PW Ryanair Pick

Done my own write up on the race. Hope it is of some interest. Fiendishly tough race to pin down!!

http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/02/ryanair-chase-early-look.html

Good write up IC, but I have to take issue with Rubi Light being a bridle ponse.

Judo has said on here there are question marks over his small runner Irish form, concerns over the ground, lack of course form etc, and I can accept all that - that's why he's 5/1 and not 2/1.  But he is definitely not a bridle ponse.

I suggest you look at the video from last year's Ryanair again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTU1V4xVWxc (just skip it to 4 mins which is three from home)

Turning for home he was 1 length behind Albertas Run, having made a bad mistake, and got checked on the turn by Albertas Run.  Both of them were off the bridle the entire time, and he crossed the line 2 lengths down overall.

Therefore from the turn for home to the line, he lost a total of 1 length to a tough and game horse like Albertas having lost loads of momentum twice!

for the life of me I can't understand why he is as short as 5/1. Got beat by Poquelin last year and that is nowhere near good enough. Has only run on soft since and now has the prospect of facing up to Riverside Theatre, Great Endeavour, Medermit, Sommersby, Noble Prince and Albertas Run - all of which want good ground and have at least as good if not better form. 5/1? pfft terrible price

Nice write up. I must say that I'm finding this race a nightmare to pick the winner of. I like Great Endeavour and Albertas Run is looking an enticing price (though an 11 year old without a run in almost 5 months is not my usual idea of a grade one festival punt), but a good case could also be put up for all the five above them in the market. I was even tempted by Little Josh at a huge price after running well for a good distance of the Argento, but his subsequent appearance at Ascot has knocked him completely off my radar.

I can't be bothered arguing again, but Rubi Light has never once been beaten by Poquelin

Quote in the Racing post Analysis after his jog round the other day

Winning trainer Robbie Hennessy: "You couldn´t ask for more. Rubi Light is a stronger horse this season. That was impressive and goes for the Ryanair, although the ground wouldn´t want to be too quick."

Will 5/1 look good when the going is really quick? Err.. no

sorry Kalahari King finished second - still nowhere near the level to win this renewal and Poquelin was fourth

Got beat by Poquelin last year and that is nowhere near good enough

Is this the same Poquelin that beat your nap Great Endeavour giving over a stone?

we shall see that's all I can say

we could get very quick ground by the time this race is run and that will be enough

I've said that I accept your arguments re ground, course etc.  All of that has to be factored in when you take a price.

All I'm saying is you can think he is the worst fav ever, but he isn't a bridle ponse.  In his last 6 runs he's been off the bridle twice - once he didn't stay the 3 miles and the other he found loads in the Ryaniar.

I've said on other threads its between him, Riverside and Albertas for me, and I don't think much will change that.

Judorick it wont be very quick ground mate,clerk of course will see to that!

Is this the same Poquelin that beat your nap Great Endeavour giving over a stone?

Thats a fair point i would think.Poquelin never wins the race,not quiet good enough at the top level.

I do think GE has improved since then,but that much?? not for me.
And to be honest Pricewise tipping it makes no difference as far as im concerned.

looks like he has put up medermit by the look of oddschecker...

Rubi Light is a top class horse. Lets not forget the beating he would have gave to Sizing Europe but for falling at the last fence. The only doubt with this horse is the ground, and perhaps a smaller doubt re his tendency to clip the top of a fence.

did Seagull go for Medermit then?

Its difficult enough to pick the winner of a race without having to second guess some tipster or other - crazy - a bit like virtual racing.

judorick,watch last yrs again,  KK only finished 2nd because of a very poor ride from G lee,

fair enough if you say so, makes it even harder for RL to win then if you are correct

as for quick ground, the meeting is likely to start on good with good to soft in places and get quicker - by the Thursday it could easily be the quick side of good

see what the time of the Arkle comes in at

Yes he did Judorick re Medermit, good mention for Endeavour as well.
Think it should be drifting not coming in given his previous ante-post selections.

Captain Chris  20/1       Gold Cup
Oscars Well ( e/w ) 25/1   Champion Hurdle
Wishful Thinking     20/1  Champion Chase
Carlito Brigante ( e/w ) 50/1 World Hurdle
Menorah              16/1     Arkle
Silviniaco Conti     16/1     Sun Alliance
First Lieutenant     12/1       "   "   
Midnight Game        14/1     Supreme
Vulcanite            20/1       "

How many of these would you back now?

