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Extreme Conviction
27 Feb 12 22:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 363 | Blogger: Extreme Conviction's blog
1. Official Rating

All festival handicaps are fiercely competitive and to go close you would expect to have at least 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. For that reason it is not surprising that those rated 150+ have a shocking record, not recording a win for 29 years. In the last 10 years they have also only filled 3 of the 40 places available. If you would prefer to narrow it down even more, the last 12 winners have been all rated 142 or below. However, there have been numerous horses that have gone close off slightly higher marks, so I am happy to discount anything over 150 and not lower.

This spells trouble for one of the market leaders, Quantitativeeasing who is going to have to run off an official mark of 155. To win he is likely to have to be a 165+ horse (borderline Gold Cup class) and I can't envisage this at all. Everything points to his single figure price being a horrible one. Others at the top of the market who are rated above 150 are The Giant Bolster, Time For Rupert, Walkon and it is also likely Seabass will be once reassessed.

2. Class

I'm a big supporter of class being an important factor when deciding the chance of a horse in a race. In the past 10 years, 37 of the 40 places have been filled by horses who have placed in a Class 1 before.

If they haven't been able to place in a Class 1 by now then why should they be able to place in an ultra competitive one? And if they haven't run in one, if the trainer did not feel comfortable running them in a Class A before now (most had been in training 2/3/4 seasons) then why should they be capable of taking an especially fierce one first time out?

Zarrafakt is towards to the top of the market between 14/1 and 16/1 at the moment. Although he looks progressive, he has been in training for 4 years and his trainer, Emma Lavelle, has never chosen to run him above Class 3 company. Last time out he won off 133 (with a 10lb claimer) in a Class 3, which is a million miles away from a festival race off 145. For me he represents horrific value.

Other notable horses to have never placed in a Class A are current favourite Hold On Julio (also couldn't touch ante post as he seems very injury prone) and Mostly Bob who is a top price of 16/1

3. Age

Another point worth considering is Age with horses aged older than 10, placeless from 37 runners since 1997. This is down to the fact that they are too exposed and hold no secrets from the handicapper. At the other end of the scale 6 year olds have a poor record in the race and only have one success to their name since 1973. This is probably down to the fact that they usually find it too much of a stamina test and this stage of their career.

This year the most fancied 6 year olds are Penny Max and Our Mick who both trade around the 20/1 mark. However, Penny Max doesn't quite like streetwise enough for this yet and Our Mick is yet to tackle the trip, so that being the case and 6 year olds record in the race, I am happy to pass them over.

4. Distance

Horses stepping up in trip don't have a great record in the race as such a strong run 3 mile race at the festival isn't the ideal contest to try a horse in at the trip for the first time. All of the last 15 winners had either won at the trip or produced their best RPR at it.

5. Number of runs at the trip

Although all recent winners had proven their worth at the trip, they were all still pretty unexposed at it. All of the last 10 winners, bar Joe's Edge had completed a maximum of 4 chase starts around 3 miles and a maximum of 3 handicap chase starts at the trip.

A good example was last year, when the top four between them had never completed a 3 mile handicap chase. Only Bensalem has competed in one and he fell. Also Bensalem, Carole's Legacy and Fair Along had only completed one 3 mile chase each, with Reve De Sivola never having taken part in one.

Conclusion

1. Rated 150 or below
2. Placed in Class 1
3. Age 7-10
4. Won at trip or produced best RPR at it
5. 4 or less three mile chase completions, with maximum of three in handicaps


Having gone through the field, there are 14 who have ORs already that reach the full criteria:

Master of the Hall, Cappa Bleu, Hector's Choice, Sarando, Tullamore Dew, Pearlysteps, Fruity O'Rooney, Wymott, Lieforrit, On Borrowed Wings, Mic's Delight, Baile Anrai and Alfie Sherrin

There are also another 5 horses who don't have an OR yet that meet the other four criteria:

Fisher Bridge, Becauseicouldn'tsee, Aimigayle, Tullintain and Magnanimity

Master of the Hall - Worried about big field form
Cappa Bleu, Becauseicouldn'tsee - National the main aim
Hector's Choice, Aimigayle - Not sure the thorough test of stamina will suit
Sarando, Wymott - Very disappointing this season
Tullamore Dew, Pearlysteps, Fruity O'Rooney, Magnanimity, On Borrowed Wings - Solid, but likely to be better handicapped horses
Alfie Sherrin, Fisher Bridge - Haven't shown enough for a while


At this point in time, with multiple entries etc. I only want to be taking NRNB and although Tullintain makes a fair bit of appeal the 16/1 available NRNB seems a bit skinny (top price 33/1).

1pt E/W - Lieforrit 20/1 NRNB BOG Bet365

Firstly, there are a few more positives from a stats point of view for him.

He is a novice, who have had a cracking record recently, taking 3 of the the last 8 renewals. This would have arguably been four if Bensalem had stood up two years ago. There have also been other novices go close in recent seasons in the shape of Reve De Sivola and Ogee.

