Cheltenham Festival
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With so much top-class racing this week/weekend it is hardly surprising the win of this one seems to have been largely glossed over. I must admit I was very taken with his performance. Hazy Tom clearly ran below-par - he pulled like a beast throughout and then dropped out tamely, but the winner has butchered his field pretty clinically.
The overall balance of his form suggests he has beaten nothing of note, and as such, I'm wary of getting carried away. On the flip side, he has basically not been mentioned by anyone for the Festival, despite being unbeaten (and easily so) and having entries in the Supreme and the Triumph.
Am just wondering whether he could run a big race in either, and am tempted to have a little tickle at 33s or so on here for the Supreme. As we all know, this race seems to be relatively weak at present (and certainly hard to get a handle on) and Balder Succes beat older horses hands down yesterday. Admittedly King has Montbazon for the Supreme but he also has Grumeti for the Triumph, and there are often one or two four-year-olds that run against their elders in the opener. This one seems to appreciate a bit of cut, too, which would suggest the Supreme might be an option.
The overall balance of his form suggests he has beaten nothing of note, and as such, I'm wary of getting carried away. On the flip side, he has basically not been mentioned by anyone for the Festival, despite being unbeaten (and easily so) and having entries in the Supreme and the Triumph.
Am just wondering whether he could run a big race in either, and am tempted to have a little tickle at 33s or so on here for the Supreme. As we all know, this race seems to be relatively weak at present (and certainly hard to get a handle on) and Balder Succes beat older horses hands down yesterday. Admittedly King has Montbazon for the Supreme but he also has Grumeti for the Triumph, and there are often one or two four-year-olds that run against their elders in the opener. This one seems to appreciate a bit of cut, too, which would suggest the Supreme might be an option.
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Was looking through the fields of both races last night, and this is one im keen on. Would think it would go for the triumph, but who knows?
Alan added Balder Succes to his Cheltenham team after the four-year-old had laughed at older horses in the novice hurdle at Ascot, producing a great display of slick, fast jumping.
“He will have to go now,” observed Alan, adding: “He is a lovely horse and was very good there, but whether we go for the Triumph or take on his seniors again in the Supreme Novices’ we will decide nearer the time.”
Have had a little tickle in the Supreme as I feel ground and his experience against older horses will sway them that way.
“He will have to go now,” observed Alan, adding: “He is a lovely horse and was very good there, but whether we go for the Triumph or take on his seniors again in the Supreme Novices’ we will decide nearer the time.”
Have had a little tickle in the Supreme as I feel ground and his experience against older horses will sway them that way.
Like this too Tom, though as you say the principals were patently well below their best. Is it 8lb allowance the 4yos get? Could be decent, remember Binocular going close in the supreme as a 4yo
Yeah - he'd get 8lb Workforce.
Four-year-olds do not have the most amazing record as you'd expect but Binocular went very close, Hors La Loi bolted up, and even the likes of Torphichen were not embarrassed.
It's just an interesting proposition because the race looks weaker than normal. You'd have to feel Bincoular would have beaten this field as a 4 year-old with something in hand.
Balder is very hard to rate because his opposition yesterday appeared to run way below form, but it was his hurdling and the way he travelled through the race that grabbed me. Hazy Tom was beaten a long way out - he definitely pulled too hard but this thing absolutely mullered him and just kept galloping off the turn. Could have won by 20 if he'd wanted to, which bodes well, as it certainly looks like he has plenty of stamina as well as speed.
Go on Kingy, get him in the Supreme. You'll win the Triumph with Grumeti anyway
Four-year-olds do not have the most amazing record as you'd expect but Binocular went very close, Hors La Loi bolted up, and even the likes of Torphichen were not embarrassed.
It's just an interesting proposition because the race looks weaker than normal. You'd have to feel Bincoular would have beaten this field as a 4 year-old with something in hand.
Balder is very hard to rate because his opposition yesterday appeared to run way below form, but it was his hurdling and the way he travelled through the race that grabbed me. Hazy Tom was beaten a long way out - he definitely pulled too hard but this thing absolutely mullered him and just kept galloping off the turn. Could have won by 20 if he'd wanted to, which bodes well, as it certainly looks like he has plenty of stamina as well as speed.
Go on Kingy, get him in the Supreme. You'll win the Triumph with Grumeti anyway
Agree it's a weak year, be interesting to see who Thornton chose, but i wouldn't mind at all having Hutchenson on board. In the event that he's upwards of 20s on the day I'd be tempted to have an EW investment
Been very impressed with this horse this season,improving all the time,Supreme looks a weak race this season,so if i were them id take that option
Agreed with both - Hutchinson would be a perfectly able substitute for me.
I backed him for the Triumph straight after yesterday's race at 40s, not for much mind. Hoping he goes there obviously, although he did look more of a supreme horse.
the only thing is the Supreme is not a race for 4yos really and the Triumph is a horrible race for the future of the horse
It's a tough call as King has good chances in both. At least one of us should get a run for our money at 40s!