Best chance maybe Oscars Well place imo.

i dont think they will let it go the quick side of gd mate, theyll water if it starts to get to dry

they stop watering on the tuesday

cant ever remember them watering during the week

Correct when was last time they ran on Good-Firm at Festival since watering policy?

they ll have it maybe good , but def no quicker !

I agree that I find it hard to see Rubi Light winning on the likely ground. He is indeed very good with dig in the ground but imo will always come up a little short in a Grade 1 on good ground.

However judo you were the person who brought up last year's form, so how do you see GE turning the formlines round? as wellchief said Poquelin beat GE conceding over a stone - twice. And RL beat Poquelin in last year's Ryanair obviously off levels?

also you need to remember that there is frequently a difference between what the official going description is and what the race times indicate

just watched lasts yrs again FFS lee!!!!!

I already rate Great Endeavour better than Medermit and that's all I can say - they both have outstanding claims

will they water after the tuesday if needed?
I mean have they done so before?

I may have to write to the C of the C

I attended the Festival for every day of racing for 9 years straight and they never watered after the tuesday because of the rsk of false ground etc... I don't know if they would water in the evening but even if they did it would only be to keep the grass fresh

the track drains so quickly that without watering or rain the going quickens up from tuesday to thursday AND the water table will be very low this year because of the lack of rain meaning there is a steep gradient

could be quick going this year

I'm sure I remember last year on the day, a few of PW ante post selections actually going off around the price he tipped them up at in his column.

got a very quick response

They will water "to maintain safety" during the Festival but not during racing on either track

and we need remember they change to the new course on the Thursday

So they are gonna water. Get on Rubi Light!!!!!

the going is currently good

they are going to maintain which it will remain good

this is no way suggests anyone should back Rubi Light

not going to respond on the formlines with poquelin then judo?

kk holds poquelin on last yr even with the shockin ride on kk

No referring to GE in relation to Rubi Light

that was TWO years ago and so NO! because it is irrelevant as it is easy to see that the horse has im[proved bundles since the December Gold Cup 2010 or whenever

It was last season actually and YOU brought up the formline with Rubi Light and Poquelin in last years Ryanair.

Yes I am sure GE has improved, I would suggest that Rubi Light has as well. I am actually genuinely interested in understanding why you believe GE will win from a form perspective

On all known form GE cannot win,has to be a hunch i reckon.

No I didnt it was that total mug that did

I dont give two figs about last years race, that to me is irrelevant

I dont think Rubi Light can be said to have improved much at all RPR 166 in last years RA and in 4 races since his best is 169 beating Chicago Grey ( a 4 mile stayer) on heavy.

the form line that makes me think GE is top class is the Paddy Power and Spinal Research form with QE and Medermit. I happen to believe that had GE not blundered in the Spinal Race he would have won and quite impressively too (I know he did blunder but you cant factor that)

So through QE who won the race, I have GE winning by a couple of lengths or more and producing a rating of 174 which would be enough to win if he produces it

Presumably it's that the form of the December handicap is very strong (won by quantitativeeasing) and GE beat Quant quite easily in the Paddy Power. I'm not sure handicap form translates so weel to the Ryanair nowadays (it certainly used to), but it's a reasonable form line to follow.

Medermit confirmed the strength of the form in the Ascot chase and I rate Great Endeavour better than Medermit by about 6lbs really. Medermit just got 170 RPR which I think is 2lb high, so GE is 174 for me and he loves the track and needs good ground. The faster they go the better for him too

that's just my analysis and Medermit backs it up - just have to see if GE matches my estimation

Judo, out of interest, and generally (ie not just in this case), do you find ratings you generate in handicaps translate to G1 races? I feel with ORs a "170" in a G1 is often a lot sounder than a "170" obtained for a handicap.

Last years race is very relevant as far as im concerned,and i would add NP and Medermit to those that ran in the race and i think thats where the winner will be found.

So do i Stront.

The aforementioned Poquelin is a good example of being wary of 170 ratings in a handicap. Although there is a big difference in the price Poquelin went off to the one GE will go off at.