Also what makes him of interest is he has been given a chase mark 10lbs below his hurdle mark. The last three winners (Bensalem, Chief Dan George and Wichita Lineman) were 10, 8 and 14lbs lower than their hurdle marks, showing that they already had potential to be much better than their marks.

Lieforrit has a fantastic record with 7 wins and 4 seconds to his name from just 15 starts (13 completed). After taking two bumpers, he took off over hurdles and rattled off four wins in 2009. Included in these was a listed handicap hurdle at Cheltenham (showing he can handle the track) and a facile win in a Class 2 at Newbury off the mark he runs off here, 138 (showing he can be capable off this mark). After this second win he was raised to 155 and sent off favourite for a Cleeve Hurdle (ahead of horses such as Time For Rupert and Tidal Bay). He was not himself that day and pulled up before an equally disappointing performance in the World Hurdle.

He was subsequently found to be injured and there is a good chance, considering he was very progressive before hand, that he wasn't 100% in either of those runs. Given time, he made his debut over fences in December after 21 months off.

Back with a bang he won a good race defeating the now 138 rated Blenheim brook. Since then he has had to be second best twice, but both those runs (as for his win) were in a small field with a slow pace. This is ANYTHING but what Lieforrit wants and he is much better in a big field with a strong pace, which is exactly what he should get at the festival.

He is unexposed with only 3 chase starts and has been handicapped on three races that wouldn't have suited him before. He has won in big fields before as well as at the course, and before injury intervened he looked to be heading right to the top over hurdles (rated 18lbs higher than he runs off here!).

He is a top price of 25/1 and although this is his only festival entry I would much rather get stuck in at 20/1 NRNB. Other horses I would mention are Hold on Julio and The Package. Hold on Julio has an obvious chance but his price seems a bit skinny at 6/1 and the only stat he fails on is the Class A one, but the race he won last time was as competitive as most Class As are. The Package has unfinished business having come second in this two years back. I was tempted to get involved but you can only get 10/1 NRNB which seems skinny. Also, he seems to get a bit behind and take a lot of rousting and I fear he could be one horse to struggle with the new whip rules. However, he is on a good mark and if he turns up the Pipes are likely to have him 100%.

May be some typos in there that I have to correct at a later date, but thought I'd burn the midnight oil and get it out tonight.

GL EC
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Report solvingthepuzzle March 6, 2012 6:07 PM GMT
Heads up to monksland got on Noland @ 65s looks like will run. Has some good form in the book & hoping for a good show GL.
Report CVByrne March 6, 2012 6:20 PM GMT
Despite what Ruby said I don't want Noland in my book. The 80's on betfair were there for a good few mins before someone took them. He ain't winning imv.
Report monksland March 6, 2012 7:18 PM GMT
I'm not saying he's going to win CVB but backing at high prices and knowing he's going to shorten based on connections can't do any harm. I have layed 15 horses and only backed 3.

My plan is to be green on everything on the day. mainly laying the high weights now as a few wont run and the shape of the race will change with lower weights being backed in.

I have backed Noland and Riguez dancer because connections said it would be targeting the race and they were big prices, nearly certain to contract.


There will be a big shake up tomorrow with the confirmation stage and hopefully I can take advantage of a few over reactions
Report PeddlersCross March 6, 2012 8:27 PM GMT
Does Mossley show up for this? Got a chance on his hurdles form.
Report Meddler March 6, 2012 11:26 PM GMT
Never mind hurdles form, if Join Togethers rating is accurate Mossley looks very well weighted imo.
Report Glossy March 7, 2012 12:41 AM GMT
Billie Magern looks a good e/w bet to me at 33/1 NRNB. Has a very respectable record at Cheltenham and goes off only 1 lb higher than Lie Forrit.

Difficult to argue with his 3rd place behind The Giant Bolster and Poquelin (and finishing ahead of the recent winner Aerial) on Festival Trials Day. Also a more than respectable 5th in the Paddy Power along with a Chelt Grade 2 win in October stands him in good stead.

Twiston-Davies usually comes up with a surprise winner or 2 at the Festival; could this be it?
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 7, 2012 5:42 AM GMT
Billie Magern was entered in the Paddy Power where NTDavies usually puts his better/improving chasers so you have a point Glossy. As the stable has been out of form until recently he may not have shown his best form yet.... I would say his handicap mark was about right rather than lenient though.
Report liam the lips March 7, 2012 12:02 PM GMT
Anyone got the 5 day decs yet ?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 12:04 PM GMT
41 Confirmed of the 84 (BUT ONLY 24 Allowed !)
Report sintonian March 7, 2012 12:15 PM GMT
Evan Williams said just now on ATR he will make a decisions on whether Cappa Bleu runs at the weekend. Sounded to me like they might run tbh, 4 weeks between races this year.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 12:29 PM GMT
Sorted the first 24 (BUT where do the other 17 go ?)
Report sintonian March 7, 2012 12:31 PM GMT
Has this race provided the winner or placed horses of the Grand National in the past or am I mixing it up with something else?

