Riverside Theatre-Why not run in the Gold Cup?

Remember the gold cup is 3m2 1/2 furlongs.

That extra 1/4 of a mile is a long way. Especially as his last run over 3m was at kempton. A flat track.

Next year I would definitely say yes.

But then again, I've backed him at 200 odd on here for this years so lets hope he gets supplemented!

I think the Ryanair this year will be a good stepping stone for next year.

Yes,totally agree,but just cant understand why they never had more than one go over 3 miles,
would love to see him at least have another crack over 3 miles/3 miles+,if i owned him i know thats what id have done,
Better to have failed trying than not trying at all,(although as mentioned,he did try the trip once)
But id like to see conclusive evidence that he doesnt stay!

what a choice that would be for geraghty.

these other owners must be so glad that rwc uses his son aboard long run.

Perhaps because Long Run picked him up and dumped him over the rails in the King George over a flat 3 miles. Which would you put your money on improving for going up that hill 3 times over an extra quarter mile?

Eeternaloptimist,Correct me if im wrong,but did Long Run do the same to Kauto Star that day?
and we've seen what has happened since

No disrespect but you are clutching at straws. Not only did Kauto never travel that day but he jumped the second or third last like he had clogs on. Lets look at cold hard facts. Riverside seemed to stay okay but not like an express train over a flat 3 miles at Cheltenham having been ridden to get the trip.

To me his breeding is almost overwhelming. He is out of King's Theatre through Sadlers Wells. The common prception is that the vast majority of a horses stamina comes through the sires line. To my knowledge neither of those horses has ever produced a horse good enough to place in a gold cup and yet they have produced some absolutely top notch two and a two and a half milers. Sometimes if you get an exceptionally strong maternal line you may just be able to make a case for eking out a bit further stamina wise but it has to be exceptional. I'm thinking of a Roselier or some of the old style national hunt horses which would stay longer than the mother in law. This also isn't the case with Riverside.

If he takes to the track I'm of the firm opinion that the Ryanair is the perfect race for him. Of course he could be the exception and I could be wrong and he could run up the hill like his arse is on fire.

At Kempton that should read.

Having said that I'm not one to sweep inconvenient facts under the carpet and I can offer you one crumb of comfort. I simply can't figure out why a horse with boundless stamina in Synchronised can be out of Sadlers and Bob Back on the dams side which are two horses which don't scream out, "run me round a six mile ploughed field." I think he is the exception proving the rule but just maybe Riverside could be as well. My problem with that theory is that he has a hell of a lot more basic speed than Synchronised and in view of his high crusing speed seems to me to fall into that category of top class strong finishing two and a half milers rather than gold cup horse.

I think the main reason is Long Run and Burton Port.

The second reason is that RT looks very much a flat track horse and possibly has a preference for right handed courses.

The third reason is it would be odd to test a horse's stamina for the first time in a very demanding race like the Gold Cup.

Fourth, if he handles the track he's a major player in the Ryanair.

Dont think he will have too many problems over Ryanair trip, one race in Arkle where they went very fast, not enough evidence that he doesnt act on track.
But suppose thats why Badblokes went b/price 7/1, had interest best form in race imo.

personally think that the yard know what his distance is and how far he needs to show his best,and they are campaigning him accordingly.

Stevo - he's won 9 races, all at Newbury, Kempton and Ascot. 3 of his worst defeats have been at Cheltenham and Punchestown. I agree it doesn't show clearly he doesn't handle and undulating track, but it's suggestive.

Yep,suggestive enough to stop me from ever backing him in a competitive race at Cheltenham.
If the race was at Ascot he would be a darn sight shorter and much more likely to win,that im sure of.
Cheltenham?? no thanks.

The common prception is that the vast majority of a horses stamina comes through the sires line

Am I reading that correctly?  Is that just Jumps?  I would say exactly the opposite, certainly on the Flat.

Was a bit surprised at that statement too TH.