We shall see what happens

I am looking for potential and evidence that potential has been underestimated or indeed overestimated

I set, as I have said, a potential peak performance rating for races/horses based on experience and generating ratings for best part of 25 years. I don't normally share all this but as I'm on and the prices have gone it don't matter. So in the Paddy Power Hcp Chase I awarded Great Endeavour a "peak potential" of 174 and I fully trust that rating. I expect him without question to be able to run to that when given ideal conditions.

The last bit is important because the ideal conditions will vary for each horse - they all want something different - and for me Great Endeavour wants a true run race on good ground at slightly further than 2.5 miles but less than 3 miles in order to produce a 174 performance. Therefore, I will say now IF the first mile of the Ryan AIr is run at only a steady gallop Great Endeavour will lose unless it is he that is setting it. Same argument goes for Medermit.

Anyway, there you go that's what I have been doing for years and years. There's no point in me telling you all the winners I have found with this method. I did, as you may have heard me say, run a very long running thread on a now extinct forum from 2002 to 2004 which made vast profits using exactly these methods

and when you are betting 10-16/1 shots you don't need may winners to end up in front

True,but if they aint good enough,the price being bigger dont really matter.
Of course the price can make one take a chance,and its not an exact science,but i just think their are more likely winners of the race than GE.

Thanks judo - I appreciate your insight.

I can see what you mean about the strength of that race but to my eye it takes a huge leap of faith to say it would have won impressively as the mistake was so far out. It did make up ground okay and and then felt it in the last 3 furlongs but if you have it 6lbs ahead of Medermit on that, then that's for you to choose.

One thing I completely disagree with however is that last year's Cheltenham form is irrelevant

Thanks Judo, I see.

that's why it is a game of opinions - we will find out if he is good enough soon enough. I say "he has the potential" and at 14s to me it was worth finding out if my analysis is accurate as I know from experience it has been often enough to make it worthwhile

Even i found that interesting Judo

rubi light will be one of my biggest bets of the weak, cudnt possibly take it easy on this one! class act thats fur sure

same method made me rate the Sprinter as a peak 165 after his debut run, that did not increase for his second run but the win at newbury has raised his peak potential to 175 on my method. He could yet increase that

am a big gr8 endevour fan trip course for excellent granted has bit to find but really improved this year going each way trble with buena vista and balder succes

rubi light can go on fast ground as he proved in last yrs race, it was only 3 out cost him, improved mountains since then, any ground will do, as long as he still got 4 legs come raceday he cud round backwards and still win, there'll be monster gamble on this come raceday trust me, will go off 3's a t best

that's not what the trainer thinks

he has been quoted several times saying "he don't want it too quick"

if it's quick going I think it will drift like a barge so one of us is going to be wrong at least - if not both

and as a ratings man myself I can tell you I have studied Rubi Lights performance since and including the Ryan Air and the performances have a spread of no more than 7lbs from best to worst - consistent efforts yes, not really any significant improvement

Look up any reliable sets of ratings you like, I am convinced they will all say the same. Oh, and his two highest ratings of 169 and 167 both came on heavy going where he front ran in fields of 5 and 4 runners. Ignore those and his best effort is 166 in last years Ryan Air... and 166 aint gonna get it done

but what do I know?

rubi light has stuffed horses that have been running over inadequate trips.a do not think it will win .but a lot off shrewdies i know say its there nap of meetinga all bowt opinions

Someone only has to mention the words "Rubi" and "Light" and you're all over it like flies round ****

only mention?

ffs read the post I was responding to "massive gamble", "goes on anything" "massive improvement"

complete subjective bollox written by a fan boy with zero objectivity that's why I was responded - it was a bs post

but then most of the posts surrounding that horse are

"go round backwards and win"

Do you just use numbers and ratings blind?

Big Bucks has been on an official rating of 174 since April 09.  Are you telling me he hasn't improved one pound in nearly 3 years.  Hurricane Fly had 4 runs rated 166,166,166 and 167 - did he only improve 1 pound over 4 runs?

I'd rather use my judgement and my eye.

Just because a horse doesn't improve an OR or an RPR doesn't mean they're not improving!

right, of course you can just look and be able to tell that and that the form is better than any other horse is capable of producing without referring to any ratings

I must be massively inferior because I actually look for evidence and measurements to support my opinions rather than using visual impression.

well chief
that just about sums it up for me too.