IF Cappa Bleu does run, and run well, he is likely to be put up by the handicapper but obviously wont be for the GN.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 12:52 PM GMT
BARRY Wink
Report Extreme Conviction March 7, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
Lieforrit out. Thank god for NRNB!
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
BJG

Yon miised out on these 41 Whoops
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
BJG

Yon missed out on these 41 Whoops
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
BJG

You missed out on these 41 Whoops
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 1:01 PM GMT
ffs Laugh
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 1:20 PM GMT
Riguez Dancer 8.g Ferdy Murphy 9st 7lb to be riden by Lucy Alexander(5)
Report CVByrne March 7, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
Tullamore Dew fits all the treds, 143 rated and placed at last years festival.
Report Extreme Conviction March 7, 2012 1:54 PM GMT
The only one's that fit the trends mentioned in my preview above are:

Cappa Bleu, Hector's Choice, Tullamore Dew, Baile Anrai, Alfie Sherrin and Magnanimity.

Not particularly taken by any of them to be honest. Tullamore Dew should be thereabouts and is certainly one for the placepot, but struggle to see him being handicapped well enough for win a race of this nature.

It's very dull but I think Hold on Julio is by far the most likely winner if he's over his recent troubles. The only stat he fails on is that he hasn't placed in a Class 1, however, the race he took easily last time could easily have been a Listed Handicap with the top weight being Neptune Collonges off 159.
Report carvillshill March 7, 2012 1:55 PM GMT
Think Billie Magern needs a small field Glossy. Magnanimity on my radar, despite a slightly higher than ideal weight/rating.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
Quantitativeeasing (IRE) 7.g    Nicky Henderson    11st 7lb   
Time For Rupert (IRE) 8.g    Paul Webber    11st 5lb   
Walkon (FR) 7.g                    Alan King    11st 3lb   
Cannington Brook (IRE) 8.g    Colin Tizzard    11st 2lb   
Noland 11.g                    Paul Nicholls    11st 0lb   
Cappa Bleu (IRE) 10.g            Evan Williams    10st 13lb   
Hector's Choice (FR) 8.g    Richard Lee    10st 13lb   
Hold On Julio (IRE) 9.g            Alan King    10st 11lb........Robert Thornton
Mon Mome (FR) 12.g            Venetia Williams10st 11lb   
Consigliere (FR) 9.g            David Pipe    10st 11lb   
Zarrafakt (IRE) 8.g            Emma Lavelle    10st 11lb   
Our Mick 6.g                    Donald McCain    10st 10lb........Jason Maguire
Arbor Supreme (IRE) 10.g    Jonjo O'Neill    10st 10lb   
Magnanimity (IRE) 8.g            D. T. Hughes, Ireland    10st 10lb   
Matuhi 9.g                    David Pipe    10st 10lb   
Tullamore Dew (IRE) 10.g    Nick Gifford    10st 9lb   
Divers (FR) 8.g                    Ferdy Murphy    10st 8lb   
Mossley (IRE) 6.g            Nicky Henderson    10st 8lb   
Tharawaat (IRE) 7.g            Gordon Elliott, Ireland    10st 7lb   
Fruity O'Rooney 9.g            Gary Moore    10st 6lb   
The Package 9.g                    David Pipe    10st 5lb   
Billie Magern 8.g            Nigel Twiston-Davies    10st 5lb   
Shakervilz (FR) 9.g            W. P. Mullins, Ireland    10st 5lb   
Leanne (IRE) 10.m            W. Harney, Ireland    10st 5lb   
Blenheim Brook (IRE) 7.g    Lucinda Russell    10st 4lb   
Mount Oscar (IRE) 13.g            Colin Tizzard    10st 1lb   
Summery Justice (IRE) 8.g    Venetia Williams10st 0lb   
Charingworth (IRE) 9.g            Ferdy Murphy    9st 13lb   
Baile Anrai (IRE) 8.g            Ian Williams    9st 13lb   
Golden Chieftain (IRE) 7.g    Colin Tizzard    9st 12lb   
Major Malarkey (IRE) 9.g    Nigel Twiston-Davies    9st 9lb   
Alfie Sherrin 9.g            Jonjo O'Neill    9st 8lb   
Bottman (IRE) 7.g            Tim Vaughan    9st 7lb   
Riguez Dancer 8.g            Ferdy Murphy    9st 7lb..........Lucy Alexander(5)
Definite Dawn (IRE) 8.g            Tim Vaughan    9st 5lb   
Pentiffic (NZ) 9.g            Venetia Williams9st 4lb   
Marescsou (FR) 7.g            Venetia Williams9st 3lb   
Free World (IRE) 10.g            Warren Greatrex    9st 3lb   
Runshan (IRE) 12.g            David Bridgwater9st 1lb   
Ballyvesey (IRE) 7.g            Peter Bowen    8st 12lb   
Le Burf (FR) 11.g            Giles Smyly    8st 5lb
Report roobuck March 7, 2012 4:00 PM GMT
EC - didn't you say that Fruity O'Rooney also met your trends and he is still in?

