~#~ *TRENDS* / *STATS* ~#~

(© RACECALLER) - Tks


Starting with Queen Mother Champion Chase.



Sizing Europe & Big Zeb led in an Irish 1-2-3-4 last year and that pair will do battle in this again.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 2-3-9
7yo: 1-1-10
8yo: 2-3-27
9yo: 3-5-28
10yo: 0-7-15
11yo+: 1-1-11

Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 4-4-20. (all 4 winners were French bred)
Horses aged 8+ have a combined record of 6-16-81. (all 6 winners were Irish-bred)
Moscow Flyer has been the only winner in the last 10 runnings to be aged over 9 (and the only winner aged over 10 in last 30 years)

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-9-43
French bred: 4-6-33
German bred: 0-3-6
British bred: 0-2-15
American bred: 0-0-3
NZ Bred: 0-0-1
French & Irish bred horses have won the last 10, though they did represent just over 75% of the total runners.
Most Irish bred runners don’t run in this until they are at least 8 but the continental 2-mile chasers seem to peak much younger:
French & German bred horses aged 5 to 7: 4-4-14
French & German bred horses aged 8 or older: 0-5-25

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chaser who had won an Arkle and previously finished in first 3 in a Queen Mother)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was 2nd in only previous grade 1)
7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, other fell on only previous course start)

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Defending Champion Chaser (Sizing Europe): 45U3542142 (1-3-10)
Previous season's Arkle winner (Captain Chris): 112121 (4-2-6)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 25 (0-1-2)
Highest placed Arkle Finisher to run in this: 112U13621 (4-3-9)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 1111
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous Champion chase, finishing 4F1F
Master Minded in 2008 (who was having his first season racing in Great Britain) and Newmill in 2006 (who benefitted from Kauto Star’s fall) were the only two winners not to have run in the Arkle or Champion Chase at the previous Festival.

Other races
Tingle Creek winner (Sizing Europe): 13U161P8 (3-1-8)
Tied Cottage Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 11414 (3-0-5)
Game Spirit Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 713146 (2-1-6)
Fortria Chase winner (Big Zeb): U1412 (2-1-5)
Previous season's Bord Na Mona Novice Chase winner (Realt Dubh): 61641 (2-0-5)
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Big Zeb): 214PF42 (1-2-7)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 12 (1-1-2)
Previous season's November Novice Chase winner (Ghizao): F1F3 (1-1-4)
Victor Chandler Chase winner (Somersby): 7271P8 (1-1-6)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Big Zeb): 61U6PF62 (1-1-8)
Previous season's Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 1 (1-0-1)
Ladbrokes.com Chase winner (Kauto Stone): 1 (1-0-1)
32Red H'cap Chase winner (Hold Fast): 4B19 (1-0-4)
Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 263 (0-2-3)
Normans Grove Chase winner (Blazing Tempo): 64 (0-0-2)
Hilly Way Chase winner: 6564 (0-0-4)
7 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing 1U21214
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase last time, finishing 1113
3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Game Spirit Chase last time, finishing 1U1
3 of 10 winners ran in the Melling chase, finishing 412
2 of 10 winners ran in the Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 13

Trainers
Unsurprisingly Paul Nicholls (3-4-20) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, including 2 of the last 4 with Master Minded.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-4) has saddled a winner and 2 places from 4 runners since 2002.
Colm Murphy (1-1-3) trained Big Zeb to win the race in 2010 and finish 2nd last year. Alan King (1-1-3) did the same with Voy Por Ustedes.
Henry De Bromhead (1-0-1) won it with Sizing Europe last year and will attempt to win it again with him.
Irish trained runners (5-6-28) have done really well in this lately, winning 5 of the last 10 from less than 28% of the total runners. The first 2 home in 2010 and the first 4 home in 2011 were all trained in Ireland.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 5/1 or below
The 3 winners priced higher than 5/1 were all trained in Ireland.
Favourites (4-1-10) have taken 4 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.64.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8+
Won a graded chase on last completed outing
Run 2 to 4 times this season
Run at least 8 times over fences
2nd or 3rd season chaser (or a previous Arkle winner that placed in this before)
Won over at least 2M 1½F
Won a grade 1
Course winner
Won the 2011 Arkle winner or ran in this
Won the Game Spirit or Tied Cottage last time
Finished in the first 4 in the Tingle Creek
Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs or in Ireland