Horses over 20-1 you fancy for the festival.

I quite like TANGO DE JUILLEY for the Fred Winter. I have already backed at 25/1 but not totally sure he is a runner. When confirmed he is a runner i'll back again.

Seriously cant believe he is 5 times the odds of the Fav who is 5lb worse off for l.5 lengths win.

moon dice for the county hurdle and the pipe brookshaw thing in the grand annual. fell at aintree grand national meeting last year when going well.name escapes me at the moment

Has Vendor been given a handicap mark yet?...that price on BF just seems the height of lunacy to me (reminiscent of the plunge on David Walliams to be Sports Personality of the Year :))with no weights even published yet - could even end up being close to top weight

Tango doesnt seem harshly treated on 127 but will be interested to see what price the stable's Kapga Du Cerisy gets after yesterdays's win which looked more comfortable than the winning margin would suggest

LEOS LUCKY STAR

If Flat Out makes it to the festival, he is on a very good hurdles mark for the County Hurdle.  He's been taken out of the Champ Chase, Ryanair and world Hurdle and is only left in the County.

Just behind Oscar Whisky in the Supreme on his second ever hurdles run is excellent form.

Wouldn't back him antepost though, but when bookies go NRNB i'll go in.

Deal Done for the Kim Muir.Ridden far too aggressively in last years race.If ridden more patiently definitely worth an interest.

Overturn looks way overpriced.

In the Ryanair, any of Kalahari king, Realt Dubh and Forpadydeplasterer.

I can see where the OP is coming from with Weird Al - he should be 3rd or 4th fav on form IMO.

I still think Kalahari King (if he shows up) can win the Ryanair, failed by a length last year having to go round half the field up the run in, Spring ground and warmer weather changes everything with this horse

Rod, I think I heard King say his mark is 129 and "he'll never get to run off 129 again".

Vendor was given a mark of 122 - and was put up a further 7lbs by the hcapper for standing in his box! Go figure - has a mark of 129

cheers - no wonder he's going for this race then!

Yup and Tango is 134. Conceded Vendor 10lb at Newbury.

Also tried a small punt on Weird Al. A good age and not a lot of miles on the clock, and his form offers hope. I hope the King wins but I have a nagging feeling that a long shot could take it, and Weird Al is my attempt.

Feb 19, 2012 -- 7:39AM, wellchief wrote:

If Flat Out makes it to the festival, he is on a very good hurdles mark for the County Hurdle.  He's been taken out of the Champ Chase, Ryanair and world Hurdle and is only left in the County.Just behind Oscar Whisky in the Supreme on his second ever hurdles run is excellent form.Wouldn't back him antepost though, but when bookies go NRNB i'll go in.

I thought the entries aren't out until next week?

Hanidcap entries are out in the middle of this week (it's the weights the following week I think).

King Fontaine at huge prices in Festival Handicap Chase on first day

Should have said the only race he's priced up in sorry.

As I said I'd wait for NRNB though.

Salut Flo Byrne Group Plate 20/1

Travelling like a dream lto till a horrid mistake stopped him to a walk, jumped great up to that and off the same mark would have massive claims i reckon

Jetson 20/1

Four Commanders - The 4 miler
Lambro - RSA
Medermit - Gold Cup

Prince Erik ew in Pertemps

Olofi for the County Hurdle @ 25/1.

^ is he really 25/1 ? Holy moley will have to have some of that.

chaps .. DO NOT back Tango De Juilley. Trainer just emailed me back and says he wont be running at the Festival.

thanks sintonian. i was going to back that tonight after i found out he wasonly beaten 1 1/2l by vendor giving him 10lb.

buena vista going for the hatrick for pertemps handicap hufdle

i know buena vista always peaks at the festival but he hasn't run 1 race with any promise. like loch derg this season i think all the tough races have finally taken there toll.

am not trying to be wise but is that not the idea giggsy?should get same w8t as last year and its forms similar to last year .a thot it ran well enuf for a long way on friday

Over the past 20 years I have managed to pick plenty of longshots at Cheltenham:)

This year the interesting longshots are yet to emerge from the handicaps, but here are the ones that interest me:

1) Kings Fontaine for the 3 mile chase on Tuesday (85/1 on betfair) or ideally the KIM MUIR (no price). This one is crying out for better ground and is ridiculously well handicapped. He is also the Whitbread winner in waiting.

2) Fists of Fury: 4m NH Chase (13.5 on betfair). Is Davy Russells nap of Cheltenham. He knows the Giggistown horses best and they should have a great Cheltenham this year, they have so many good horses this year. His form is good and Davy must feel he will improve for the 4 miles. Thats good enough for me in a difficult race.

