Cheltenham Festival
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21 Feb 12
20:58
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10 Nov 07
Well this may hurt a few who have got involved today on the back of pricewises advice....but also save others from making a fatal mistake in backing the horse at this years meeting....and also help others who have better prices and can lay off there position if they wish...
Well medermit a noticeable big improver in recent runs with the step up in trip, suiting the horse down to the ground....he has definitely improved on his past performances and on all known form he seems to have a cracking shout in the ryannair chase....
But medermits last run when he ran the race of his life at ascot is the reason why the horse should not be trusted to repeat the form at this years meeting, his profile tells us this....medermit career has consisted of many top races but most of them races when he has ran to his true potential have been early season.
His form when not fresh ie after his prep races (february) which he has won or ran well in, have been less convincing, showing himself to have reached his peak before the big races at cheltenham.....
Medermit seems to hold his form particularly well over the early part of the season then tends to have a break before prepping for the big races in february, which is standard with most horses, but appears to take the edge off of the horse and his runs after have been poor in the context of his form previously...
When looking at his career when he was a novice hurdler he ran up till december then had a break before contesting the supreme when he went down all guns blazing to go native...this was the first real sign of him showing his class...he then went to Ayr when I would say he was over the top when 5th in the scottish champion hurdle...this was a sign of things to come...
The following year he was third (made one awful error) when fresh in the greatwood before running an average race when third in the international but the form read well...before his normal break...when he returned he sluiced up in the champ hurdle trial at haydock before running averagely again in the champion hurdle...again running well fresh before being over the top in the champion....
Last year his season once again went to plan and beat the subsequent arkle winner at sandown but again this showed us that the race had taken more out of the horse than first thought as he subsequently ran just ok at cheltenham and aintree....
This year has been the same story he has improved into a worthy grade 1 horse but for me gave everything he had at ascot and I feel that effort will be his undoing once again at cheltenham....he certainly ran like a fresh horse...in fact the race of his life against a top notcher (riverside) who is different gravy at ascot or kempton....he won't be able to reproduce this again and would suggest being very careful about taking the 7-1 on offer...
In conclusion if Alan king is to ever win a race with him at cheltenham or aintree festivals he will need to back off him after christmas so he is as fresh as a daisy come the big days....
that opportunity has gone this year and I would bet he will not be able to produce the decent figure 170 he ran at ascot the other day....
If the horse can reproduce what he did at ascot I will be astounded as his profile tells me he is finished for this season....he has given everything...
punting him now would of been an error in judgement imo....lets hope most have missed the boat and the cash is still in the post office savings account...
Well medermit a noticeable big improver in recent runs with the step up in trip, suiting the horse down to the ground....he has definitely improved on his past performances and on all known form he seems to have a cracking shout in the ryannair chase....
But medermits last run when he ran the race of his life at ascot is the reason why the horse should not be trusted to repeat the form at this years meeting, his profile tells us this....medermit career has consisted of many top races but most of them races when he has ran to his true potential have been early season.
His form when not fresh ie after his prep races (february) which he has won or ran well in, have been less convincing, showing himself to have reached his peak before the big races at cheltenham.....
Medermit seems to hold his form particularly well over the early part of the season then tends to have a break before prepping for the big races in february, which is standard with most horses, but appears to take the edge off of the horse and his runs after have been poor in the context of his form previously...
When looking at his career when he was a novice hurdler he ran up till december then had a break before contesting the supreme when he went down all guns blazing to go native...this was the first real sign of him showing his class...he then went to Ayr when I would say he was over the top when 5th in the scottish champion hurdle...this was a sign of things to come...
The following year he was third (made one awful error) when fresh in the greatwood before running an average race when third in the international but the form read well...before his normal break...when he returned he sluiced up in the champ hurdle trial at haydock before running averagely again in the champion hurdle...again running well fresh before being over the top in the champion....
Last year his season once again went to plan and beat the subsequent arkle winner at sandown but again this showed us that the race had taken more out of the horse than first thought as he subsequently ran just ok at cheltenham and aintree....