I can't see which form has Rubi Light improving. Ok he would have beaten SE if he stayed on his feet but SE was massively below form that day as the proximity of the 3rd shows. He beat Joncol 5 lengths but is that a better run than last years Ryanair? Too early to **** his latest run. It's possible Chicago Grey hs been under performing until the GN weights came out and will now show better form.

I have no doubt Judorick you know your horses and everyone is entitled to their opinion but I think by the sound of it you are coming under pressure!

judo u constanlty yapping on about ratings, its tiring, this horse is a class act improving and cant wait til it wins and u can admit u got this  1 wrong

he aint improved judo, but last years winner albertas, chelt specialist is 12/1 , ys rubi 5's? and albertas likely gonna get the ground he wants

rubi lights run in last years ryanair proves he doesn't need bad ground, what's the first thing to go if that were the case...outpaced!! yet he travelled easily on the ground and it was he that quickened the pace and had them in trouble, even after the bad mistake at the 3rd last he stayed on again well....and as for beating horses like chicago grey over its wrong trip, well yes, but he beat him 16 and it could have been doubled at will, what's wrong with that.

As an interesting intermediary on this one, I fancy two horses in the Ryanair and they are Rubi Light and Great Endeavour !

The latter I feel was as impressive a winner of the Paddy Power as I have ever seen, and I agree with Judo's position that the Ryanair could well provide every single one of the characteristics that allow him to run to his peak, which I don't think it does for any of the others (save maybe Alberta's). Also, I know this is a simplistic view, but have a read of the roll of honour for the Paddy Power and it is not hard to see this one following a long-established pattern of proving himself a Grade One horse.

As for Rubi Light, I think he is very classy, ran a blinder last year, will not be as inconvenienced by good ground as many think, and is coming in to the race in peak form. I am sure he is capable of running in the 170s and that could be good enough. I am not a ratings man as much as some others, so for me I couldn't really care that he has not improved his RPR much this season. He has maintained it at a very high level, and I don't think it is easy to run in the 170s when you are beating up weak opposition in small field chases. I don't think he stayed three miles and has not really had the chance to run much higher than he has in his other races, but last year's Ryanair effort points to his ability to do so in my opinion.

Tom, as usual I can't fault any of that.

When a horse reaches a certain rating they can still run to a very high level and not have that rating improved.  My Big Bucks and Hurricane Fly examples above show that.  Somersby ran a blinder at Ascot and never had his rating increased, Oscar Whisky has ran to a high level and has never had his rating increased since last year.  Why? Because he hasn't raced in as competitive race, but that doesn't mean he hasn't improved since the Champion Hurdle.

Its only when all the big boys line up at Cheltenham do ratings of those in the 160's go up.

Its easy to raise a second season novice a good few pounds, or one that is low in the handicap, but the higher in the weights you get the more they level out no matter how well you run.

Just because Rubi Light hasn't improved his rating, it does  not mean he has not improved.  When comparing Grade 1 horses, ratings are meaningless to me.  Poquelin has the highest rating of all the Ryanair horses, which says it all to me.

I think Somersby has the class to win this. Not the easiest of horses to get a handle on. Seems to love Ascot but has run well at Cheltenham a few times too. Looks the hardest non handicap race to have a very strong fancy in tbh.

The most pertinent part of today's PW feature for me was an upbeat quote from Jonjo O'Neill with regard to the well being of Albertas Run.

Alberta's is definitely a tough one for me to weigh up. I very nearly backed him two years ago and got it right 12 months ago when he dug me out of a hole at a nice price ante-post. You have to respect him hugely based on this race giving him exactly what he needs to excel, but from what is probably an illogical standpoint, I am struggling having him as a four-time Festival winner when so many genuine champions fail to win more than twice.

I am concerned about his absence, too. Not because he won't run well fresh but because we have no idea if at the age of 11 he is still as good as he was, and given the strength in depth here, I think he'll have to be.

For those reasons I am dodging him but can completely understand why people would back him at the prices. Fantastic horse.

he is an amazing horse and one that i've never backedi remember watching him trying to keep tabs on MM at ascot early last season and taking an horrendous looking fall as a consequence...i thought to myself at that moment, well that's the last we'll see of him!!