I could be wrong on that. It originally arises from a comment made a few years ago by Jim McGrath when they were looking at pedigrees in relation to whether a particular horse was likely to get the Derby trip if memory serves me correctly. I thought he made a comment to that effect and they were quite keen to explore the sires side of the family and less so the dam's. To be honest I don't follow flat racing that much and when I look at such things I do go through both sides of the family anyway. I've had a quick check and google and couldn't find anything conclusive but this comes from wiki:

The stallion should be chosen to complement the mare, with the goal of producing a foal that has the best qualities of both animals, yet avoids having the weaker qualities of either parent. Generally, the stallion should have proven himself in the discipline or sport the mare owner wishes for the "career" of the ensuing foal. Mares should also have a competition record showing that they also have suitable traits, though this does not happen as often.

Some breeders consider the quality of the sire to be more important than the quality of the dam.

I'm not sure it sheds too much light either way but if anybody has further information it would be much appreciated as it greatly interests me.

The "fact" that stamina comes mostly from the dam's side is a complete myth. It was proved (by Mendel?) hundreds of years ago that traits are inherited equally from both parents.

I might be missing something here, but isn't the point just that a good stallion will sire hundereds of foals so we have a good idea what their characteristics tend to be. Whereas a mare will only have a handful of foals so there is no statistical significance to their characteristics, and the characteristics of the damsire are obviousky less likley to be passed on than those of the sire.

In any case, I find pedigrees frequently unreliable for NH horses as there are countless anomalies (for example the best steeplechasers frequently have many genetic characteristics of sprinters which would imply less stamina but in fact makes for better jumpers; also not all NH horses are pure thoroughbreds and those that aren't have a good record in certain races).

All fair points but in relation to your second paragraph when you have prolific sires who fire out hundreds of offspring don't you think it relevant when you have the same ones repeatedly siring certain types who do well in top class staying chases and equally prolific sires hardly ever get anything which stays beyond a certain distance? In fact perhaps paradoxically I'd go so far as to say that it is sometimes even possible to make an educated guess as to the sire of certain horses even by the way they jump or make the shape to jump.

Eternal - it's almost certainly something I don't make enough use of. I'll rarely even look at the pedigree outside of bumpers and novice hurdles. I suppose with steeplechasers my (subconscious) view is that I'd rather judge them from what they've done on the track than from their pedigree. I might well be ignoring a profitable angle.

I doubt many biology students would argue with that, dtamutants.  It's quite hard to reconcile it with some sires' records though.  There are definitely plenty of them that have a strong distance requirement with their progeny, which correlates to their own racing career (Montjeu?  Tiger Hill?) but others simply impart class and generally defer(ed) to the dam for trip (Oasis Dream? Kingmambo? Danehill?). 

As ever in racing, there probably isn't a general rule to follow - it's all about the individual, isn't it?

strontium

Like yourself my first preference is always what my eyes tell me. Under some circumstances I'll look at how a race was run and then time how they ran the final few furlongs compared to others. Is it running on strongly or tying up against the clock? A good example of this was when Denman hosed up at Newbury on the same day as Kauto had a struggle to see off L'Ami (when not fully wound up) and yet Denman ran a similar overall time but quicker from the last on the far side. It caused me to form a view that given similar conditions he would be in the same vicinity as Kauto all other things being equal on that course. It was stored in the memory bank until he came out with a mark of 161 (I think) for his first Hennessy......and the rest is history as they say. I do use the breeding as another piece of a large jigsaw. One critical aspect I find is to never stand still. What was a trend can change over time as with French breds once never having a hope in the national. I take the view that you can't have too much useful info. Sorting the wheat from the chaff can be the difficult bit.

Indeed The two main reasons I use this forum are to learn new things and to clarify my thinking on things, so stuff like this is always enlightening.

i always have a quick glance at the sire of horses i intend to back,especially in the jumps game,
i remember reading somewhere that Daylami has never sired a horse that has won over further than 3 miles,
So if i see a Daylami in a hurdle or chase over 3 miles/3 miles plus,it immediately puts me off,
im also more often than not put off by Gallileo's over Hurdles,i find they regress with racing over hurdles,and wouldnt touch them over fences,granted there's not many Gallileo's over hurdels/fences.but ive seen quite a few in my time,
im not gonna pretend i know a lot about breeding,because i dont,but i have my methods,and they seem to be profitable more often than not,
ps,anyone know anything about Goldneyev as a sire,im starting to quite like him as a NH sire

Looks like he wants at least 3 miles to me

Some people are never happy.