Obviously by the process of elimination, he must be the winner  Cool
Report Extreme Conviction March 7, 2012 4:04 PM GMT
Oh yeah - my bad... Bad news... I don't like him either Crazy
Report roobuck March 7, 2012 4:22 PM GMT
That is bad news........for you obviously  Laugh
Report stevo1 March 7, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
Go on Fruity on at 33s nr no bet,with Tullamore and Julia at 8s must get a return? LOl!
Report stevo1 March 7, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
Julio
Report Glossy March 7, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
Why do you say that carvishill? Finished 5/20 in the Paddy Power and a decent 8/24 in the Kim Muir last year, carrying 11-9.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 7, 2012 8:02 PM GMT
Hold On Julio (6) , Quantitativeeasing (7) , The Package (8) , Tullamore Dew (14) , Baile Anrai (16) , Time For Rupert (16) , Zarrafakt (16) , Cappa Bleu (20) , Magnanimity (20) , Our Mick (20) , Walkon (20) , Blenheim Brook (25) , Cannington Brook (25) , Divers (25) , Fruity ORooney (25) , Hectors Choice (25) , Leanne (25) , Mossley (25) , Arbor Supreme (33) , Billie Magern (33)  - Others  33 or more
Report monksland March 7, 2012 8:08 PM GMT
Cant see why people backing riguez dancer on here at 50 when he's 50s NRNB at ladb's. security if he doesn't run and the place price
Report marychain1 March 7, 2012 8:36 PM GMT
Cant find any angle in here. Been looking at Golden Chieftan. I must be desperate.
Report nocturnal March 7, 2012 10:52 PM GMT
Magnanimity as stated meets most of the trends,lightly raced this season hopefully to protect what looks like a workable mark.His RSA form reads well in the context of this race.The pilot is definately a worry should mr Russell be aboard!
Report Glossy March 7, 2012 11:14 PM GMT
Not sure the form of last year's RSA has worked out - looks quite a poor renewal with 2 of the 3 horses finishing ahead of Magnanimity being disappointing (Bostons Angel & Wayward Prince) and the other not seen since (Jessies Dream).

Wouldn't use that race as much of a yardstick IMO.
Report nocturnal March 7, 2012 11:35 PM GMT
Fair point Glossy and its well documented how that race can take its toll on novices.On the plus side his last run was more encouraging,giving way in the home straight in a grade 2.Watching replays of last year he travelled well on likely smilar ground to next week,and I hope that might be the key to him.

Age wise at 8 he may have a little improvement,and not too many miles on the clock.Should he be 20/1?  I think his overall form,and the fact he ran well at last years fetival in a grade1 entitle him to run well.
Report Glossy March 7, 2012 11:46 PM GMT
Hope he runs well for you mate.
Report Rob March 7, 2012 11:53 PM GMT
does anyone know if time for rupert is an intended runner? I think a rating of 153 is generous, he could still be a 165 horse,I'm struggling to pick holes in any of his form and he certainly likes the course
Report JOCI Club March 7, 2012 11:59 PM GMT
Have lost faith in him. Let me down last year, was one of my more sizeable wagers.

Probably romp home now!
Report Rob March 8, 2012 12:02 AM GMT
but is he really 2 stone behind the best in training, last year had a problem but still ran acceptably well
Report judorick March 8, 2012 12:03 AM GMT
nah he's a disappointing, over rated under achiever whose best victory remains a Listed handicap hurdle at Aintree off 138 or something, don't like the horse even if he is theoretically well handicapped
Report magic carpet March 8, 2012 12:16 AM GMT
When u consider he was only 3 1/2 lengths behind Weird Al(now rated 164) who is being talked of by many as a live Gold Cup contender on his seasonal reapperance and has also beat The Giant Bolster on the bridal(whos now rated 160)on his penultimate run then 153 gives him a serious chance.The problem i have with him is that sandwiched in between his two eyecatching runs are two below par efforts albeit both of which were in grade one and grade two company.He has the stat of no winner being rated over 143 in recent times to overcome also but his current price of around 16-1 has a bit of juice in it on the balance IMHO
Report roobuck March 8, 2012 8:54 AM GMT
Personally I think he started the season on too high a mark as it wasn't known at the time that last year has turned out to be a poor one for the staying novices.

I think his current mark reflects his ability, perhaps he has a couple of lbs in hand. Just think in this race there will be a couple with a lot more in hand but as you say perhaps that is balanced by the price. Good luck but for me the price isn't attractive enough
Report carvillshill March 8, 2012 5:31 PM GMT
Glossy:
Billie Magern Better in small fields =10 00220P32517085PP3 1/17
Report carvillshill March 8, 2012 5:33 PM GMT
Sorry cut and paste wonky there:
Better in small fields =10 00220P32517085PP3 1/17
Report carvillshill March 8, 2012 5:35 PM GMT
9 or less  3111F7F11113521 8/15
Report The Scobster March 8, 2012 7:27 PM GMT
Anyone know whats up with Hold On Julio......looks to be drifting with no money up on the lay side ...injured ???
Report buddeliea March 8, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
TFR well handicapped for sure,think hes definitely one to have on my side.
Report thedemps March 8, 2012 9:42 PM GMT
I agree TFR is well handicapped - problem with the festival is there are bound to be 2 or 3 plot horses in there against him.  Anyone know if TFR is running here or GC?
Report zilzal1 March 8, 2012 10:11 PM GMT
Would have thought that TFR will find the going a bit quick if it doesnt start raining soon
Report thedemps March 8, 2012 10:38 PM GMT
Running on the Tuesday might make more sense then?
Report buddeliea March 9, 2012 7:57 AM GMT
yeh,be amazed if he goes GC,and prices on here certainly suggest Tuesday
Report sintonian March 9, 2012 9:37 AM GMT
Cant have TFR at all tbh. He loves Cheltenham but for me did not jump as well as he has done last time out and is probably in the grip of the handicapper.

