Worst Value Of The Festival?

Steps To Freedom for me!

Sprinter Sacre. 5-4? Not for me. LAY LAY LAY

Everything Pricewise has selected, Simonsig (for both races but more so Supreme), First Lieutenant (much too short on what he has actually achieved over fences), Sivola De Sivola (big doubt about even getting a run), Champagne Fever (absolutely no chance) and Moscow Mannon (form completely overrated and should be twice the price).

Vendor in the Fred Winter.... I'll be a suck egg mule if that wins !!!!!

Cheeseburger and Chips.
£9.00 from the van at the top of the Guinness Village.

Sorry lads, serious thread, but, unlike the cardboard burger, I couldn't resist it.
FWIW, I agree with King Selassie.
Vendor has tumbled in price purely on King's apparent excitement at the mark of 129, but we know this is a race with more plots than Arthur's allotment.
Just look back a year at Arthur Moore and What a Charm, says it all.
They'll be a few more in just as well-in on what they've shown so far with connections who have kept their excitement covered up.

all short priced favs ie
Hurricane Fly
Quevega
Big Bucks
Sprinter Sacre
Sizing Europe
are poor value they all look  past the post bound to be 1 or 2 beaten though

lucky heather from the gypsy at the main gate

The "Shuttle Bus"   that actually takes longer than a 3 legged donkey ..

Midnight Chase @ 12 for the Gold Cup.

First Leiutenant is a good call - remarkable price for what it's achieved.

I'm not sure why people would worry about a horse not getting a run as you should get your money back if it's ballotted out.

Just to confirm this if the horse is left in at the final declaration stage and doesn't get a run stake is returned?

Yes, on here or with any decent bookie, though one or two have been known to play silly beggars from time to time.

peddlers cross - based on hurdle rating and the apparent 'problems' he had after kempton.

first leiutenant - price has to be simply because he won at the festival last year. two main rivals blundered the last. form over fences makes him a 25/1 shot.

sizing europe - just don't think he should be as short. have a feeling his form from this year might be a little dodgy and his huge run lto might take some getting over.

cristal bonus - visually impressive but dont think his form entitles him to be so short for the jewson.

good  9 horses with no  chance  gonna double them all up now  ,and have a cracking  chelts  .

Out of 100% what percentage chance has Sivola de Sivola of getting a run in the Pertemps Final and how many horses need to be pulled out for him to get a run?  Thanks in advance for helpful replies.

not one I'M INVOLVED WITH BUT  looks to be firming up in market as IF  some people have an idea as only coming to fore in betting arena  NOW ?,....PLAN TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS  THIS WEEK  .

he was top of the market for the pertemps about 5mins after his last run grumpy. i was keeping an eye on it.

Joe - there are 39 ahead of him with British ORs. We don't know about the Irish/French yet, but using RPRs as a rough guide there would be another 11 or so. There will be a maximum 24 runners. So roughly 26 above him would need to come out for SdS to get a run. (We'll be sure about the numbers when the weights come out on Wednesday).

Thanks strontium. unlikely to get a run then one would imagine.

I'm not sure Joe - quite a few of those above him are bound to be engaed in the Coral Cup and/or other races as well as the Pertemps.

must have been a lot bigger than   7's  it is now ,  as looked back it was pretty wide betting so wide a race , I left  the  race with nothing against It  .  G oing back 6 weeks ?

Joe - you might be right - number 32 in the weights was the lowest to get in in 2011.

Was 12s with billy hills and 9s with both paddies and bet36five. the rest had no prices for it. this was 5 or 10 mins after his last run Grumpyjim.

Syncronised placed in the gold cup. This horse to me has the same profile as Kempes. Beat a dreadful field in Ireland and completely ground dependent. This horse has the pace of a canal boat. I don't think see him finishing in the top 5 let alone the top 3 with or without Grand Crus running.

sivola  and our father  7's each the two  12's bar  only this weekend for me ? one of only a few races no interest in ......certainly an interest in the horse now o .k. ?about 20 plus at  12's and over  ,so kept passing race  by  ...............?

SS at 5/4 ain't great...but finian's rainbow 5/1, do me a favour!!

Rubi Light 5/1 is a shocking price even though there are loads of fans on here especially with the going likely to be quick by the Thursday

Grands Crus is terrible value, the form has taken a battering and the Feltham is a total bok for the RSA - lay

Long Run and Kauto Star both have ridiculous trends to overcome

Got to love these threads - so many differences of opinion.

