Cheltenham Festival
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l thought l had read somewhere that the Ascot Chase is a poor guide to festival winners so l have done some research on it. The stats go back to 1999 and l couldn't find any results for 2005 & 2006 so l presume it was abandonded.
ln the 11 races there have been 68 runners and of those 35 have gone onto race at the festival in that season. Of those 35 only Alberta's Run, who finished 2nd in the 2010 renewal, went onto festival glory in the Ryanair Chase.
9 runners dropped back to contest the Queen Mother finishing 3rd, 6th, F, F, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd & 5th.
10 runners stayed around this trip contesting the Ryanair/Cathcart finishing 3rd, 4th, 7th, 6th, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 11th, 8th & 7th.
4 runners went up in trip the Gold Cup finishing PU, 9th, 3rd & 2nd.
11 others dropped back into handicap company finishing 19th, 12th, UR, 8th, 11th, 7th, 3rd, 11th, 12th, 5th & 9th.
1 other runner dropped back into novice company to contest the Arkle and finished 8th.
There have been 5 winners of the Ascot Chase go onto run at the Festival and none have won. Teeton Mill was PU in the Gold Cup, Tiutchev fell in the Queen Mother, Monets Garden was 4th in the Ryanair, Kauto Star was 2nd in the Gold Cup and Voy Por Ustedes and was 2nd in the Ryanair. Monets Garden, Kauto Star and Voy Por Ustedes were all under 2/1 to win their races at the festival.
l can't explain why the runners from this race go on to be generally not good enough at the festival but it could be down to the fact that this race is only 4 weeks before the festival and takes an edge of the horses. Whatever the reason is l personally tred carefully with runners from this race.
ln the 11 races there have been 68 runners and of those 35 have gone onto race at the festival in that season. Of those 35 only Alberta's Run, who finished 2nd in the 2010 renewal, went onto festival glory in the Ryanair Chase.
9 runners dropped back to contest the Queen Mother finishing 3rd, 6th, F, F, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd & 5th.
10 runners stayed around this trip contesting the Ryanair/Cathcart finishing 3rd, 4th, 7th, 6th, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 11th, 8th & 7th.
4 runners went up in trip the Gold Cup finishing PU, 9th, 3rd & 2nd.
11 others dropped back into handicap company finishing 19th, 12th, UR, 8th, 11th, 7th, 3rd, 11th, 12th, 5th & 9th.
1 other runner dropped back into novice company to contest the Arkle and finished 8th.
There have been 5 winners of the Ascot Chase go onto run at the Festival and none have won. Teeton Mill was PU in the Gold Cup, Tiutchev fell in the Queen Mother, Monets Garden was 4th in the Ryanair, Kauto Star was 2nd in the Gold Cup and Voy Por Ustedes and was 2nd in the Ryanair. Monets Garden, Kauto Star and Voy Por Ustedes were all under 2/1 to win their races at the festival.
l can't explain why the runners from this race go on to be generally not good enough at the festival but it could be down to the fact that this race is only 4 weeks before the festival and takes an edge of the horses. Whatever the reason is l personally tred carefully with runners from this race.
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good write up pal...yes I have to say I have been steering clear for a long time...tough race and a grade 1 so good horses go for it...time will tell whether this years renewal will have a bearing at cheltenham but medermit certainly had a hard race...
Cheers Harry, l was interested in Medermit as l stated on the Ryanair thread l put up but l am less so now after yesterday as like you said he had a hard race and his price has also been cut. Himself and Great Endeavour where a similar price prior to yesterday and l thought Great Endeavour has more scope for progress out of the two and given their respective prices now l would have to side with him. l fear l may have to get involved before Tuesday as this is the Pricewise race this week.
yes well am quite keen on great endeavour myself but race just looks brutally competitive which has left me less confident...I don't think the market is going to change massively to be honest as still see them all turning up...with regret a proper cavalry charge awaits...whatever segal tips up will be backed and good luck to them...I will wait now myself for reasons I said earlier...couldn't care less if I miss a couple of points it is brutal on a betting front,
I was told that lepoardstown in ireland is a very good pointer as to weather horses will go well at cheltenham
lnteresting that Sportingbet have push out Riverside Theatre for the Ryanair, Mick Fitz is their racing ambassador who still has links to the Henderson yard.
If they've pushed the price out it probably meaans Mick Fitz has tipped it.
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