I would go as far to say he is an underachiever, he has won and placed in a fair share of decent races, but he looks a top rate hadicapper at this stage nothing more. Might even be a Grand National horse next year.
Report sintonian March 9, 2012 9:38 AM GMT
*wouldn't
Report TINnotaTON March 9, 2012 4:45 PM GMT
TIME FOR RUPERT GOING FOR GOLD CUP...
Report buddeliea March 9, 2012 5:55 PM GMT
yeh,just seen that,bit surprised to be honest.
Report sintonian March 9, 2012 6:28 PM GMT
Maybe they feel he ran below par in the Argento ? Eitherway i'd not be a backer , did my dosh on him last time out.
Report buddeliea March 9, 2012 6:39 PM GMT
Backed him at 15 for the GC before the season started.
Quiet possibly my worse antepost betLaugh
Well you have to laugh!!
Report sintonian March 9, 2012 6:42 PM GMT
At least your going to get a run for your money now. I suspect a lot of people will be pleased with this decision actually.
Report buddeliea March 9, 2012 6:45 PM GMT
Dont think that run will last long somehow,been a major disappointment.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 10, 2012 3:48 PM GMT
The ORISH in th JLT....


14 Magnanimity, D T Hughes

16 Leanne, W Harney

20 Tharawaat, Gordon Elliott

24 Shakervilz, W P Mullins
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 10, 2012 3:51 PM GMT
Hold On Julio (13/2) , Quantitativeeasing (7) , The Package (7) , Tullamore Dew (12) , Baile Anrai (16) , Our Mick (16) , Time For Rupert (16) , Zarrafakt (16) , Cappa Bleu (20) , Magnanimity (20) , Mossley (20) , Walkon (20) , Blenheim Brook (25) , Cannington Brook (25) , Divers (25) , Fruity ORooney (25) , Hectors Choice (25) , Leanne (25) , Alfie Sherrin (33) , Arbor Supreme (33)  - Others  33 or more
Report judorick March 10, 2012 4:05 PM GMT
I actually did laugh out load at Budd backing TFR at 15

good on ya for taking it like a sport!
Report buddeliea March 10, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
glad to be of service Judo!
Laugh

thought he was in for a real good season and Kauto was on the way out,how wrong one can be.
Only consolation there is that i took 15 for Kauto after the betfair
win some yer lose some
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2012 11:15 PM GMT
The Package (6) , Quantitativeeasing (13/2) , Hold On Julio (7) , Our Mick (12) , Tullamore Dew (12) , Baile Anrai (16) , Time For Rupert (16) , Zarrafakt (16) , Cappa Bleu (20) , Magnanimity (20) , Mossley (20) , Walkon (20) , Blenheim Brook (25) , Cannington Brook (25) , Divers (25) , Fruity ORooney (25) , Hectors Choice (25) , Leanne (25) , Alfie Sherrin (33) , Arbor Supreme (33)  - Others  33 or more
Report Extreme Conviction March 12, 2012 11:54 AM GMT
This looks a poor renewal and the one I'm very keen on now is Pentiffic.

Only stat he failed on is not having placed in a Class A. However, he has only just come over from Australia and he won a 61k down there.

He was running a big race at Doncaster before falling last time and as he was out of the handicap he was running off 131 there, here he is 5lbs out of the handicap still so runs off 129 (but still 2lbs lower than last time). However, he has R Dunne on him claiming a handy 5 so he only runs off 9st 9lbs.

He is proven at the course (3rd on trials day)and over a slightly shorter trip than last time and given a more conservative ride he should go close.

1pt E/W 33/1 Stan James
Report GoldCupWinner March 12, 2012 1:13 PM GMT
I think I read somewhere on here that last time out fallers have a pretty poor record at the festival. I like Baile Anrai but the fact he fell last time putting me off a little. Also like the favourite. I know he has top weight but his win last time out couldn't be working out any better.
Report JOCI Club March 12, 2012 1:21 PM GMT
Baile Anrai for me, but point taken about the fall, even if it was in a 'tough' Reynoldstown, when still travelling pretty nicely.
Report Tucho March 12, 2012 1:30 PM GMT
Nick Mordin was very impressed with Pentiffic on his website if you're interested EC.