This year has been the same story he has improved into a worthy grade 1 horse but for me gave everything he had at ascot and I feel that effort will be his undoing once again at cheltenham....he certainly ran like a fresh horse...in fact the race of his life against a top notcher (riverside) who is different gravy at ascot or kempton....he won't be able to reproduce this again and would suggest being very careful about taking the 7-1 on offer...
In conclusion if Alan king is to ever win a race with him at cheltenham or aintree festivals he will need to back off him after christmas so he is as fresh as a daisy come the big days....
that opportunity has gone this year and I would bet he will not be able to produce the decent figure 170 he ran at ascot the other day....
If the horse can reproduce what he did at ascot I will be astounded as his profile tells me he is finished for this season....he has given everything...
punting him now would of been an error in judgement imo....lets hope most have missed the boat and the cash is still in the post office savings account...
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good points...but all that aside, what reason did PR give for thinking that he had any chance against riverside theatre regardless.
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on at 16s so it's all moot because I will be trading out
but as you know Harry I have been following his progress and he has improved every run this season and I expect him to improve again at the Festival especially if the going is good and he gets a very strong pace to chase. They might go to Aintree for the Bowl and he could improve again there for the extra difference |
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sorry judo but as much as i think you have a price edge... his overall profile says he is done for the season....as i said above he seems to have one big race in him in after the turn of the year then no more...if he turns this massive stat around he would be a changed horse from the one thats form hits the wall after his prep runs that have been against decent horses each year....this year is no different pal...
sorry to hear about roudo for you pal...big shame liked him myself |
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Bold statement Harry and well researched.Although I wouldn't be
surprised to see a big run from him. You may be right but dangerous to write a horse off that easily imo.Maybe a drift on him could follow as I,d want 10,s minimum for an e/w bet |
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you make some very good points harry but all his runs at the festival have been over 2miles,which in top class races he just doesnt have the pace especially on good ground,the ryanair should suit him perfectly unless its very soft
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bbs i'm not writing him off but his figures when not fresh at this time of year says tired horse...I maybe wrong and in which case he will go very well....but until the animal proves he can go again after another brilliant prep run I will have my reservations...
your getting 7-1 to find out....but I think he will probably run well but as always not to the peak he has shown after his prep run... bold i know but thats punting and the edge for me.... |
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in fact no real edge as the race is still murder on the punting front....
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totally disagree with you, choosing the Champion Hurdle as evidence has no relevance, the horse has gone 158, 162, 168 and 170 in 4 runs and I expect the improvement to continue
sorry Harry but I live and breathe this stuff and although your piece looks nice on poaper the horse has been doing the talking on the track and he will get ideal conditions at Cheltenham (unlike at Ascot where the going had gone soft) - good ground and a strong gallop Mark miwordz |
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Judo you say Medermit and Great Endeavour, both age 8, are big improvers this season but that Rubi Light stopped improving when he was a six year old.
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fair play judo but it must be remembered for me he ran the race of his life at ascot as he always does in february after a break and that is my point....will he reproduce, he never has before???...it is on paper pal your right...on his whole career paper...listen hope he does it for you but I wouldn't of written what I did if I didn't believe in it...and I do.
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As it happens judo just for the row, as is mine and yours want...it wasn't just in the champion, he did the same last year, the only time he has ran well at cheltenham was on the back of a lay off (supreme) in which he didn't prep???
like I say he ran a big figure at ascot will the beast reproduce like he hasn't in the past?? got to go, going to my favourite italian but will continue this argument on my return as it interests me...its all a learning curve judo and I have lived and breathed the game for 20 years myself... the case continues.... |
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As a fan of the horse and a backer in last years Arkle, I suspect that it is nothing more scientific than Medermit being just a few lbs short of the very best. The Festival is the Olympics (cliche alert!) of the NH sphere and to prevail nothing less than the best will do. I reckon he'll get found out again.
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I agree with Desmond
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Medermit is still entered in the Gold cup and Alan king stated the following in thursdays weekender
"I will speak to his owners this week and make a decision as to whether he goes for the ryanair chase or Gold Cup" |
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backed medermit for the ryanair ages ago but must admit Harry has me a tad concerned.thats quiet an interesting point hes making i think,not sure its the case,but food for thought.
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50/1 Medermit NRNB looks too big to me still. I can't see any down side to the bet. He'll surely go off shorter than that if he runs.
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