The ground just tips the Supreme in favour for me. It's probably a harder race to win, but then this year's looks weaker than normal. Pot luck I'd say, but think he will be a lively outsider in either race. Love the way he travels and jumps.
The ground just tips the Supreme in favour for me. It's probably a harder race to win, but then this year's looks weaker than normal. Pot luck I'd say, but think he will be a lively outsider in either race. Love the way he travels and jumps.
yeah his jumping was particularly impressive, reminded me a bit of peddlers cross in his novice days
When Hutchinson was on the Morning line the other week, did he not mention it for the Fred Winter?
No I believe he mentioned Vendor who has apparently been laid out for Fred Winter.
This horse was obviously impressive and most people have pointed out the obvious, that being he beat very little. However, the majority appear to believe that the Supreme looks weak this year, why? I believe it's as open as ever, for sure, but weak? Not sure I could possibly draw that conclusion before the race has been run!
rated 147 after saturdays performance so rules out handicaps. really hope he goes triumph!
A mate of mine just said there is a King article in the Weekender or update and if the gun was put to his head now he would say Triumph, but no decision made.
Best of luck mate, but selfishly I'm hoping he goes Supreme!
Best of luck mate, but selfishly I'm hoping he goes Supreme!
i also hope he goes supreme,really like this horse
my worry is that he'd probably prefer cut, bit like the marsh warbler scenario last year. we'll see, he looks a real tool though. gl to all!
judorick
the only thing is the Supreme is not a race for 4yos really and the Triumph is a horrible race for the future of the horse
since the fred winter was introduced the standard and longevity of triumph runners has increased significantly - last years being the best example so far....4yo have quite a decent record in the supreme and i think most triumph winners (with the help of the allowance) would have gone close in the supreme...in fact it is the supreme which has a poor record over past few years with very few winners going on to better things with only brave inca of the last 10 winners reaching the top over hurdles although a few of these have decent novice chase records
2002 Like-a-Butterfly 8 Charlie Swan Christy Roche
2003 Back in Front 6 Norman Williamson Edward O'Grady
2004 Brave Inca 6 Barry Cash Colm Murphy
2005 Arcalis 5 Graham Lee Howard Johnson
2006 Noland 5 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2007 Ebaziyan 6 Davy Condon Willie Mullins
2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 Robert Thornton Eddie Harty
2009 Go Native 6 Paul Carberry Noel Meade
2010 Menorah 5 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs
2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
the only thing is the Supreme is not a race for 4yos really and the Triumph is a horrible race for the future of the horse
since the fred winter was introduced the standard and longevity of triumph runners has increased significantly - last years being the best example so far....4yo have quite a decent record in the supreme and i think most triumph winners (with the help of the allowance) would have gone close in the supreme...in fact it is the supreme which has a poor record over past few years with very few winners going on to better things with only brave inca of the last 10 winners reaching the top over hurdles although a few of these have decent novice chase records
2002 Like-a-Butterfly 8 Charlie Swan Christy Roche
2003 Back in Front 6 Norman Williamson Edward O'Grady
2004 Brave Inca 6 Barry Cash Colm Murphy
2005 Arcalis 5 Graham Lee Howard Johnson
2006 Noland 5 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2007 Ebaziyan 6 Davy Condon Willie Mullins
2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 Robert Thornton Eddie Harty
2009 Go Native 6 Paul Carberry Noel Meade
2010 Menorah 5 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs
2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
Oh no - tipped up for the Supreme by none other than Graeme 'G-Rod' Rodway on the Post site 
Tom, been very busy so not got time for a fuller post, but good thread and overview. I was more than taken with him at Ascot, a nice horse and a gorgeous looker.
46's on here for SN, 16's for Triumph - Triumph bound ?
a think grumeti and balder will go for triumph thornton will pick grumeti and hutchison will finish in front of him on balder
I think he is a nice horse but wouldn't consider him a cheltenham horse myself, not at this stage of his career anyway...he does display an action to me and wouldn't know how he will handle better ground at cheltenham....I can see why they didn't want to take him before saturday as looks very unfurnished...if they go, good luck to them, but he makes no appeal to me whichever race he contends...also not sure what saturdays form is worth as hazy tom ran like a drain and the second horse just looks average...yes did it on the snaffle on ground he liked...who knows but not for me, he would be like backing a bingo horse especially at the current odds...
harry,hes won on good to soft already,if he's not ready i very much doubt connections would bother running him.
listen snaff maybe I'm being a tad brutal but he is 12-1 for the triumph on the back of 2 races at ascot, 1 a 3 runner race that I perceive to be worthless form at this time...that ground was soft by the time he ran pal and with tom running like a drain and the second wanting 2 and 1/2 miles I actually cannot weigh up what he has achieved...yes he looks a nice type for the future but thats all for me at this time...he may win and everyone will be right but he makes no appeal at that price to me...