PENTIFFIC (37) was unbeaten in three steeplechases in Australia, including the country's most valuable and prestigious chase, the Grand National at Sandown. But those races are counted as hurdles under UK and Irish rules, so he's qualified to run in novice chases over here.

This fact now becomes rather interesting following Pentiffic's terrific performance in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster where he tipped up at the last with a two length lead when tiring.

Most likely Pentiffic would have been caught. But he would still have clocked a pattern class time. And the mid race move he made was quite remarkable. He quickened to jump the six fences just before the homestraight 1.8 seconds faster than they did in the good two mile chase later on the same card. Seeing that he was running in a three and a quarter mile chase that is quite something.

Pentiffic is an athletic, rather classy looking sort. When he made his big move he instantly had all his rivals under pressure and opened up a lead of a dozen lengths. If he'd been restrained just a little he would have had enough energy left to jump the last cleanly and hold off his rivals.

Pentiffic put up this smart performance off a mark of 131. But he could run off a mark off only 124 and against novices if he makes the cut in the big novices handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

It could be that Pentiffic’s big run was brought about by the fact he was racing on fast ground for the first time in Britain - seeing that in Australia they rarely have going as soft as the Winter ground we race on in Britain and Ireland. It may also be that Pentiffic will do even better around courses as tight as those he was used to back home. It could be he prefers them dead flat like they are in Australia too. In which case he starts to look rather interesting for the novices handicap chase at the Aintree Festival.

In any event Pentiffic will surely be winning something decent soon following this smart run.
Report GoldCupWinner March 12, 2012 4:22 PM GMT
Starting to come around to Tullamore Drew. Placed twice at the festival before and proved he stays the trip last time out. 12lb better off for a finishing 2 lengths behind quanti last year. Looks very solid in a race which doesn't look too strong.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 2:28 PM GMT
Is Extreme Conviction about this year ?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 2:29 PM GMT
Our Mick (13/2), Merry King (8), Fruity ORooney (10), Loch Ba (12), The Package (14), Knockara Beau (16)
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 2:34 PM GMT
STATS fwiw

