot how and why would you want to oppose him?? finians rainbow is just a year younger and achieved arguably not a lot and once again when put under pressure didn't, wouldn't find...i would say even though somersby is an ascot horse his overall profile is that of a loser in top grade and for me sizing will have to run 6lb below his best and finians improve at least 3lbs to make the race competitive...make what you will but for me sizing will have to run at least 6lbs below his best to get beaten which with the trainer i doubt is likely...he used to be a horse who didn't take his racing but has put that to bed for sure in the last 2 seasons...

before picking the bones out of a duel cheltenham winner who was also cruising in a champion hurdle before going lame at least come up with some decent reasoning...

One of the reasons that few horses tend to win the QMCC back to back, is the tremendous record of Arkle winners in the race. Last years winner doesn't oppose, so can't see how that would be a negative for SE. Beaten Arkle runners have a terrible record, I'm guessing that if you're not good enough to win your Arkle, then having the class in open company is unlikely for all but the biggest improver. So i couldn't have FR.
SE looks pretty much bombproof to me.

tom segal thinks SE is a 1/3 shot.

sais so at a preview.

Sizing is utter class, finians has it all to prove. That said, I don't think Barry gave it the best chance to win at ascot, should have pushed clear IMO instead of looking around every 5 seconds.

it will pay f all as they will both get beat .

BUMP

Come on Oscar Whisky.

Well done.

Big Buck's - Hasn't faced a horse as good as Oscar Whisky over hurdles, OW has a serious engine and travels very strongly, if they can pounce late they'll beat BB.

Bump,oops!

FJC There's no better feeling than when cúnts such as u are proven to be the mug u truly are,
Hope you done you're conkers,