Cheltenham Festival
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17 Feb 12
20:38
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16 Mar 05
Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks.
They are all short priced favs. I really fancy the 4 of them but my head is telling me they won't all win. So to that end, I'm looking at it from another angle.
What could possibly beat them?
Hurricane Fly? Looked awesome lto at Leopardstown easily beating Oscars Well. However he only beat Peddlars Cross 1 1/2L last year. PC then went to Aintree and run a shocker. 2 non discript saunters round Bangor told us nothing but was severely put in his place by Sprinter Sacre on Boxing Day. Last years juveniles are looking good and HF has not really came up against them, tho he did give weight and a humping to Unaccompanied. Could any of the younger generation beat HF. I must say it is a distinct possibility.
Quevega? By far and away the best mare in training but could anything beat her? With Unaccompanied not going to the festival and, by all accounts VLV now heading to the World Hurdle, Quevega looks unstoppable. Can she get beat? NO
Sizing Europe? Arkle and last years QM winner. Stays this trip very well. Nothing to fear from Big Zeb, who well may be the chief danger again. The stats tell me that horses that can't win the Arkle won't come back the next year and win the QM. That, imo, puts a line through Finians Rainbow. SE has beat Somersby the last 2 years so no reason to think he will turn the tables now, especially the form that SE showed lto. Can anything beat Sizing Europe? NO
Big Bucks? Like Quevega has won this for the past 3 years and looks unstoppable. However he has never raced against Oscar Whisky. Will OW stay a demanding 3ml? We don't yet know but he may well do and if he does he could dethrone BB. So can Big Bucks get beat? Not likely but yes he could.
So of these 4 "Good things" I think Quevega & Sizing Europe will win but I would not risk the other 2
They are all short priced favs. I really fancy the 4 of them but my head is telling me they won't all win. So to that end, I'm looking at it from another angle.
What could possibly beat them?
Hurricane Fly? Looked awesome lto at Leopardstown easily beating Oscars Well. However he only beat Peddlars Cross 1 1/2L last year. PC then went to Aintree and run a shocker. 2 non discript saunters round Bangor told us nothing but was severely put in his place by Sprinter Sacre on Boxing Day. Last years juveniles are looking good and HF has not really came up against them, tho he did give weight and a humping to Unaccompanied. Could any of the younger generation beat HF. I must say it is a distinct possibility.
Quevega? By far and away the best mare in training but could anything beat her? With Unaccompanied not going to the festival and, by all accounts VLV now heading to the World Hurdle, Quevega looks unstoppable. Can she get beat? NO
Sizing Europe? Arkle and last years QM winner. Stays this trip very well. Nothing to fear from Big Zeb, who well may be the chief danger again. The stats tell me that horses that can't win the Arkle won't come back the next year and win the QM. That, imo, puts a line through Finians Rainbow. SE has beat Somersby the last 2 years so no reason to think he will turn the tables now, especially the form that SE showed lto. Can anything beat Sizing Europe? NO
Big Bucks? Like Quevega has won this for the past 3 years and looks unstoppable. However he has never raced against Oscar Whisky. Will OW stay a demanding 3ml? We don't yet know but he may well do and if he does he could dethrone BB. So can Big Bucks get beat? Not likely but yes he could.
So of these 4 "Good things" I think Quevega & Sizing Europe will win but I would not risk the other 2
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I think HF is the most vulnerable, but that probably says more about how bulletproof the other three are.
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Uncanny Willie, I was thinking about posting this and agree with your 2 selections. Backed them in a double. Would only worry about SE if Peddlers Cross takes his chance and he is at least entered.
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taking on fly and bucks,not taking on se and quevega though.
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good thread and think u have it right
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I think HF is the most vulnerable because he's the one in the competetive championship race. (Normally we might say the same about the QMCC but it seems a very weak renewal).
I wouldn't take on the other 3. In BB's case because he's (a) awesome and (b) only seems to have one decent opponent. |
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HF ' only beat PC by 1.5 lengths last year ' - wow , was that the unbeaten PC ? .
Quevega wins if turns up and it doesnt pi$$ down for 2 weeks to encourage VLV . Big Bucks - not totally sure how good OW is Sizing Europe - looks like the race is his for the taking as long as Sprinter Sacrce doesnt turn up which is v unlikely H Fly - I am a bit blinkered with this horse but obviously it is a race with a lot of good horses in it If someone offered me a free 5k bet on a single it would be hard to seperate the 4 - prob Quevega would get the vote |
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Agree with the post above from strontium
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HF did not settle in first half of the race and used up valuable energy - and still beat the unbeaten peddlers -
NAP of the meeting for me - if it settles better this thing will provide the biggst winning distance in the championship - events Up there with usain bolts 100m WR |
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A "2003 scenario" where all 4 win is not massively improbable imo. Would trigger enormous profits warnings from the big bookies as well, which would be fun.
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I'm getting a little concerned for Big Bucks tbh - of course he's the best horse in race but cant see what on earth will want to make it a decent pace in the race and it becoming a farce (unless Thousand Stars wants to make it a stamina test and becomes the sacrificial lamb). Oscar will surely be delayed as long as possible - Dynaste has had BB off the bridle both times he has quickened up this year so surely they will leave his charge until the home straight this time - there are so many others who would benefit from it becoming a 2 furlong sprint. Any chance Five Dream or King of the Night's connections could step in to be used for pace?
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Rod, I don't think you'll beat Big Buck's like that. Once he quickens he goes and he keeps going (and usually comes back on the bridle). The only way I can see even a speed horse beating him is by doing him on the line.
If Ruby thinks it's a slowly run race I imagine he'll take it up from 6 f out and make it a stamina testing sprint. I doubt very much any horse in the field can go fast for as long as Big Buck's. In short, if necessary, Big Buck's is good enough to make his own pace. |
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STRONTIUM ---
good post - i dont know how much more of this i can handle - i really do need sedatives  |
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Rod - If Paul Nicholls/Andy Stewart were concerned about lack of pace they could always use Celestial Halo for that. But in any case, I agree with Strontium; Ruby will just take it up 6f out if the pace is weak, and I don't see that being a problem for a horse of Big Buck's' quality.
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Fair enough chaps - as you say I'm sure Ruby will be alive to the situation and will have a back up plan. With Restless Harry's connections swerving the contest now it seemed the last natural front runner had left the building. I hope Big Bucks does win but I just wouldnt want to be ploughing in for the really short price now as I cant see stamina becoming an issue for some of the others the way the race is likely to be run (Celestial Halo not entered which would have sorted the issue)
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Sorry, meant to say CH would have to be supplemented, which I guess they would do if really worried about lack of pace.
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I think they probably made their decision on that when they took CH out last week.
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