Only two favourites have won since 1977
Only one winner has carried 11 stone or more for 13 years
No winner rated over 150 in the last 30 years
11yo and older horses are unplaced (0-40) since1997
Horses aged seven to 10 have won the last 14 renewals
11 of the last 13 winners have won over at least 3 miles
10 of the last 13 winners were placed in the first three last time out
11 of the last 13 winners had run no more than 11 times over fences
11 of the last 13 winners had run no more than four times that season
Nine out of the last 12 winners were in the first four in the betting
Nine of the last 13 winners went of at SP’s between 5/1 and 10/1
Six of the last 10 winners won their previous outing
Six of Nicky Henderson’s last 13 runners have won or been placed
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 2:39 PM GMT
    YEAR        FORM        HORSE        A/G        WGT        LTO        TRAINER        JOCKEY        OR        SP   
    2012        3P-PF75        Alfie Sherrin        9g        10-0        24        Jonjo O'Neill        RP Mclernon        128        14-Jan   
    2011        F2F2-52        Bensalem (Ire)        8g        11-Feb        24        Alan King        R Thornton        143        05-Jan   
    2010        701        Chief Dan George (Ire)        10g        10-Oct        20        James Moffatt        P Aspell        142        33-1   
    2009        121        Wichita Lineman (Ire)        8g        10-Sep        94        Jonjo O'Neill        AP McCoy        142        05-Jan   
    2008        P61        An Accordion (Ire)        7g        10-Dec        44        David Pipe        T Scudamore        143        07-Jan   
    2007        Jun-78        Joes Edge (Ire)        10g        10-Jun        114        Ferdy Murphy        DN Russell        130        50-1   
    2006        111        Dun Doire (Ire)        7g        10-Sep        47        AJ Martin        R Walsh        129        07-Jan   
    2005        F43        Kelami (Fr)        7g        10-Feb        24        F Doumen        R Thornton        133        08-Jan   
    2004        U21        Fork Lightning (Ire)        8g        10-May        63        Alan King        R Thornton        136        07-Jan   
    2003        131        Youlneverwalkalone (Ire)        9g        10-Nov        57        C Roche        BJ Geraghty        142        07-Jan   
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 2:41 PM GMT
Choc Thornton has ridden 3 of the last 9 winners (sadly NO Choc this year)
2 of Chocs wins were on Alan King trained horses
JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
8 of the last 10 winners had a prep run between 24 and 63 days beforehand
Winners have been officially rated between 128 and 143
4 of the last 5 winners were rated 142 or 143
Just one winner has carried more than 10-12 to victory in the last decade
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 2:46 PM GMT
Stats dead against OUR MICK
Report sageform March 11, 2013 6:04 PM GMT
Just thrown £2 at Planet of Sound. Has a good record at the meeting but has been disappointing lately.
Report mushroom23 March 11, 2013 6:09 PM GMT
Anyone else fancy Cloudy Too? Could do with 3 or 4 lbs less maybe but looks progressive and should improve for step up in trip.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 6:23 PM GMT
HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 112F8 Quartz De Thaix24 9 11-12 Venetia Williams57 Aidan Coleman 153 140 156
2 17-3P4 Midnight Chase45 t 11 11-11 Neil Mulholland17 Dougie Costello 152 144 163
3 230-53 Planet Of Sound88 t 11 11-9 Philip Hobbs62 Richard Johnson 150 112 155
4 14F11 Cloudy Too24 7 11-5 Sue Smith40 Wayne Hutchinson 146 125 160
5 4-14P The Package59 t 10 11-5 David Pipe63 Timmy Murphy 146 150 157
6 P7P52 Hey Big Spender10 t 10 11-4 Colin Tizzard50 Joe Tizzard 145 142 159
7 1133-U Our Mick45 7 11-4 Donald McCain56 Jason Maguire 145 145 161
8 7-13U3 Nadiya De La Vega45 p 7 11-3 Nicky Henderson53 A P McCoy 144 155 161
9 5-P800 Quantitativeeasing17 8 11-3 Nicky Henderson53 Barry Geraghty 144 141 152
10 0P1344 Knockara Beau34 t 10 11-1 George Charlton Paddy Brennan 142 162 168
11 F81F13 Tour Des Champs24 6 10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies30 Sam Twiston-Davies 139 114 162
12 5-4122 Merry King80 p 6 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill50 Richie McLernon 139 141 163
13 5-0732 Fruity O´Rooney45 p 10 10-12 Gary Moore31 Jamie Moore 139 150 165
14 345P14 Jadanli21 p 11 10-11 Paul John Gilligan A E Lynch 138 149 159
15 614U3 Tenor Nivernais16 p 6 10-11 Venetia Williams57 Robert Dunne3 138 142 159
16 11113P Pete The Feat32 9 10-10 Charlie Longsdon57 Noel Fehily 137 150 167
17 6P-121 Loch Ba55 7 10-10 Mick Channon75 Dominic Elsworth 137 145 161
18 67311 Nuts N Bolts28 t 7 10-8 Lucinda Russell67 Peter Buchanan 135 107 160
19 F-3223 Poole Master26 8 10-7 David Pipe63 Tom Scudamore 134 90 161
20 25151 Monkerty Tunkerty20 10 10-7 Miss Jessica Westwood Will Kennedy 134 143 158
21 P-U234 Tullamore Dew45 t 11 10-6 Nick Gifford83 Tom Cannon3 133 151 160
22 22P32 White Star Line17 9 10-5 D T Hughes68 Bryan Cooper 132 94 156
23 401-39 Summery Justice17 9 10-5 Venetia Williams57 Liam Treadwell 132 120 160
24 1P3633 Golden Chieftain18 tp 8 10-5 Colin Tizzard50 Brendan Powell3 132 147 163
Report Brooksielad March 11, 2013 7:01 PM GMT
id fancy planet of sound but think his ground has gone now  :(
Report thieveslikeus March 11, 2013 7:15 PM GMT
Funny you should say that mushroom23, having gone on about the stats on another thread and why I think low weights are favoured, I then applied my usual non-Cheltenham method of analysis to the race and Cloudy Too comes out joint top with Loch Ba well clear of the rest, with Merry King 3rd top, hmmmmmmm!  Maximum progression points and maximum points for style of victory is a pretty rare combo under my method, maximum 6 points in both for CT...
Report proctor strikes March 11, 2013 7:34 PM GMT
Knockara Beau - running much more consistently. Interesting Paddy has been on last twice and keeps the ride here. Ive backed at 25's.Aside from Merry King not may of the others will go on this bog soft ground.Solid course form (6th Gold Cup and 4th in RSA) and ground finally come right for him. 142 looks a cracking mark.
Report mushroom23 March 11, 2013 8:06 PM GMT
Thanks for that thieveslikeus, I can't resist having a dabble at 20s
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 8:12 PM GMT
RATED less than 143 and aged 7 to 10

10 0P1344....Knockara Beau34 t 10 11-1 George Charlton Paddy Brennan 142 162 168
11 F81F13....Tour Des Champs24 6 10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies30 Sam Twiston-Davies 139 114 162
12 5-4122....Merry King80 p 6 10-12 Jonjo O´Neill50 Richie McLernon 139 141 163
13 5-0732....Fruity O´Rooney45 p 10 10-12 Gary Moore31 Jamie Moore 139 150 165
15 614U3.....Tenor Nivernais16 p 6 10-11 Venetia Williams57 Robert Dunne3 138 142 159
16 11113P....Pete The Feat32 9 10-10 Charlie Longsdon57 Noel Fehily 137 150 167
17 6P-121....Loch Ba55 7 10-10 Mick Channon75 Dominic Elsworth 137 145 161
18 67311.....Nuts N Bolts28 t 7 10-8 Lucinda Russell67 Peter Buchanan 135 107 160
19 F-3223....Poole Master26 8 10-7 David Pipe63 Tom Scudamore 134 90 161
20 25151.....Monkerty Tunkerty20 10 10-7 Miss Jessica Westwood Will Kennedy 134 143 158
22 22P32.....White Star Line17 9 10-5 D T Hughes68 Bryan Cooper 132 94 156
23 401-39....Summery Justice17 9 10-5 Venetia Williams57 Liam Treadwell 132 120 160
24 1P3633....Golden Chieftain18 tp 8 10-5 Colin Tizzard50 Brendan Powell3 132 147 163
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 8:15 PM GMT
RATED less than 143 and aged seven to 10

