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Can someone talk me out of plonking a wedge on this. Monkey gets you £200 profit to play with on the first day - gotta be G/S on the first day surely they are watering for gods sake...
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Or a £500 hole to get out of before the first race if its not. Better to lump it on Quevega at a better price
Think it was 1/4 last year about this time.... and lost!
They are watering to maintain Good at the mo - and as Swardean points out it was Good on day 1 last year.
This time last year the going was good to soft and even with watering he changed it to 'good, good-to-soft in places' a few days before the meeting.
Thisyear the going is currently good, good-to-firm in places and the forecast is mainly dry and bright. Obviously the long range forecast is never certain, and the 3-4 days before the festival are too far away to be forecast with any great accuracy, but if you look at the BBC, Metcheck od Theweatheroutlook websites, they all suggest dry and bright conditions for the next 14-16 days with just the odd bit of light rain. On Tuesday Claisse said he was starting watering this week to stop it going good to firm, and was aiming to have it good for the start of the meeting:
Simon Claisse, Clerk of the Course and Director of Racing at Cheltenham Racecourse, has news of the ground ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March...
He said: "We think we might have temperatures of 15 and 16 degrees Celsius by the end of the week.
"The course was pretty well frozen from Festival Trials Day (January 28) until Tuesday of last week.
"We managed to get a bit of fertiliser on it last week and I have taken the decision this morning that we will start to water the course tomorrow, primarily to activate that fertiliser.
"If I had to give a going description now, I would call it good, good to firm in places and my expectation would be, without the six to seven millimetres of irrigation we are going to put on, that come Sunday or Monday we would be good to firm.
"The outlook that I have been given today for the next week is predominantly dry. We still remain somewhere between 40 to 50 per cent of our normal expected annual rainfall.
"February, apart from a little bit of snow, has been a particularly dry month - I don't think we have recorded two or three millimetres since the beginning of the month.
"We are trying maintain the ground at good. There will probably still be a little bit of good to firm after we finish this first bout of watering.
Given all thta I would actually suggest (and have backed accordingly) that the 7/2 with PP on good going is the best bet I've seen in years.
Thisyear the going is currently good, good-to-firm in places and the forecast is mainly dry and bright. Obviously the long range forecast is never certain, and the 3-4 days before the festival are too far away to be forecast with any great accuracy, but if you look at the BBC, Metcheck od Theweatheroutlook websites, they all suggest dry and bright conditions for the next 14-16 days with just the odd bit of light rain. On Tuesday Claisse said he was starting watering this week to stop it going good to firm, and was aiming to have it good for the start of the meeting:
Simon Claisse, Clerk of the Course and Director of Racing at Cheltenham Racecourse, has news of the ground ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March...
He said: "We think we might have temperatures of 15 and 16 degrees Celsius by the end of the week.
"The course was pretty well frozen from Festival Trials Day (January 28) until Tuesday of last week.
"We managed to get a bit of fertiliser on it last week and I have taken the decision this morning that we will start to water the course tomorrow, primarily to activate that fertiliser.
"If I had to give a going description now, I would call it good, good to firm in places and my expectation would be, without the six to seven millimetres of irrigation we are going to put on, that come Sunday or Monday we would be good to firm.
"The outlook that I have been given today for the next week is predominantly dry. We still remain somewhere between 40 to 50 per cent of our normal expected annual rainfall.
"February, apart from a little bit of snow, has been a particularly dry month - I don't think we have recorded two or three millimetres since the beginning of the month.
"We are trying maintain the ground at good. There will probably still be a little bit of good to firm after we finish this first bout of watering.
Given all thta I would actually suggest (and have backed accordingly) that the 7/2 with PP on good going is the best bet I've seen in years.
i wish i could bet on he ground changing during the day or over the festival.
I phoned the C of the C the other day and was told that they will be aiming to start the meeting on good to soft and that watering will continue from now up til the meeting
I did argue that surely they shouldn't be changing the state but they said there is a safety agreement that they will start on g/s because it is the perception that the extra speed that horses run at that causes fatal injury when they race on good or faster
good to soft is a virtual cert
I did argue that surely they shouldn't be changing the state but they said there is a safety agreement that they will start on g/s because it is the perception that the extra speed that horses run at that causes fatal injury when they race on good or faster
good to soft is a virtual cert
^ It was exactly the same scenario last year though and he eneded up with good ground (the good to soft patches were about 5% of the course if you looked at the turftrax map).
His starting position this year is worse (i.e. the ground is currently much firmer) and the weather forecast (if it's right) is predominantly dry. He will always say he wants good to soft to appease the animal rights brigade, but nature may prevent that happening - it did last year so given last years precedent I'm happy at 7/2 to bet it will happen again.
Can't wait for the turftrax maps to start getting daily updates.
His starting position this year is worse (i.e. the ground is currently much firmer) and the weather forecast (if it's right) is predominantly dry. He will always say he wants good to soft to appease the animal rights brigade, but nature may prevent that happening - it did last year so given last years precedent I'm happy at 7/2 to bet it will happen again.
Can't wait for the turftrax maps to start getting daily updates.
I wouldnt rush to take odds on for a lump for the sake of it, so many things can go wrong and its hardly going to put you in a good mood if you find yourself a monkey down BEFORE the Supreme!!
All it would take is for them to water on a good forecast then it suddenly changes on the monday, some of the ground descriptions a few years ago were a standing joke(see Clerkwatch!!) but last year was fairly accurate even though it was nearly g/f on the friday imo
Id be inclined to leave big bets on a odds on shot on the say so of a clerk
All it would take is for them to water on a good forecast then it suddenly changes on the monday, some of the ground descriptions a few years ago were a standing joke(see Clerkwatch!!) but last year was fairly accurate even though it was nearly g/f on the friday imo
Id be inclined to leave big bets on a odds on shot on the say so of a clerk
Cheers gents, advice noted and held off. Monkey would be potentially lost but with the wedge I have on Peddlers cross it wouldnt be long before it's all back in the pocket and more.
Agree with the sentiments of most on here - just wait for day one, make sure Quevega is there fot and well and have your 500 on her - bigger return for a more likely result in my opinion!
unclepuncle
23 Feb 12 21:46
Given all that I would actually suggest (and have backed accordingly) that the 7/2 with PP on good going is the best bet I've seen in years.
Who cares about the actual racing - Cheltenham week is already sorted for me
23 Feb 12 21:46
Given all that I would actually suggest (and have backed accordingly) that the 7/2 with PP on good going is the best bet I've seen in years.
Who cares about the actual racing - Cheltenham week is already sorted for me
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