I don't think 5-1 Finian's is a bad price all things considered. Has one horse to beat who has been beating the same old horses all year long and one 11-year-old who ran the worst race of the last two seasons just two weeks ago. Might only be 6 or 7 runners, so I think he is one of the best each-way bets of the meeting!

As for bad value, I'd be tempted to say an old friend Oscar Whisky at around 7/2 and 100/30. No proff that he stays three miles, takes on arguably the most solid Festival favourite in years, and there are five or six other runners within a few pounds of him on official ratings.

Great shout Finians Rainbow...i'll throw in Somersby for the Ryanair too, wouldn't be backing that at double the price! Midnight Chase is another good one, and reminds me to include Synchronised into the mix!

Noble Prince another one I'd want double the price for. I can make a case for at least 5 horses I think should be shorter than it in that race.

Agreed about that one ^. He'll have his conditions for the first time all year but he just doesn't look good enough to me.

Agreed too on Noble Prince; feel the same way about a lot of them in the Ryanair - Rubi Light I wouldn't be rushing to back either!

On what he has achieved Sprinter Sacre perhaps looks too short. However, anyone connected to the horse pretty much all give the impression he is an absolute monster. I feel they are right.

I agree on Synchronised, if that slow boat can trouble the judge I will certainly be scratching my head.

Bobs Worth 5/1 RSA.

Comforably beaten last two runs by two of his main rivals. Doesn't jump fences particularly well and could be too far back by the time his stamina starts to kick in.

Grand Crus and Bobsworth in the RSA.

@ well chief. I was starting to think along the same lines. Think he has been well held on both occasions. I would want to see Grand Crus confirmed though as it might be that he will be better suited by Cheltenham.

Budd - Grand Crus might well be bad value for the RSA, but he absolutely stinks for the Gold Cup @ 10/1!

indeed mate.
They still thinking about that?

Going back to the Arkle, how can PC be ahead of AF in the betting? SS thumped PC at Kempton and, unless it was ultra lame, which it did not look, has little chance in reversing the form. AF however has won a G1 nov ch, beating a future G1 nov ch, then running a good 3rd to older established 2 milers.

Yes but "he wasn't beaten far by the Fly last year"

This gets trotted out from all angles, probably the same angles that rubbish SS's CHASE form.

In the same vein that "he wasn't beaten far by the Fly last year" is trotted out by those who support Peddlers, those who are against him put far too much credence in his beating at Kempton by Sprinter imo. He wasn't right and absolutely clouted the first, there's little more that could have gone wrong for him, not to mention the track unlikely to be playing to his strengths. Anyway this has and will go round and round til the day so I don't mean to start it up here.

I should clarify though that I do think Peddlers is too short.

As he is shortening all the time would add Darlan for several reasons:-

(1)He is returning from a very nasty fall.
(2)He is short because of what might have been - seemingly people think he would have quickened off the bridle but he could just as easily have plugged on at one pace and finished unplaced.
(3)Albertas Run apart, I wouldn't view AP as a positive booking on anything at the Festival.
(4)I have looked pretty closely at the offspring of Milan and although he has had plenty of winners after a slow start there is a definite shortage of quality. We are effectively looking at the fourth crop and so far the best look likely be no better than reasonable handicappers. Darlan might be an exception but I wouldn't bank on it.

^ And (5) His one fairly disappointing run came at Cheltenham as opposed to flatter tracks that seem to really suit.

Grands Crus in either race, Sprinter Sacre (I accept he could be top class, but I'm willing to let the Arkle prove that to me first at his price), Peddlers Cross is even worse value, and Bobs Worth. All of those look like lays to me.

ffs diff, Ive just jumped on with 365 at 7s nrnb.
My reasoning is: It was a fairly fast run race at Newbury. Faster than Monbazon did anyway. The Supreme will be the same. He was only getting 5lbs from Zarkandar and was giving weight away to a lot of good handicappers like Get Me Out Of Here (Schweppes winner and Supreme runner up)Raya Star (Ladbroke winner lto)Sire De Grugy won nto off 141, Third Intention (impressive winner yesterday of the National Spirit. To name but a few. The Betfair looked a fair race, and to my eyes, there aint a 2ml nov hurdler this season with this kind of form.
I do agree about his fall though, it looked a sore one. I hope he has recovered enough, hence the nrnb.