Hes never been fashionable to back imo,always a big price and often delivers when it matters ie at the festival.
Just love it when hes ignored and punted against,and its happening again,although with his problems i can understand that this year.But if he is right on the day he will be bang there.Not one horse in the race that has proved better than Albertas over 21f at Cheltenham.

wouldnt touch this race with a barge pole from a betting point of view, any of the first 8 in the betting could win this on his day, although it will be one hell of a race...

Wellchief,

You make good points re ratings and in particular Oscar Whisky.
Its clear to me that the horse has improved this season but if his rating remains the same,it cannot be accurate.
Ive never as far as i can remember ever looked at a horses rating when punting.
I do ok,maybe if i did i would do better,but then again the opposite might happen.
I will stick i think.

Budd - it's amazing about Albertas isn't it? This is a genuinely top class horse with a superb record at the major festivals and in the highest class. Maybe it's because he specialises in an unfashionable trip, or maybe it's because he always struggles in the winter, but people always underrate him. I know he's 11 now and he's coming back from an injury, but his price is unbeliveable for a track and Festival specialist. I'll probably keep backing hem until he shows me he can't do it any more.

Yeh,i certainly find it anazing mate,people are always backing shorter priced horses,poquelin being a perfect example,and no mater how many times AR goes and proves them wrong,you can be sure it happens again next time,amazing but great!!
Hes won me more money then any other horse and thats due to his price being too big,and his consistency on the big occasion.
Yep,keep backing him mate,i will.

Was it last year or the year before someone put AR up on this very forum as a dark horse at 33/1 antepost for the ryanair, put me onto it too, and it dotted up!

Anyone know what race is being PW'd next week?

I had Albertas Run for his RSA win at 5/1 and then two years ago at 33/1 antepost. I wasnt going to back him last year but then as soon as Buena Vista went in in the race before, me and my mate looked at each other, and both said the same thing. The ground is good, lets get on Albertas Run. We both did sizeable doubles on it and Big Buck's and it turned our festivals around.

Love that horse!

@MPR Its the Neptune

Did Pricewise go for Albertas Run then?

Two 11 year olds have managed to win a race in the last 10 Festivals, only trouble is 202 have run

which makes it seem an usual tip for PW where I thought the idea was to get an edge

He tipped Medermit

thats good,had him backed after Exeter when the price was rather generous i thought.

Will be backing another and did not want pw ruining the price.

ah thanks

talking of albertas - jonjo latest - "he came back injured after the Old Roan but he's recovering and we cant wait for the festival. He'll go straight to Cheltenham - he might have a racecourse gallop or two but that will be it"

i've defended this horse to the hilt and always will. always underestimated......

not the best prep and 11 yo now, a very unlikely winner statistically but each to their own methods I suppose

Thats good to hear pun run,like you i always defend the horse,age will catch up,but till he shows me it has he will be on my side.

Great Endeavour looking a little weak in the market - had thought this was because Pipe was considering handicaps as well but he looks weak enough in them too. Hope all is well...

Yeah, he is taking a little bit of a walk, out to 17.

Nothing to be alarmed at the moment, maybe people backing him hoping he'd be Pricewised, and now getting rid?

I'd keep an eye on it if I was a backer anyway.

Great Endeavour. Not alone has he never won a grade one he has not even run in a grade one or a grade 2. Of course he might prove me wrong but ....

Could get his ground,but agree,dont look good enough to me.

Riverside Theatre (11/2) , Rubi Light (11/2) , Noble Prince (6) , Somersby (7) , Medermit (8) , Albertas Run (9) , Great Endeavour (12) , Poquelin (16) , Captain Chris (20) , Quel Esprit (25) , Realt Dubh (25) , Kalahari King (28) , Little Josh (28) , Blazing Tempo (33) , French Opera (33) , Kauto Stone (33) , Forpadydeplasterer (40) , Gauvain (40) , Apt Approach (50) , Champion Court (50)  - Others  50 or more


RYANAIR CHASE

David Pipe - Great Endeavour is the Plate but I imagine the owner will want to run here. Everything went wrong with him in the 3m Festival handicap last year and needs to improve to win. 2n5f at Cheltenham is ideal for him. David pipe thought Great Endeavour had a really good chance which would improve on better going. DP- Great Endeavor got to improve. Best fresh in cracking form drier the form the better but has 10 lbs to find. Would go h'cap if up to him but owner wants to run in Ryanair.