3) Daves Dream for the Grand Annual (27/1 on Betfair): Nicky has a great record in his Dad's race. Dave is best on good ground over 2 miles. He will have been saved for this after flopping over the 2m 5f Paddy Power.

4) My Flora - (12.5/1 on Betfair) Foxhunters - has a turn of foot at the end of his races, he ran below expectations behind Chapturgeon, but a change to waiting tactics will make the difference at Cheltenham.

5) Shot From the Hip: Centenary Chase  (27/1 on Betfair)- if he gets a UK mark of 139/140 and sneaks in the Centenary Chase,  then this one will take a lot of beating!! Ran cosy 4th last time out in the JP Moriaty and is my bet of the Fesitval if he gets in! A JP plot horse!! Will go off FAV if he gets in.

6) Vonder - Fred Winter: ( Only a miserly 5.40 very well handicapped, King is due a win in this. I like his obvious chance.

Giggsy, Buena Vista has had appalling looking form going in to the Festival each of the last 3 years:
2011 728700
2010 8508
2009 0006

he's come 1st (twice) and second of 133, 133 and 138. This year he'll be on no more than 143.

I think he's a great bet of you can still get on at 20s.

if he wins them i'll be the 1st one to say that i'm wrong but i just get the feeling watching him this year that he has fallen out of love with the game.

Pertemps - Barwell Bridge
Coral Cup - Act of Kalanisi

Catch Me in the Pertemps

plan A and olofi in the county

Salut Flo for the old Mildmay of Flete

I agree Shot From The Hip could be a live one in the novices handicap if the handicapper rates him on his actual form and forgets he's Irish

for me shot from the hip doesn't jump anywhere near good enough for Cheltenham especially in a big field.

If they can find a cakewalk PTP for Barbers Shop to qualify the 20/1 with Hills for the Foxhunter is far too big

Other than a nice win at Newbury and the bullishness from the trainer, what else is there to say Vendor is a 5/1 chance please ? I'd be gobsmacked if he is any shorter on the day. Appaling ante-post value, more a day of the race price.

Allure Of Illusion @46 in the Supreme has a nice profile for the race.

BJG
19 Feb 12 13:59

Vendor was given a mark of 122 - and was put up a further 7lbs by the hcapper for standing in his box! Go figure


Acc. to RPost, Tango DJ was rated 127 before running 4th in Grade 2 lto, so it would seem hcpper has rated that an improved effort and gone back and put up Newbury race a commensurate amount. Simples!

Was hoping Salut Flo might go for Grand Annual instead of MoF...think he's got a lot of speed, that horse


Good luck with King Fontaine- he'll pop up somewhere off current mk but be v surprised if it's Chelt given his poor jumping

What is it with this Giggsy? The topic of this thread is what 20-1 shot do you FANCY? Not to put down peoples selections.If he isnt going to put up 1 that he actually fancies then S.T.F.U.

whats everyones thoughts on sailors warn 33s in county ran well in big handicaps recently?ran to free but well enuf in last years triumph.

i fancy Your Busy in the 4miler.He ran at chelt in oct over 3 miles and was way out the back under ruby and kept staying on up the hill to finish 2nd. 50-1 at the mo,he may not be a definate runner but if he is i will be on and i hope ruby will ride again. watch the oct race back and he stands out a mile

Ruby can't ride mate, it's an amateurs race

oh yeah course it is. my mistake.thanks for the point out. still could be a great ew bet

Have I mentioned Sonofvic in the Pertemps

CCM ~ what about your horse in the same race?  Is that the plan?

These threads can be punting suicide - every bu**er flags up something well handicapped and before you know it your 20-1 value poke is trading at 12s with three weeks to go.

Keep it quiet IMO!

yes I fancy loads in the handicaps but am not telling

No longer involved with the horse Harvey.... But think it is!

ok thanks, noticed some money for it 2day (thought it might be your's )

Nice to have a view on the handicaps but most of these races are decided by marginal distances so every pound is crucial, therefore going out on a limb before the weights are announced I don't get.
Also so many are multi entered these days much of the value has been removed from the ante post market because of the increased risk...

Wedger Pardy in the Cross Country. I think it led most of the field down the wrong course last time. I'm sure that won't happen again!

therefore going out on a limb before the weights are announced I don't get.


with the English horses at least, we know what mark they are currently on, so the weights arent going to come as a surprise!

Might take a small punt on Olofi in the County, as pointed out by Undertaker.

I thought he would have been raised in the weights, but is on the same mark as his run behind Zarkandar.

Zarkandar, Get Me Out of Here and Raya Star have all been raised, and Sire de Grugy who finished just ahead of him, won at Taunton yesterday.