seems there is a whole lot of bad value to be had

re darlan lads, read a preview night write up that andrew tinkler was on the panel and has ridden
darlan out since the fall and reported no ill effects and was extremely keen on him for the supreme
and that it was all systems go.i reckon he would have run zarkader very close and if he,s ch class
darlan must have a nice chance in the supreme

darlan flat track bully lay at 1/2 mile pole
cinders lay short in the run won't get up the hill
7-1 with coral montbazon pure hype horse hasn't achieved much and would of been beaten by colour squadron last time...trainer thinks the world of him but i don't and makes no appeal at the odds...would of liked to of seen him in the neptune myself.
steps to freedom hasn't prepped and is the worse price in recorded memory also form doesn't add up to much imo
galileos choice if ridden by robbie mcnamara would become a 14's shot overnight

all poor value for the roulette wheel that is the supreme...if any of these win it will be the worst supreme in living memory apart from galileos if ridden by a jockey

Harry, I think it's a bit harsh calling Montbazon a hype horse.

I think he's slipped under most people's radar (apart from Koral's).  He doesn't seem particularly flashy to me, and I think he's been overlooked by a lot of people; prefering ones that travel strongly and win on the bridle ie Darlan, Simonsig etc.

Mont is one of very few in the Supreme that has proven he can quicken off the bridle and can gets his head down and relish a fight; that's a pretty decent trait to have going into the Supreme imo.

All of the hotpots are overbacked and I will be opposing most of them.  The worst value  though has to be Zarkandar.  His profile is a mile away from the winner of a Champion Hurdle and I wouldn't be interested at 3 times his current price. He also lacks the speed of a CH winner.  I reserve the right to back him in the 2013 World Hurdle though.

totally agree thieves his price of 5-2 in the without hurricane market defies belief and i will be laying it to the max on this market come the day...

just been making the same point on another thread

any short priced novice lay lay lay

thieves mick fitz said on ATR the other day that triumph hurdle winners usually get 3 miles in time, think you might be right RE zarkander world hurdle, although next year might be a year too soon

Anything now that isn't NRNB! All the value AP has gone, targets for some still to be finalised and whilst the cards have now all been dealt, some will not be played. There are always defections, normally through injury or illness right up to the start of the meeting, including (unfortunately) some high profile entries.

Noble Price fav when he hasn't won for ages.
Bobs Worth - how he can be shorter now than at start of the season.

First Lientenant - awful price was 20s 3 weeks ago that was about right.

First Lieutenant is a great shout. Awful price.

Grands Crus stats are all against it for RSA and I wouldnt be touching that. Last 48 winners all ran in same calendar year and he hasn't for a start. Spent more than one season over hurdles and is also the Feltham winne whose record is shocking. 10-1 Gold Cup is just plain daft.

Sprinter Sacre is woefully short at 5-4

Oscar Whisky was treading on water over 2m 4 Aintree hurdle so upped 4f against Big Bucks at 9-2 isnt the best

Rubi Light is poor at 5s for Ryanair given he lost in this last year and needs a bog

Simonsig found nothing against Fingal Bay at Sandown so how can he win over 1f further in a Neptune?

Sizing Europe - 10 of last 11 defending champs beat. 11-10?

Record of 5yos in Champion Hurdle is something like 1 win from 100 and that was Katchit in the worst Champ Hurdle ever so Zarkandar is crap at 6s against a winning machine

I am with Harry in having doubts about Montbazon - that was a pretty average bumper he couldn't win earlier in the season and I wonder if he could also be a flat track bully.

There are a multitude who are opposable at the head of the Albert Bartlett market. I am having increasing doubts about Brindisi Breeze in terms of the ground but for me he still goes there with the best performance in the book. Probably the two worst value are Sea Of Thunder and Rocky Creek. Sea Of Thunder is priced up on the basis of that pretty ordinary novice he would have won but for falling. Can't really see why Make Your Mark is a much bigger price for both his entries given that he has already shown that he is the superior animal. Rocky Creek is priced up purely on reputation. He had the run of the race at Doncaster and shouldn't be any shorter than 20/1. On the book Knock A Hand is better than both Sea Of Thunder and Rocky Creek but is currently four times the price.

still lots of bad value to be had if you want

seriously suspect a lot of these will be bigger on the day, bookies just catching all those punters who just have to be "on"

Any horse that could run in more than one race is probably bad value at this stage e.g
If horse A is 12/1 for the supreme novice
         and   12/1 for the neptune       and its 50/50 as to which race it will run in ,then the true
odds your getting is 6/1 if you back it for one or both of these races ,unless it's NRNB.