Nick Williams - Gauvain is a 2m4f horse but he will go to the race where he has the best chance of picking up some prize money so the race with the smallest field (other option is Champion Chase).

Paul Jones - Having not been a great fan if they run Somersby here I am very much warming to his each-way chance as he has the class, is most consistent and cheekpieces could be the making of him. Paul Jones thought Somersby was very good EW bet, but not sure he wouldn’t go for the Queen Mother Chase. Great Endeavour and Medermit needed to find around 7lbs

Charlie Longsdon - I don’t think you can rule out Albertas Run again and Jonjo knows what it takes. I’d love to this horse win it for a third time. If it comes up soft though I would switch to Rubi Light.

Andrew Tinkler - Riverside Theatre was very much tuned up for Ascot. He gets himself fit so there is not much to work on. He could be better on a flat track. I quite like the chances of Medermit to reverse form as Choc almost fell off during the race which we gave him stick for and he wasn’t beaten far and 2m5f suits him really well. If you offered me the ride between Riverside Theatre and Medermit, I would pick Medermit.

Kevan Minter - The message was very strong for Riverside Theatre at Ascot and the money was right. For me he is an outstanding each-way bet.

Paul Binfield said Noble Prince is the selection here, last race, ground was too soft. Massive chance this time

Andrew King thought it was between Somersby and Great Endeavour

John Francome - Albertas run

Jessica Harrington - Rudi Light/Albertas run/Noble Prince

Tom Segal - Medermit if runs/Noble Prince

Davy Russell - Noble Prince. Rubi Light can have one good run on good ground and this is his chance. He has improved 10lbs since last year. His bet of the meeting is Noble Prince! Has had a wind op since last year.

Hayley O’Connor - Noble Prince

Mike Cattermole - Rudi Light/Noble Prince

Jim McGrath - Noble Prince

Paul Nicholls - Poquelin in good form the drier the ground the better. Big price and has an e/w chance.
PP- Love for Great Endeavour to win. Noble Prince has a great chance. Had a small op. Step up in trip just like in the Jewson.

Joe Tizzard - Riverside Theatre just coming right could be the horse he thought he would be last year. Seemed very keen on him.

Ruby Walsh - Rubi Light is vulnerable on good ground. Would love Quel Esprit to run. His choice is Albertas Run.

Barry Geraghty - It is a very open race and is keen on riverside Theatre.

Colm Murphy - Noble Prince providing the ground is good as well as Somersby.

Donn McClean - If ground is soft then Rubi Light, if ground is good, the Noble Prince.

Paddy Power - Somersby.

Ted Walsh jr keen on Somersby but Damien McElroy strongly against the horse who is the proverbial bridesmaid in these events, or words to that affect. Kevin O’Ryan, Somersby and Great Endeavour with Tony Martin favouring Riverside Theatre.

can't believe people are tipping Albertas Run

Ignoring the fact that he hasn't had any prep which in itself is a major negative, in the last 10 years 202 11 year olds have run at the Festival and only 2 of them have managed to win. Those are not the kinds of stats I like taking on

Out of interest judo how many of the 202 runners were coming to the festival seeking their 3rd win on the bounce at the festival and their 4th overall?

As a point of interest I picked up the Weekender Cheltenham supplement the other day to read on the journey in and out of London. In that every race was analysed by 7 'experts' and there were only two races that had 7 different 'tips' - the County Hurdle and this race which just shows how open it is.

Of course that in itself means that GE may not have find much improvement at all to win. By the same token with his proven Festival form, his odds make AR a very reasonable e/w bet

Rubi Light drifted to fourth fav now behind Somersby.  Out to 8.6, possibly ground related?

Layed off my stake a couple of days ago for a nice free bet but would still like him to run

Riverside Theatre (5) , Noble Prince (6) , Rubi Light (13/2) , Medermit (7) , Somersby (7) , Albertas Run (9) , Great Endeavour (12) , Captain Chris (16) , Poquelin (16) , Realt Dubh (20) , Blazing Tempo (25) , Kalahari King (25) , Kauto Stone (25) , Little Josh (28) , Forpadydeplasterer (33) , Tartak (66) , Roi Du Mee (100)