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Cheltenham Festival

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walllace007
21 Feb 12 22:05
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Date Joined: 24 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 247 | Blogger: walllace007's blog
My selections are horses I consider to be value prices and also horses that I think will be running in the selected races. I included 2 bigger priced fancies for the spirit of it. As we come closer to the festival the races will cut up and in theory the prices of my selections should contract, in theory!! I have focused on the novice races as due to the relatively unexposed nature of the horses I can get bigger prices.

For Non Stop - Jewson Novice Chase (currently best price 8/1)
Of the horses at the top of the market Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof and Invictus will most likely be targeting the Grade 1's while Bog Warrior probably wont travel because it tends to be good ground. However Charlie Mann has stated that For Non Stop is a definite runner in the Grade 2 Jewson. This horse has some very impressive Grade 1 form this season including narrow defeats to Al Ferof and Cue Card before impressively landing a Grade 1 at Newbury, being value for more than the 2L winning margin. He has good festival form from last year when falling at the last in the Coral Cup when 2nd and trip and ground should suit. I think the main threat will be Champion Court if he lines up. I think with all the likely withdrawals For Non Stop could be favourite on the day. I just hope the 2 falls at the track haven't left any mental scars.

Sous Les Cieux - Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle (currently best price 16/1)
People will immediately say that getting beat in his last prep run by 50/1 Beneficcient does not entitle this horse to win the Neptune, However i disagree, that was a tactical race and if it had to be run over the Neptune distance of 2m4f instead of 2m2f the fast closing Sous Les Cieux would have had a cosy win and we would be looking at a shorter price. Aslo Captain Conan & Cash and Go were well behind. The stiff 2m4f looks tailor made for this horse. I admit if Simongsig, Boston Bob and Fingal Bay all turn up for this race it will look bad for his chances but i think its a chance worth taking.

Tetlami - Supreme Novices Hurdle (currently best price 16/1)
If Simonsig does go for the Neptune as Barry Geraghty has stated would be his preference it will be bad news for Sous Les Cieux but good news for Tetlami who could then be the Seven Barrows first string and the price will contract immediately. This horse beat Vulcanite by 4L conceding 5lbs while Montbazon beat Vulcanite by 7L off levels yet Montbazon is a 10/1 vs Tetlami 16/1. He won a bumper at the track which shows he handles the undulations and the way he finished strongly up the Sandown hill suggests the stiff Cheltenham finish will suit. There are no Cue Card/Dunguib type "certs" this yr in what looks an open renewal. To go through the opponents; Steps To Freedoms form has taken a few knocks while Darlan’s last visit to Prestbury resulted in an nose victory over a 120 rated opponent, he looks a flat track specialist. Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game havent beaten much of note so Tetlami looks worth a punt.

Al Ferof - Arkle Chase (currently best price 5/1)
In a yankee it is good to have one that you consider almost certain to hit the frame and while the other selections may be somewhat speculative it is very difficult to see Al ferof not being involved in the business end of the Arkle. He has top class form winning 2 of what would be considered trial races for this, as well as being far from disgraced behind 166 rated Somersby against the older horses last time out. The fav could hack up  but at the prices I will take the chance that Sprinter Sacre is a bridle horse who will find nothing coming up the hill when the chips are down.

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Replies: 18
By:
Tatie Baron
When: 24 Feb 12 05:57
Good write up and good luck.  Only thing - What on earth has it got to do with Charlie Mann whether For Non Stop runs or not?
By:
fearless punter
When: 24 Feb 12 11:08
Sir Des Champs Jewson 6-1
Peddlers Cross Arkle 4-1
Balder Succes Triumph 10-1
Cinders and Ashes Supreme 9-1

Keep dreaming.
By:
247lol
When: 24 Feb 12 11:44
1-McCriricks head to be shaking like a jelly whilst giving us the latest stats(seriously,is this guy on something ?)
2-Francome & mcgrath stitching us up with useless info and then telling us they had a few quid on the winner after the race.
3-Ted walsh talking up all the irish losers and trying to avoid talking about their likely winners.
4-Sprinter Sacre and Grands crus being the 2 most over hyped horses at the meeting.
By:
tony2914
When: 24 Feb 12 12:47
had a few ante post each way 15s the one that looks the best up to now is  galilaos choice 14s supreme, blackstaimountain 16s arkle, scotsirish 4s xcountry,royal guardsman 33s bumper . fingers crossed !!!!
By:
That Horse
When: 24 Feb 12 18:23
Did a month or so ago:

Arkle Peddlers cross 5/1
RSA First Lieutenant 16/1
Ryanair Somersby 8/1
Jewson Champion Court 14/1

EW yankee.