10 0P1344....Knockara Beau34 t 10 11-1 George Charlton Paddy Brennan 142 162 168
13 5-0732....Fruity O´Rooney45 p 10 10-12 Gary Moore31 Jamie Moore 139 150 165
16 11113P....Pete The Feat32 9 10-10 Charlie Longsdon57 Noel Fehily 137 150 167
17 6P-121....Loch Ba55 7 10-10 Mick Channon75 Dominic Elsworth 137 145 161
18 67311.....Nuts N Bolts28 t 7 10-8 Lucinda Russell67 Peter Buchanan 135 107 160
19 F-3223....Poole Master26 8 10-7 David Pipe63 Tom Scudamore 134 90 161
20 25151.....Monkerty Tunkerty20 10 10-7 Miss Jessica Westwood Will Kennedy 134 143 158
22 22P32.....White Star Line17 9 10-5 D T Hughes68 Bryan Cooper 132 94 156
23 401-39....Summery Justice17 9 10-5 Venetia Williams57 Liam Treadwell 132 120 160
24 1P3633....Golden Chieftain18 tp 8 10-5 Colin Tizzard50 Brendan Powell3 132 147 163
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 8:15 PM GMT
RATED less than 143 and aged seven to 10

10 0P1344....Knockara Beau34 t 10 11-1 George Charlton Paddy Brennan 142 162 168
13 5-0732....Fruity O´Rooney45 p 10 10-12 Gary Moore31 Jamie Moore 139 150 165
16 11113P....Pete The Feat32 9 10-10 Charlie Longsdon57 Noel Fehily 137 150 167
17 6P-121....Loch Ba55 7 10-10 Mick Channon75 Dominic Elsworth 137 145 161
18 67311.....Nuts N Bolts28 t 7 10-8 Lucinda Russell67 Peter Buchanan 135 107 160
19 F-3223....Poole Master26 8 10-7 David Pipe63 Tom Scudamore 134 90 161
20 25151.....Monkerty Tunkerty20 10 10-7 Miss Jessica Westwood Will Kennedy 134 143 158
22 22P32.....White Star Line17 9 10-5 D T Hughes68 Bryan Cooper 132 94 156
23 401-39....Summery Justice17 9 10-5 Venetia Williams57 Liam Treadwell 132 120 160
24 1P3633....Golden Chieftain18 tp 8 10-5 Colin Tizzard50 Brendan Powell3 132 147 163
Report Big Bucks John March 11, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
I'm tossing up between White Star Line and Knockara Beau with maybe a saver on Loch Ba.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan March 11, 2013 9:34 PM GMT
TAKE YOUR PICK of these two

17 6P-121....Loch Ba55 7 10-10 Mick Channon75 Dominic Elsworth 137 145 161 12/1

20 25151.....Monkerty Tunkerty20 10 10-7 Miss Jessica Westwood Will Kennedy 134 143 158 16/1
Report Deerhunter March 11, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
BBJ - also got Knockara Beau & White Star Line on my shortlist. I'll also throw in Hey Big Spender into the mix.

1. Knockara Beau (16-1) 2. White Star Line (14-1) 3. Hey Big Spender (33-1).
Report SirFresh March 11, 2013 10:07 PM GMT
Golden Chieftan e/w for me. Quietly fancy this one.
Report ReaseHeath March 12, 2013 2:53 PM GMT
^ what he said
Report judorick March 12, 2013 3:11 PM GMT
on Loch Ba 2 points ew at 16
Merry King 2 points ew at 12
Monkerty Tunkerty 0.5 point ew at 25
Report thieveslikeus March 12, 2013 3:15 PM GMT
ended up on Loch Ba and Cloudy Too
Report SirFresh March 12, 2013 3:27 PM GMT
Cool
Report ReaseHeath March 12, 2013 3:28 PM GMT
Wink smart jockey booking
Report leathal weapon March 12, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
great shout fresh well done
Report unclepuncle March 12, 2013 3:31 PM GMT
Nice call SirFresh.Grin
Report Oasisdreamer March 5, 2014 8:56 PM GMT
ttt  - 10/1 the field. A cracking race to get stuck into.
Report bestmate March 6, 2014 10:09 PM GMT
who is doing the hard work to apply these stats?
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 30, 2014 9:18 PM GMT
VALSEUR LIDO - the 6yo stat maybe his only question mark in March.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan November 30, 2014 9:28 PM GMT
Mullins commented: "He jumped well and for his second time over fences was very clever. He keeps doing more than I think he's able to do.
"He's much more comfortable over fences. I'd be thinking of the RSA, or the JLT, at the moment. I wouldn't be looking to go back in trip with him at this stage."

Reading between the lines means he has something better in the yard for this race so !
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