Cheltenham Festival
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quite keen on weird al in gold cup as think 21's are a good punt.
What bigger priced ones do you like?
What bigger priced ones do you like?
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I quite like TANGO DE JUILLEY for the Fred Winter. I have already backed at 25/1 but not totally sure he is a runner. When confirmed he is a runner i'll back again.
Seriously cant believe he is 5 times the odds of the Fav who is 5lb worse off for l.5 lengths win. |
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moon dice for the county hurdle and the pipe brookshaw thing in the grand annual. fell at aintree grand national meeting last year when going well.name escapes me at the moment
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Has Vendor been given a handicap mark yet?...that price on BF just seems the height of lunacy to me (reminiscent of the plunge on David Walliams to be Sports Personality of the Year :))with no weights even published yet - could even end up being close to top weight
Tango doesnt seem harshly treated on 127 but will be interested to see what price the stable's Kapga Du Cerisy gets after yesterdays's win which looked more comfortable than the winning margin would suggest |
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LEOS LUCKY STAR
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If Flat Out makes it to the festival, he is on a very good hurdles mark for the County Hurdle. He's been taken out of the Champ Chase, Ryanair and world Hurdle and is only left in the County.
Just behind Oscar Whisky in the Supreme on his second ever hurdles run is excellent form. Wouldn't back him antepost though, but when bookies go NRNB i'll go in. |
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Deal Done for the Kim Muir.Ridden far too aggressively in last years race.If ridden more patiently definitely worth an interest.
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Overturn looks way overpriced.
In the Ryanair, any of Kalahari king, Realt Dubh and Forpadydeplasterer. I can see where the OP is coming from with Weird Al - he should be 3rd or 4th fav on form IMO. |
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I still think Kalahari King (if he shows up) can win the Ryanair, failed by a length last year having to go round half the field up the run in, Spring ground and warmer weather changes everything with this horse
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Rod, I think I heard King say his mark is 129 and "he'll never get to run off 129 again".
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Vendor was given a mark of 122 - and was put up a further 7lbs by the hcapper for standing in his box! Go figure - has a mark of 129
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cheers - no wonder he's going for this race then!
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Yup and Tango is 134. Conceded Vendor 10lb at Newbury.
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Also tried a small punt on Weird Al. A good age and not a lot of miles on the clock, and his form offers hope. I hope the King wins but I have a nagging feeling that a long shot could take it, and Weird Al is my attempt.
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Hanidcap entries are out in the middle of this week (it's the weights the following week I think).
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King Fontaine at huge prices in Festival Handicap Chase on first day
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Should have said the only race he's priced up in sorry.
As I said I'd wait for NRNB though. |
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Salut Flo Byrne Group Plate 20/1
 Travelling like a dream lto till a horrid mistake stopped him to a walk, jumped great up to that and off the same mark would have massive claims i reckon |
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Jetson 20/1
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Four Commanders - The 4 miler
Lambro - RSA Medermit - Gold Cup |
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Prince Erik ew in Pertemps
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Olofi for the County Hurdle @ 25/1.
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^ is he really 25/1 ? Holy moley will have to have some of that.
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chaps .. DO NOT back Tango De Juilley. Trainer just emailed me back and says he wont be running at the Festival.
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thanks sintonian. i was going to back that tonight after i found out he wasonly beaten 1 1/2l by vendor giving him 10lb.
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buena vista going for the hatrick for pertemps handicap hufdle
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i know buena vista always peaks at the festival but he hasn't run 1 race with any promise. like loch derg this season i think all the tough races have finally taken there toll.
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am not trying to be wise but is that not the idea giggsy?should get same w8t as last year and its forms similar to last year .a thot it ran well enuf for a long way on friday
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Over the past 20 years I have managed to pick plenty of longshots at Cheltenham:)
This year the interesting longshots are yet to emerge from the handicaps, but here are the ones that interest me: 1) Kings Fontaine for the 3 mile chase on Tuesday (85/1 on betfair) or ideally the KIM MUIR (no price). This one is crying out for better ground and is ridiculously well handicapped. He is also the Whitbread winner in waiting. 2) Fists of Fury: 4m NH Chase (13.5 on betfair). Is Davy Russells nap of Cheltenham. He knows the Giggistown horses best and they should have a great Cheltenham this year, they have so many good horses this year. His form is good and Davy must feel he will improve for the 4 miles. Thats good enough for me in a difficult race. 3) Daves Dream for the Grand Annual (27/1 on Betfair): Nicky has a great record in his Dad's race. Dave is best on good ground over 2 miles. He will have been saved for this after flopping over the 2m 5f Paddy Power. 4) My Flora - (12.5/1 on Betfair) Foxhunters - has a turn of foot at the end of his races, he ran below expectations behind Chapturgeon, but a change to waiting tactics will make the difference at Cheltenham. 5) Shot From the Hip: Centenary Chase (27/1 on Betfair)- if he gets a UK mark of 139/140 and sneaks in the Centenary Chase, then this one will take a lot of beating!! Ran cosy 4th last time out in the JP Moriaty and is my bet of the Fesitval if he gets in! A JP plot horse!! Will go off FAV if he gets in. 6) Vonder - Fred Winter: ( Only a miserly 5.40 very well handicapped, King is due a win in this. I like his obvious chance. |
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Giggsy, Buena Vista has had appalling looking form going in to the Festival each of the last 3 years:
2011 728700 2010 8508 2009 0006 he's come 1st (twice) and second of 133, 133 and 138. This year he'll be on no more than 143. I think he's a great bet of you can still get on at 20s. |
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if he wins them i'll be the 1st one to say that i'm wrong but i just get the feeling watching him this year that he has fallen out of love with the game.
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Pertemps - Barwell Bridge
Coral Cup - Act of Kalanisi |
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Catch Me in the Pertemps
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plan A and olofi in the county
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Salut Flo for the old Mildmay of Flete
I agree Shot From The Hip could be a live one in the novices handicap if the handicapper rates him on his actual form and forgets he's Irish |
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for me shot from the hip doesn't jump anywhere near good enough for Cheltenham especially in a big field.
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If they can find a cakewalk PTP for Barbers Shop to qualify the 20/1 with Hills for the Foxhunter is far too big
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Other than a nice win at Newbury and the bullishness from the trainer, what else is there to say Vendor is a 5/1 chance please ? I'd be gobsmacked if he is any shorter on the day. Appaling ante-post value, more a day of the race price.
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Allure Of Illusion @46 in the Supreme has a nice profile for the race.
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