Can't wait
By:
jetodd
When: 24 Feb 12 18:35
did this ew yankee at the end of last year:

Champ hurdle - Hurricane Fly 7/4
RSA - First Lieutenant 20/1
Neptune - Monksland 16/1
Arkle - Peddlers Cross 6/1
By:
jetodd
When: 25 Feb 12 10:16
jetodd






24 Feb 12 18:35
Joined:


31 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 211 | Blogger: jetodd's blog



did this ew yankee at the end of last year:

Champ hurdle - Hurricane Fly 7/4
RSA - First Lieutenant 20/1
Neptune - Monksland 16/1
Arkle - Peddlers Cross 6/1

Checked my bets and I actually have Minsk 10/1 instead of The Fly.

I thought I better correct myself! Blush
By:
alleged22
When: 25 Feb 12 13:46
festival handicap-penny max 20-1
centenary novice-shotfromthehip 16-1
neptune-sous les cieux 14-1
coralcup-get me out of here 10-1
By:
VillaBoy
When: 25 Feb 12 17:44
Don't do these bets but looking at it now I'd do

De Boitron (Grand Annual) 16/1
Big Zeb (QM) 5/1
Buena Vista (Pertemps) 12/1
Binocular (Champion) 11/2
By:
patsyone
When: 25 Feb 12 18:41
sir des champ--riverside theat--oscar whisk--mount bnchmark--salsify Trebles-4timers--acc
monksland--moscow mannon--sir de champ-salsify---YANKee
boston bob--first liet--sir des champ--oscar whiskey-- big yankee
very big ew OSCAR WHISKEY
al ferof--simonsig--bobs worth--oscar whiskey yankee
sprinter sacre7/1 oscar whiskey--mount belbulben--bobs worth yankee
BIGGEST RETURN BET---sprinter sacre7/1---first lieutenant 20/1--oscar whiskey 10/1 round robin
padlers cross 6/1xxxgrand crus 7/1(rsa)
By:
Luke01
When: 26 Feb 12 14:51
Binocular 10-1  CH
For Non Stop 8-1 JEWSON
Medermit 16-1 RYNAIR
Quvega 11-8

Put this on in November.
By:
The judge69
When: 26 Feb 12 16:47
Triumph Grumeti 8/1
Neptune Monksland 12/1
Supreme Nov Montbazon 12/1
Nat Hunt Chall Cup Fists of Fury 14/1

Did this 5 days ago and 3 have shortened already
By:
unclepuncle
When: 26 Feb 12 17:08
Did the acca on the 4 reigning Champs to win again @ 66/1 so thats the 4 I'm hoping forHappy.

As for an e/w Yankee. One a day:

Supreme - Mountbazon 12/1
Bumper - Moscow Mannon 10/1
Ryanair - Noble Prince 6/1
Triumph - Shadow Catcher 20/1
By:
walllace007
When: 26 Feb 12 22:57
Tatie - got my trainers mixed up obviously, dont know where Charlie Mann came from. Cristal Bonus looks a major threat now.
By:
marychain1
When: 26 Feb 12 23:35
Surely Sir Des Champs is the biggest threat to For Non Stop?

I'd go...

Cue Card - Arkle 9/1
Sir Des Champs - Jewson 6/1
Riverside Theatre - 11/2
Folsom Blue - Albert Bartlett 14/1
By:
tomking
When: 27 Feb 12 22:06
Grand Vision @ 10/1
Brindisi Breeze @ 10/1
Quantitativeeasing @ 10/1
By:
governor
When: 27 Feb 12 23:53
Lucky 31 ew nrnb b 3.6.5

Could be immense this

Divers          12/1 Byrne Group Plate
Sir des champs   5/1 Jewson Novice chase
Moon dice        9/1 County Hurdle
Realt dubh      16/1 Ryanair
Orsippus        25/1 Coral Cup

This sends me to retirement if these bad boyz come in bring it on like Donkey Kong
By:
Sergei_Rebrofl
When: 28 Feb 12 14:45
Darlan Supreme novices 10/1
Al Ferof Arkle 5/1
For Non Stop Jewson 7/1
Moon Dice County 12/1
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