differentdrum am with you all the way on the albert bartlett...and i have some on sea of thunder but he was woeful the last day and at the prices, is not appealing, the ground will suit more at cheltenham, but at the prices makes no appeal...cannot wait to get involved here as soon as i know for sure that bostons goes the other way...rocky creek won a race where gullinburst found nothing and the pipe horse ran like a drain...

scotsirish at 5-2 is horrible...an habitual loser his whole career he makes no appeal in the x country...he will show up for a long way before doing what he does best...flatter to deceive...one thing for sure, we won't be seeing a 1 next to his name after this race...horrid creature

differentdrum -

Sandy Seymour, his owner, is keen to go to Cheltenham but like us he recognises that Brindisi Breeze will need a cut in the ground. He will be prepared for the Albert Bartlett 3m novice hurdle.

Quote from Lucinda Russell.

Surely the worst value at the festival will be my favourite horse (Not a contradiction in terms) Quantativeeasing. I'm not one to argue with trainers but surely Henderson has missed a trick in not running him in the 'Plate' on the Thurs. I'm sure the stat boys on here can confirm but if QE wins  off 153 but I suspect not..... If it does, you will see a Jamaican man walking naked on the Cheltenham course & believe me I dont want to do that. Waited 3 mths for this horse & I believe Hendo as made the biggest ***k up since Greville rode DB in the 86' derby.

Peddler's Cross is the worst of the lot for me (I actually think the favourite is decent at 5/4 but even if that's mistaken i'd still prefer Al Ferof and Cue Card at the prices to Peddler's who ought to be about 8s)

Hurricane Fly too short at odds on ante post in my view although of course the most likely winner.

Long Run looks pretty short given how unconvincing he has been this season.

5/1 Finian's Rainbow is another shocking price.  Wouldnt take 10s.

Agree with Peddlers Cross.  Done nothing to conclusively suggest he is the real deal as a chaser.  Beat nothing in two runs at Bangor and was well and truly put in its place behind Sprinter Sacre, even if it was slightly below par (although they were always going to say that).

Henderson is trying to get QE qualified for the National your majesty.  Needs to finish 1,2,3,4 in a 3m chase.

Oscar Whisky for me in the World Hurdle at 7/2... Has no chance for me of winning the race, and I wouldn't be certain he'll place anyway. May as well just set money on fire than back him to win it!

Not a definate stayer, and Thousand Stars & Dynaste will not be far away.

without a doubt the worst value at the festival is one of these two...take your pick


1,a lap dance in the fez bar,at 20nicker a time
2,a hot food snack on track,at 7nicker a time
3,10-1 about t itsup getting the first round of beers in.

tweedledumbtweedletwat, worse thing about option 1 is a Vodka Coke in a club in Cheltenham tends to be job done... 1/5 of price and more entertaining!

Kauto in the GC. Has absolute no chance. It's between Long Run and Grands Crus if it runs. Only decent outsider is Weird Al.

^er, OK. 2 from 2 in Grade 1 races this season, both against his main opponent, = "no chance"?

Stronny you silly mug. Remember to read this on GC day when it trails in 4th or 5th

He might well, but even then that means he had a finite chance of winning. I think Long Run is the most likley winner and Burton Port has a strong chance, but to say Kauto has "no chance" is silly.

I suppose you'd be tempted backing Seb Coe to win the 2012 1500m. Face it man, the horse is finished as far as Cheltenham is concerned. It's been one of the best ever but it's gone. It has NO CHANCE

I'm reliably informed that Lord Coe is going to use his power and influence to turn the 2012 1500m into a weight for age handicap with the 1984 Olympic Champion getting in on a very favourable mark so I'd be careful with that analogy.

I'm not going to be backing Kauto, but to say he has no chance is dumb.  Most people including myself thought he would never win a Grade 1 again but he has done twice this season

If we stop humouring these braindead cretins who can't construct any semblance of a logical or reasoned argument, then they might go away, imo.

How much weight will Lord Coe be giving away to Ovett and Cram?

still finding all that bad value I see

Henderson to be top trainer

Feb 28, 2012 -- 9:44PM, King Selassie I wrote:

Surely the worst value at the festival will be my favourite horse (Not a contradiction in terms) Quantativeeasing. I'm not one to argue with trainers but surely Henderson has missed a trick in not running him in the 'Plate' on the Thurs. I'm sure the stat boys on here can confirm but if QE wins