Still think the Supreme is his race. Maybe Minsk will snaff up on Saturday and Kingy will do the decent thing and whack this one in the opener on the Tuesday.
What I like about him, apart from his hurdling, is that he is winning his races with a huge amount in hand, but he doesn't strike me as a bridle horse. Whereas the likes of Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre travel so powerfully, I wouldn't necessarily know how much is left in their respective tanks, but this lad looks as though he wants to race harder rather than just cruise round on the bit.
Total conjecture as I said earlier as there is no knowing what the true value of his form is, but he just looks to me like a horse with a lot, lot more to give by the way he has finished his races off. Also, ratings mean relatively little to me, but it has to be of interest that he has been given 147, which, I think I'm right in saying, would have him top-rated or nearly top-rated in the Supreme, which is why I snapped up the 40-1.
What I like about him, apart from his hurdling, is that he is winning his races with a huge amount in hand, but he doesn't strike me as a bridle horse. Whereas the likes of Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre travel so powerfully, I wouldn't necessarily know how much is left in their respective tanks, but this lad looks as though he wants to race harder rather than just cruise round on the bit.
Total conjecture as I said earlier as there is no knowing what the true value of his form is, but he just looks to me like a horse with a lot, lot more to give by the way he has finished his races off. Also, ratings mean relatively little to me, but it has to be of interest that he has been given 147, which, I think I'm right in saying, would have him top-rated or nearly top-rated in the Supreme, which is why I snapped up the 40-1.
Well tom as always fair comments...and yes he looks like a horse full of potential but just potential as his form is worthless for me... and you rightly thought 40's was way to big for the supreme and worth a poke but ask yourself would you take the anorexic 12's for the triumph??
handicapper has taken no chances by the way, i had him at 135+
I wouldn't know where to begin trying to handicap that but I guess I'd split the difference and say something like 140-141 looks fair enough.
I wouldn't be overly tempted by 12s for the Triumph, as I actually think that race could be the stronger of the two. It seems every man and his dog is smashing into Minsk the wonderbeast, whereas there are three or four others (including stablemate Grumeti) that look very decent indeed and have lots of potential for further improvement.
If Simonsig goes to the Neptune I'm really not sure that there is a star in that Supreme field, which, with the ground likely to ride softer on day one, would push me to go that way with him, People can and will always argue the point, but some horses mature way quicker than others and getting 8lb in the Supreme looks pretty fair to me if you have a smart horse that stays, travels and jumps.
I wouldn't be overly tempted by 12s for the Triumph, as I actually think that race could be the stronger of the two. It seems every man and his dog is smashing into Minsk the wonderbeast, whereas there are three or four others (including stablemate Grumeti) that look very decent indeed and have lots of potential for further improvement.
If Simonsig goes to the Neptune I'm really not sure that there is a star in that Supreme field, which, with the ground likely to ride softer on day one, would push me to go that way with him, People can and will always argue the point, but some horses mature way quicker than others and getting 8lb in the Supreme looks pretty fair to me if you have a smart horse that stays, travels and jumps.
yes fair play and you maybe right...definitely a horse to keep an eye on for sure...but needs to get some form in the book before i would be interested in him in a 20 runner championship race...
It is funny how sometimes you just feel compelled to go against your better punting instincts. I do agree with what you say - on paper he doesn't fit any of the trends I usually look for in a Festival novice and I have long since learned not to fall in love with every smooth winner that "could be anything". There is just something about him that I really like, but he might well be a total no-show in either race.
Time will tell! I have had a very up and down record in the Supreme (have had four winners since 2000 but the others have not been anywhere close)!
Time will tell! I have had a very up and down record in the Supreme (have had four winners since 2000 but the others have not been anywhere close)!
there's no shame in that tom
it's one of the hardest races
it's one of the hardest races
tom - horses that win and travel on the snaffle always appeal as they look classy and can see why he is liked, as looks like he could be anything...i can see why you think he is worth a poke at 40's as looks a tasty bit of value, i would have liked to see him on better ground, although if they confirmed him i could be forced to have a tiny tickle because at them odds he is worth the poke to find out...
Tom I agree with you about him not looking like a bridle horse. Go back to the Peddlers comparison again. Really intriguing horse this.
balder success
lto out beat a 2 and a half miler who stayed on takingly suggesting stamina bad holding ground
2 runs ago beat a horse who came out to finish 11th of 11 next time out 23 lengths on next outing
3 runs ago horse he beat came out to finish 5th of 5 beaten 21 lengths on next outing
i think he is a likeable horse despite this but it dont make good reading
lto out beat a 2 and a half miler who stayed on takingly suggesting stamina bad holding ground
2 runs ago beat a horse who came out to finish 11th of 11 next time out 23 lengths on next outing
3 runs ago horse he beat came out to finish 5th of 5 beaten 21 lengths on next outing
i think he is a likeable horse despite this but it dont make good reading
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