Cheltenham Festival
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scuppered sprinter sacres chances of winning the arkle .........powars offering money back all losing wagers in the arkle if sprinter sacre wins ................last 3 hav got turned over cousin vinny , dunguib and cue card ............can sprinter win with this millstone round hisa neck !
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To be fair they had a choice this year - Sprinter Sacre or The Fly; don't fancy either but id be far more confident taking on Sprinter Sacre!
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same here dwm have oppossed both too short for me already on ,on al ferof and cue card and a smallish bet on menorah, but a decent offer ,and i expect them to do a lot of buissness on this offer ,they are biggst on sprintr at 5/4
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Paddy Power will refund all losing win bets if Sprinter Sacre wins the Arkle (upto £100)
Got to be tempting to stick £100 on on of the the others. Al Ferof or Cue Card for me. Probably Cue Card. |
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Couldn't agree with you more marychain. If Cue Card had a different jockey I'd be all over him. The announced riding tactics worry me a little though. If Sprinter Sacre pulls himself to the front again, I hope Tizzard's got the sense to sit in behind him and not to fight him for the lead early on.
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I reckon Paddy has got this one wrong.
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Possibly Arkle. I've stated in a few threads that I'd be against Sprinter Sacre at the price, but I definitely like him more than all the horses they've opposed in the Supreme over the last few years.
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Paddy Power going to be crying into his potato&leek soup for 12 months when this one goes in!
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@Arklearkle - the thing is with an offer like this, they can't lose.
They get loads of new accounts and increased turnover. And the race itself wont cost them that much. If one of the other horses wins, they will have taken a loads more than normal for it and make a loss. But even if Al Ferof wins, for example, they still wont be doing too bad, cos they will have taken loads for Peddlars Cross, Cue Card, Menorah etc. Also, many people will use their winnings over the festival with Pads instead of elsewhere. If SS wins they haven't taken a thing on it. Yes, they have to refund all steaks on everything else, but they haven't lost anything, only refunded, and again, most people will recycle their funds and it will go back to Pads instead of elsewhere. In short, they will lose out on the race, but not that much in all likelihood, but its just a loss leader, it will make a huge difference in turnover for the festival itself. And, hopefully, it will force other firms to make similar offers (in other races please) |
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Yeah but the Fly will win. Sacre won't.
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Yup. They are just playing the long game.
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@ACStafford. I saw the Tizzard interview on the Morning Line and then saw the story on the RP that came from that interview. In the RP story it made it sound like he was going to try and win it from the front, but in the interview itself it came across more that he was just going to ramp up the pressure in the latter stages.
I don't think he'll try and win it miles from home if someone tries to go off the front too early, just slowly ramp up the pace. |
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I didn't see the Morning Line interview. That eases my mind a little. I do think he's overpriced and can definitely see him fighting out the finish, as long as there isn't too much is used of him early on.
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Yes Mary I agree with you. Will cost them very little if anything at all.
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This ain't a hotpot bumber horse in the carnage of the Supreme. They've won 3 years in a row and are taking a chance on the safest of the tuesday options. Imagine if they did this offer on Fly or Quevega?
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Ideally PP would been hoping for another hyped to the max bumper graduate, but as stated he has went with the safest option for the opening day. The monster is going to hack up tho, better luck next year.
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so from the jist of the offer, can you have say £50 on two different horses in the race?
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do they know something we don,t, bookies rarely get things wrong..
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loads did money back if Spain wins the world cup
its just marketing, and dont forget on the odds he is more likely to lose than win |
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it may be marketing ( clever marketing) but bookies always do things to make profit, the only way they will make a healthy profit is if SS loses by encouraging the followers of AF, PC CC and MENORAH to punt with PP as only one of said horses can win.
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And if SS wins they dont lose anything
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an answer their somewhere .... % WHO WILL HAVE A CENI ON TO NOTHING , some opening accounts? gets a low down on who punts at that level ? who punts in tenners even for free . Something to nothing for paddy ? Improves numbers of accounts , Only applies to singles so it ends after that race ............. Like betting for second place ?
Still stakeholder ,TO BALANCE WORST , IF A BIG BOGEY IN THE RACE ... Big Exercise for not a lot ?WISH HIM WELL .... |
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if SS wins they pay out the SS winners, so still a loss, the only way they win is if SS loses, by taking more bets on the other fancied horses
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They'll lose on the race whatever wins, but they'll win it all back and more (or so they hope) by customers gambling the money they win after the race, due to the amount of deposits they'll get from people so they can take part in the offer.
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Plus if its anything like the last three years, they'll have a much smaller part of their book taken on favourite than everyone else, because people will back other runners to take advantage of the offer.
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it depends how much is staked on each horse and the diferent liabilities on each horse, eg PC wins at 3-1 with 400k of liabilites, they take 200k on SS, 120k on AF, 100k on CC,80k men,50k rest of field that to me says 150k profit or am i wrong???????
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I suspect the book will be more balanced than you imagine marychain, as long as they keep offering best price about the favourite they will take lots of money for it and limiting the offer to £100 per client helps that too. I suspect the favourite they choose to take on is still a winner for them if beaten. They are very shrewd in which favourite they choose to take on, always something who's form level is suspect, by that I mean open to alternative interpretations.
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2 Weeks to go ...some wont make it ...people bet horses who cant win ..owners want to see a horse running at the festival ....?to say they have a runner their it goes on and on .started with 100 plus entered ...? no payback for non runners ,,, I have 4 that wont make it as doublly engaged ....not in the arkle by the way ....
Been their with horses started at 20's only 2 nothings short 2000/1 should have been ????the power may have backed the jolly at best price , and happy to cheer it home ?...4..LINES WITH BACKSTAGE ....not qualified ? in trebs and acc now void ....? A lot of drop outs to come , stand by for more dissappointments ,a stable can be grand one day and full of gloom and doom the next ...TAKE CARE FROM NOW ON IN , as well to wait for nrnb , at this stage now , all the value is GONE ..? |
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It's a stroke of genius. Everyone is talking about Paddy Power and the offer and will do all the way up to the festival. The advertisement & accounts opened will make up for any loss and they will probably get it back by the end of the week if they do. I do believe they will get stung this year because instead of a large field full of unexposed novice hurdlers going off at 100mph it's likely to be a smallish field in the Arkle with a standout horse. Favourites don't have the best record in the Arkle but this horse stands out from previous fav's imo. Would be no bigger than 2/1 in the Champion Chase imo.
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yes would be second fav in the queen mum
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Shrewd operator ..fav is 40% plus in book , all rest make up a balance ? B ookmakers as such are dying on their feet .............all run by accountants and traders ?...ltd liability for sure , even turned upside down ....?
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They are playing the long game. They know, and we know, that most people who win from this offer or get their stakes refunded will simply use the cash in their accounts to bet again, be it on Football (Champions League that week iirc) Golf, or more Horses.
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agree with you sintonian as quoted earlier pady poor is stake holder all the way to the line ?
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and if you are correct few may see the stake money again , silly old game really ?
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