Taking a risk that he'll line up, but 25/1 is too big a price to turn down.  Been clipped in to 16 and 14 with the others who have priced the market up.

alasi if she runs in the jewson handles the track,tough,improver and recieving 7lbs mares allowance

Salut Flo 10/1 from 20/1 in the Festival Plate

Exactly my point earlier in this thread! Keep your smart info quiet ffs!

Pipe had a Press day and blabbed....dont think it was forum money!

Went round the shops and got a chunk on Olofi for the County at 25s. Huge.

Wat duncan sayed

Olofi now into 20's.

I think it was the weight of my fiver each way that tipped them over the edge

Moon Dice 20/1  - County Hurdle - Paddy Power Get On

penny max 20-1 festival handicap chase

Orsippus - Coral Cup - placed at last two festivals and tuning up again nicely from what I saw in his Kelso prep

Dylan Ross for the Supreme; travels beautifully in his races and has decent form behind some very good horses. Prospect Wells in the same race is value at his price.

Tenor Nivernais 22 on here for Martin Pipe HDL.

what site can u watch horse racing on

Tidal Bay is 100/1 for the Gold Cup with one firm at the Festival, way overpriced when you consider Midnight Chase is 12/1 and only beat him 2 1/4 lengths in the Argento.

He'll be a good trading opportunity Peddlers as money always seems to come for him on the day of race. I guess the price is because he threw in such a shocker at Newbury lto.

Celestial Halo seems similar - 250 on here last time I looked and very likley to run in the Champion Hurdle (i.e. no other target). surely a horse that's come 2nd and 4th before won't go off at that price even if it's an unlikely winner.

Darroun in the Triumph

Stront - is CH definitely going to Cheltenham? I'd like to see him there taking Overturn on up front, and surely the Nicholls pair would appreciate that, but that kind of price makes me think they'll wait for the 2 1/2 miler at Aintree.

any ideas on the Kim Muir Chase

Johsnfort I think Tullintain is a very big price NRNB at 20/1 with 365.

He's come second in two good handicap chases in Ireland (both at 12/1) his last two runs. First time behind Seabass, who has gone in twice since, and then behind On His Own who is very well thought off.

He's also entered in the Will Hill and interestingly 365 are ducking him there (16/1 NRNB compared to 33/1 top price), whereas, here I think they may have forgotten to (20/1 NRNB compared to top price 25/1), as it doesn't make sense to duck him in one race but not the other over a similar distance.

No idea if he will run, but if he does he won't be 20/1 on the day, so I have had a small bet.

ACS - I've seen 3 or 4 different reports of Nicholls saying CH will run in the Champion Hurdle. I guess part of the price is because he was found to beone of the coughers after the Kingwell. Plans also change of course.

Peddlers, I think Tidal Bay was in receipt of 6lb in the Argento.

Tory.Darroun 20/1 in to 12/1 with Lads.Looks like a runner.

ow that we have nr nb about,i like the look of maringo bay in the 4 miler 25,s lads nr nb(42bf and 33billys).Has been behind some good horses and is lightly raced.The stats men will probably shoot me down in flames.Good luck all!

Our Mick - JLT Handicap
Magnifique Etiole - County
Lambro - RSA

All over priced imv.

Tenor Nivernais.... Entered in 3 races.. Hope it goes in the Coral Cup and T Murphy Rides.

Viva Colonia in the County hurdle..33/1 with Billy Hill.. Fantastic Each way bet IMO

the yomper - have looked at this one closely myself but ground might not suit?

My big fancy at a price is Walkon at 33s in the RSA.

He is rated within a few pounds of the big boys in this and looks to be a fairly sound jumper. Admittedly he must bounce back from a disappointing run last time but he has twice run well at the Festival (nearly won a Triumph a few years back) and, more importantly, has been crying out for this step up to three miles.

I think he will be a major player in what might well turn into a weak race. If Grands Crus were to miss out (and many don't fancy him anyway), we'd be left with Bobs Worth as favourite. He is hugely beatable but the strength in depth is not really there in my opinion. The likes of Join Together, First Lieutenant and Invictus are probably not good enough, and I'd fancy Walkon to beat any of them.

33/1 is a mental price!

Shannon Spray joined:28 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 60 | Blogger: ShannonSpray's blog
Wedger Pardy in the Cross Country. I think it led most of the field down the wrong course last time. I'm sure that won't happen again!


not a bad call at all Shannon, better than a lot of the dross picks on this thread

BJG
19 Feb 12 18:19
Joined:
20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 23,535 | Blogger: BJG's blog
Salut Flo Byrne Group Plate 20/1 Cool

Travelling like a dream lto till a horrid mistake stopped him to a walk, jumped great up to that and off the same mark would have massive claims i reckon

wd mate, hope you cleaned up